Lamorinda Q2 2019 Market Update

LAMORINDA 2019 Q2 MARKET UPDATE Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

MARTIN HOMES TEAM CHANGING HOUSES INTO HOMES MartinHomesTeam.com

LAMORINDA 2019 Q2 MARKET Below is a summary of Multiple Listing Service (“MLS”) data for Lamorinda residential UPDATE

detached home sales over the last twelve months from July 2018 to June 2019 (the prior-year comparison is from July 2017 to June 2018). In summary: • Our real estate market remains strong - The first half 2019 market delivered strong results for most of Lamorinda. Lamorinda average sales price is now $1.72M, up 6%, average sales price per square foot is $655, up 3%, and average days on market increased 8% to 26 days.

• Lafayette continues to outpace both Moraga and Orinda - Lafayette’s average sales price is now $1.86M and average sales price per square foot is $706, up 4%. Average sales price per square foot is $605, up 6% for Moraga and $623, down 1% for Orinda.

• Orinda’s #’s are be bit misleading – While it is true that Orinda’s average sales price per square foot turned negative (down 1%), it is primarily the result of a higher proportion of older vintage homes that require extensive remodeling that were recently sold and not an indication that the Orinda market is beginning to struggle. This trend is also evident in Orinda’s average days on market that increased by 15% to 33 days (as it generally takes longer to sell homes that require extensive remodeling) • Declining Interest Rates & Bay Area tech IPOs could boost the real estate market – Recent declines in mortgage rates and IPOs (recent and potential filings) from the likes of Lyft, Uber, Pinterest, Stripe and Airbnb that are within commute distance of Lamorinda could boost our real estate market in the second half of the year if stock valuations remain strong The following pages provide further details and breaks down the numbers by home size.

Note, Lafayette figures included herein only include transactions within the Lafayette School District

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Lamorinda

Lamorinda Market Update Jul '18 - Jun '19 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 52 Sales Price Average $1,021,500 High $1,350,000 Low $669,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $794 High $1,237 Low $496 Days on MLS Average 15 High 85 Low 0

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

294

198

All Homes

129

673

$1,361,058 $3,600,000 $570,000

$1,824,823 $3,225,000 $1,055,000

$2,651,169 $12,250,000 $1,300,000

$1,718,551 $12,250,000 $570,000

$680 $1,646 $313

$619 $1,064 $350

$596 $1,068 $271

$655 $1,646 $271

19 225 0

25 158 0

47 267 0

26 267 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Jul '18 - Jun '19 vs. Jul '17 - Jun '18) < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions -10.3% Sales Price Average -0.5% High -1.1% Low -0.9% Sales Price Per SQFT Average -2.2% High 2.3% Low -12.2% Days on MLS Average 20.8% High 32.8% Low NA

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

-8.4%

-5.7%

4.0%

-5.6%

3.9% 63.6% -12.3%

4.6% -3.4% 31.7%

7.8% 88.5% 7.4%

6.4% 88.5% -12.3%

3.0% 46.4% -14.7%

5.3% 1.4% 11.0%

6.4% -0.4% -11.1%

3.3% 36.1% -11.1%

7.1% -18.5% NA

-6.1% -15.5% NA

13.6% -20.5% NA

7.5% -20.5% NA

Jul '17 - Jun '18 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 58 Sales Price Average $1,026,657 High $1,365,000 Low $675,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $813 High $1,209 Low $565 Days on MLS Average 13 High 64 Low 0 Source: MLS

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

321

210

124

713

$1,309,597 $2,200,000 $650,000

$1,743,916 $3,340,000 $801,000

$2,459,543 $6,500,000 $1,210,000

$1,614,491 $6,500,000 $650,000

$660 $1,125 $367

$588 $1,049 $316

$560 $1,071 $305

$634 $1,209 $305

18 276 0

27 187 0

41 336 0

24 336 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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Lafayette

Lafayette Market Update Jul '18 - Jun '19 1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 < 1,501 SQFT SQFT SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Home Size # of Transactions 34 Sales Price Average $1,036,353 High $1,320,000 Low $715,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $818 High $1,237 Low $496 Days on MLS Average 16 High 85 Low 0

