8th november,2013 daily rice e newsletter (oryza news) by riceplus magazine

8th November , 2013

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 Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Trade Picks Up Ahead of WASDE Report; USDA Reports Strong Medium Grain Exports  Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Rally as Shorts Look to Cover Ahead of Tomorrow’s USDA Update  Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Rally as Shorts Look to Cover Ahead of Tomorrow’s USDA Update  Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Brazil Real Down 0.8%  Venezuela Rice Production May Decline Due to Rising Production Costs, USDA Post Says  India 2013-14 Rice Production Likely to Decline to 100 Million Tons  EU Rice Imports Grow to 1.23 Million Tons in MY 2012-13; Up 10.6% from Previous Year  Iraq Tenders to Purchase 30,000 Tons of Rice  Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Unchanged Overnight as Traders Look Forward to USDA Report USDA Post Lowers China 2013-14 Rice Production Forecast to 141.5 Million Tons Cambodia Exports 294,154 Tons of Rice in January - October, 2013, Up 101% from Last Year Asian rice quotes Oryza Quick Glance at MDA Rice Crop Weather Update Oryza Global Rice Quotes

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NEWS DETAILS: Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Trade Picks Up Ahead of WASDE Report; USDA Reports Strong Medium Grain Exports Nov 07, 2013

The U.S. cash market saw some light trade activity today ahead of tomorrow’s USDA World Agriculture Supply and Estimate. Analysts expect the report to continue to show tight supplies this year with very little change from the USDA’s last estimate.Offers could still be seen around $15.56-$16.66 per fob farm (about $343-$367 per ton), depending on where they are located in the U.S. mid-South, for November through December shipment. Bids from most larger mills increased to around $14.80 per cwt (about $326 per ton )while bids from exporters held steady near $15.40 per cwt (about $340 per ton), both for November through December delivery, although there were reports that rice traded around $15.75 per cwt (about $347 per ton) for January through March delivery.In the meantime, today the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week ending on Oct 31st, totaled 76,600 tons with increases reported for the following destinations including: 37,000 tons to Japan, 22,400 tons to Turkey, 7,100 tons to Mexico, 2,400 tons to Honduras, and 1,800 tons to Canada.U.S. rice exporters shipped 38,000 tons with the primary destinations including: 26,600 tons to Mexico, 2,600 tons to Canada, and 1,900 tons to Jordan, 1,500 tons to the Dominican Republic, and 1,100 tons to Japan.

Tags: U.S. rice prices, U.S. rice, U.S. rice market

Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Rally as Shorts Look to Cover Ahead of Tomorrow’s USDA Update Nov 07, 2013

Chicago rough rice futures for January delivery settled 13 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) higher at $15.505 per cwt (about $342 per ton). Rough rice futures rallied shortly after the ringing of the opening bell in Chicago this morning. Prices shot 20 plus cents per cwt (about $4 per ton) on what appeared to be large fund buy orders, which likely triggered additional buy stops on the way up. This surge in buying interest overwhelmed the bears and prices quickly shot to a fresh multi-week high. Many traders will take a close look at the open interest report in the morning in an attempt to interpret today’s move higher ahead of the USDA report due out tomorrow. Many prominent analysts feel that tomorrow’s report will be a market moving event and expect a big uptick in volatility.

The other grains finished mixed today; soybeans finished the day about 0.9% higher at $12.7875per bushel; wheat finished marginally lower at $6.5300 per bushel; and corn finished the day about 0.2% lower at $4.2050

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per bushel.U.S. stocks declined sharply on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average halting its record advance and Twitter's market debut drawing the spotlight, as investors reacted to an unexpected rate cut by the European Central Bank and a read on third-quarter U.S. economic growth. A day after ending at a record 15,680.35, the Dow Jones Industrial Average erased its initial 50-point gain after briefly hitting another intraday high, with 23 of its 30 components in the red. After rising above its record close of 1,771.95 set last Tuesday, The S&P 500 fell, with consumer discretionary and consumer staples leading broad declines that included all of its 10 major sectors. The Nasdaq also erased an initial gain. U.S. stock markets are currently trading down about 0.9%, gold is trading about 0.8% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.6% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.3% higher at about 2:00pm Chicago time.

