19th january,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

January 19, 2015 Volume 5, Issue I

Daily Exclusive ORYZA

Rice

www.ricepluss.com E-Newsletter

Chief Editor:Hamlik For Advertisement & Specs:

Mujahid Ali mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com

Cell: +92 321 36 92874

Compiled & Edited by

Riceplus Magazine www.ricepluss.com

Cambodia Seeks $300 Million Loan from China to Develop Rice Warehouses Jan 16, 2015

Cambodia's Ministry of Economy and Finance sent a draft memorandum of understanding last month to the Chinese government seeking a loan of about $300 million to build and develop rice warehouses in the country, according to local sources.The government is keen on building about 10 rice warehouses, which can store a total of 1.2 million tons of paddy/rice, in the country to ensure uninterrupted supplies to millers and exporters. The Senior Advisor for the Supreme National Economic Council (SNEC) told local sources that the government is awaiting the Chinese government response over their proposed project.

A major quantity of Cambodian paddy/rice is exported to Vietnam and Thailand through unofficial channels during the harvest season as the country lacks proper storage facilities. Due Page 1 of 18

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www.ricepluss.com to this, millers and exporters have been facing severe shortages of paddy for milling during lean months of April and May. A proper warehousing system is expected to address this issue, said the SNEC Senior Advisor.He noted that the government would build the warehouses but the private sector would be involved for running and maintaining them. He added that farmers and millers would be encouraged to store paddy in warehouses for a fee and also use it as collateral for bank loans. This would help farmers prepare for next season planting as well as millers for procuring paddy from farmers.

The Vice-President of the Cambodia Rice Federation said apart from ensuring availability of paddy for millers and exporters throughout the year, the warehousing system would also help in prioritizing sales of various types of rice depending on their demand.However, an independent economist warned that the government should take adequate care in setting the fee for storing paddy/rice in warehouses. It should be affordable by all farmers and millers, lest they would not use the system. He also noted that country still lacks a proper rice processing sector and the government should focus on this issue as well.

In August last year, the Cambodian Rice Bank was started with a view to address the storage issue.Cambodia has exported about 387,100 tons of rice in 2014, up about 2% from around 378,856 tons exported in 2013, according to local sources. USDA estimates Cambodia to export 1.2 million tons of rice (including official and unofficial exports to Vietnam and Thailand through borders) in 2015, up about 20% from around 1 million tons in 2014.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Fail to Find Follow-through Buying Interest, End the Day Flat and Week Lower Jan 16, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery settled 0.5 cents per cwt (about $0.11 per ton) lower at $11.325 per cwt (about $250 per ton). Rough rice futures failed to follow-through on yesterday’s momentum and despite trading higher for most of the day closed with a slight loss.

Although the market managed to trade above yesterday’s high its inability to close above is seen as a bearish sign. Today’s action left prices 21 cents per cwt (about $5 per ton) lower on the week.

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www.ricepluss.com The other grains finished with mixed results today; Soybeans closed about 0.1% higher at $9.9175 per bushel; wheat finished unchanged at $5.3275 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.8% higher at $3.8700 per bushel.U.S. stocks rose on Friday after a five-session losing streak, with energy leading gains as U.S. crude rose and as investors considered a mixed bag of economic reports. The stock market offered little or no reaction to a series of apparently untrue tweets sent by hackers on the New York Post Twitter account. The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index climbed to 98.2 from a final 93.6 December reading. The consumer-price index declined 0.4% in December, with the cost of living falling by the most in half a dozen years following a 0.3% fall the month before, the Labor Department reported. A third report had factory production slowing in December, up 0.3% versus a 1.3% increase in output in November.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was lately up 52.34 points, or 0.3%, at 17,373.05. The S&P 500 added 12.55 points, or 0.6%, to 2,005.22, with energy leading gains and industrials the sole sector of 10 in decline. The Nasdaq gained 30.45 points, or 0.7%, to 4,601.28. Gold is trading about 1% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 3.5% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.4% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Thursday, there were 409 contracts traded, down from 658 contracts traded on Wednesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Thursday decreased by 11 contracts to 8,597.

Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Little Changed as Traders Weigh the Importance of Yesterday's Recovery Jan 16, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Mar delivery are currently listed 0.5 cents per cwt (about $011 per ton) higher at $11.335 per cwt (about $250 per ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen mixed morning: soybeans are currently seen 0.1% lower, wheat is listed about 0.6% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.5% higher.U.S. stock-index futures fell on Friday, with the losses lessening a bit after the Consumer Price Index fell 0.4 percent in December, in line with estimates.

Crude-oil futures were up 1.2% at $46.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Wall Street stock indexes fell for a fifth straight session on Thursday after the news, and looked set for a lower open on Friday. Other data out on Friday include monthly industrial production at 9:15 Page 3 of 18

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www.ricepluss.com a.m. and the Michigan consumer sentiment index at 9:55 a.m. Gold is currently trading about 0.2% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.2% higher at 8:30am Chicago time.

Cuba Agrees to Import 300,000 Tons of Vietnamese Rice in 2015 Jan 16, 2015

Cuba has agreed to import around 300,000 tons of rice from Vietnam in 2015 in a deal last year, according to local sources.The two countries reportedly signed the deal at the 32nd meeting of the Vietnam-Cuba InterGovernmental Committee Economic, Commercial, Scientific and Technological Cooperation held at Havana in October last year. Given Cuba's current annual import requirements of over 400,000 tons, Vietnam is likely to emerge as largest supplier to Cuba this year.Leaders of the two nations also struck several bilateral trade deals in the meeting, according to local sources.Cuba imports about 50% of its annual rice consumption needs of around 890,000 tons. Cuba currently imports rice from Brazil, India and Thailand. Recent trade financing relaxation by the U.S. for Cuban firms is expected to increase Cuba's rice imports from the U.S.USDA estimates Cuba to produce around 440,000 tons of milled rice and import around 450,000 tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (July - June).

Rice Farms, Wildlife, Waterfowl and Ecological Balance Jan 16, 2015

U.S. rice farms are hailed for not only feeding many with highly nutritious staple but also for protecting the ecological balance. Flooded rice farms in the U.S. are homes for several migrating and wintering dabbling ducks, and are important contributors of entire ecosystem.The U.S. Department of Agriculture, through its Regional Conservation Partnership Program (RCPP), is supporting conservation projects designed by local collaborating partners. RCPP is administered Page 4 of 18

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www.ricepluss.com by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS).A grant of $10 million has been awarded to “Rice Stewardship Partnership – Sustaining the Future of Rice” project designed by the USA Rice Federation, Ducks Unlimited, Inc, (DU) and 40 more collaborating partners. The project will work towards conserving the Mississippi Alluvial Valley, Texas’ and Louisiana’s Gulf Coast, and California’s Central Valley, which are valuable rice producing regions as well as critical landscapes for waterfowl and wildlife.

The RCPP selected the project in a very competitive manner. While some projects were partly funded, the “Rice Stewardship Partnership – Sustaining the Future of Rice” project received the highest grant, according to the DU President. “This is a giant step forward for conservation in rice lands with many more steps to come,” said the President & CEO of USA Rice.The USDA NRCS Chief applauded rice producers who have been integrating extra conservation measures, such as maintaining water quality, into their rice production and contributing to the best waterfowl habitat. He expressed confidence that the partnership between DU, USA Rice and USDA would help producers accomplish their wildlife and waterfowl conservation goals and at the same achieve some tangible benefits from rice production.

Pakistan Must Strengthen Bilateral Relations with Potential Rice Importing Nations Jan 16, 2015

The Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) has urged the government to focus on strengthening bilateral relations with potential rice importing nations such as Bahrain, China, Indonesia and Malaysia, according to local sources.The REAP Chairman noted that Bahrain is a potential market for Pakistani rice and there is an immense scope for expanding bilateral trade, which is currently around $200 billion per annum, given several Pakistani immigrants living in Bahrain. Pakistan exported around 27,805 tons of rice worth $2.6 million to Bahrain in FY 201314 (July - June).

He also noted that Thailand and Cambodia proactively signed government-to-government (g2G) deals with China and this would eventually lead to reduction of the share of Pakistani rice in the country's overall rice imports as the total rice import quota of China is limited. He therefore Page 5 of 18

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www.ricepluss.com urged the government to strike such G2G deals with China in order to stabilize rice trade between the two countries. Pakistan exported around 353,673 tons of rice worth $128 million in FY 2013-14. With adequate initiation from the government, Pakistan can export an additional 200,000 tons of rice to China every year, he added.The REAP Chairman also reminded that Pakistan could strengthen rice trade with Malaysia as well as Pakistan imports huge quantities of palm oil from Malaysia every year.

