15th may,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

May 15, 2015

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

Volume 5, Issue I Daily Exclusive

ORYZA Rice Newsletter

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

Government of Vietnam Allots Additional $22 Billion in State Budget for Rice Land Development May 14, 2015

The government of Vietnam has allotted an additional 481 billion VND (around $22 billion) in the state budget towards rice land development and protection, according to local sources.The funds have been allotted in order to protect rice lands from urbanization, industrialization and infrastructure construction. The government had also issued a decree on managing and using rice fields efficiently.

The newly allotted funds will be used to develop and protect rice fields in nine main rice producing localities of the country - Bac Ninh province in the North, Da Nang city, Thanh Hoa

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com and Quang Ngai provinces in the Central region, and Tay Ninh, Vinh Long, Dong Thap, Hau Giang and Kien Giang in the South.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), Vietnam's milled rice production increased about 3% y/y in 2014 to about 28 million tons.Vietnam exported about 1.555 million tons of rice in first four months of calendar year 2015, down about 11% from about 1.758 million tons of rice exported during same time last year, according to data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA).

Bangladesh Rice Import Duty May Prop Up Cross-Border Trade with India, Say Analysts May 14, 2015

Recently, Bangladesh has been importing too much of rice from India despite a decent production in the country due to relatively low prices in India. Private traders in the country 3

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com imported about 1.36 million tons of rice as of May 12, 2015 in the FY 2014-15 (July - June), about 3.6 times higher than 374,560 tons imported during the whole of FY 2013-14, according to the Food Ministry. Absence of import duties on rice has been slated as one of the main reasons for unusual increase in imports.

The situation had turned unfavorable to Bangladesh farmers and millers with huge volumes of stocks left unsold. With the 2015 Boro harvesting around the corner, the government was advised to impose duties on rice imports with immediate effect to protect the local rice sector.

The government imposed a 10% duty on rice imports with effect from this May 12, 2015.However, the move has sent jitters among the Indian rice farmers especially in the states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, which mainly export non-aromatic parboiled rice to Bangladesh, local sources quoted some analysts as saying. They noted that the move had led to a 20% drop in rice prices in India.

One of the grain market analysts predicted that the move may encourage cross-border trade between the two nations through India's north-eastern states. He noted that in order to compensate for the loss from the Bangladesh market, Indian rice exporters should focus on increasing export volume to African nations such as Nigeria, South Africa, Senegal and Ivory Coast, where there is huge demand for 100% broken rice and parboiled rice.

Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today May 14, 2015

Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $20 per ton discount to Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $390 - $400 per ton.

25% Broken Rice Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $330- $340 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $345 - $355, on par with Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton.

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, about a $30 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $390 - $400 per ton.

100% Broken Rice Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $270 - $280 per ton, about a $20 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $290 - $300 per ton.

Global Rice Quotes May 14th, 2015 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 380-390

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Vietnam 5% broken

350-360

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India 5% broken

370-380

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Pakistan 5% broken

390-400

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Myanmar 5% broken

415-425

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Cambodia 5% broken

430-440

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U.S. 4% broken 470-480

↓

Uruguay 5% broken

565-575

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Argentina 5% broken

555-565

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Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken

350-360

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Vietnam 25% broken

330-340

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Pakistan 25% broken

345-355

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com Cambodia 25% broken 410-420

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India 25% broken

345-355

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U.S. 15% broken

460-470

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Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd

370-380

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd

↔

390-400

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 360-370

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U.S. parboiled 4% broken

555-565

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Brazil parboiled 5% broken

570-580

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Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ

↔

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Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% 875-885

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Vietnam Jasmine

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490-500

India basmati 2% broken

NQ

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Pakistan basmati 2% broken

NQ

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Cambodia Phka Mails

815-825

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315-325

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Vietnam 100% broken 305-315

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Brokens Thailand A1 Super

Pakistan 100% broken stxd Cambodia A1 Super

290-300

350-360

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India 100% broken stxd 270-280

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Egypt medium grain brokens

NQ

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U.S. pet food

↓

365-375

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com Brazil half grain NQ

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All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

China May Allow Market Access to Indian Non-Basmati Rice Soon, Say Exporters May 14, 2015

Indian Rice Exporters have expressed confidence that China may grant market access to Indian non-basmati rice shipments shortly during the Indian Prime Minister's visit to Beijing this week, according to local sources.The Chinese authorities have been blocking non-basmati shipments from India as adequate quality protocols and phyto-sanitary norms have not be defined between the two countries.

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com Indian exporters say China currently imports rice from Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. They noted that India has a potential to export up to one million tons of non-basmati rice to China.

