Bob Lomax | Mirabel Lifestyle

Now that the stock market is back in record territory, it is interesting to compare where home prices are today compared with the peak values 10 years ago. The answer might surprise you. According to the Cromford Report, homes in the 85262 zip code are still 28% below the peak level pricing prior to the recession. Only parts of Old Town Scottsdale are almost back to pre-recession levels. (See chart below.)

1. Scottsdale 85251 2. Scottsdale 85257 3. Scottsdale 85250 4. Scottsdale 85255 5. Scottsdale 85258 6. Scottsdale 85254 7. Scottsdale 85260

-2% -8% -15% -15% -20% -21% -24%

9. Carefree 85377 10. Cave Creek 85331 11. Scottsdale 85259 12. Scottsdale 85262 13. Paradise Valley 14. Scottsdale 85266 15. Rio Verde 85263

Coming This Fall | Contemporary Masterpiece 4 Beds | 4.5 Baths | Office & Home Theater $3,000,000

-26% -27% -27% -28% -29% -31% -36%

SEPTEMBER | OCTOBER 2016

MIRAB

MIRABEL FEATURED PROPERTY Featured Mirabel Cover Home

The Broker’s Corner

Mirabel LIFESTYLE

Hallowed History & FUN FALL FACTS

So why has the stock market fully recovered but not housing prices in our market? The answer may lie in the fact that during the boom 10 years ago, a good percentage of the buyers that were purchasing second homes probably didn’t have the financial resources to justify doing so. I estimate these buyers were as many as 30% of the total buyer pool back then.

Their incomes were overly inflated because of a booming economy and home loans were easy to get and cheap. The thinking was they would buy a second home using leverage, enjoy them for a few years, and would make a profit as the housing values continued to increase. Unfortunately when the housing market crashed, these buyers did not have the staying power to make it through the recession and most of them lost the houses to short sales or foreclosures. These buyers are not likely to come back into the market.

In addition to the aforementioned 30% of buyers being out of the second home market for good, another fairly large segment of the pre-recession potential buyers are choosing to rent to avoid subjecting themselves to the volatility in the real estate market. Add these two groups together and it could be as many as 40% or even 50% of the pre-recession potential second home buyer pool has evaporated.

Given this drop in overall demand, it is not surprising that housing prices in our market are not back to the levels of 10 years ago. But the good news is, we shouldn’t see as dramatic of a correction next time there is a recession as the vast majority of second home buyers I work with today are paying cash for their homes and will have the staying power to weather the storm if there is one. The experts expect our market will see slight gains in home prices over the next several years and would call our market today healthy and the new “normal.

Metro Market Housing Report

Until next time ……………..

Bob Lomax

The Beverly

Owner/Designated Broker Mirabel Properties

Flatbread & Manhattans BOB LOMAX

OWNER/DESIGNATED BROKER MIRABEL PROPERTIES

480.595.2545 OFFICE 480.595.9503 FAX 602.920.7192 MOBILE

www.mirabel.com If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

Produced by DLP Marketing • (480)460-0996 • DLPmarketing.com

Contemporary Masterpiece

Presented By Bob Lomax

EVENTFUL

Metro Market Report

SEPTEMBER | OCTOBER 2016 19th Annual Ballet Under the Stars

TroonFIT Running on the Links Series 1 The Boulders | October 1 RunningOnTheLinks.com TroonFIT Running on the Links Series 1 – The Boulders, why should only golfers enjoy some of the most beautiful grounds Arizona offers? Take to the cart paths, features a front 9 distance (approximately 5K) perfect for walking or a short run, enter a drawing with the chance to win amazing prizes.

13th Annual Arizona Dragon Boat Festival Tempe Town Lake | October 1 - 2 AZdba.com 13th Annual Arizona Dragon Boat Festival – Tempe Town Lake Marina, 50 dragon boat racing teams from all over the world are expected to participate, 40-foot-long rowing canoes, 20 paddlers, one steersperson & a drummer in a 500-meter race, features competitive and recreational dragon boat races, vendors, and Asian and Pacific inspired talented entertainment.