Total

112

71

64

281

$1,451,682 $3,600,000 $900,000

$1,984,590 $3,225,000 $1,240,000

$2,867,574 $7,800,000 $1,370,000

$1,858,559 $7,800,000 $715,000

$731 $1,646 $424

$671 $1,064 $373

$643 $1,068 $356

$706 $1,646 $356

17 125 0

19 89 0

39 262 0

23 262 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Jul '18 - Jun '19 vs. Jul '17 - Jun '18) < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 0.0% Sales Price Average 0.2% High -2.1% Low 5.9% Sales Price Per SQFT Average -3.8% High 2.3% Low -12.2% Days on MLS Average 13.7% High 32.8% Low NA

1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT SQFT

Total

-8.9%

2.9%

14.3%

-0.4%

5.9% 63.6% 10.8%

9.7% 12.2% 54.8%

10.2% 20.0% -0.4%

10.5% 20.0% 5.9%

3.0% 46.4% 1.0%

10.9% 13.9% 18.1%

9.4% -0.4% 0.3%

4.4% 36.1% 12.8%

7.0% 33.0% NA

-17.5% -37.8% NA

8.0% -22.0% NA

4.4% -22.0% NA

Jul '17 - Jun '18 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 34 Sales Price Average $1,034,250 High $1,349,000 Low $675,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $851 High $1,209 Low $565 Days on MLS Average 14 High 64 Low 0 Source: MLS

1,501 - 2,500 2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT SQFT

Total

123

69

56

282

$1,370,499 $2,200,000 $812,000

$1,808,895 $2,875,000 $801,000

$2,601,375 $6,500,000 $1,375,000

$1,681,655 $6,500,000 $675,000

$709 $1,125 $420

$605 $934 $316

$588 $1,071 $355

$677 $1,209 $316

16 94 0

24 143 0

36 336 0

22 336 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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Moraga

Moraga Market Update Jul '18 - Jun '19 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 3 Sales Price Average $908,333 High $980,000 Low $845,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $672 High $712 Low $606 Days on MLS Average 8 High 14 Low 0

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

68

41

12

124

$1,301,058 $1,800,000 $800,000

$1,610,866 $2,225,000 $1,055,000

$2,280,827 $3,500,000 $1,617,000

$1,488,809 $3,500,000 $800,000

$645 $905 $439

$548 $738 $350

$558 $780 $375

$605 $905 $350

15 89 0

19 116 0

41 107 0

18 116 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Jul '18 - Jun '19 vs. Jul '17 - Jun '18) < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 0.0% Sales Price Average -10.1% High -12.9% Low -5.1% Sales Price Per SQFT Average -4.0% High -9.7% Low -0.4% Days on MLS Average -27.3% High -17.6% Low NA

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 > 3,500 SQFT SQFT

Total

-17.1%

-32.8%

-20.0%

-23.0%

4.6% -4.0% -3.4%

-0.3% 1.1% 0.5%

19.6% 25.0% 17.6%

3.2% 25.0% -3.4%

6.9% 9.0% 1.1%

0.2% 6.2% 5.4%

22.2% 47.0% -0.1%

6.2% 9.0% 5.4%

-1.3% -31.0% NA

-30.1% -7.9% NA

29.5% -32.7% NA

-12.0% -27.0% NA

Jul '17 - Jun '18 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 3 Sales Price Average $1,010,000 High $1,125,000 Low $890,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $700 High $789 Low $608 Days on MLS Average 11 High 17 Low 8 Source: MLS

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 > 3,500 SQFT SQFT

Total

82

61

15

161

$1,244,335 $1,875,000 $828,000

$1,615,569 $2,200,000 $1,050,000

$1,906,732 $2,800,000 $1,375,000

$1,442,336 $2,800,000 $828,000

$603 $830 $434

$546 $695 $333

$457 $531 $376

$570 $830 $333

15 129 0

27 126 0

31 159 0

21 159 0

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Orinda

Orinda Market Update Jul '18 - Jun '19 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 15 Sales Price Average $1,010,467 High $1,350,000 Low $669,000 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $765 High $1,014 Low $563 Days on MLS Average 15 High 75 Low 3

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

114

86

53

268

$1,307,812 $1,845,000 $570,000

$1,794,926 $3,225,000 $1,075,000

$2,473,700 $12,250,000 $1,300,000

$1,678,050 $12,250,000 $570,000

$650 $917 $313

$609 $1,007 $370

$548 $790 $271

$623 $1,014 $271

23 225 0

33 158 0

58 267 6

33 267 0

Change From Prior 12-Months (Jul '18 - Jun '19 vs. Jul '17 - Jun '18) < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions -28.6% Sales Price Average -0.6% High -1.1% Low -5.3% Sales Price Per SQFT Average -0.3% High 0.6% Low -5.0% Days on MLS Average 43.1% High 200.0% Low NA

