30th january,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

January 30, 2015 Volume 5, Issue I

Daily Exclusive ORYZA

Rice

www.ricepluss.com E-Newsletter

Chief Editor:Hamlik For Advertisement & Specs:

Mujahid Ali mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com

Cell: +92 321 36 92874

Compiled & Edited by

Riceplus Magazine www.ricepluss.com

News‌

Vietnam Urged to Lead Rice Research in Southeast Asia Jan 30, 2015

Vietnam's Mekong Delta Rice Research Institute (MRRI) has been urged to lead rice research programs in the Southeast region, according to local sources.Speaking at the 30th anniversary of the MRRI on January 29, 2015, the president of Vietnam said the MRRI should strive to master cutting-edge technologies in rice production and lead the Southeast Asian region in developing new highyielding varieties of rice.He noted that the institute should develop modern approaches to rice cultivation, conduct training courses and help farmers in equipping with the knowledge of new technologies, build safe and high-tech production zones for rice production, and strive for strong and comprehensive rice production sector in the Page 1 of 12

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www.ricepluss.com country.The President hailed the institute for playing a vital role in increasing the country's rice production from a mere 4.2 million tons in 1976 to around 25 million tons last year. He noted that the MRRI's role in making Vietnam one of the World's top rice exporters is indispensible.

China's Agricultural Products are "Generally Safe and Reliable," Says Agriculture Ministry Official Jan 29, 2015

In a response to global media reports of China's increasing appetite for imported rice, amid concerns about the quality of the nation's domestic rice, the China's Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) Chief Economist defended the country's agricultural products saying they are "generally safe and reliable." In a news release on the MOA website, the Ministry's Chief Economist noted that, "The Chinese government attaches great importance to quality and safety of agricultural products . Currently the overall quality of China's agricultural products are safe and reliable, people's consumption is guaranteed."He stated that the Ministry ensures that all the agricultural products pass through a vigorous testing criteria and over 96% of agricultural products passed quality tests in 2014.The MOA Chief Economist also noted that in 2014, China imported around 2.58 million tons of rice, with Thailand (around 750,000 tons) and Vietnam (around 1.352 million tons) accounting for major share. Imports from Japan accounted for very little amount.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Rally on Pit Open but Give Back Most of the Gains Earned by Close of Session Jan 29, 2015

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www.ricepluss.com Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery settled 12.5 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) higher at $10.860 per cwt (about $239 per ton). The other grains finished the day with mixed results; Soybeans closed about 0.2% lower at $9.6825 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.5% higher at $5.0875 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.5% lower at $3.7150 per bushel.U.S. stocks gained on Thursday, bouncing back from a a two-day rout, as investors mulled earnings from corporations including Ford Motor and data that had a less-than-expected number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits.

Stock futures added to gains after the Labor Department reported jobless claims dropped by 43,000 to 265,000 last week, fewer than forecast and the lowest number in nearly 15 years.

However, the week included the Martin Luther King holiday, increasing the volatility of the numbers. Stocks offered muted reaction to another report that had pending-home sales dropping 3.7% in December. After falling as much as 55 points and rising 147, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lately up 128.47 points, or 0.7%, at 17,319.84.

Reversing after a drop under 2,000, the S&P 500 added 7.33 points, or 0.4%, to 2,009.49, with utilities leading gains and energy the sole laggard among its 10 major sectors. The Nasdaq advanced 10.03 points, or 0.2%, to 4,647.96. Gold is trading about 2.4% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.4% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.4% higher at about 1:30pm Chicago time.Wednesday, there were 772 contracts traded, up from 412 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday increased by 6 contracts to 9,054.

