Arup, Awards Entry

For best management practice

Arup Case study: Reducing carbon emissions in the Thames Gateway Date: 19 October 2007 Category: Corporate social responsibility

Contact: Neil Kirkpatrick, Arup

Executive Summary In September 2006, Arup was appointed by Turner & Townsend, to form a consulting team to deliver a low carbon feasibility study for the Thames Gateway. The study was commissioned by the Department of Communities and Local Government (CLG) to obtain further understanding of the magnitude of greenhouse gases within, and as a consequence of development activity in the Thames Gateway.

The resulting feasibility study is an international first, as it targets Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gases with a lifecycle-based approach. Arup’s integrated resource management (IRM) modelling experience has enabled CLG to visualise and understand the extent of the policydriven changes required to meet the Thames Gateway’s emissions targets. An accurate assessment of how much it will cost to take action was simultaneously undertaken by Turner & Townsend’s cost management team.

Arup modelled a ‘business as usual’ scenario to ensure that current and near-future social trends, policy drivers and technology informed all decision-making linked to design and planning. Similarly, Turner & Townsend used the 2004 Stern Report’s evaluation of the cost of climate change, to inform its evaluation of how much preventative and remedial actions would cost.

As a result of Arup and Turner & Townsend’s combined expertise, the Thames Gateway feasibility study has demonstrated how significant emissions reductions can be achieved and the study is being actively used to guide and inform Government policy. The final report is due to be a centrepiece at the Thames Gateway Forum in November 2007, where the scope and findings will be published as part of a national media campaign.

"Arup has been instrumental in helping Turner & Townsend to change the way we look at carbon reduction and the cost implications. This collaboration has created a unique product with international potential."

Michael Nates, Associate Director, Turner & Townsend

Background Definition for this study: ‘low carbon’ The significant reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions generated directly within the Thames Gateway and beyond its geographical boundaries (but resulting from activities in the Thames Gateway).

Other definitions: •

Carbon neutral – externalises emissions reductions

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Zero carbon – applied to buildings only

The challenge At the Think07 Conference on Sustainability, Regeneration and Innovation in May 2007, John Prescott, MP, mentioned that if current trends continue (business as usual), carbon emissions in the Thames Gateway are likely to increase by 107%, by 2050.

The need for immediate intervention was clear, especially as Government targets have been set at reducing emissions by 60%. When CLG commissioned a study to examine the feasibility of achieving different rates of reduction in GHG emissions for the Gateway, our first priority was to obtain a clear picture of the area and its characteristics.

Complexity Definition of the Thames Gateway and its key drivers and GHG emissions totals, set the baseline for our feasibility study. The CLG website provides the following description of the area: “The Thames Gateway stretches for 40 miles along the Thames Estuary from the London Docklands to Southend in Essex and Sheerness in Kent. Its boundary was drawn to capture the riverside strip that hosted many land extensive industries that formerly served London and the South East, and whose decline has left a legacy of large scale derelict sites and relatively depressed local towns and communities.

The area amounts to 2% of the south east of England, but contains some 17% of its brownfield land (3,800 ha), providing excellent opportunities to help meet the increasing demand for housing and preserving as much of the 65% that is valuable green space land as possible. The Gateway has 1.6m residents and approximately 700,000 households, averaging 2.4 people per household. It currently supports some 500,000 jobs.”

Targets CLG also highlighted the following targets for the Gateway by 2016:

120,000 new homes with affordable units for rent or purchase by first time buyers including key workers, supported by high quality transport infrastructure

Aiming for 180,000 new jobs through encouraging business and economic investment offering local residents a wider range of career options

Improve education facilities to enhance the local skills base, helping residents to obtain jobs and better prospects

All residents will have access to high quality healthcare, reducing the existing inequalities across the area

Major improvement to the image and environment of the Gateway, including higher quality design and attractive open spaces, with improved green spaces and access to the river.

Objectives The feasibility study had set boundaries and needed to examine existing and prospective GHG emissions from 2005 when it was commissioned, to 2050. To achieve all of the Government targets for the area, Arup and Turner & Townsend had to define clear objectives.

Consequently, our work was primarily focused on reducing carbon emissions associated with:

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Transport and logistics activity needed to service residents and industry in the Gateway

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Supply chain management

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Demand and supply of energy in buildings

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Pre-combustion emissions associated with the generation of electricity for the National Grid

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Waste management, including recycling and energy from waste processes

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Water demand and supply, provision and treatment of potable water, treatment of wastewater, surface water treatment and discharge

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Personal transport, for work, shopping, leisure and education, using a variety of public and private transport options

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Consumption of food and consumables by residents, and construction of housing

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Wider industrial systems associated with closed or open loop recycling that may be implied or integrated within a given data set.

Consulting Activity Deploying management and technology experts from Arup and Turner & Townsend was crucial to the study’s success.

Both Arup and Turner & Townsend have a host of

sustainability experts and were proactive in bringing together the right people, at the right time.

Informed decision making A team of 50 experts spanning all relevant disciplines: energy, water, waste, transport and logistics, contributed over 300 years worth of technical expertise and experience, to create the ultimate low carbon solution for the Thames Gateway.