Pumpkin Days & Corn Maze Tolmachoff Farms | October 1- 31 Tolmachoff-Farms.com | (602) 999-3276 Pumpkin Days & Corn Maze – Tolmachoff Farms, pumpkin patch, 6 acre family corn maze with a new theme every year (search for pieces of your map as you walk through), mini corn maze (perfect for little ones), haunted corn maze (dare to enter), also petting zoo, train ride, hay pyramid, corn box, adult and child pedal cart track, jumping pillow and more.

7th Annual Arizona Taco Festival Salt River Fields at Talking Stick | October 15 - 16 AZTacoFestival.com 7th Annual Arizona Taco Festival – Salt River Fields, 50+ professional and amateur taco teams compete for $10,000 in prizes in chicken, beef, pork and fish, a side cart throw down in salsa and guacamole, Lucha Libre wrestling, a tequila tasting tent, “Ay Chihuahua! [dog] Beauty Pageant,” live surfer rock music and more.

T

he housing market in Greater Phoenix started 2016 in a healthy state and has continued to improve, at least for sellers of entry level and midrange homes up to $500,000.

“The price increases are a natural result of the very strong demand for homes against very limited homes for sale,” says Realtor.com’s chief economist, Jonathan Smoke. “It is pent-up demand… coupled with the lowest mortgage rates we’ve had in three years.”

The price range below $250,000 remains short of supply and the number of buyers far exceeds the low number of homes for sale. Appreciation is strongest for these entry-level homes and condition is rarely a constraint.

Location can be an issue, but the shortage of homes for sale in the central areas has encouraged more buyers to go looking in outer locations. This has led to much improved markets in locations like Buckeye, Maricopa and Florence.

Between $250,000 and $500,000, supply has improved over 2015 and is being replenished quickly by new home builders. New single family home permits in Maricopa and Pinal Counties totaled 7,778 year to date by the end of May. This is an increase of 18% compared to 2015.

“More homeowners are realizing the equity they’ve accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize,” according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Repeat buyers are using the proceeds from the sale of their previous home as their down payment.”

Mid-range demand has increased thanks to historically low interest rates and a mild slackening of lender underwriting conditions. Appreciation is moderate for this price segment, but comfortably exceeds the CPI inflation rate which remains unusually low. There are occasional problems for homes that have been neglected or in great need of modernization.

The luxury market has lost momentum in the last 12 months. The price range between $500,000 and $1,000,000 is still doing reasonably well, with very slight appreciation in prices.

Despite weakness in the luxury sector, the majority of the Greater Phoenix housing market is healthier now than it was 12 months ago and the prospect of rising mortgage interest rates has faded. The millennial generation is now a more significant pool of potential home buyers than the baby boomer generation and this dominance will increase over the coming decade. It is the many differences between baby boomer and millennial lifestyle decisions that are likely to change the nature of the housing market going forward.

REAL ESTATE

corner

F

Scaring Up The Past

all is in the air. Before long, pumpkins will be transformed into jack-o-lanterns and costume-clad children will be roaming the streets in search of sweets. But how did Halloween come to be and what is the root of all the spooky and fun traditions?

According to the History Channel, the holiday’s origins lie with the Celts, the ancient Irish clan who lived 2,000 years ago, who marked the day as the end of the harvest season and the start of the long, cold winter. As crops and food became scarce, this bridge between seasons became synonymous with a bridge to the world of the dead. The Celts celebrated the day with a festival known as “Samhain” (translation “summer’s end”) during which they lit bonfires and donned costumes in hopes of keeping ghosts away.

The costumes were usually made from animal heads and skins.

Although a far cry from the Minion and Spiderman costumes of today, this is the root of why we wear Halloween costumes today.

