ORAN
Kelly McLain Realtor
602.625.4653
mclainjk@aol.com www.kellymclain.com
Looking for an Investment Property? Call me regarding a new listing I have located in the Orange Tree town-home complex. Priced at $399,900 vacant and easy to show, give me a call. Inventory in the Orange Tree area increased approximately 20% over the past 60 days Until September we had seen extremely strong sales numbers for the Northeast Valley’s luxury single-family homes (over $500,000). Here are the comparisons with the year before:
Current Mortgage Rates Interest rates dominate every real estate conversation, and the Federal Reserve controls short-term interest rates. The year 2008 began with the Fed Funds rate at 4.25 percent. By the end of 2008, rates had dropped to 1 percent and, as the stock market bottomed in the first quarter of 2009, the Fed dropped rates to 0.00 to 0.25 percent, a rate not seen in a lifetime. Rising rates may explain why home prices are starting to fall in many markets around the country.
Mike Tompkins Sales Manager Mortgage Loan Originator
If you plan to be a seller soon, you may not wish to wait. If you are a buyer, you might want to act now before rates go even higher. Or you can hope that prices will fall enough to offset the rising cost of the money to pay for that new home.
Month
Sales
Year Earlier
Change
Dec. ‘17 Jan. ‘18
374
292
+28%
354
265
+34%
Feb. ‘18
336
268
+25%
March ‘18
549
454
+21%
April ‘18
504
426
+18%
May ‘18
590
504
+17%
June ‘18
534
504
+8%
July ‘18
438
352
+24%
Aug. ‘18
447
348
+28%
Sep. ‘18
314
338
-7%
7373 Scottsdale Road, Scottsdale, AZ 85253 | 480.308.0395 MEMBER FDIC | EQUAL HOUSING LENDER
Orange Tree Pool Service & Repairs Steve Sherman | 480-570-1117
Candis Creel Account Manager
602-697-0232
ccreel@atsaaz.com
We look forward to handling your next Escrow!
The under contract count on September 1 was down 2% from the year before, suggesting that year over year growth would stall. Now September 2018 had only 19 working days and thus a 5% disadvantage compared with September 2017. Adding that 5% to the 2% drop in under contract listings we get -7%, exactly the drop in sales during September. It does not always work this cleanly. What do we expect for October? Well the under contract count is almost identical to 2017 as of October 1, so we would anticipate roughly the same unit sales, adjusted for the number of working days. October 2018 has 23 working days compared with October 2017’s 22, so this will add 5% to our estimate. We should therefore expect a resumption of sales growth , but only 5%, unimpressive in the context of the last 10 months.
Lots of variables seem to be coming into play, higher interest rates are keeping owners in their home as it;s hard finding another home, some buyers are sitting on the fence waiting for values to come down, others are waiting for mid term elections, and the stock market has high volatility lately, all this adding up to uncertainty.
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NOVEMBER | DECEMBER 2018
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As we approach the end of the year I will be keeping an eye on inventory and come out with our 2019 forecast in my next issue.
Kelly McLain
ADDRESS
SQFT
BED BATH LIST PRICE
LIST PER SQFT
11001 N 60th St 6216 E Gold Dust Ave 6021 E Cortez Dr 11832 N Blackheath Rd 6216 E Via Estrella Ave 6242 E Laurel Ln 6229 E Gold Dust Ave 11002 N 64th St 11846 N 61st Pl 11636 N 60th St 11243 N Saint Andrews Wy 11810 N Blackheath Rd 6115 E Shangri LA Rd 5428 E Cholla St 5430 E Sahuaro Dr 11447 N 54th St 5201 E Oakhurst Wy 11820 N Blackheath Rd 5739 E Cactus Rd 10242 N 58th St 5937 E Larkspur Dr 5702 E Sandy Ln 12401 N 57th Wy 5948 E Windrose Dr 5440 E Dahlia Dr 12219 N 59th St 6345 E Gold Dust Ave 5948 E Aster Dr 6202 E Charter Oak Rd 5909 E Dahlia Dr 5234 E Cactus Rd 5901 E Windrose Dr 5537 E Wetherfield Rd 11431 N 56th St 5619 E Century Ln
7,200 5,586 5,231 5,752 5,210 6,004 4,900 5,022 6,152 4,999 4,362 3,664 4,104 3,342 2,858 4,371 2,862 2,820 3,198 2,239 3,165 2,940 2,500 2,981 2,916 2,850 1,492 2,150 2,540 2,876 2,436 2,753 2,118 1,646 1,347
6 5 3 6 5 6 4 5 5 4 6 4 5 4 4 5 3 4 5 3 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 2 2
$441.67 $411.74 $439.69 $398.99 $428.00 $358.09 $406.10 $368.38 $268.21 $290.06 $304.91 $357.53 $304.58 $344.11 $313.16 $203.39 $288.26 $283.69 $243.75 $339.39 $233.81 $246.60 $279.48 $226.43 $228.05 $220.70 $418.83 $278.60 $235.04 $194.02 $205.21 $177.62 $217.14 $243.00 $263.55
Currently For Sale in Orange Tree Area 6.5 5.5 3.5 5 5.5 5 4.5 4.5 6 4 3.5 3 4.5 3.5 2.5 4 3 2 3 3.5 2.5 3 2.5 2.5 3.5 2.5 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2
$2,650,000 $2,300,000 $2,300,000 $2,295,000 $2,229,900 $2,150,000 $1,989,900 $1,850,000 $1,650,000 $1,450,000 $1,330,000 $1,310,000 $1,250,000 $1,150,000 $895,000 $889,000 $825,000 $800,000 $779,500 $759,900 $739,999 $725,000 $698,700 $675,000 $665,000 $629,000 $624,900 $599,000 $597,000 $558,000 $499,900 $489,000 $459,900 $399,900 $355,000
NEIGHBORHOOD Century Circle Estates Sunburst Farms Equestrian Manor Century Club Estates Sunburst Farms Equestrian Manor Sunburst Farms Plymouth Estates Equestrian Manor Century Club Estates Century Club Estates Century Club Estates Orangetree Manor Orangetree Manor Orangetree Estates Orangetree Estates Las Haciendas Century Club Estates Century Club Estates Country Club Avant Century North Century North Avant Rancho Saguaro Avant Sunburst Farms Avant Shea North Estates Rancho Saguaro Sunburst Farms Avant Rancho Saguaro Orangetree Townhomes Century Place
WANT YOUR PROPERTY TO BE OUR NEXT COVER HOME?
Call Phil for the most effective marketing strategies to sell your Biltmore property. All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. The properties on this list have been listed/sold by various members of the MLS. All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Properties on this list have been listed/sold by various members of the MLS.
If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.
I
The wheels seem to have come off the cart last month. Could we have seen this coming. Yes!
Happy Thanksgiving to all of my readers! NMLS # 217645 602.329.6591 Direct tompkins@ksstatebank.com| www.ksstatebank.com
OrangeTree
2018
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