Team working and interfacing with technical experts ensured consensus on the parameters that defined models of performance criteria, for technologies and associated logistics and transport. During the two year span of the project, workshops provided opportunities for experts to meet, share knowledge and bring additional clarity to its goals and objectives.

Defining individual roles and responsibilities from the outset, created a strong team-working dynamic. This joined up approach proved instrumental in reaching technical outputs with enough scope and detail for efficient integration into a central IRM model. Ultimately, every solution modelled was only as good as the technical definition provided. Likewise, technical definitions were only as good as the project team’s ability to integrate them within a complete package.

Lifecycle approach Defining a true representation of how the Gateway’s emissions are being generated, was imperative to investigating ways to reduce them. Emissions reduction is usually referred to as zero or low carbon, a term primarily used in the context of energy consumption in buildings and defined by the London Energy Partnership (LEP) as heating, lighting, cooling and ventilation. The boundaries of this study however, had been expanded to include contributions to climate change associated with emissions from other sources, beyond the standard energy consumables.

The lifecycle approach that defined consulting activity took into account a host of factors that determine the entire lifecycle of energy use, from construction to transportation and energy acquisition. Consultants quantified the emissions associated with electricity by considering the way it is generated. This included additional analysis of all pre-combustion emissions involved in getting electricity out of the plug socket in the wall, such as the processing and burning of coal, oil and gas etc.

Similarly, the study measured transport emissions by tracing them back from public and private modes in the Gateway, to the transporting and processing of fuel. The carbon footprint grew naturally bigger as multiple layers were revealed, giving the client a true breakdown of the problem. By quantifying and capturing a true representation of emissions in the Gateway, we were able to confidently predict and evidence how they could be reduced.

Integrated Resource Management (IRM) modelling An Integrated Resource Management (IRM) modelling approach was used to communicate the study’s findings. This tool, developed by Arup, has the decision support capability for city and regional masterplanning, particularly where achieving a high level of sustainability performance is a key requirement. With IRM we were able to integrate work on multiple technical parameters including waste management, transportation and water supply, to provide an optimal solution.

After initial literature review and data collection, each of the key performance areas identified for emissions management (energy, waste, water, transport and logistics) was defined in baseline, ‘business as usual’ and future scenarios. Each scenario was tested using the IRM model before appropriate changes to achieve overall reductions in GHG emissions could be identified. Turner & Townsend then analysed and costed each of the proposed solutions in terms of: initial capital cost, operating and maintenance, energy and asset replacement costs.

The value of IRM modelling combined with the cost estimations proved intrinsic to realising a common baseline for comparison of ‘business as usual’ and alternative future scenarios. Key factors considered:

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Impact of contributing energy, waste, water, transport and logistics factors

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Analysis of proposed interventions, their impact on GHG reduction and cost

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Sensitivity and scenario analysis to understand the impact on results of key uncertainties

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Life cycle thinking was embedded in the study

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Emissions inside the Gateway, and outside due to demand for goods and services, were considered

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Other greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide were taken into account

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Integrated analysis of data related to buildings, transport, waste, water, logistics, construction and consumption

Success factors and challenges International achievement This study is a first of its kind, in that it models and analyses a major, established urban area with mature infrastructure ear-marked for significant, long-term growth. Its complexity is far greater than undertaking a similar study of a new development, where all the data is readily calculable.

The study spans 45 years from 2005 to 2050 - a huge challenge that was

synonymous with attempting to predict the current state of the Thames Gateway in 2007, from a baseline of 1962. The techniques used by Arup and Turner & Townsend have broken new ground and will inform future studies and policies.

Depth of reporting Including emissions from sources like the national grid, transport and construction materials at the baseline of our equation, added extra factors to the total emissions. This revealed a much more in depth picture of emissions in the Gateway area, as careful reporting ensured transparency when it came to quantifying our results.

Transparency The trend for studies of this nature has tended to reveal little or very poor transparency, making it difficult to tell what factors have been included and excluded. To reverse this trend, the Arup/Turner & Townsend report includes an accompanying appendix with 300 pages of assumptions that equate to two years worth of work.

Complete confidence The evidence of thinking, testing and results collation in the study’s appendix provides comprehensive support for our assumptions and allows us to place much more emphasis on the value of report outputs. This extra dimension of reporting delivers value that is additional to the data itself, as it promotes complete confidence in the results. By presenting in-depth findings we can provide our client with absolute evidence that the interventions identified are accurate.

Informing future policy Being able to present findings, with absolute confidence, has set this report apart. It has been referenced at Ministerial level, certifying its influence as a document that is informing future Government policy. Having such a comprehensive analysis of the Gateway has made a huge contribution to the way the Government is able to respond on the sustainability topic as a whole.

Client/consultant relationship An extremely good relationship has been enjoyed by Arup, Turner & Townsend and CLG. The feasibility study has given Ministers the capability to prove climate change targets can be achieved, if GHG emissions reduction strategies are systematically implemented.

Transparent reporting has increased confidence in the findings and supports their ultimate recommendation that a significant reduction is entirely possible. With a methodology that can be applied globally to other cities and regions, the study is already informing future policy and visualises a vibrant future for the Thames Gateway, if action is taken now.

This submission has the full support and backing of the CLG and in particular Nicholas Gibbins, the Climate Change and Energy Manager for Thames Gateway, who is willing to personally endorse this submission.