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

-1.7%

7.5%

0.0%

-0.7%

1.3% -0.3% -12.3%

0.5% -3.4% 4.9%

0.3% 188.2% 7.4%

1.9% 188.2% -12.3%

0.5% 1.0% -14.7%

0.9% -4.1% 3.2%

-2.1% -13.1% -11.1%

-0.5% -3.4% -11.1%

8.6% -18.5% NA

12.2% -15.5% NA

16.8% -9.2% NA

15.1% -9.2% NA

Jul '17 - Jun '18 < 1,501 SQFT Home Size # of Transactions 21 Sales Price Average $1,016,744 High $1,365,000 Low $706,500 Sales Price Per SQFT Average $767 High $1,007 Low $592 Days on MLS Average 11 High 25 Low 0 Source: MLS

1,501 - 2,500 SQFT

2,501 - 3,500 SQFT > 3,500 SQFT

Total

116

80

53

270

$1,291,151 $1,850,000 $650,000

$1,785,737 $3,340,000 $1,025,000

$2,466,139 $4,250,000 $1,210,000

$1,646,998 $4,250,000 $650,000

$647 $907 $367

$604 $1,049 $359

$560 $909 $305

$626 $1,049 $305

21 276 0

29 187 0

49 294 0

28 294 0

Prepared By: Erin & Darrick Martin

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HISTORICAL BAY AREA & LAMORINDA MARKET It is helpful to provide historical context to our real estate market to understand past PERFORMANCE

cycles and how Lamorinda faired compared to the rest of the Bay Area. Each cycle always has different market influences and therefore makes pinpointing the exact timing of when cycles begin and end very difficult. Even during bubble or irrational exuberance periods markets can run well beyond what market experts believe is rational. An example is the 2008-9 Financial Crisis caused by early 2000’s lax underwriting mortgage standards that allowed housing prices to skyrocket from zero-down and negative amortization loans. Most economists in 2003-4 believed homes were overvalued but values continued to rise another three to four years until 2007-8.

Over the last thirty plus years Bay Area real estate markets were not only influenced by the health of our macro economy but also heavily influenced by Bay Area high-tech sector. Innovation creates new markets that translate into wealth creation that propels the growth of our real estate markets. The Silicon Valley influence today extends well beyond the Peninsula. In recent years the run up in Lamorinda home prices has been fueled by “new-tech” companies headquartered in San Francisco such as Uber, Airbnb, Lyft, Pinterest, Stripe, Salesforce, Twitter, Dropbox and Square where previously the lengthy commute to the Silicon Valley prohibited Lamorinda from being a viable option to most tech workers.

The following page provides a historical perspective of past cycles and how Lamorinda price appreciation compares to the rest of the Bay Area.

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Historical Bay Area Home Values 500%

450%

400%

Over the last 30+ years in the Bay Area expansionary periods have averaged 7 years while contractionary periods have averaged 2-3 years

350%

300%

+95% 9 yrs

+57%

250%

5 yrs

200%

-28% 150%

100%

+110%

SF Earthquake

2 yrs

-11% 1 yr

7 yrs

Financial Crisis

Dotcom Bubble

50%

-12%

90's Recession

4 yrs

Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index. 2018 data thru Oct

0%

Historical Lamorinda Home Values 300%

250%

200%

Compared to high-end Bay Area homes prices since 1997, Lafayette outperformed the market, Orinda is just below market while Moraga underperformed the market

+95%

249% 238%

9 yrs

214%

Financial Crisis -28%

150%

2 yrs

100%

+57% 5 yrs

50%

-11% 1 yr

0%

Since 1997: - Lafayette: +249% - Bay Area High-End Homes: +238% - Orinda: +231% - Moraga: +214%

Dotcom Bubble

Source: Case Shiller Bay Area High Price Home Index / MLS. 2018 data thru Oct

0%

Bay Area

231%

Lafayette

Orinda

Moraga

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Erin Martin

Darrick Martin

925.951.3817 Erin@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#01922810

925.900.8218 Darrick@MartinHomesTeam.com MartinHomesTeam.com CalBRE#02006564

Lafayette, CA

Lafayette, CA

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