One of the top exporters added that India can in fact offer better quality, price and a wider variety to the Chinese customers.A Commerce Ministry official told local sources that the Ministry had suggested to the Chinese authorities to adopt the same protocol that exists for basmati rice shipments for the non-basmati shipments also. The Ministry officials have reportedly sent the requisite documents for establishing the quality protocol to China's General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ). “The AQSIQ required certain documents to extend the protocol existing for basmati rice to non-basmati, and we have already sent them,� the official was quoted as saying.

According to local sources, though China has agreed to import Indian basmati rice in 2012, so far not much progress is seen in the volume of direct shipments to China due to lingering concerns about Indian basmati rice being infested with 'khapra beetle'. However, some basmati shipments are understood to be routed through Hong Kong. The Chinese authorities are still in the process of registering the Indian mills.

Increasing rice exports to China has been on the agenda of the government as part of efforts to contain increasing trade deficit with the neighboring country. In January this year, an official from the Commerce Ministry noted that India's trade deficit with China currently stands at around $32 billion and is expected to cross $40 billion by the end of this fiscal year.

Oryza Global Weather Outlook May 14, 2015

Rain is expected across the Southern Yangtze Valley and South China this week.

Rain showers are expected across Southern India this week.

Rain is expected to continue in Bangladesh this week also.

In Indonesia, rain is expected across Sumatra, Malay Peninsula, Kalimantan, East Malaysia, and Sulawesi this week, which will slow main crop rice harvesting there.

A few showers are expected in Northern Pakistan this week.

Rain showers are expected across North-eastern and Southern Thailand this week.

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com A few showers are expected in Northern and far Southern Vietnam this week.

In the Philippines, a few showers are expected to favor Western Luzon and South-eastern areas this week.

Light rain is expected in Western portions of the Center-South Brazil with a few showers also expected in North-western and South-eastern portions of the Northeast Brazil this week.

A few light showers are expected in Northern Argentina this week.

In the U.S., abundant rain is expected cross the Delta and Coastal Bend this week.

USDA Post Estimates China Rice Imports to Remain Stable at 4.3 Million Tons in MY 2015-16

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com May 14, 2015

USDA Post has estimated MY 2015-16 (July - June) rice imports at around 4.3 million tons, unchanged from MY 2013-14, due to a slight increase in production. The Post reports that Chinese preference for imported rice is increasing due to reports in response to reports of heavy metals and high pesticideresidues in some locally produced rice. The government is understood to closely monitor and regulate rice imports as part of its food security strategy.The Post estimates China's MY 2015-16 milled rice production at around 146.3 million tons, up about 1% from an estimated 144.5 million tons due to government's continued support to the rice sector as part of its food security strategy. The Post estimates China's MY 2015-16 paddy rice acreage to remain unchanged from last year's 30.3 million hectares.

The Post estimates China's MY 2015-16 rice exports to decline to around 350,000 tons, down about 12.5% from an estimated 400,000 tons in the previous year.USDA Post estimates rice ending stocks to decline to around 46.35 million tons in MY 2015- 16 down about 1.6% from an estimated 47.1 million tons last year due to an estimated increase in consumption by about 2% to around 151 million tons.

The Post reports that the government continued to purchase japonica and indica rice at a specified floor price in major rice producing provinces in MY 2014-15 to encourage production.

The government will auction the rice thus purchased later in the marketing year.

Thailand Rice Exports Increase for Second Consecutive Month in March 2015 May 14, 2015

Thai rice exports have increased for the second consecutive month in March 2015 after declining by more than half in January 2015, according to data from Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA). Thailand has exported around 785,891 tons of rice in March 2015, up about 7% from around 732,151 tons exported in February 2015, and down about 2% from around 799,534 tons exported in March 2014, according to TREA. In value terms, Thailand’s rice exports earned about $384.9 million from total rice exports in March 2015, up about 4% from around $369.58 million earned in February 2015, and down about 4% from around $402.54 million earned in March 2014.

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

In March 2015, white rice exports accounted for around 392,760 tons (about 50% of total March 2015 exports), Hom Mali rice exports accounted for about 120,211 tons (about 15% of total March exports), brokens accounted for 98,754 tons (about 12.5% of total March 2015 exports), glutinous variety accounted for 12,659 tons (about 1.6% of total March 2015 exports), parboiled rice accounted for about 157,057 tons (about 20% of total March 2015 exports) and husked/brown rice accounted for about 4,450 tons (about 0.5% of total March 2015 exports).

Average export prices of all varieties of rice except glutinous rice have declined during the month. Average export prices of white rice witnessed the highest decline of about 7% month-onmonth in March 2015, while average export prices of glutinous rice increased by about 1% month-on-month during the month.Thailand exported around 2.128 million tons of rice in the first three months of 2015, slightly down from around 2.205 million tons exported during the same period last year. Thai government is keen on exporting over 10 million tons of rice this year.

Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Retrace Overnight as Market 11

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

Lacks Follow-through Buying Interest after Yesterday’s Afternoon Recovery May 14, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Jul delivery are currently seen paused 6.5 cent per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $9.380 per cwt (about $207 per ton) ahead of floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading mixed overnight; soybeans are currently seen about 0.1% lower, wheat is listed about 1.9% higher and corn is currently noted 1.1% higher.U.S. stock index futures indicated a higher open on Thursday, with investors eyeing weekly jobless claims data for direction, after retail figures for April fell flat. The Dow futures continued to hold gains of more than 100 points amid some steadying in bond yields and further weakening in the dollar with the euro at $1.14 for the first time since February. Weekly jobless claims came in at 264,000, a touch below last week's reading and below expectations for a slight increase. The initial filings for unemployment benefits per week remain near 15-year lows.

The producer price index for April fell 0.4%, with the core figure down 0.2%. The report was expected to show a slight uptick. The monthly measure of input costs is a secondary factor in determining the rate of change in prices, after the consumer price index. The Federal Reserve will eye both the employment situation and inflation for signs the economy is ready for an interest rate hike. Consensus is for a rate hike in September or later in the year, but central bank policymakers have not ruled out a June liftoff. In Europe, European equities traded lower Thursday amid growing concerns for the health of the U.S. economy. Gold is currently trading about 0.1% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 0.1% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.4% lower at 8:15am Chicago time.

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

Conab Estimates Brazil 2014-15 Paddy Rice Production at 12.399 Million Tons, Up 2% from Last Year May 14, 2015

Brazil’s National Grains Supply Company (Conab) has forecasted the country's 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 12.399 million tons (around 8.43 million tons, basis milled), up about 2% from around 12.121 million tons (around 8.24 million tons, basis milled) in 2013-14, and slightly up from its March forecast of around 12.397 million tons.Conab has estimated Brazil's 2014-15 paddy rice acreage at around 2.331 million hectares, down about 1.7% from around 2.373 million hectares in 2013-14. Paddy rice acreage in the key rice growing Centro-Sul (Center-South) region is projected at 1.553 million hectares in 2014-15, slightly down from around 1.565 million hectares in 2013-14. Rice acreage in the North/Northeast regions is estimated at around 777,600 hectares, down 4% from around 808,400 hectares in 2013-14.

Average rice yield in Brazil in 2014-15 is projected at around 5.320 tons per hectare, up about 4% from around 5.108 tons per hectare recorded in the previous year.USDA estimates Brazil MY 2014-15 (April – March) paddy rice production at around 12.206 million tons (around 8.3 million tons, basis milled), unchanged from MY 2013-14. It estimates Brazil’s 2014-15 paddy 13

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com rice acreage also to remain at last year's level of around 2.4 million hectares. USDA estimates Brazil to export around one million tons of rice and import around 790,000 tons of rice in 2015.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Rally as Dollar Weakness and Outside Support Boost Price off of Near-term Low May 14, 2015

rice futures for Jul delivery settled 14.5 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) higher at $9.635 per cwt (about $212 per ton). The other grains finished the day with mixed results; Soybeans closed slightly higher at $9.5700 per bushel; wheat finished about 6.8% higher at $5.1425 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.4% higher at $3.6100 per bushel.U.S. stocks traded more than 1% higher on Thursday, bouncing from the prior day's muted trade, as investors watched the dollar and calmer bond markets, amid mixed economic data.

The U.S. dollar recovered slightly but held near recent lows, while the euro briefly topped $1.14 for the first time since February. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.24%.Traders also noted some short covering ahead of options expiration on Friday. Weekly jobless claims came in at 264,000, a touch below last week's reading and below expectations for a slight increase. The initial filings for unemployment benefits per week remain near 15-year lows. The producer price index for April fell 0.4%, with the core figure down 0.2%, missing expectations for a slight gain.

The monthly measure of input costs is a secondary factor in determining the rate of change in prices, after the consumer price index.

The Federal Reserve will eye both the employment situation and inflation for signs the economy is ready for an interest rate hike. Consensus is for a rate hike in September or later in the year, but central bank policymakers have not ruled out a June liftoff. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 182 points, or 1.01%, at 18,242. The S&P 500 traded up 20 points, or 0.98%, at 2,118, with information technology leading all ten sectors higher. The Nasdaq traded up 62 points, or 1.24%, at 5,043. Gold is trading about 0.4% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.5% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.1% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Wednesday, there were 505 contracts traded, down from 835 contracts traded on Tuesday.

Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday increased by 66 contracts to 11,263.

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