What direction is S.F.'s real estate market heading? Here's what data suggests
By Ted Andersen – Digital Editor, San Francisco Business Times
Feb 11, 2025
While San Francisco home prices have stayed relatively flat to start the year, one key real estate measurement has seen a big boost as of late. Specifically, the absorption rate which measures buyer demand versus the supply of listings for sale — jumped dramatically in January as listings going into contract rose. For houses the rate was about 35% and for condos it was 22%, according to new full month January data compiled by Compass. Last January's overall absorption in the city was just over 16%. "When the new year begins and buyers jump back into the market faster than homeowners add new listings, then the absorption rate rises, and that appears to be what occurred in January in San Francisco," Compass Chief Market Analyst Patrick Carlisle said. "And it looks like more affluent homebuyers have led the charge, as they have for the last year, mostly, I believe, due to large increases in household wealth for the most affluent due to soaring stock markets." In general, last month's sales in the city rose about 25% compared to the year before. That bump was also seen in the high-end market, as January brought an increase in luxury home sales as well as luxury condo and co-op sales, which leaped 40% year over year. The most high-
profile home was Robin Williams' former Sea Cliff mansion at 540 El Camino Del Mar selling on Jan. 23 for $18.1 million, after it had listed for $25 million two years ago.
Carlisle said that now as the market starts to gobble up the growing increase of new listings, that will affect closed-sales statistics in February and later, and days on market will decline and overbidding statistics will likely increase, he said. He added that the median sales price in San Francisco in January remained unchanged year-over-year, but it will likely rise quickly to hit its annual peak in spring. Some notable listings are also returning to the market, while others are making their debut after many years of being under the same owner.
One high-profile example is San Francisco's highest elevation home 150 Glenbrook Ave. In Clarendon Heights which is coming back to market this week, Vanguard Properties coowner and listing agent Frank Nolan said "Open house attendance is way up," Nolan said of the current market. "Inventory remains very tight and buyers are looking for turnkey." Agents in the city have recently expressed enthusiasm for the new year, with many noting that open houses across all price points are seeing upticks in activity and a number of single-family home listings are receiving multiple offers.
Another new listing that just came to market is a historic Alamo Square Victorian at 847 Fillmore St., which is asking $4.15 million. Fully renovated, the last time the home sold was back in 2007. As of Feb. 10, that listing was already pending. Meanwhile in the East Bay, the number of listings for sale in the Oakland and Berkeley area has begun to climb and was up 30% year over year on Feb. 1. Abio CEO Linnette Edwards said she sees the market in that part of the region heating up. "Walnut Creek, Lafayette and Oakland are seeing multiple offers — buyers are done waiting and jumping in," she said. "The shift is happening — buyers who sat on the sidelines for two years are realizing rates aren’t dropping, and they’re making their move now." Per Freddie Mac, on Feb. 6 the weekly average, 30-year conforming-loan interest rate declined slightly to 6.89%.