Looking to the daily continuation chart of Chicago rough rice futures for January delivery, the market shot higher in early trading, breaking through key technical resistance noted yesterday provided by the 20-day moving average at $15.385 per cwt (about $339 per ton) on the way to a fresh intraday high of $15.590 per cwt (about $344 per ton). Today’s uptick in buying interest was likely triggered by yesterday’s confirmation of the recent bullish turn in technical indicators and forecasts further gains in coming sessions. As previously mentioned today’s rally saw prices break though nearby technical resistance as well as settling just above secondary resistance at $15.490 per cwt (about $341 per ton) provided by the 50-day moving average.

However, prices did pull back from session highs in last minute trading, an indication that further gains will not come easily as noted by large lot offers noted at $15.600 per cwt (about $344 per ton) today. The day’s trading range is noted as $15.345-$15.590 per cwt (about $338-$344 per ton).Wednesday, there were 412 contracts traded, down from 432 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 118 contracts to 8,728.

Tags: chicago rough rice futures, U.S. rice, U.S. rice market, U.S. rice prices

Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Rally as Shorts Look to Cover Ahead of Tomorrow’s USDA Update Nov 07, 2013

Chicago rough rice futures for January delivery settled 13 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) higher at $15.505 per cwt (about $342 per ton). Rough rice futures rallied shortly after the ringing of the opening bell in Chicago this morning. Prices shot 20 plus cents per cwt (about $4 per ton) on what appeared to be large fund buy orders, which likely triggered additional buy stops on the way up. This surge in buying interest overwhelmed the bears and prices quickly shot to a fresh multi-week high. Many traders will take a close look at the open interest report in the morning in an attempt to interpret today’s move higher ahead of the USDA report due out tomorrow. Many prominent analysts feel that tomorrow’s report will be a market moving event and expect a big uptick in volatility.

The other grains finished mixed today; soybeans finished the day about 0.9% higher at $12.7875per bushel; wheat finished marginally lower at $6.5300 per bushel; and corn finished the day about 0.2% lower at $4.2050 per bushel.U.S. stocks declined sharply on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average halting its record

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advance and Twitter's market debut drawing the spotlight, as investors reacted to an unexpected rate cut by the European Central Bank and a read on third-quarter U.S. economic growth.

A day after ending at a record 15,680.35, the Dow Jones Industrial Average erased its initial 50-point gain after briefly hitting another intraday high, with 23 of its 30 components in the red. After rising above its record close of 1,771.95 set last Tuesday, The S&P 500 fell, with consumer discretionary and consumer staples leading broad declines that included all of its 10 major sectors. The Nasdaq also erased an initial gain. U.S. stock markets are currently trading down about 0.9%, gold is trading about 0.8% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.6% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.3% higher at about 2:00pm Chicago time.Looking to the daily continuation chart of Chicago rough rice futures for January delivery, the market shot higher in early trading, breaking through key technical resistance noted yesterday provided by the 20-day moving average at $15.385 per cwt (about $339 per ton) on the way to a fresh intraday high of $15.590 per cwt (about $344 per ton).

Today’s uptick in buying interest was likely triggered by yesterday’s confirmation of the recent bullish turn in technical indicators and forecasts further gains in coming sessions. As previously mentioned today’s rally saw prices break though nearby technical resistance as well as settling just above secondary resistance at $15.490 per cwt (about $341 per ton) provided by the 50-day moving average. However, prices did pull back from session highs in last minute trading, an indication that further gains will not come easily as noted by large lot offers noted at $15.600 per cwt (about $344 per ton) today. The day’s trading range is noted as $15.345-$15.590 per cwt (about $338-$344 per ton).Wednesday, there were 412 contracts traded, down from 432 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 118 contracts to 8,728.

Tags:chicago rough rice futures, U.S. rice, U.S. rice market, U.S. rice prices

Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Brazil Real Down 0.8% Nov 07, 2013

U.S. dollar index was up +0.38% from the open today, when it traded at 80.792 at the close.

Euro was -0.67% lower today by the close, trading around 1.3422 by end of day, after trading between an intraday high of 1.3529 and low of 1.3296. The ECB announced a rate cut today, driving the currency lower.

Thai baht was weaker -0.29%, trading at 31.340 at the close of business.