Global Rice Quotes January 30th, 2015 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 415-425 Vietnam 5% broken 355-365 India 5% broken 395-405 Pakistan 5% broken 355-365 Myanmar 5% broken 410-420 Cambodia 5% broken 440-450 U.S. 4% broken 495-505 Uruguay 5% broken NQ ↔ Argentina 5% broken NQ ↔ Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken 365-375 Vietnam 25% broken 325-335

↔ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔

↔ ↓ Page 3 of 12

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www.ricepluss.com Pakistan 25% broken Cambodia 25% broken India 25% broken U.S. 15% broken

320-330 420-430 360-370 485-495

↔ ↔ ↔ ↔

Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 410-420 ↔ Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 400-410 India parboiled 5% broken stxd 390-400 ↔ U.S. parboiled 4% broken 550-560 ↔ Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔ Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔ Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% 925-935 Vietnam Jasmine 460-470 ↓ India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Cambodia Phka Mails 785-795 ↔

↔

↔

Brokens Thailand A1 Super 320-330 ↔ Vietnam 100% broken 305-315 ↔ Pakistan 100% broken stxd 290-300 Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔ India 100% broken stxd 295-305 Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔ U.S. pet food 405-415 ↔ Brazil half grain NQ ↔

↔ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Oryza Global Weather Outlook Jan 29, 2015

Rain showers are expected across the Yangtze Valley and some parts of western-south China this week. Rice planting is expecting to begin in March.

Light rain is expected across northern India this week.

A few rain showers are expected across northern Pakistan this week.

Weather is expected to remain dry in Bangladesh.

In Indonesia, rain is expected across central and southern Sumatra, Kalimantan, East Malaysia, Sulawesi, and Java this week, beneficial for the main season rice there.

A few showers are expected in central and northern Vietnam this week.

Weather is expected to remain dry in Thailand, favouring second season rice planting there.

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www.ricepluss.com Light rain is expected in south-eastern Philippines this week, maintain abundant moisture but continue to slow second crop harvesting there.

Rain is expected across central portions of centre-south Brazil this week, with a few showers also expected in north-western portions of the Northeast Brazil. Dryness is continue in much of the northeast, stressing early growth of the rice there.

A few rain showers are expected across much of the region in Argentina and Uruguay this week, maintaining abundant moisture there.

In the U.S., rain showers are expected across much of the Mississippi River Delta this week.

Rice planting is expecting to begin in April.

Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Rocket Higher as Trader Sentiment Turns Bullish Jan 29, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery are currently listed 23 cents per cwt (about $5 per ton) higher at $10.965 per cwt (about $242 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are all seen lower: soybeans are currently seen about 0.1% lower, wheat is listed about 0.1% lower and corn is currently noted about 1.1% lower.U.S. stocks dropped on Thursday, extending a two-day rout, as investors mulled earnings from corporations including Ford Motor and data that had a less-than-expected number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits.

Stock futures added to gains after the Labor Department reported jobless claims dropped by 43,000 to 265,000 last week, fewer than forecast and the lowest number in nearly 15 years.

However, the week included the Martin Luther King holiday, increasing the volatility of the numbers. Stocks offered muted reaction to another report that had pending-home sales dropping 3.7 percent in December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 56.07 points, or 0.3%, to 17,247.44. The S&P 500 declined 4.25 points, or 0.3%, to 2,006.41, with consumer discretionary the strongest performer and energy the worst of its 10 major sectors. The Nasdaq dropped 6.82 points, or 0.2%, to 4,631.17. Gold is currently trading about 1.8% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.2% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading marginally higher at 8:30am Chicago time.

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India Basmati Rice Prices May Decline Further as Traders are Likely to Resort to Distress Sales Jan 29, 2015

India basmati prices, which already declined by about 40% to below $900 per ton from around $1,400 per ton last year, are expected to decline further due to low export demand and increasing inventories, according to local sources. Farmers increased basmati rice acreage in the 2014 kharif rice season by about 40% to around 3.5 million hectare from around 2.5 million hectares in anticipation of higher prices similar to those last year. Now, the output has increased to around 8.5 million tons from around 6.25 million tons last year.

