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10th April , 2014

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TOP Contents - Tailored for YOU Latest News Headlines…

 Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Suffer Afternoon Sell-off as USDA Report Fails to Provide Support  Sri Lanka Government Removes Import Duty on Rice Due to Ongoing Drought  Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Mexico Peso, Euro Advance 0.4%  Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Steady After USDA Report Shows Stocks Unchanged  India Wastes Upto 30% of Annual Foodgrain Production Due to Poor Storage Facilities  Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Move Higher as Traders Anticipate April USDA Update  Vietnam Rice Exports to Face Stiff Competition from Thailand in Second Quarter of 2014, Says VFA Chairman  USDA Post Expects Dominican Republic MY 2014-15 Rice Production to Increase to 542,000 Tons  Bangladesh Rice Import Value Surges Twelve Fold in First Eight Months of FY 2013-14  Indonesia Government to Formulate New Rules for Premium Rice Imports  Thailand Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today  USDA Post Forecasts South Korea MY 2014-15 Rice Imports at 410,000 Tons  Oryza Global Rice Quotes

News Detail… Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Suffer Afternoon Sell-off as USDA Report Fails to Provide Support Apr 09, 2014

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 7 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at $15.505 per cwt (about $342 per ton). After trading higher for the majority of the trading session, rough rice futures came under renewed selling pressure in afternoon trading and quickly slipped to a loss for the day. Prices once again tested and confirmed overhead resistance provided by the 10-day and 100-day moving averages which were noted at $15.600 per cwt (about $344 per ton) today. The last minute push by the bears was enough to see prices break back into technically bearish territory as the market closed below the 20-day moving average at $15.515 per cwt (about $342 per ton).

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However, they could not overcome the firm psychological support noted at $15.500 per cwt (about $342 per ton). Today’s USDA S&D update was seen as a “non-event” as rising domestic usage was offset by reduced exports, leaving the projected ending stocks unchanged. The other grains finished the day with mixed results; soybeans closed about 0.9% higher at $14.9525 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.8% lower at $6.6900 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.9% higher at $5.0225 per bushel.U.S. stocks jumped on Wednesday, extending gains into a second session, after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last session offset concern about when the central bank would raise interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee's minutes had policy makers unanimous in agreeing to drop an unemployment target for hiking rates. Treasury yields jumped last month after Fed members forecast the benchmark interest rate would climb more rapidly than previously projected. And Fed Chair Janet Yellen said rates could begin to climb about six months after the central bank concludes its monthly bond purchases. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 162.64 points, or 1%, to 16,418.78. The S&P 500 climbed 17.24 points, or 0.9%, to 1,869.20, with health care, materials and technology pacing gains that included all but telecommunications and utilities among its 10 major industry groups. The Nasdaq added 62.42 points, or 1.5 percent, to 4,175.41. Gold is trading about 0.1% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 0.9% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.3% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago time. Tuesday, there were 806 contracts traded, down from 918 contracts traded on Monday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday increased by 195 contracts to 8,765. Tags: U.S. rice prices, U.S. rice market, chicago rough rice futures

Sri Lanka Government Removes Import Duty on Rice Due to Ongoing Drought Apr 09, 2014

The Sri Lankan government has removed all taxes on rice imports to help improve supplies amid drought conditions in several parts of the country this year.Earlier this month, the government urged farmers to reduce rice cultivation by 50% and grow crops that consume less water. The government says that it cannot pay compensation to farmers if they grow rice this year and adds that it will specify the area to be planted with rice this year based on availability of irrigation water on April 21-22, 2014, according to local sources.According to the USDA, Sri Lanka’s rice production stands at around 2.75 million tons against a consumption of around 2.85 million tons. If production drops this year, Sri Lanka’s rice imports could increase significantly this year.Meanwhile, the government has asked traders to sell popular rice varieties in the price band of Rs.60 – 77 per kilogram (about $460 - $590 per ton) following reports of sharp increase in rice prices in the country. Tags: Sri Lanka rice imports, Sri Lanka rice production, Sri Lanka rice prices, Drought

Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Mexico Peso, Euro Advance 0.4% Apr 09, 2014

U.S. dollar index was down -0.32% from the open today, when it traded at 79.495 at the close.

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Euro was stronger +0.40% by the close, trading around 1.3852 by end of day, after trading between an intraday high of 1.3858 and low of 1.3780. Thai baht was stronger +0.21%, trading at 32.200 at the close of business. Indian rupee was weaker -0.02% at 60.1350. Brazilian real was stronger +0.13% at the close of trading today, trading at 2.1997 reais per dollar. Pakistan rupee was +0.22% stronger at 97.8830. Vietnamese dong was unchanged at 21095. Mexican peso was stronger +0.41% today, when it traded at 12.9963 pesos per dollar by the close of business. Chinese yuan was weaker -0.05%, trading at 6.2000. Argentine peso was stronger +0.01% at 8.0012 pesos per dollar.