The actual word “Halloween” didn’t become associated with this time of year until about the 8th century when the Christian church declared November 1st All Soul’s Day, a time to honor not fear the dead. This was also known as “All-hallows” or “All-hallowmas,” from the Middle English Alholowmesse, which meant All Saints’

IN GOOD TASTE

Steele Indian School Park Memorial Hall September 24 BalletAZ.org | (602) 381-0184 19th Annual Ballet Under the Stars – Steele Indian School Park, sunset performance series by Ballet Arizona in an outdoor setting, with a stage, lighting, costumes and beautiful Arizona weather, bring a blanket or lawn chair, varied program ranging from classical to contemporary.

Day. The night before became known as All-hallows Eve and before long was simply called Halloween. But how did scaring the dead away and honoring the dead turn into a night focused on kids and candy? Trick or treating actually has these same ancient origins. In order to keep ghosts away from their home, the ancient Celts would place bowls of food on their doorstep hoping this would appease the spirits. Later on in England, AllSouls’ Day parades began when poor children would go door to door promising to pray for people’s deceased loved ones in return for pastries, which were known as “soul cakes.” This is the origin of the sweet treats your little ones go in search of every year on Halloween.

Halloween did not really come to America until about the 1850s when Irish and English immigrants brought with them these ancient customs. The traditions grew and evolved into our own American version of Halloween. So this year, as you hang a scary witch or silly ghost in your yard, remember that you’ll not only be spooking the neighborhood children but you may be warding off bad spirits from your home as well. And who couldn’t use a little good fortune these days?

Happy Halloween!

Mad Men Flatbread INGREDIENTS 1 ½c ½ c 4 oz 4 oz

Damascus flatbread Pizza sauce Shredded mozzarella Sliced Italian sausage Prosciutto

DIRECTIONS Preheat oven to 400 degrees. Layer sauce, mozzarella, sausage and prosciutto on flatbread. Cook for 8 minutes or until flatbread is crispy. Enjoy!

Manhattan INGREDIENTS 2 oz ¾ oz

Rye or Canadian Whiskey Sweet red vermouth Maraschino cherry (garnish) Dash Angostura bitters

DIRECTIONS Stirred over ice, strained into a chilled martini glass, garnished, and served straight up.

(480) 889-5580 | BeverlyOnMain.com

EVENTFUL

Metro Market Report

SEPTEMBER | OCTOBER 2016 19th Annual Ballet Under the Stars

TroonFIT Running on the Links Series 1 The Boulders | October 1 RunningOnTheLinks.com TroonFIT Running on the Links Series 1 – The Boulders, why should only golfers enjoy some of the most beautiful grounds Arizona offers? Take to the cart paths, features a front 9 distance (approximately 5K) perfect for walking or a short run, enter a drawing with the chance to win amazing prizes.

13th Annual Arizona Dragon Boat Festival Tempe Town Lake | October 1 - 2 AZdba.com 13th Annual Arizona Dragon Boat Festival – Tempe Town Lake Marina, 50 dragon boat racing teams from all over the world are expected to participate, 40-foot-long rowing canoes, 20 paddlers, one steersperson & a drummer in a 500-meter race, features competitive and recreational dragon boat races, vendors, and Asian and Pacific inspired talented entertainment.

Pumpkin Days & Corn Maze Tolmachoff Farms | October 1- 31 Tolmachoff-Farms.com | (602) 999-3276 Pumpkin Days & Corn Maze – Tolmachoff Farms, pumpkin patch, 6 acre family corn maze with a new theme every year (search for pieces of your map as you walk through), mini corn maze (perfect for little ones), haunted corn maze (dare to enter), also petting zoo, train ride, hay pyramid, corn box, adult and child pedal cart track, jumping pillow and more.

7th Annual Arizona Taco Festival Salt River Fields at Talking Stick | October 15 - 16 AZTacoFestival.com 7th Annual Arizona Taco Festival – Salt River Fields, 50+ professional and amateur taco teams compete for $10,000 in prizes in chicken, beef, pork and fish, a side cart throw down in salsa and guacamole, Lucha Libre wrestling, a tequila tasting tent, “Ay Chihuahua! [dog] Beauty Pageant,” live surfer rock music and more.