Pakistan has exported around 3.16 million tons of rice in FY 2013-14, down about 7% from around 3.4 million tons of rice exported in FY 2012-13. The South Asian nation exported around 1.35 million tons of rice (around 239,773 tons of basmati and around 1.11 million tons of nonbasmati) in the first five months of FY 2014-15, up about 16% from around 1.16 million tons exported during the same period in FY 2013-14.

India Government Decides to Revise Buffer Norms of Food Grains in Central Pool Jan 16, 2015

India government has decided to revise the buffer norms for food grains, including rice, in the Central Pool , according to a press release by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution.The current buffer norms have been fixed by the previous government in April 2005. The revised norms are as follows: The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) decided that if the existing buffer norms for food grains is higher than the revised norms, the excess food grains would be offloaded by the Department of Food and Public Distribution through open sale or through exports, according to the press release.A new Inter-Ministerial Group (IMG) consisting of Secretary, Department of Food & Public Distribution; and Secretary, Expenditure and Secretary, Consumer Affairs has been set up to manage food stocks in the country.

Indonesia Increases Government Rice Purchasing Price by 10% Page 6 of 18

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The Indonesian government has decided to increase the government rice purchasing price (HPP) by about 10% to around Rp7,260 per kilogram (around $577 per ton) from the current Rp6,600 per kilogram (around $524 per ton), according to local sources.The government increased the HPP after three years to help farmers realize decent amount for their paddy as well as to achieve their rice procurement target of around 3.2 million tons in 2015.

The country's state Logistics Agency Bulog procured around 2.4 million tons of rice (as of November 2014) as against targeted 3.2 million tons in 2014 prompting it to import around 425,000 tons of rice during the year.The Indonesian Coordinating Minister for the Economy was quoted as saying that the new HPP would protect farmers from low market prices. The increase in HPP was expected to be welcomed by farmers' associations. But, the Chairman of the Indonesian Rice and Rice Mill Association noted that the HPP hike would alone not increase farmers' incomes.

He noted that the government should also focus on lowering production costs. He said the government could have planned to give direct subsidies on fertilizers, seed and good irrigation facilities to farmers to help them lower production costs and make profits.Last year, the USDA Post reported that Bulog is forced to import rice due to low and uncompetitive HPP.Recent floods in the country may play spoilsport on the government's aim to achieve a 4% increase in 2015 paddy production and curtail imports.

Around 1,148 hectares of paddy fields in about 10 districts have been submerged by floods leading to substantial losses in the output. The government is aiming to increase 2015 paddy rice production by about 4% to around 73.4 million tons (around 48.44 million tons, basis milled) from an estimated 70.61 million tons (around 46.65 million tons, basis milled) in 2014.USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36.5 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 57.48 million tons, basis paddy) and import around 1.3 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (January 2015 - December 2015).

Vietnam Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes; Other Asia Quotes Unchanged Jan 16, 2015

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www.ricepluss.com Vietnam rice sellers lowered their quotes for 100% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $320 - $330 per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton, about $30 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $375 - $385 per ton. India 5% rice is quoted at around $395 $405 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $370 - $380 per ton.

25% Broken Rice Thailand 25% rice was last quoted at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $340 - $350 per ton. India 25% rice is quoted at around $360 - $370, about $35 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $325 - $335 per ton.

Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at around $385 - $395 per ton, about $15 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at around $400 - $410 per ton.

100% Broken Rice Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $320 - $330 per ton, on par with Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $320 - $330 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.

India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $300 - $310 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around $290 - $300 per ton.

South Korea Seeks to Buy 40,000 Tons of Non-Glutinous Rice in International Tenders Jan 16, 2015

South Korea's state run Agro Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (KAFTC) is seeking to buy about 40,000 tons of non-glutinous rice in four international tenders for delivery between April and June 2015, according to a statement on its website.KAFTC seeks to buy 5,000 tons of brown short non-glutinous rice for delivery by April 30, 2015; 15,000 tons of brown long non-glutinous rice for delivery by April 30, 2015; 5,000 tons of brown medium non-glutinous rice for delivery Page 8 of 18

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www.ricepluss.com between May 31, 2015; and 15,000 tons of brown long non-glutinous rice for delivery by June 30, 2015 in four different tenders.

