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3rd December , 2013

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Vietnam Exports 6.1 Million Tons of Rice in January – November 2013; Down 14% from Last Year

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Dec 02, 2013

Vietnam’s rice exports in January – November 2013 stand at around 6.1 million tons, down about 14% from around 7.1 million tons exported during the same period in 2012. Last month, the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) lowered this year’s rice export target from 7.5 million tons to 6.7 million tons.Vietnam was the world’s second largest rice exporter in 2012 with exports of around 7.7 million tons. However, 2013 exports have remained lower than last year despite lower prices. Average Vietnam rice export price in January – November

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2013 stands at around $431 per ton (FOB), down about 5.5% from about $456 per ton seen during the same period last year.According to VFA, Vietnam’s monthly rice exports in November reached the lowest since February 2013 partly due to higher prices last month. In November 2013, Vietnam exported about 410,423 tons of rice, down about 34% from November 2012 and down about 24% from October 2013. Average rice export price in November 2013 stood at about $443 per ton (FOB), down about 5% from November 2012, but the highest since January 2013.According to VFA, domestic paddy prices in the Mekong Delta for common stock stand at around VND 5,600 - 5,750 per kilogram (about $261 - $268 per ton, using current exchange rates). Vietnamese 5% broken domestic rice prices stand at around VND 7,600 - 7,700 per kilogram (about $354 $359 per ton, using current exchange rates), while Vietnamese 25% broken rice prices stand at around VND 7,300 - 7,400 per kilogram (about $340 - $345 per ton, using current exchange rates). Tags: Vietnam rice exports, Vietnam Food Association (VFA)

Vietnam Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes; Thailand, Pakistan Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes Dec 02, 2013

Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice and 25% broken rice by about $5 per ton each to about $425 - $435 per ton and $395 - $405 per ton respectively today. Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for A1 super broken rice and Hommali rice by about $5 per ton and $55 per ton respectively to about $335 $345 per ton and $995 - $1,005 per ton respectively. Pakistan rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice and 100% broken rice by about $5 per ton each to about $370 - $380 per ton and $325 - $335 per ton respectively. India rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged. 5% Broken Rice Thai 5% rice is quoted around $390 - $400 per ton, about a $35 per ton discount to Viet 5% rice shown around $425 - $435 per ton, up about $5 per ton from Friday. Indian 5% rice is quoted around $410 - $420 per ton, about a $40 per ton premium over Pak 5% rice quoted around $370 - $380 per ton, down about $5 per ton from Friday. 25% Broken Rice Thai 25% rice is quoted about $370 - $380 per ton, about a $25 per ton discount to Viet 25% rice shown around $395 - $405 per ton, up about $5 per ton from Friday. Indian 25% rice is quoted about $370 - $380 per ton, about a $35 per ton premium over Pak 25% rice quoted around $335 - $345 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thai parboiled rice is quoted around $460 - $470 per ton. Indian parboiled rice is quoted around $390 - $400 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount to Pak parboiled rice quoted around $405 - $415 per ton. 100% Broken Rice

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Thai broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted around $335 - $345 per ton, down about $5 per ton from Friday and about a $30 per ton discount to Viet broken rice shown around $365 - $375 per ton. Indian broken sortexed rice is quoted about $310 - $320 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount to Pak broken sortexed rice quoted around $325 - $335 per ton, down about $5 per ton from Friday. Tags: Asia rice quotes, India rice quotes, Thailand rice quotes, Pakistan rice quotes, Vietnam rice quotes

India Rice Prices Reach Record High in November 2013; Up 20% from Last Year

Dec 02, 2013

Average wholesale rice prices in India continue to soar, reaching around Rs. 2,931 per quintal in November 2013, up about 7% from around Rs. 2,750 per quintal in October 2013, and up about 20% from around Rs. 2,441 per quintal in November 2012. Current average wholesale rice prices are the highest since at least January 2011 and probably the highest on record, according to official sources.In terms of USD per ton, average wholesale rice prices in India stand at about $473 per ton (using current exchange rates) in November 2013, up about 5% from around $451 per ton (using historical exchange rates) in October 2013, and up about 5% from around $450 per ton (using historical exchange rates) seen in November 2012.Harvest of the main rice crop is going on in India, but local traders say rice prices are likely to remain high in the coming months and probably