T

he housing market in Greater Phoenix started 2016 in a healthy state and has continued to improve, at least for sellers of entry level and midrange homes up to $500,000.

“The price increases are a natural result of the very strong demand for homes against very limited homes for sale,” says Realtor.com’s chief economist, Jonathan Smoke. “It is pent-up demand… coupled with the lowest mortgage rates we’ve had in three years.”

The price range below $250,000 remains short of supply and the number of buyers far exceeds the low number of homes for sale. Appreciation is strongest for these entry-level homes and condition is rarely a constraint.

Location can be an issue, but the shortage of homes for sale in the central areas has encouraged more buyers to go looking in outer locations. This has led to much improved markets in locations like Buckeye, Maricopa and Florence.

Between $250,000 and $500,000, supply has improved over 2015 and is being replenished quickly by new home builders. New single family home permits in Maricopa and Pinal Counties totaled 7,778 year to date by the end of May. This is an increase of 18% compared to 2015.

“More homeowners are realizing the equity they’ve accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize,” according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Repeat buyers are using the proceeds from the sale of their previous home as their down payment.”

Mid-range demand has increased thanks to historically low interest rates and a mild slackening of lender underwriting conditions. Appreciation is moderate for this price segment, but comfortably exceeds the CPI inflation rate which remains unusually low. There are occasional problems for homes that have been neglected or in great need of modernization.

The luxury market has lost momentum in the last 12 months. The price range between $500,000 and $1,000,000 is still doing reasonably well, with very slight appreciation in prices.

Despite weakness in the luxury sector, the majority of the Greater Phoenix housing market is healthier now than it was 12 months ago and the prospect of rising mortgage interest rates has faded. The millennial generation is now a more significant pool of potential home buyers than the baby boomer generation and this dominance will increase over the coming decade. It is the many differences between baby boomer and millennial lifestyle decisions that are likely to change the nature of the housing market going forward.

REAL ESTATE

corner

F

Scaring Up The Past

all is in the air. Before long, pumpkins will be transformed into jack-o-lanterns and costume-clad children will be roaming the streets in search of sweets. But how did Halloween come to be and what is the root of all the spooky and fun traditions?

According to the History Channel, the holiday’s origins lie with the Celts, the ancient Irish clan who lived 2,000 years ago, who marked the day as the end of the harvest season and the start of the long, cold winter. As crops and food became scarce, this bridge between seasons became synonymous with a bridge to the world of the dead. The Celts celebrated the day with a festival known as “Samhain” (translation “summer’s end”) during which they lit bonfires and donned costumes in hopes of keeping ghosts away.

The costumes were usually made from animal heads and skins.

Although a far cry from the Minion and Spiderman costumes of today, this is the root of why we wear Halloween costumes today.

The actual word “Halloween” didn’t become associated with this time of year until about the 8th century when the Christian church declared November 1st All Soul’s Day, a time to honor not fear the dead. This was also known as “All-hallows” or “All-hallowmas,” from the Middle English Alholowmesse, which meant All Saints’

IN GOOD TASTE

Steele Indian School Park Memorial Hall September 24 BalletAZ.org | (602) 381-0184 19th Annual Ballet Under the Stars – Steele Indian School Park, sunset performance series by Ballet Arizona in an outdoor setting, with a stage, lighting, costumes and beautiful Arizona weather, bring a blanket or lawn chair, varied program ranging from classical to contemporary.

Day. The night before became known as All-hallows Eve and before long was simply called Halloween. But how did scaring the dead away and honoring the dead turn into a night focused on kids and candy? Trick or treating actually has these same ancient origins. In order to keep ghosts away from their home, the ancient Celts would place bowls of food on their doorstep hoping this would appease the spirits. Later on in England, AllSouls’ Day parades began when poor children would go door to door promising to pray for people’s deceased loved ones in return for pastries, which were known as “soul cakes.” This is the origin of the sweet treats your little ones go in search of every year on Halloween.