However, basmati rice import ban by Iran, which is India's major basmati rice importer, citing adequate stocks as reason, has severely impacted basmati export demand and consecutively prices. Traders and Exporters are unable to sell their inventories domestically also as buyers are waiting for prices to still come down.

A delegation from Indian Commerce Ministry may reportedly visit Iran to convince the Iranian authorities over reviving rice imports.Analysts are expecting prices to go down further as traders and exporters may resort to distress selling to reduce their stocks. They are also expecting basmati rice acreage to decline in the 2015 kharif season significantly.

India exported around 2.19 tons of basmati in the first eight months of FY 2014-15 (April November), according to data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), while the sub-continent exported 3.76 million tons of basmati rice in FY 2013-14 (April - March). At the current pace, basmati rice exports in FY 2014-15 are expected to decline by about 10% to around 3.4 million tons.

India basmati prices, which already declined by about 40% to below $900 per ton from around $1,400 per ton last year, are expected to decline further due to low export demand and increasing inventories, according to local sources.Farmers increased basmati rice acreage in the 2014 kharif Page 6 of 12

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www.ricepluss.com rice season by about 40% to around 3.5 million hectare from around 2.5 million hectares in anticipation of higher prices similar to those last year. Now, the output has increased to around 8.5 million tons from around 6.25 million tons last year.

However, basmati rice import ban by Iran, which is India's major basmati rice importer, citing adequate stocks as reason, has severely impacted basmati export demand and consecutively prices. Traders and Exporters are unable to sell their inventories domestically also as buyers are waiting for prices to still come down.A delegation from Indian Commerce Ministry may reportedly visit Iran to convince the Iranian authorities over reviving rice imports.

Analysts are expecting prices to go down further as traders and exporters may resort to distress selling to reduce their stocks. They are also expecting basmati rice acreage to decline in the 2015 kharif season significantly.India exported around 2.19 tons of basmati in the first eight months of FY 2014-15 (April - November), according to data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), while the sub-continent exported 3.76 million tons of basmati rice in FY 2013-14 (April - March). At the current pace, basmati rice exports in FY 2014-15 are expected to decline by about 10% to around 3.4 million tons.

Guinea 2015 Rice Imports Estimated at 320,000 Tons; Up 7% from 2014 Jan 29, 2015

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has estimated Guinea's 2015 rice, basis milled, imports at around 320,000 tons, up about 7% from around 300,000 tons in 2014.

The probable increase in imports is attributed to shortfalls in 2014 production levels that occurred due to the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak.The FAO estimates the country's total cereal import needs at around 444,000, slightly up from last year.Harvesting of rice crop is likely to complete soon. The FAO estimates Guinea's 2014 milled rice production at around 1.31 million tons (around 1.971 million tons, basis paddy), down about 4% from around 1.355 million tons (around 2.053 million tons, basis paddy) last year. The EVD outbreak began at the planting stage and continued till harvesting disrupting various farming activities and impacting the overall rice production in the country. The government's measures to control the Page 7 of 12

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www.ricepluss.com outbreak of EVD led to shortfalls in labour and agricultural inputs leading to a decline in production.In Guinea, rice is the most significant crop and is grown in about 80% of agricultural land. Much of the decline in production has occurred majorly due to border closures with neighboring countries such as Senegal, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea-Bissau; restrictions/ban of people movement; people fleeing the country; and reluctance of labor to work in groups.According to the FAO, prices of local rice declined in several market in recent months due to increased supplies from ongoing harvests, but prices of imported rice remained stable across the country.Guinea produces about 80% of the rice needed for its annual domestic consumption and imports the rest. USDA estimates Guinea to produce about 1.45 million tons of rice and import about 340,000 tons to meet a demand of about 1.65 million tons in MY 2014-15 (October - September).