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surge higher later next year due to lower anticipated production and continued exports. India’s 2013-14 rice production is estimated to fall about 5% from around 105 million tons produced in 2012-13 due to the adverse impact of consecutive cyclones in October – November 2013. Last week, the Indian government extended stockholding limit for rice and paddy under the Essential Commodities Act for another year until November 2014 to prevent hoarding. However, rice exporters with government licenses are exempt from the limit until November 2014. The government said, ―This [exemption] will help exporters benefit from economies of scale and bigger operation for optimally meeting export demands on a long-term basis.‖Maximum limit of stock for rice in India is decided by the state governments. In 2009, the northern state of Punjab had fixed 500 tons limit for rice wholesalers and 50 tons limit for retailers to control rice prices. Tags: India rice prices

Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Begin Week on Positive Note as Prices Test Psychological Resistance at $16.000 Dec 02, 2013

Chicago rough rice futures for January delivery are currently paused 3 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) higher at $15.990 per cwt (about $353 per ton) as of 8:00am Chicago time. The other grains are seen mostly higher this morning ahead of floor trading in Chicago: soybeans are currently seen about 0.3% higher, wheat is seen about 0.5% higher, and corn is paused about 0.4% lower.U.S. stock index futures pointed to a flat-to-lower open on Monday, following a third month of gains for equities, with a bumper week of data ahead, culminating in Friday's non-farm payrolls. The big release on Monday will be the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing survey for November at 10 a.m. ET, with construction spending for October and November also due. Analysts polled by Reuters see the ISM coming in at 55.0, narrowly down on October's 56.4. Outside of the data flow, the day's "Cyber Monday" sales — when post-Thanksgiving internet sales typically spike — will provide an early clue as to the strength of the U.S. holiday shopping season. French and Spanish indexes were lower in early trade after euro zone PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data showed that business activity fell in France and Spain in November. Overall though, manufacturing in the euro zone accelerated at its fastest pace in two-and-a-half years during the month, helped by a ramp-up in production. U.S. stock index futures are currently trading about 0.1% lower, gold is currently trading about 1% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.6% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.2% higher at 8:00am Chicago time. Tags: chicago rough rice futures

India Winter Rice Crop Planting Area Reaches 106,000 Hectares; Up 22% from Last Year Dec 02, 2013

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Planting area under India’s Rabi rice (winter) crop has reached around 106,000 hectares as of November 29, 2013, up about 22% from around 87,000 hectares recorded during the same time last year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. India’s Rabi rice crop accounts for about 10 – 15% of total annual rice production in the country.India’s total Rabi planting area (including rice and other grains) stands at around 39.6 million hectares, up about 6% from around 37.5 million hectares during this time last year. Tags: India rice planting area

Weather Disturbances Hurt Philippines Self Sufficiency in Rice Goal Dec 02, 2013

Rice imports by the Philippines are likely to surge in 2014 and remain high in the coming years due to the adverse impact of typhoons, according to new estimates by the government.According to revised estimates by the Department of Agriculture (DA), the Philippines paddy rice production in 2013 is estimated at around 18.58 million tons, down about 7% from the targeted 20 million tons under the government’s Food Staples Sufficiency Program (FSSP). In 2014, paddy rice production is now estimated at around 19.32 million tons, down about 8% from the targeted 21 million tons.According to the FAO, rice imports by the Philippines are expected to increase around 20% to around 1.2 million tons. However, trade sources say that rice imports could

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increase to around 2 million tons in 2014.Up to 2 million tons of paddy rice is estimated to be damaged due to Typhoon Haiyan which struck the Philippines in October 2013. Government sources say that two or three more typhoons could hit the Philippines in December.Agriculture Undersecretary says rice production in the Philippines can grow at a rate of around 4% in the next three years despite weather disturbances, but this falls short of over 6% growth rate targeted under the FFSP. He also told local sources that strong typhoons have become a regular occurrence and the government must review the FSSP taking losses due to such weather disturbances into account. Tags: Philippines Rice Production

India Winter Rice Crop Planting Area Reaches 106,000 Hectares; Up 22% from Last Year Dec 02, 2013