Halloween did not really come to America until about the 1850s when Irish and English immigrants brought with them these ancient customs. The traditions grew and evolved into our own American version of Halloween. So this year, as you hang a scary witch or silly ghost in your yard, remember that you’ll not only be spooking the neighborhood children but you may be warding off bad spirits from your home as well. And who couldn’t use a little good fortune these days?

Happy Halloween!

Mad Men Flatbread INGREDIENTS 1 ½c ½ c 4 oz 4 oz

Damascus flatbread Pizza sauce Shredded mozzarella Sliced Italian sausage Prosciutto

DIRECTIONS Preheat oven to 400 degrees. Layer sauce, mozzarella, sausage and prosciutto on flatbread. Cook for 8 minutes or until flatbread is crispy. Enjoy!

Manhattan INGREDIENTS 2 oz ¾ oz

Rye or Canadian Whiskey Sweet red vermouth Maraschino cherry (garnish) Dash Angostura bitters

DIRECTIONS Stirred over ice, strained into a chilled martini glass, garnished, and served straight up.

(480) 889-5580 | BeverlyOnMain.com

Now that the stock market is back in record territory, it is interesting to compare where home prices are today compared with the peak values 10 years ago. The answer might surprise you. According to the Cromford Report, homes in the 85262 zip code are still 28% below the peak level pricing prior to the recession. Only parts of Old Town Scottsdale are almost back to pre-recession levels. (See chart below.)

1. Scottsdale 85251 2. Scottsdale 85257 3. Scottsdale 85250 4. Scottsdale 85255 5. Scottsdale 85258 6. Scottsdale 85254 7. Scottsdale 85260

-2% -8% -15% -15% -20% -21% -24%

9. Carefree 85377 10. Cave Creek 85331 11. Scottsdale 85259 12. Scottsdale 85262 13. Paradise Valley 14. Scottsdale 85266 15. Rio Verde 85263

Coming This Fall | Contemporary Masterpiece 4 Beds | 4.5 Baths | Office & Home Theater $3,000,000

-26% -27% -27% -28% -29% -31% -36%

SEPTEMBER | OCTOBER 2016

MIRAB

MIRABEL FEATURED PROPERTY Featured Mirabel Cover Home

The Broker’s Corner

Mirabel LIFESTYLE

Hallowed History & FUN FALL FACTS

So why has the stock market fully recovered but not housing prices in our market? The answer may lie in the fact that during the boom 10 years ago, a good percentage of the buyers that were purchasing second homes probably didn’t have the financial resources to justify doing so. I estimate these buyers were as many as 30% of the total buyer pool back then.

Their incomes were overly inflated because of a booming economy and home loans were easy to get and cheap. The thinking was they would buy a second home using leverage, enjoy them for a few years, and would make a profit as the housing values continued to increase. Unfortunately when the housing market crashed, these buyers did not have the staying power to make it through the recession and most of them lost the houses to short sales or foreclosures. These buyers are not likely to come back into the market.

In addition to the aforementioned 30% of buyers being out of the second home market for good, another fairly large segment of the pre-recession potential buyers are choosing to rent to avoid subjecting themselves to the volatility in the real estate market. Add these two groups together and it could be as many as 40% or even 50% of the pre-recession potential second home buyer pool has evaporated.

Given this drop in overall demand, it is not surprising that housing prices in our market are not back to the levels of 10 years ago. But the good news is, we shouldn’t see as dramatic of a correction next time there is a recession as the vast majority of second home buyers I work with today are paying cash for their homes and will have the staying power to weather the storm if there is one. The experts expect our market will see slight gains in home prices over the next several years and would call our market today healthy and the new “normal.

Metro Market Housing Report

Until next time ……………..

Bob Lomax

The Beverly

Owner/Designated Broker Mirabel Properties

Flatbread & Manhattans BOB LOMAX

OWNER/DESIGNATED BROKER MIRABEL PROPERTIES

480.595.2545 OFFICE 480.595.9503 FAX 602.920.7192 MOBILE

www.mirabel.com If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

Produced by DLP Marketing • (480)460-0996 • DLPmarketing.com

Contemporary Masterpiece

Presented By Bob Lomax