Registration of tenders will close at 4.00 p.m on January 27, 2015 and electronic bidding will take place on January 28, 2015 between 10.00 - 11.00 a.m.KAFTC bought 90 tons of nonglutinous milled long grain rice from Thailand at $1,045 per ton (for delivery by January 31) in a tender on December 9, 2014.

Thai Ex-Premier Escapes Second Impeachment Hearing in Rice Pledging Case Jan 16, 2015

Thailand's former Prime Minister (PM) Yingluck Shinawatra has not attended the second impeachment hearing in the rice pledging case today at the Thai National Legislative Assembly (NLA), according to Reuters.The former PM is facing charges of ignoring warnings against misdealing in the controversial rice pledging scheme, which brought losses of over 500 billion baht (around $15.6 billion) to the exchequer.

She attended the first hearing on January 9, 2014 and defended the rice pledging scheme as well as denied all charges against her before the NLA. For the second hearing, she reportedly sent concerned ministers involved in the controversial rice pledging scheme, including the former deputy Prime Minister, to answer questions on her behalf by the Parliament members. But the NLA member have rejected their representation.Therefore, another and last hearing is scheduled for January 22, 2014 and the NLA members will vote on January 23, 2014 deciding whether the former PM was guilty of dereliction of duty. The vote requires a three-fifths majority to pass a judgement.If impeached, the ex-PM would be the first female PM to be impeached and could face a political ban for five years.

USDA Forecasts 2014-15 Global Milled Rice Production at 475.5 Million Tons, Slightly Down from Previous Year Page 9 of 18

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In its January Rice Outlook report, USDA has forecasted 2014-15 global milled rice production at around 475.5 million tons, down about 1.46 million tons from an estimated 476.96 million tons in 2013-14, and slightly up from its last month's estimates of around 475.2 million tons.

Most of this year's decline is due to expected decline in South Asia rice production, according to the U.S. agency. USDA estimates East Asia and Southeast Asia to harvest record crops in 201415. While South America's production is expected to increase, Sub-Saharan African production is expected to decline slightly.

USDA forecasts 2014-15 global rice acreage at around 160.6 million hectares, slightly down from last year. It has forecasted the average global yield at 4.41 tons per hectare (on rough rice basis), almost unchanged from last year.

According to the latest projections, USDA expects higher output from Guyana and Paraguay due to a substantial increase in paddy rice acreage. But the higher output from these countries is likely to be offset by a decline in output from Brazil. It also expects higher production from Cuba and Dominican Republic. But USDA has lowered production estimates for the U.S. based on reports of a slight decline in yield by the government.

USDA estimates 2014-15 global rice consumption and residual use at a record 483.3 million tons, up about 3.2 million tons from last year, and almost unchanged from its last month's projections.

USDA expects consumption to exceed production by about 7.8 million tons in 2014-15.

Major increases in consumption and residual use are expected in Bangladesh, Burma, China, Indonesia, and the U.S. The U.S. agency estimates 2014-15 global rice ending stocks at around 99 million tons, down about 9% from last year's 109.3 million tons and slightly down from last month's projection of about 99.1 million tons due to a likely decline in India, Indonesia and Thailand rice stocks.

However, USDA estimates higher stocks in the Philippines and the U.S. It estimates 2014-15 global stocks-to-use ratio at 20.5%, down from last year's 22.3%.

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Weekly Recap: Global Rice Export Quotes Stabilize; Crude Oil Range Bound

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www.ricepluss.com Jan 16, 2015

The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes, ended the week at about $431 per ton, up about $2 per ton from a week ago, down about $5 per ton from a month ago and down about $34 per ton from a year ago.

After steeply falling from over $100 per barrel in July, crude oil prices seem to have stabilized around $45-$50 per barrel for now.

Thailand Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $410 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month ago, and down about $35 per ton from a year ago.

The President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) claims that Thailand’s 2015 rice exports are expected to decline to around 10 million tons, a decrease of about 6.5% from 10.7 million tons exported in 2014 due to falling global rice and crude oil prices.

Thai rice exporters will sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Hong Kong’s rice importers to export about 100,000 tons of rice to Hong Kong this year.