Bangladesh Promotes Zinc-Enriched Rice Variety Jan 29, 2015

The new zinc-enriched and high-yielding paddy rice variety BRRI-Dhan-64, developed by the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) is being popularized among farmers in the ongoing boro crop season (January - May), according to local sources. The variety has been developed specifically for boro season.The new variety, which was approved by the National Seed Board for commercial cultivation in 2014, is being tried in about 75 acres (30 hectares) in three districts - Jhenidah, Magura and Jessore - according to the Additional Director of the Department of Agricultural Extension in Jessore region.

BRRI scientists claim that BRRI-Dhan 64, which is developed through cross pollination with a local variety, can be harvested within 100 days of planting and can yield up to 31 maunds per bigha (around 7.2 tons per hectare) if nurtured properly.They say, the new variety contains about 24 milligrams of zinc per kilogram, while other local varieties contain only 9-12 milligrams. It is said to effectively fight zinc and protein deficiency in human body, especially among women and children. It is also capable of fighting stunted growth as well as diarrhoea and pneumoniainduced childhood deaths in children.

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www.ricepluss.com The government distributed another zinc-enriched variety BRRI Dhan-62 to about 10,000 farmers during the 2014 Aman (May - December) season. Bangladesh produced around 34.449 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 51.42 million tons, basis paddy), in FY 2013-14 (July June), up about 2.7% from around 33.833 million tons (around 50.5 million tons, basis paddy) produced in FY 2012-13, according to Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE) data.USDA estimates Bangladesh to produce around 34.6 million tons of milled rice (around 51.91 million tons, basis paddy) in MY 2014-15 (May - April), up about 1% from an estimated 34.39 million tons (around 51.59 million tons, basis paddy) in MY 2013-14. It estimates Bangladesh to import around 500,000 tons of rice in 2015, down about 26% from an estimated 678,000 tons in 2014.

Thai Rice Auction Receives Overwhelming Response with 100 Bidders Jan 29, 2015

Thailand's auction to sell around one million tons of rice, including 850,000 tons of 5% broken rice and 150,000 tons of jasmine rice, worth 11.7 billion baht (around $360 million) has received an overwhelming response, according to local sources.The government auctioned rice from 168 warehouses in 36 provinces. Nearly 100 bidders, including traders, exporters, millers and retailers, participated in the bidding process held by the Foreign Trade Department.The huge response is attributed to some changes made to the bidding rules. Last week, the government fixed floor prices for both white rice and jasmine rice below the market prices.

The government reportedly fixed floor price for white rice at around 8-10 baht per kilogram (around $245-$307 per ton), while the market price is quoted at around 13 baht per kilogram (around $399 per ton). On the other hand, the government has fixed the floor price for Hom Mali rice at around 20-21 baht per kilogram (around $613-$644 per ton) compared to market price of around 31-33 baht per kilogram (around $950-$1,012 per ton).Many traders told local sources that low floor prices encouraged even small traders to participate in the bidding. Also the government allowed interested bidders to inspect the quality of rice in the warehouses before the bidding itself.

Results of the auction are yet to be known. Bids equal to or above floor prices are expected to be accepted, according to local sources. However, experts are expecting global rice prices to decline following this tender due to increased supplies.The Thai Commerce Ministry is keen on selling Page 9 of 12

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www.ricepluss.com around 10 million tons of stockpiled rice in 2015 and around 7 million tons in 2016 through tenders. Thailand's military government sold around 681,740 tons of rice in last four auctions raising around 6.36 billion baht (around $195 million) after it took charge on May 22, 2014. The Thai government currently holds around 17.8 million tons of rice in its stockpiles.Thailand exported around 10.8 million tons of rice in 2014, up about 64% from around 6.6 million tons in 2013.

