Trgovanje na finansijskom tržištu
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UVOD U UVOD.................................................................................................................................6 Zašto je devizni kurs bitan? ................................................................................................................ 6 UVOD U FOREX ......................................................................................................................... 8 Šta je to Forex .................................................................................................................................... 8 Istorija novca .................................................................................................................................... 10 Uloga Centralne banke i novčana masa ............................................................................................ 14 Novčana masa .................................................................................................................................. 14 Trgovanje devizama i devizni kursevi .............................................................................................. 16 Kratka istorija FOREX-a i učesnici na tržištu .................................................................................. 18 Istorija Forex-a ................................................................................................................................. 18 Učesnici na FOREX tržištu ........................................................................................................ 20 KAKO SE TRGUJE NA FOREX-u ............................................................................................... 24 Označavanje valuta i valutni parovi ................................................................................................. 24 Osnovna i kontra valuta .............................................................................................................. 24 Direktna i indirektna kotacija ...................................................................................................... 24 Izračunavanje P&L (bilansa uspeha, profita ili gubitka)................................................................... 27 Rollover kamata ............................................................................................................................... 28 Margin trading ................................................................................................................................. 29 Vrste naloga za trgovanje ................................................................................................................. 30 Market order (nalog po tžišnoj ceni) ........................................................................................... 30 Limit nalog ................................................................................................................................. 31 Stop nalog (Trailing stop) ........................................................................................................... 32 Entry nalog ................................................................................................................................. 32 Vrste računa koje možete otvoriti kod Forex brokera ....................................................................... 33 Profili valuta..................................................................................................................................... 34 FUNDAMENTALNA ANALIZA .................................................................................................. 36 Devizni kurs u dužem roku .............................................................................................................. 36 Faktori koji utiču na devizni kurs ..................................................................................................... 37 Devizni kurs u kraćem roku ............................................................................................................. 38 Uslov pariteta kamatnih stopa ..................................................................................................... 40 Ravnoteža na deviznom tržištu ................................................................................................... 41 Promene u ravnotežnom deviznom kursu: dva primera .............................................................. 43 Pregled važnijih fundamentalnih indikatora - EUR ............................................................................. 47 Pregled važnijih fundamentalnih indikatora - USD .......................................................................... 48 Kalendar ekonomskih izveštaja ........................................................................................................ 66 Ostali faktori od uticaja na forex tržište............................................................................................ 67 Politički problemi ....................................................................................................................... 67 Društveni faktori ......................................................................................................................... 67 Izjave uticajnih ljudi ................................................................................................................... 67 Zlato i nafta ................................................................................................................................. 68 Uobičajena praksa "fundamentalista" ............................................................................................... 70 Odstupanje objavljenih podataka ................................................................................................ 70 Carry Trades ............................................................................................................................... 71 Povezanost sa berzom akcija....................................................................................................... 72 Trgovanje na bazi vesti i događaja .............................................................................................. 72 TEHNIČKA ANALIZA ............................................................................................................. 73 Osnovni postulati ............................................................................................................................. 73 Osnovni koraci u analizi ............................................................................................................. 74 Osnovne vrste grafikona .................................................................................................................. 74 Linijski grafikon ......................................................................................................................... 74 Palica (Bar chart) ........................................................................................................................ 75 Stubići ......................................................................................................................................... 76 Point & Figure ............................................................................................................................ 77 Japanske sveće ............................................................................................................................ 78
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