The Thai Commerce Ministry plans to sell about 10 million tons of stockpiled rice in 2015 and about 7 million tons in 2016.

The Thai government has begun the sale of bonds through the state-owned and commercial banks in efforts to clear the debts associated with the rice pledging scheme. They hope to raise around 100 billion baht (about $3 billion) this year.

India India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $400 per ton, up about $5 per ton from a week and a month and down about $10 per ton from a year ago.

Researchers at the Central Rice Research Institute of India have developed four new droughtresistant paddy varieties that can sustain decreased water conditions.

India government has decided to revise the buffer norms for food grains, including rice, in the Central Pool , according to a press release by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution.

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www.ricepluss.com The Australian government is working closely with research scientists from Australia, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal to improve rice productivity and profitability of small scale farmers in the Eastern Gangetic plains of Nepal, Bangladesh, and India.

The USDA Post estimates Bangladesh will import 500,000 tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (MayApril), down about 33% from last year. Imports were high in 2013-14 due to competitive Indian prices.

Vietnam Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $380 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $25 per ton from a year ago.

Vietnam exported about 6.316 million tons of rice in 2014, down about 6% from 2013, according to data from the Vietnam Food Association. Average rice export price is around $442 per ton (FOB), up about 2% per ton from the same time last year.

The Vietnam government has allocated about VND322 billion (about $1.1 million) from the state budget for the development of the rice sector.

Cuba has agreed to import around 300,000 tons of rice from Vietnam in 2015 in a deal last year, according to local sources.

Pakistan Pakistan 5% broken rice is today shown at about $375 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month ago and down about $25 per ton from a year ago.

The Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) estimates that Pakistan FY 2014-15 (July-June) paddy rice production will reach about 8.437 million tons (about 5.65 million tons, basis milled), a decrease of about 19% from last year. The decline is largely due to floods in Punjab, where about 217,000 tons of paddy is said to be lost.

Average basmati rice export prices declined about 4% in 2014 to around $1,324 per ton, due to increased output and subdued export demand, according to the UN’s FAO. Central & South America Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $540 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $10 per ton from a month ago and down about $125 per ton from a year ago.

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www.ricepluss.com In 2014, Brazil exported about 1.24 million tons of rice, according to the Rice Institute of Rio Grande do Sul. The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by CEPEA reached around 38.08 real per 50 kilograms as of January 12, 2015, up about 0.40% from around 37.93 real per 50 kilograms recorded on January 5, 2015.

In terms of USD per ton, the index reached around $286.65 per ton on January 12, 2015, up about 2.4% from around $280 per ton recorded on January 5, 2015.

In December 2014, Brazil’s rice stocks were around 351,860 tons, about 61% more than in December 2013.

Brazil’s National Grains Supply Company (Conab) forecasted the country’s 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 12.198 million tons, up slightly from 2013-14, but down slightly from last month’s projection.

In the first ten months of 2014, Argentina exported about 458,940 tons of rice, about 14% less than during the same period in 2013, according to the Ministry of Agriculture in Argentina.

U.S. U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $515 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $30 per ton from a month ago and down about $75 per ton from a year ago.

The USDA, in its January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, forecasts that U.S. MY 2014-15 all rice exports will be around 4.67 million tons, up about 10% from an estimated 4.24 million tons last year, due to an increase in U.S. long-grain rice exports. The USDA estimates all rice imports for 2014-15 at around 1 million tons, down about 4% from last year. The USDA estimates 2014-15 U.S. all rice production, basis paddy, to be around 10.02 million tons, up about 16% from last year.

The U.S. cash rough rice market was weaker this week as it fell in sympathy with the futures market.

Chicago rough rice futures for March delivery started the week low and dropped even lower. They opened Monday at $11.535 per cwt (about $254 per ton) and reached a low of $11.065 per cwt (about $244 per ton) on Thursday before closing at $11.255 per cwt (about $248 per ton) Friday afternoon.

Other Markets Page 14 of 18

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www.ricepluss.com Iraq’s Trade Ministry has invited international tenders to purchase 30,000 tons of rice from the U.S., Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, Vietnam, and Thailand, with bids due January 25.

Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $445 per ton, down about $10 per ton from a week ago, down about $20 per ton from a month ago and down about $10 per ton from year ago.

A Libyan state grain buying agency has tendered to buy as much as 25,000 tons of 5% broken rice, according to Reuters.

