14th may,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

14th May, 2015

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

Volume 5, Issue I Daily Exclusive

ORYZA Rice Newsletter

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

Conab Estimates Brazil 2014-15 Paddy Rice Production at 12.399 Million Tons, Up 2% from Last Year May 14, 2015

Brazil’s National Grains Supply Company (Conab) has forecasted the country's 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 12.399 million tons (around 8.43 million tons, basis milled), up about 2% from around 12.121 million tons (around 8.24 million tons, basis milled) in 2013-14, and slightly up from its March forecast of around 12.397 million tons.Conab has estimated Brazil's 2014-15 paddy rice acreage at around 2.331 million hectares, down about 1.7% from around 2.373 million hectares in 2013-14. Paddy rice acreage in the key rice growing Centro-Sul (Center-South) region is projected at 1.553 million hectares in 2014-15, slightly down from around 1.565 million hectares in 2013-14. Rice acreage in the North/Northeast regions is estimated at around 777,600 hectares, down 4% from around 808,400 hectares in 2013-14.Average rice yield in Brazil in 2014-15 is projected at around 5.320 tons per hectare, up about 4% from around 5.108 tons per hectare recorded in the previous year.

USDA estimates Brazil MY 2014-15 (April – March) paddy rice production at around 12.206 million tons (around 8.3 million tons, basis milled), unchanged from MY 2013-14. It estimates Brazil’s 2014-15 paddy rice acreage also to remain at last year's level of around 2.4 million

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com hectares. USDA estimates Brazil to export around one million tons of rice and import around 790,000 tons of rice in 2015.

Global Rice Quotes May 14th, 2015 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 380-390 Vietnam 5% broken 350-360 ↔ India 5% broken 370-380 ↔ Pakistan 5% broken 390-400 ↔ Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔ Cambodia 5% broken 430-440 ↔ U.S. 4% broken 470-480 ↓ Uruguay 5% broken 565-575 ↔ Argentina 5% broken 555-565 ↔ Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken 350-360 ↔ Vietnam 25% broken 330-340 ↔ Pakistan 25% broken 345-355 ↔ Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 India 25% broken 345-355 ↔ U.S. 15% broken 460-470 ↓

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Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 370-380 Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 390-400 India parboiled 5% broken stxd 360-370 U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔ Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔ Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔ Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% 875-885 Vietnam Jasmine 490-500 ↔ India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Cambodia Phka Mails 815-825 Brokens Thailand A1 Super 315-325 ↔ Vietnam 100% broken 305-315

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com Pakistan 100% broken stxd 290-300 ↔ Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔ India 100% broken stxd 270-280 ↔ Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔ U.S. pet food 365-375 ↓ Brazil half grain NQ ↔ All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

China May Allow Market Access to Indian Non-Basmati Rice Soon, Say Exporters

May 14, 2015

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com Indian Rice Exporters have expressed confidence that China may grant market access to Indian non-basmati rice shipments shortly during the Indian Prime Minister's visit to Beijing this week, according to local sources.The Chinese authorities have been blocking non-basmati shipments from India as adequate quality protocols and phyto-sanitary norms have not be defined between the two countries.

Indian exporters say China currently imports rice from Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. They noted that India has a potential to export up to one million tons of non-basmati rice to China.

One of the top exporters added that India can in fact offer better quality, price and a wider variety to the Chinese customers.A Commerce Ministry official told local sources that the Ministry had suggested to the Chinese authorities to adopt the same protocol that exists for basmati rice shipments for the non-basmati shipments also. The Ministry officials have reportedly sent the requisite documents for establishing the quality protocol to China's General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ). “The AQSIQ required certain documents to extend the protocol existing for basmati rice to non-basmati, and we have already sent them,� the official was quoted as saying.

According to local sources, though China has agreed to import Indian basmati rice in 2012, so far not much progress is seen in the volume of direct shipments to China due to lingering concerns about Indian basmati rice being infested with 'khapra beetle'. However, some basmati shipments are understood to be routed through Hong Kong. The Chinese authorities are still in the process of registering the Indian mills.Increasing rice exports to China has been on the agenda of the government as part of efforts to contain increasing trade deficit with the neighboring country. In January this year, an official from the Commerce Ministry noted that India's trade deficit with China currently stands at around $32 billion and is expected to cross $40 billion by the end of this fiscal year.

USDA Post Estimates China Rice Imports to Remain Stable at 4.3 Million Tons in MY 2015-16 May 14, 2015

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

USDA Post has estimated MY 2015-16 (July - June) rice imports at around 4.3 million tons, unchanged from MY 2013-14, due to a slight increase in production. The Post reports that Chinese preference for imported rice is increasing due to reports in response to reports of heavy metals and high pesticideresidues in some locally produced rice. The government is understood to closely monitor and regulate rice imports as part of its food security strategy.The Post estimates China's MY 2015-16 milled rice production at around 146.3 million tons, up about 1% from an estimated 144.5 million tons due to government's continued support to the rice sector as part of its food security strategy. The Post estimates China's MY 2015-16 paddy rice acreage to remain unchanged from last year's 30.3 million hectares.