Tags: foreign exchange rates

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Steady After USDA Report Shows Stocks Unchanged Apr 09, 2014

The U.S. cash market held steady today after the USDA WASDE report left their long grain ending stocks projection unchanged from last month. According to the USDA estimate, long grain domestic use increased by 2 million cwts (about 90,719 tons) which was completely offset by decreasing long grain exports by the same amount, leaving the market with an estimated 16.3 million cwts (about 739,356 tons) carryover. As of today, old crop offers could be found as low as $15.55 per cwt fob farm (about $343 per ton) for nearby shipment although most farmers have their sights set on netting $16.11 per cwt fob farm (about $355 per ton) or higher. Bids from larger mills decreased today to around $15.25 per cwt (about $336 per ton) for April-May delivery while bids for exporters were unchanged near $15.40-$15.65 per cwt (about $340-$345 per ton), for the same delivery period, and there are still reports of smaller mills bidding between $16.00-$16.30 per cwt (about $353-$359 per ton) for prompt delivery. Tags: U.S. rice prices, U.S. rice market

India Wastes Upto 30% of Annual Foodgrain Production Due to Poor Storage Facilities Apr 09, 2014

The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) says that around 20 - 30% of total foodgrain harvest in India is wasted annually due to poor storage facilities.ASSOCHAM says that around

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30-40% foodgrains is stored in an unprofessional manner during the peak marketing season in India. This along with other factors such as inadequate storage capacity, regional imbalance in warehouses, lack of adequate scientific storage and inefficient logistic management leads to wastage of around 20-30% of total foodgrain production in India. According to ASSOCHAM, the market size of warehouse in India stood at over Rs. 22,800 crore (about $4.5 billion using historical exchange rates) in FY 2011 (April – March). The warehousing capacity for major foodgrains available in India, in public, co-operative and private sector is over 112 million tons. However, there is an extreme dearth of about 35 million tons of warehousing capacity and a massive foodgrain storage shortfall of about 8 million tons in the country to be filled by 2017. “India needs to recalibrate its strategy to mitigate the challenges of high food grain wastage due to lack of scientific storage facilities,” says ASSOCHAM.ASSOCHAM also says that most warehouses in India have been built following the traditional norms and without proper specification but even some of the modern warehouses do not meet international standards. Total foodgrain production in India stands at around 255 million tons which includes around 105 million tons of rice (milled basis). In 2012, the government claimed that the state foodgrains buying agency, the Food Corporation of India (FCI), has reduced wastage of foodgrains from 2.5% five years ago to 0.006% in 2012 despite the 150% growth in foodgrain stocks during the period. The Food Minister had called the reduction in wastage a major achievement of the FCI.According to ASSOCHAM, about 70% of warehousing space in India is owned by government agencies. Tags: India foodgrain wastage, India foodgrain production, India foodgrain storage, India rice storage, India rice wastage

Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Move Higher as Traders Anticipate April USDA Update Apr 09, 2014

Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery are currently paused 5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) higher overnight at $15.625 per cwt (about $344 per ton) as of 8:00am Chicago time. The other grains are also seen higher this morning ahead of floor trading in Chicago: soybeans are currently seen about 0.8% higher, wheat was paused about 0.8% higher, and corn is noted about 0.1% higher. U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open on Wall Street on Wednesday, after better-than-expected results from Alcoa boosted investor sentiment. Outside of the corporate space, the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's March 18-19 meeting will be in focus. On a related note, the Fed's Daniel Tarullo will speak on Wednesday on financial stability, and may give more details about the recently announced bank leverage rule. The major data release during the day will be wholesale inventories for February at 10 a.m. U.S. stock index futures are currently trading about 0.3% higher, gold is currently trading about 0.4% lower, crude oil is seen trading marginally higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.1% higher at 8:00am Chicago time. Tags: chicago rough rice futures, U.S. rice prices, U.S. rice market

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Vietnam Rice Exports to Face Stiff Competition from Thailand in Second Quarter of 2014, Says VFA Chairman Apr 09, 2014