Indian rupee was -0.02% weaker, trading at 62.4150.

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Brazilian real was -0.76% weaker than the open at today’s close, when it ended at 2.3061 reais per dollar.

Pakistan rupee was stronger +0.01% trading at 107.2937.

Vietnamese dong was unchanged at 21100.

Mexican peso was -0.38% weaker today, when it traded at 13.2238 pesos per dollar by the close of business today.

Chinese yuan was stronger +0.03% at 6.0915.

Argentine peso was +0.20% stronger at 5.9434 pesos per dollar.

Venezuela Rice Production May Decline Due to Rising Production Costs, USDA Post Says

Nov 07, 2013

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Government policies in Venezuela are hurting domestic production of rice and other cereals and increasing millers’ dependency on imports, according to the USDA Post in Venezuela.Venezuela’s rice acreage and production have become stagnant in the last few years, and may decrease in the coming years due to rising fertilizer and farm equipment costs. Venezuela’s average paddy rice prices stand at around 2.5 bolivar per kilogram (about $397 per ton), unchanged since April 2012, despite demands by farmers to increase it to at least 4.32 bolivar per kilogram (about $685 per ton). The USDA Post says. “Rice farmers are suffering from high costs of production due to a serious lack of basic inputs. The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better, resulting in possible contractions of planted area and a drop in production.”

The Post projects MY 2013-14 (April – March) to reach around 385,000 tons, against a consumption demand of around 665,000 tons. Rice imports in MY 2013-14 are expected to reach around 410,000 tons due to the unavailability of other food products in the country.The Post also says that rice stocks in Venezuela are “uncomfortably” low. “Rice millers are milling the last of the domestic summer harvest and are waiting for imports purchased by the government,” the Post says.

Tags: Venezuela rice production

India 2013-14 Rice Production Likely to Decline to 100 Million Tons Nov 07, 2013

India’s rice production in 2013-14 may decline to around 100 million tons, down about 5% from around 105 million tons produced in the previous year due to adverse weather conditions during the main crop season this year.India’s Central Rice Research Institute (CRRI) scientist told sources that crop damage due to cyclone Phailin is estimated at around one million tons in Odisha state alone. Losses could be significantly higher due to heavy rains that followed the cyclone and unseasonal rainfall in key rice producing states of Punjab and Haryana.Local sources say that rice yields are expected to decline in eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Assam which faced drier-than-normal weather conditions during the planting and growing state of main rice crop this year. Indian traders say that rice prices are already high due to an anticipated decline in production this year, and expect Indian rice export prices to increase in the coming months.India is the world’s largest rice exporter. India’s rice exports in FY2012-13 (April – March) stood at around 10.15 million tons. This year, India has exported around 3.52 million tons in April – July 2013.

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EU Rice Imports Grow to 1.23 Million Tons in MY 2012-13; Up 10.6% from Previous Year

Rice imports by the countries in the European Union (EU) reached a record 1.23 million tons in MY 2012-13 (October to September), up about 10.6% from around 1.11 million tons in the previous marketing year 201112.According to the European Commission, total rice imports in MY 2012-13 are the second highest in at least 12 years, below the peak of around 1.32 million tons of rice imported in 2007-08. Sharp increases in rice imports were seen in Bulgaria (up 52%) and Romania (up 13%), while rice imports by other EU members mostly remained at previous year’s levels.Most of the rice imports in MY 2012-13 comprised Indica rice which accounted for around 847,000 tons or about 69% of total rice imports in the year.

India (26.6%), Cambodia (15.8%), (Thailand15.6%), (Egypt 10%), and Pakistan (7.4%) were the main suppliers of rice (milled basis) to the EU in MY 2013-14, while major importers within the EU include the U.K., France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Bulgaria and Romania.Rice imports from Least Developed Countries (LDC) under the EBA (Everything But Arms) initiative have increased to around 215,936 tons in MY 2012-13, up about 47% from around 147,044 tons in the previous year. Rice imports from Cambodia under the EBA initiative stand at around 195,544 tons in MY 2013-14, up about 79% from previous year, while rice imports from Myanmar have declined to around 16420 tons, down about 54% from the previous year.