The Post estimates China's MY 2015-16 rice exports to decline to around 350,000 tons, down about 12.5% from an estimated 400,000 tons in the previous year.USDA Post estimates rice ending stocks to decline to around 46.35 million tons in MY 2015- 16 down about 1.6% from an estimated 47.1 million tons last year due to an estimated increase in consumption by about 2% to around 151 million tons.The Post reports that the government continued to purchase japonica and indica rice at a specified floor price in major rice producing provinces in MY 2014-15 to

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com encourage production. The government will auction the rice thus purchased later in the marketing year.

FAO Estimates Japan 2015-16 Rice Acreage to Decline Slightly Due to Prevailing Low Prices

May 13, 2015

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates a slight decline in planting area due to prevailing low prices in the market. Planting of the 2015 rice crop started in April and will continue until the end of May. The FAO estimates Japan's 2015 aggregate paddy production at around 10.5 million tons (around 7.67 million tons, basis milled), down about 1% from around 10.6 million tons (around 7.74 million tons, basis milled) in 2014 due to a slight decline in planting area.

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com The FAO estimates Japan's 2015-16 (April-March) rice imports at around 700,000 tons. It estimates total cereal imports during the year at around 25.4 million tons, slightly down from around 25.52 million tons last year.USDA estimates Japan to produce about 10.772 million tons of paddy (around 7.84 million tons, basis milled) in MY 2014-15 (November - October) and import around 700,000 tons of rice in 2015.

U.S. 2015-16 All Rice Supplies and Ending Stocks Expected to Increase, Says USDA Report

May 13, 2015

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA has forecasts U.S. 2015-16 all rice supplies to increase 3% y/y to around 12.99 million tons and accordingly forecasts U.S. 2015-16 all rice ending stocks to increase about 11% y/y to around 2.15 million tons.USDA estimates U.S. 2015-16 all rice planted area and harvested area to decline slightly to around 1.17 million hectares and 1.16 million hectares respectively. It estimates U.S. 2015-16 all rice production to decline slightly to around 9.93 million tons. While the long-grain production is estimated to decline slightly to around 7.35 million tons, combined medium and short-grain production is estimated to decline about 2.6% to around 2.59 million tons.

U.S. 2015-16 all rice exports are expected to increase about 3% y/y to around 4.9 million tons.

While long-grain rice exports are estimated to increase about 4% y/y to around 3.45 million tons, combined medium and short-grain rice exports are expected to remain at last year's level of 1.45 million tons. USDA estimates U.S. 2015-16 all rice imports to increase about 2% y/y to around 1.11 million tons.

U.S. 2015-16 all rice farm prices are expected to decline slightly to around 271.17 - 293.21 per ton from around $291.00 - $299.83 per ton. USDA estimates long-grain rice farm prices to decline to around $220.46 - $242.51 per ton and estimates combined medium and short-grain farm prices to increase to around $392.42 - $414.46 per ton.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Muted Market as Sellers Stay on Sidelines May 13, 2015

The U.S. cash market was unchanged today and very quiet as sellers remain on the sidelines, anticipating a price rebound despite burdensome stocks and limited demand.Analysts contend that the current price level is below the cost production and that most would rather hold on to their crop as long as they can before selling for a loss; however, other analysts believe that it may be wise to cut your losses now as farmers plant a crop just shy of the size of last year's.

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

Thailand Rice Exports Increase for Second Consecutive Month in March 2015 May 14, 2015

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com Thai rice exports have increased for the second consecutive month in March 2015 after declining by more than half in January 2015, according to data from Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA). Thailand has exported around 785,891 tons of rice in March 2015, up about 7% from around 732,151 tons exported in February 2015, and down about 2% from around 799,534 tons exported in March 2014, according to TREA. In value terms, Thailand’s rice exports earned about $384.9 million from total rice exports in March 2015, up about 4% from around $369.58 million earned in February 2015, and down about 4% from around $402.54 million earned in March 2014.

In March 2015, white rice exports accounted for around 392,760 tons (about 50% of total March 2015 exports), Hom Mali rice exports accounted for about 120,211 tons (about 15% of total March exports), brokens accounted for 98,754 tons (about 12.5% of total March 2015 exports), glutinous variety accounted for 12,659 tons (about 1.6% of total March 2015 exports), parboiled rice accounted for about 157,057 tons (about 20% of total March 2015 exports) and husked/brown rice accounted for about 4,450 tons (about 0.5% of total March 2015 exports). Average export prices of all varieties of rice except glutinous rice have declined during the month. Average export prices of white rice witnessed the highest decline of about 7% monthon-month in March 2015, while average export prices of glutinous rice increased by about 1% month-on-month during the month.Thailand exported around 2.128 million tons of rice in the first three months of 2015, slightly down from around 2.205 million tons exported during the same period last year. Thai government is keen on exporting over 10 million tons of rice this year.

Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today May 14, 2015

Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $20 per ton discount to Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $390 - $400 per ton.

25% Broken Rice

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $330- $340 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $345 - $355, on par with Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton.

Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, about a $30 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $390 - $400 per ton.

100% Broken Rice Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $270 - $280 per ton, about a $20 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $290 - $300 per ton.

Government of India Forecasts 2014-15 Rice Production at 102.54 Million Tons, Down 4% from Last Year May 13, 2015

The government of India, in its third advance estimates for major crops, has estimated India's rice production for 2014-15 marketing year (October 2014 - September 2015) at around 102.54

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com million tons, down about 4% from an estimated 106.65 million tons in 2013-14, according to a statement from the agriculture Ministry.The decline can be attributed to late arrival of monsoons in June 2014 delaying the kharif main rice crop planting process in many key rice growing areas.

Unseasonal rains and hailstorms during February and March this year are also understood to have significantly impacted production of rabi rice crops.According to government sources, India's total food grain production, which includes Kharif (June - December) and Rabi (November - March) crops, in 2014-15 is likely to reach around 251.12 million tons, down about 5% from last year's 265.57 million tons.

In its first advanced estimates, the Indian government has estimated 2014-15 (October 2014 September 2015) kharif rice production at around 88.02 million tons, down about 4% from around 91.69 million tons produced during the same time in 2013-14.USDA estimates India's milled rice production at 102.5 million tons in MY 2014-15 (October - September), down about 4% from an estimated 106.54 million tons produced in MY 2013-14. It expects India to export around 10.2 million tons of rice during 2015, slightly up from an estimated 10.15 million tons in 2014.

High Production Costs and Government's Lacklustre Measures Hampering Pakistan Rice Exports, Say Exporters May 13, 2015

Pakistan's rice exporters have expressed concern that high rice production costs, lack of research and government's lacklustre attitude towards the rice sector have been hampering rice exports of Pakistan, according to local sources.They say the high production costs do not allow farmers and exporters to price their rice competitively in the international market. They noted that Pakistan's basmati rice is priced nearly $100 to $150 per ton above India's basmati rice. They

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com added that due to high prices, Pakistan's growers and exporters are holding about five million tons of rice, including basmati, in stocks. They noted that if the current stocks cannot be sold this year, farmers may be discouraged to plant rice next year, which is detrimental to the country's rice sector.

Therefore, the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) had met with the Ministry of National Food Security and Research and sought measures to reduce the production costs as well as invest more in research in order to introduce more newer varieties of rice. They also requested the government to subsidize rice exports and help them dispose of the existing stock.Ministry sources told local sources that the Ministry has directed concerned representatives in various provinces to take relevant measures to bring down production costs as well as enhance yields.USDA estimates Pakistan's MY 2014-15 (November - October) milled rice production to increase about 3% to around 6.9 million tons (around 10.35 million tons, basis paddy) from around 6.7 million tons (around 10.05 million tons, basis paddy) in MY 2013-14. It estimates Pakistan to export around 3.8 million tons of rice in 2015.

FAO Estimates Cambodia Rice Exports to Increase in 2015

May 13, 2015

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates Cambodia's rice exports (including official and unofficial exports to Thailand and Vietnam) to increase in 2015. In its previous report, the FAO forecasted Cambodia's 2014-15 rice exports to increase about 15% y/y to around 1.15 million tons.The FAO forecasts exports of all cereals, including rice, at around 1.5 million tons, up 9% from last year.

The UN agency estimates Cambodia's total paddy rice production in 2015 at around 9.3 million tons (around 5.76 million tons, basis milled). Planting of the 2015 main (wet) season paddy crop (June - February), which accounts for 80% of Cambodia's total paddy rice production, is expected to start in June and continue till October. The FAO estimates output from the 2015 main season rice crop at around 7.2 million tons, up about 1% from last year.Average wholesale prices remained stable or declined in April 2015 in major cities due to increasing supplies from the 2014-15 good harvests.

USDA estimates Cambodia MY 2014-15 (January 2015 - December 2015) paddy rice production at around 7.344 million tons (around 4.7 million tons, milled basis), slightly down from around 7.383 million tons (around 4.725 million tons, milled basis) in MY 2013-14. It estimates Cambodia to export around 1.1 million tons of rice in 2015, up about 10% from an estimated 1 million tons in 2014.

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