Philippines NFA Considers More Incentives for Farmers Instead of Raising Paddy Procurement Price Jan 29, 2015

The National Food Authority (NFA) of the Philippines has decided to retain the paddy procurement price at about P17 per kilogram (around $390 per ton) but provide more incentives to encourage farmers to sell their paddy to the agency, according to local sources.Since the average farm gate prices by private traders are currently ruling at around P18.9 per kilogram (around $429 per ton), most of the farmers are reportedly preferring to sell their output to them.

However, the NFA Administrator told local sources that the NFA cannot increase the price at which it will procure paddy from farmers, but will provide additional incentives such as graduated delivery fee of about P0.50 per kilogram (around $11.34 per ton), drying incentive of about P0.20 per kilogram (around $4.54 per ton) and Cooperative Development Incentive Fund assistance of about P0.30 per kilogram (around $6.81 per ton). He also noted that the agency is also considering other benefits like health insurance to farmers.

The NFA usually procures about 7-8% of total paddy output to maintain buffer stocks and ensure price stability. Philippines paddy production reached about 18.97 million tons in 2014. The NFA imports rice as and when the rice stocks fall below the buffer norms.The NFA imported more than 1.8 million tons of rice (including 1.5 million tons of 2014 imports and 300,000 tons of 2013 residual imports) in 2014 to replenish rice stocks and control price hikes. Of these, 187,000 tons were allowed to be imported by private traders at 35% duty under the government's Page 10 of 12

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www.ricepluss.com Minimum Access Volume (MAV) - Omnibus Rice Importation programme.The government is planning to import 500,000 tons of rice to maintain buffer stocks this year. USDA estimates the Philippines to import around 1.6 million tons of milled rice in 2015, up about 10% from an estimated 1.45 million tons in 2014.

Pakistan Urged to Increase Rice Exports to China Jan 29, 2015

The Senior Vice President of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) urged the Pakistan government to consider more rice exports to China keeping in view of the good relations between the two countries, according to local sources.He told local sources that there is a lot of demand for Pakistani rice in China and Pakistan is capable of exporting about 600,000 - 700,000 tons of rice to China. Pakistan exported around 353,675 tons of rice worth $128 million to China in FY 2013-14 (July - June).

But considering the reputation of Pakistani rice in China, the FPCCI Official, Pakistan government can negotiate with the Chinese authorities to import an additional 200,000 tons of rice from Pakistan yearly. He noted that he is hopeful that China would honour their request due to a large domestic demand for rice.China imported around 2.267 million tons of rice in 2013, and around 2.244 million tons of rice in the first eleven months (January - November) of 2014, according to data from China Customs General Administration.

On the other hand, Pakistan exported around 3.16 million tons of rice FY 2013-14, down about 7% from around 3.4 million tons exported in 2012-13. The South Asian country exported around 1.84 million tons of rice (around 278,973 tons of basmati and around 1.56 million tons of nonbasmati) in the first six months of FY 2014-15.

Thailand Offers Lowest Bid in Iraq Rice Tender Page 11 of 12

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In response to an international tender by Iraq’s Grain Board to buy at least 30,000 tons of rice, Thailand offered a bid of $443.9 per ton (c&f basis), Vietnam offered $446.5 (c&f), U.S. offered $617 per ton (c&f), and Brazil and U.S. jointly offered $662 per ton (c&f), Reuters quoted European traders as saying.Iraq sought tenders from the U.S., Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, Vietnam and Thailand. The tenders closed on January 25, 2015, but are valid until January 29, 2015.

Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today Jan 29, 2015

Asia rice quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton, about $45 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $360 - $370 per ton. India 5% rice is quoted at around $395 $405 per ton, about $40 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $355 - $365 per ton.

25% Broken Rice Thailand 25% rice is quoted at around $365 - $375 per ton, about $35 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $330- $340 per ton. India 25% rice is quoted at around $360 - $370, about $40 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $320 - $330 per ton.

Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $410 - $420 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at around $390 - $400 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at around $400 - $410 per ton.

100% Broken Rice Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $320 - $330 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $295 - $305 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around $290 - $300 per ton.

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