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Spring Market Gains Footing, But Defined By Low Inventory
• 2023 Q1 Results – 2023 started off strong as prices bounced off the 2022 pullback. Many real estate analyst and CEOs in early January called December the market bottom. While this positive trend continued throughout the quarter, the current real estate market is truly defined by a lack of inventory as sellers remain on the sidelines. During the last six months in Lafayette there were only 83 homes sold, which is down 36% and 48%, respectively, compared to the last two years. Many homeowners are locked in at historically low mortgage rates, have a real estate tax basis well below the current value of their home and have limited options to move as other major markets around the country have seen skyrocketing appreciation in recent years, thereby diminishing the value of moving out of California.

• What Lies Ahead? – While there will likely be a few more bumps in the road as the market continues to recover, we also believe the bottom is behind us. While mortgage rates will likely remain relatively flat for the remainder of the year, as we get closer to a declining rate environment homebuyers will feel more comfortable that mortgages rates are on their way down and sellers will realize there are lower rates to come on their next home purchase.

Historical Bay Area Home

Over the last 35+ years in the Bay Area expansionary periods have averaged 8 years while contractionary periods have averaged 2 years. In recent contractionary markets, corrections have been 1-2 years as capital markets are more efficient.