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Planting area under India’s Rabi rice (winter) crop has reached around 106,000 hectares as of November 29, 2013, up about 22% from around 87,000 hectares recorded during the same time last year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. India’s Rabi rice crop accounts for about 10 – 15% of total annual rice production in the country.India’s total Rabi planting area (including rice and other grains) stands at around 39.6 million hectares, up about 6% from around 37.5 million hectares during this time last year. Tags: India rice planting area

North Korea 2013-14 Rice Production Forecast to Reach 1.9 Million Tons Dec 02, 2013

North Korea’s rice production in 2013-14 (November – October) is expected to reach around 1.915 million tons (basis milled), according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).The FAO says that domestic rice production is likely to meet a major part of the consumption demand of around 1.930 million tons in North Korea this year. Rice yields are likely to increase about 11% from last year due to favorable weather conditions, while acreage in 2013 is estimated at around 546,697 hectares, down about 3% from around 563,237 hectares in the previous year.Overall crop production in North Korea is estimated to reach around 5.03 million tons (including rice in milled basis) in 2013-14, up about 5% from the previous year. Foodgrain consumption in North Korea in 2013-14 is expected to reach around 5.37 million tons, which suggests an import requirement of

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around 340,000 tons. The FAO estimates a food deficit of around 40,000 tons in 2013-14 considering the official import target for cereals is 300,000 tons. However, this is an improvement in North Korea's food availability. ―This food gap is the narrowest in many years, and is mainly due to the higher 2013 production,‖ FAO says. Tags: North Korea rice production

Colombia Domestic Rice Prices Decline in November 2013; Down 18% from Last Year Dec 02, 2013

Average white rice prices in Colombia declined to around 1.872 million pesos per ton as of November 25, 2013, down about 1% from around 1.895 million pesos per ton recorded in the previous month, and down about 18% from around 2.284 million pesos per ton in November 2012, according to the Federación Nacional de Arroceros

(FedeArroz).

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In terms of USD per ton, average white rice prices in Colombia stand at around $972 per ton (using current exchange rates) as of November 25, 2013, down about 3.5% from around $1,008 per ton in October 2013, and down about 22.5% from around $1,255 per ton (using historical exchange rates) recorded in November 2013.Average green paddy rice prices in Colombia stood at around 888,838 pesos per ton as of November 25, 2013, down slightly from around 896,443 pesos per ton in the previous month and down about 17% from around 1.072 million pesos per ton in November 2012.In terms of USD per ton, average paddy rice prices in Colombia stand at around $461 per ton (using current exchange rates) as of November 25, 2013, down about 3.5% from around $477 per ton (using historical exchange rates) in the previous month, but down about 22% from around $589 (using historical exchange rates) per ton in November 2012. Tags: colombia rice prices

Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Close Lower, Despite Early Session Rally Which Saw Prices Pierce $16.000 per cwt Level Dec 02, 2013

Chicago rough rice futures for January delivery settled 6 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $15.900 per cwt (about $351 per ton). Rough rice futures got off to a negative start for the week as they were unable to build on momentum noted on Friday. Although prices did momentarily manage to break through psychological resistance noted at $16.000 per cwt (about $353 per ton) the bulls were unable to maintain these levels and the morning rally was short lived. Negativity noted in neighboring grain pits likely spilled over into the rice market. The other grains traded flat to lower today; soybeans finished the day about 1.1% lower at $13.2125 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.1% lower at $6.6275 per bushel; and corn finished the day unchanged at $4.2450 per bushel.U.S. stocks wavered between small gains and losses on Monday as the holiday shopping season got off to a lackluster start and a gauge of manufacturing found the sector expanded far more than expected in November. But the overall holiday shopping season got off to a more tepid start. The National Retail Federation estimated that retail sales fell by 2.7% during the full Thanksgiving weekend to $57.4 billion. The Dow Jones Industrial Average meandered between small rises and falls, with its 30 components roughly split between positive and negative territory. The S&P 500 also fluctuated, with financials the best performing and telecommunications faring the worst among its 10 major industry groups. After rising for six consecutive sessions, the Nasdaq also wavered on either side of unchanged. U.S. stock markets are currently trading down about 0.1%, gold is trading about 2.3% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.3% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.3% higher at about 2:00pm Chicago time.Looking to the daily continuation chart of Chicago rough rice futures for January delivery, although the market got off to a strong start this morning the bulls were unable to maintain prices above the closely watched $16.000 per cwt (about $353 per ton) level and they quickly retreated below this point. Some will point to today’s chart formation as a possible reversal signal as the bull’s early advances were erased and prices were dragged lower to close near the session low of $15.880 per cwt (about $350 per ton). Tomorrow’s action will be a key indicator if the market has indeed put in place a nearby high and has reversed direction. Technically the outlook remains positive as the short-term bullish trend remains intact and prices remain in technically bullish territory.