Indonesia’s state buying agency Bulog hopes to reach rice self-sufficiency in 2015 and plans not to import rice in 2015 due to sufficient stocks.

The government of Myanmar has begun formalities to legally export rice to China.

The Philippines Department of Agriculture plans to increase investment in rice research and development in efforts to boost production.

Rice stocks in the Philippines are around 3.03 million tons, up about 3% from November 2014, and up about 22% from the same period last year.

The Maldives is looking to purchase 9,000 tons of parboiled rice in an international tender, with offers due February 8.

European Commission officers will be in Rome on January 28 to meet with the Italian rice growing sector and the Italian government in order to clarify some aspects of the Italian request for a safeguard clause designed to protect the domestic industry.

Vietnam's 2014 Rice Exports Lowest in Four Years Jan 16, 2015

The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) stated in a report that Vietnam's rice exports in 2014 lagged behind expectation and were lowest in the last four years, according to local sources.Vietnam exported around 6.316 million tons of rice in 2014 against an expected 7 Page 15 of 18

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www.ricepluss.com million tons, stated the VFA. Vietnam's 2014 rice exports were down about 6% from about 6.71 million tons of rice exported in 2013 and down about an average of about 7 million tons during 2010-13, according to data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA).

Vietnam exported about 6.68 million tons of rice in 2013, about 7.72 million tons in 2012, about 7.1 million tons in 2011 and about 6.75 million tons in 2010, as per VFA data.Vietnam's rice exports have increased steadily over the last five years making it one of the top rice exporters of the world. The Southeast Asian nation became world's second largest rice exporter in 2012 and 2013 after India as Thailand slipped from the top position as the rice pledging scheme introduced by the Yingluck-led government in October 2011 made Thai rice uncompetitive in the world market.

In 2014, Vietnam's rice exports had to take a toll due to Thailand, which accumulated around 17.8 million tons of rice from the rice pledging scheme and is keen on selling them within the next couple of years. Increased supplies from Thailand as well as from harvests of other exporting nations along with declining demand from importing countries have pushed down the rice export prices since September 2014.

Now, the government is planning to expand its efforts on increasing rice exports to Africa and East Asian nations in order to compete with Thailand, India, Pakistan and Cambodia. The VFA also cut the floor prices of all quality rice, including 5%, 10%, 15% and 25% broken varieties to about $385 per ton, $375 per ton, $365 per ton and $360 per ton respectively to sustain competition.Experts have also been warning Vietnam government to focus on growing high quality rice varieties as well on clinching deals with high end consumers to increase competitiveness of Vietnamese rice in the global market.

USDA Forecasts 2015 Global Rice Trade at 42.6 Million Tons, Unchanged from 2014 Jan 16, 2015

In its January Rice Outlook report, USDA has forecasted 2015 global rice trade at around 42.6 million tons, almost unchanged from last year, and slightly up from the previous month's forecast of around 41.9 million tons due to likely large purchases by China and Sub-Saharan Africa and large exportable supplies in most of the Asian and South American exporting countries.

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On the exports side, USDA estimates Thailand to export a record 11.3 million tons in 2015 based on continued government's efforts to reduce its stocks. USDA expects Myanmar's exports to increase to around 1.5 million tons based on expected increase in 2014 shipments as well as likely increase in exports to China.

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USDA expects Paraguay to export 400,000 tons of rice in 2015, up about 53% from last year due to expected increase in production and a likely lower consumption. It expects Guyana's rice exports at around 500,000 tons, almost unchanged from last year and about 50,000 tons above last month's forecast due to an expected increase in production and strong exports in 2104.

On the imports side, USDA is estimating China to import around 4.3 million tons of rice in 2015, up about 10% from an estimated 3.9 million tons last year and slightly up from last month's forecast of around 4 million tons based on recent agreements with Myanmar and Thailand.

USDA expects Syria's rice imports to decline about 9% y/y to around 200,000 tons, but up about 33% from last month's forecast of around 150,000 tons based on larger shipments from India and Vietnam that pass through Turkey as part of food donations for refugees.

For 2014, USDA has increased its export estimates for India and Myanmar in Asia; and for Guyana in South America. However, it lowered its estimates for the U.S. exports due to tighter supplies and a record price difference over Asian competitors. USDA has increased import estimations for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Saudi Arabia and Syria.

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