Global rice production in MY 2013-14 is forecast at around 474 million tons (up 1% from MY 2011-12), consumption is projected at around 473 million tons (up 1.3% from MY 2012-13), while global trade and

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ending stocks are projected at around 38 million tons (up 3% from MY 2011-12) and 110 million tons (up 2% from MY 2011-12) respectively, according to the European Commission.

Tags: EU rice imports

Iraq Tenders to Purchase 30,000 Tons of Rice Nov 07, 2013

Iraq has issued a tender to purchase 30,000 tons of long grain and medium grain rice from different origins.

According to trade sources, Iraq is seeking long grain rice from the U.S., Uruguay, Argentina, and Brazil, and medium-grain rice from Egypt, Spain, U.S., and Australia.

The last date for submission of applications is November 18, 2013 and offers should remain valid until November 22, 2013.

Tags: Iraq rice tender

Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Unchanged Overnight as Traders Look Forward to USDA Report Nov 07, 2013

Chicago rough rice futures for January delivery are currently paused unchanged at $15.375 per cwt (about $339 per ton) as of 8:30am Chicago time. The other grains are seen mostly higher this morning ahead of floor trading in Chicago: soybeans are currently seen about 0.1% lower, wheat is seen about 0.2% higher, and corn is paused about 0.2% higher.U.S. stock index futures held their gains on Thursday after U.S. economic data had the U.S. economy growing 2.8 percent in the third quarter and jobless claims falling last week, with Wall Street on track to extend its record advance. Stock futures had turned positive after the European Central Bank surprised traders by cutting its key interest rate in a bid to fend off the potential danger of deflation. Though the rate cut was not entirely unexpected, market consensus had been that the ECB probably would wait until its next meeting to cut.

The bank's move to lower the rate to 0.25 percent was enough to give a substantial boost to futures, which had been trading around even or slightly negative before the 7:45 am ET announcement. The decision came as U.S. investors look for clearer signs about where the domestic economy is heading to help figure when the Federal Reserve might start slowing its $85-billion monthly asset purchases. The U.S. central bank last week held its policy, which also includes a near-zero target for its key short-term lending rate. Thursday's data comes ahead

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of non-farm payrolls on Friday. Economists expect to see 125,000 jobs added according to economists polled by Reuters, which would be the second-lowest number of jobs added of 2013 and that the unemployment rate has ticked up to 7.3 percent from 7.2 percent. U.S. stock index futures are currently trading about 0.4% higher, gold is currently trading about 0.9% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.5% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 1% higher at 7:30am Chicago time.

Tags: chicago rough rice futures

USDA Post Lowers China 2013-14 Rice Production Forecast to 141.5 Million Tons

Nov 07, 2013

The USDA Post in Beijing has lowered China’s rice production forecast for MY2013-14 (May – April) to around 141.5 million tons, down about 500,000 tons from USDA official estimates of around 142 million tons, and down about 1% from an estimated 143 million tons produced in the previous year.The Post says that rice yield is likely to drop in key rice growing southern China regions due to drought and high temperatures in July and August, while rice acreage in China is expected to decline to around 30.4 million hectares (down from USDA official estimates of around 30.6 million hectares) as late season rice planting failed in some parts due to unfavorable weather conditions.

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However, rice consumption forecast for MY 2013-14 remains unchanged at around 146 million hectares, about 4.5 million hectares more than the production in MY 2013-14. The Post says that China will help bridge the deficit with about 3.4 million tons of rice imports (up 17% from 2.9 million tons of rice imports in MY 201213, but unchanged from previous estimates), and use around 1.45 million tons from the country’s stocks of around 46.56 million tons at the beginning of MY 2013-14.

China’s total TRQ for rice is 5.2 million tons, including around 2.6 million tons of Indica and Japonica each.

The Post says that the government restricted Japonica TRQ to help imports of Indica rice in 2013 which is about $48 per ton cheaper than domestic rice.

Tags:China rice production, China rice imports

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Cambodia Exports 294,154 Tons of Rice in January - October, 2013, Up 101% from Last Year

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Nov 07, 2013

Cambodia has exported about 28,031 tons of rice in October 2013, bringing the January-October, 2013 total to around 294,154 tons, up about 101% from the same period last year and up about 43% from the 2012 year-end total of 205,717 tons.Cambodia exported most of long grain white rice (160,319 tons) and Jasmine rice (111,071 tons) so far in this year. European markets remain the top destination for Cambodia rice export during the period as Cambodia enjoys a zero rice import duty for rice export to the EU, along with Malaysia (about 34,273 tons), Thailand (about 23,550 tons), and China (about 16,658 tons).