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The upper Bollinger band acts as the current price objective at $16.100 per cwt (about $355 per ton). Today’s trading range is noted as $15.880-$16.010 per cwt (about $350-$353 per ton). Friday, there were 1,154 contracts traded, up from 328 contracts traded on Wednesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Friday increased by 95 contracts to 8,436. Tags: chicago rough rice futures, U.S. rice prices, U.S. rice market

Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Brazil Real, Mexico Peso Trade Down Dec 02, 2013

U.S. dollar index was up +0.30% from the open today, when it traded at 80.925 at the close. Euro was weaker -0.38% today by the close, trading around 1.3539 by end of day, after trading between an intraday high of 1.3616 and low of 1.3526. Spanish economic data disappointed investors, weighing down the euro. Thai baht was weaker -0.40%, trading at 32.180 at the close of business. Indian rupee was +0.21% stronger, trading at 62.3200. Brazilian real was -0.73% weaker than the open at today’s close, when it ended at 2.3533 reais per dollar. Pakistan rupee was -0.02% weaker trading at 108.4975. Vietnamese dong was +0.09% stronger, trading at 21100. Mexican peso was -0.67% weaker today, when it traded at 13.1976 pesos per dollar by the close of business today. Chinese yuan was +0.01% stronger at 6.0933. Argentine peso was -0.28% weaker at 6.1580 pesos per dollar. Tags: foreign exchange rates

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Market Unchanged as Participants Return from Thanksgiving Holiday Dec 02, 2013

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The U.S. cash market was unchanged today with little trade activity to report as participants return from the Thanksgiving holiday.As of today, offers remain unchanged near $15.65-$16.66 per fob farm (about $345-$367 per ton), depending on where they are located in the U.S. mid-South, for December through January shipment. Bids from larger mills could be found around $15.35 per cwt (about $338 per ton) while bids from exporters were unchanged around $15.56 per cwt (about $343 per ton), both for December through January delivery, however there were reports of bids as high as $15.85 per cwt (about $349 per ton) although no trades were reported.In the meantime, today the USDA reported that cumulative net export sales for the week ending on November 21st, totaled 70,500 tons with increases reported for the following destinations including: 21,100 tons to Mexico; 18,700 tons to Haiti; 12,500 tons to Guatemala; 6,200 tons to Jordan; and 3,700 tons to Canada.U.S. rice exporters shipped 38,300 tons with the primary destinations including: 16,700 tons to Haiti; 8,700 tons to the United Kingdom; 4,300 tons to Mexico; 2,800 tons to Canada; and 1,100 tons to Costa Rica. Tags: U.S. rice prices, U.S. rice market

Oryza Quick Glance at World News Dec 02, 2013

Financial Times – *Suthep Thaugsuban, the leader of Thailand's anti-government protests, issued the deadline for Yingluck Shinawatra to leave office after police fought back protesters who tried to storm the premier’s office and other high-profile buildings on Sunday, deepening the political crisis in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy. *BP is expecting a surge in compensation payments over the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster, after a slowdown that has lasted almost two months. The company revealed in a court filing just before the Thanksgiving holiday last week that it had been told payments for businesses’ economic losses, which had been held up since an appeal court ruling at the beginning of October, were about to restart. *China hailed the successful launch of a moon rover in the early hours of Monday, in a project that the government hopes will catapult its plans to put a man on the moon sometime after 2020 and explore deeper regions of space. *Viktor Yanukovich, Ukraine’s president was under escalating pressure on Sunday night as hundreds of thousands of protesters poured onto the streets of Kiev demanding the overthrow of his government, after it sought to strengthen relations with Russia at the expense of the EU. *Japanese politicians will take up their anxieties over China’s controversial new air defense zone with U.S. vice-president Joe Biden on Tuesday, as the country looks to bolster international support for its opposition to the move. *U.S. retail sales are likely to be down on last year in the four days from Thanksgiving to Sunday despite the early opening of stores and a surge in online spending, according to initial estimates. The National Retail Federation expects that total spending over the long holiday weekend – when some stores opened earlier than ever-on Thanksgiving night – to drop to $57.4 billion from $59 billion last year. *U.K. Prime Minister, David Cameron, has defended his call for a trade agreement between the EU and China as he landed in China at the beginning of a three-day trade trip. Speaking to journalists on the trip to Beijing, the U.K. prime minister admitted that his backing for the Chinese government’s calls for a free trade deal between

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the two blocs would be resisted by some European powers, but said he intended to push the plan through anyway. *ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steelmaker by sales, expects to turn round quickly the performance of the Alabama plant it acquired at the weekend from Germany’s ThyssenKrupp by capitalizing on a growing U.S. car steel market. Wall Street Journal*GrainCorp Ltd suffered its second blow in almost as many days when its chief executive quit in the wake of Australia's rejection of a 3 billion Australian dollar (U.S. $2.7 billion) takeover bid by U.S. agribusiness Archer Daniels Midland Co. *Canadian police said they have arrested and charged a man with attempting to pass on classified military information to the Chinese government, in what could be the first case around alleged Chinese espionage prosecuted in Canada. *Sugar mills in India's largest sugar-producing state, Uttar Pradesh, said Sunday that they would end a protest of state-controlled prices and begin refining again. *India's GDP during the July to September quarter rose 4.8% from a year earlier, up from the 4.4% expansion in the preceding quarter. The growth was slightly better than market expectations. A poll of 17 economists by The Wall Street Journal had predicted 4.6% growth. *Japan's capital spending fell 0.5% from April-June on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Finance Ministry's quarterly survey of Japanese corporations. The data suggest Japan's July-September economic growth may be revised down from an already paltry 1.9% annualized pace, as reported on a preliminary basis November 14. *The U.S. agreed to destroy Syria's most lethal chemical weapons on a ship in international waters, an unprecedented operation, after Washington was unable to enlist other countries to undertake the task on their own soil. *Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Afghan President Hamid Karzai claimed progress this weekend in efforts to bring Afghanistan's Taliban insurgency to the negotiating table but gave few specifics about how they planned to advance the peace process. *The deadline for a response to search giant Google Inc.’s proposals to fix antitrust concerns voiced by this antitrust watchdog has been extended for some companies, a European Commission source confirmed Wednesday. New York Times*Indonesia posted a small and unexpected trade surplus in October after the central bank tightened monetary policy to slow the economy and imports, a policy likely to remain in place to stem the risk of outflows once U.S. tapering kicks in. The trade surplus was $50 million (£30,454,379.34) in October, data from the statistics bureau showed on Monday, compared with an expected deficit of $650 million in a Reuters poll of economists. *Afghan President Hamid Karzai accused his U.S. ally on Sunday of withholding military supplies to press him to sign a bilateral security deal that will shape the U.S. military presence after most foreign troops leave in 2014. *The U.S. may see further sovereign rating downgrades if it fails to improve its debt service capability, although a near-term cut looks unlikely, the head of Chinese credit rating firm Dagong said.

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*Ministers meeting in the Indonesian resort of Bali from Tuesday until Friday will decide the fate of the World Trade Organization, with two possible outcomes: a global trade agreement, the first since the WTO was created in 1995, or a failure that kills off the Doha round of trade talks and casts the WTO into obsolescence. *A suburban New York train derailed on Sunday, killing four people and injuring 63, including 11 critically, when all seven cars of a Metro-North train ran off the tracks on a sharp curve, officials said.*The U.S. Navy's first advanced P-8 Poseidon patrol aircraft has arrived in Japan, the start of a deployment that will upgrade America's ability to hunt submarines and other vessels in seas close to China as tension in the region mounts. Tags: World news

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