Tags: Cambodia rice exports

Asian rice quotes Nov 07, 2013

Asian rice quotes remained mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice Thai 5% rice is quoted around $405 - $415 per ton, about a $15 per ton premium over Viet 5% rice shown around $390 - $400 per ton.

Indian 5% rice is quoted around $410 - $420 per ton, about a $40 per ton premium over Pak 5% rice quoted around $370 - $380 per ton.

25% Broken Rice Thai 25% rice is quoted about $390 - $400 per ton, about a $30 per ton premium over Viet 25% rice shown around $360 - $370 per ton.

Indian 25% rice is quoted about $370 - $380 per ton, about a $35 per ton premium over Pak 25% rice quoted around $335 - $345 per ton.

Parboiled Rice Thai parboiled rice is quoted around $440 - $450 per ton.

Indian parboiled rice is quoted around $385 - $395 per ton, about a $30 per ton discount to Pak parboiled rice quoted around $415 - $425 per ton.

100% Broken Rice Thai broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted around $345 - $355 per ton, about a $5 per ton premium over Viet broken rice shown around $340 - $350 per ton.

Indian broken sortexed rice is quoted about $310 - $320 per ton, about a $25 per ton discount to Pak broken sortexed rice quoted around $335 - $345 per ton.

Tags: Asia rice quotes, Thailand rice quotes, Vietnam rice quotes, Pakistan rice quotes, India rice quotes

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Oryza Quick Glance at MDA Rice Crop Weather Update Nov 07, 2013

Oryza shares some of MDA’s latest rice crop weather updates: Rainfall may disrupt harvesting activities in South China this week, but harvest progress is likely to improve in other regions.

Heavy rainfall is likely to cause additional harvest delays in Japan this week.

Drier weather is expected to favor harvesting in Thailand this week.

Heavy rainfall in north-central Vietnam is expected to slow down harvest this week.

Heavy rainfall may disrupt harvesting activities in southeastern areas of the Philippines this week.

Dryness concerns remain in central and eastern Java in Indonesia this week.

Drier weather will continue to favor harvest in India and Bangladesh this week.

Rainfall will favor rice crop in Nigeria and Cameroon this week.

Rainfall may slow down harvesting activities in the U.S. this week.

Rainfall will favor rice crop in most parts of Brazil this week.

For more complete weather information, contact: www.mdaus.com.

Tags: Weekly weather report for rice pdf:

MDA Weather.pdf

Oryza Global Rice Quotes November 7th, 2013 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 415-425 Vietnam 5% broken 390-400 ↔ India 5% broken 410-420 ↔ Pakistan 5% broken 370-380 ↔ Cambodia 5% broken 445-455 ↔ U.S. 4% broken 595-605 ↔ Uruguay 5% broken 615-625 ↔ Argentina 5% broken 615-625 ↔

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Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken 390-400 ↔ Vietnam 25% broken 360-370 ↔ Pakistan 25% broken 335-345 ↔ Cambodia 25% broken 415-425 India 25% broken 370-380 ↔ U.S. 15% broken 575-585 ↔

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Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 440-450 Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 India parboiled 5% broken stxd 385-395 U.S. parboiled 4% broken 660-670 ↔ Brazil parboiled 5% broken 590-600 ↔ Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔ Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% 1050-1060 Vietnam Jasmine 565-575 ↔ India basmati 2% broken 1515 -1525 Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Cambodia Pkha Malis 920-930 ↔ Brokens Thailand A1 Super 345-355 ↔ Vietnam 100% broken 340-350 Pakistan 100% broken stxd 335-345 Cambodia A1 Super 380-390 ↔ India 100% Broken stxd 310-320 Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔ U.S. pet food 370-380 ↔ Brazil half grain 345-355 ↔ Medium grain milled U.S. Calrose 4% broken Egypt medium grain 6%

620-630 NQ ↔

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↔ All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

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