Vietnam is likely to face a stiff competition for its rice exports from Thailand in the second quarter (April June) of 2014, according to the Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA).The VFA is targeting exports of about 6.7 to 7 million tons of rice in 2014, but Vietnam’s rice exports have declined so far this year, reaching about 1.22 million tons of rice in the first quarter (January - March) of 2014. The VFA chairman told local sources that one of the reasons for the decline was high domestic rice prices. In comparison, Thailand exported nearly 2 million tons of rice between January 1 and March 25, 2014, up about 33% from about 1.5 million during the same period in 2013.While China accounted for 40% of Vietnam's rice exports in the first quarter of 2014, Philippines accounted for about 31% of the country's exports. The VFA chairman says Vietnam is likely to face a stiff competition from Thailand in winning the Philippines tender for 800,000 tons of 15% broken white rice on April 15. The VFA chairman says Thailand is capable of supplying all the required rice to the Philippines. He says that the selling price would be the decisive factor in winning the bid. "If our price is high, we could fail in the tender. But if we offer a low price, local enterprises could suffer losses,” he says.The VFA says that trade deals in the world market would also influence Vietnam’s exports. Thailand is planning to sell 200,000 tons of 5% broken rice to the Malaysia-based Bernas firm at $385 per ton, according to unconfirmed reports, says VFA. Tags: Vietnam rice exports, Thailand rice exports, Philippines rice imports, China rice imports, Vietnam Food Association (VFA), bernas

USDA Post Expects Dominican Republic MY 2014-15 Rice Production to Increase to 542,000 Tons

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The USDA Post says that Dominican Republic rice production is likely to increase to around 542,000 tons (about 809,000 tons, basis paddy) in MY 2014-15 (July 2014 - June 2015), up about 3,000 tons or about 0.4% from an estimated 540,000 tons of rice (about 806,000 tons, basis paddy) produced in MY 2013-14. The Ministry of Agriculture of the Dominican Republic (MoA) data shows that the country's paddy rice production in 2013 (January - December) was about 800,032 tons (about 536,022 tons of milled rice), up about 9% from 734,079 tons (491,833 tons of milled rice) in 2012. The area harvested declined marginally by about 533 hectares to 160,360 hectares in 2013, while the average yield increased to 4.99 tons per hectare in 2013 from 4.56 tons per hectare in 2012, according to the MoA. Based on the data from the MoA, the Post expects both harvested area and average yield to be stable in 2014 and 2015.The National Rice Commission (CONA) supports rice production in the Dominican Republic through a yearly price band for paddy rice under the Pignoracian Program for two harvest periods (May and September). This band is based on historic prices, varieties and production estimates. The government does not impose value-added tax (VAT) on rice.According to the Post, rice consumption in the Dominican Republic is expected to increase to 553,000 tons in MY 2014-15 from an estimated 544,000 tons in MY 2013-14. According to the MoA, rice consumption declined by about 3% to 542,000 tons in 2013 from 560,000 tons in 2012 due to relatively higher prices. The MoA says that Dominicans consumed 52.6 kilograms each in 2013, down 4% from 54.8 pounds in 2012.The Post says that both imports and exports by the Dominican Republic are limited because the country has been self-sufficient in rice in the last several years. Almost 91% of the imports come from the U.S. due to a TRQ established under the CAFTA-DR agreement. The Dominican Republic negotiated that rice be placed in Basket V under the CAFTA-DR agreement, which calls for 99% out-of-quota tariff rate for rice imports until 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, the non-quota tariff rate will be reduced by 8% annually, and from years 2021 to 2025 by 12% annually. However, the Post estimates Dominican Republic rice imports to increase to 13,000 tons in MY 2014-15 from an estimated 12,000 tons in MY 2013-14 due to increase in consumption. It estimates the country's exports to remain stable at 8,000 tons in MY 2013-14 and MY 2014-15. The Post reports that the Dominican Republic maintains stocks equal to 40% of consumption, and based on that it estimates stocks at 171,000 tons in MY 2013-14 and 165,000 tons in MY 2014-15. Tags: Dominican Republic rice production, Dominican Republic rice consumption, Dominican Republic rice imports, Dominican Republic rice exports, Dominican Republic rice stocks

Bangladesh Rice Import Value Surges Twelve Fold in First Eight Months of FY 2013-14 Bangladesh's spending on rice imports have increased twelve fold during the first eight months of FY 2013-14 (July 2013 - June 2014), compared with that of the same period in FY 2012-13, according to the Bangladesh Bank.The Bank’s data shows that actual import settlements for rice stood at $171.58 million between July 2013 and February 2014 against $13.24 million during the same period last year, say local sources.

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The Bank also says that rice imports surged despite an increase in rice production in FY 2012-13. Decline in international rice prices, increase in domestic rice prices, appreciation of Bangladeshi taka against the U.S. dollar are the main reasons for surge in rice imports, according to the Bangladesh Bank.According to the Bangladesh Bank, average rice prices in the international market declined by around 14.3% to about 393 per ton during the first six months of FY 2013-14 from $458.5 per ton in FY 2012-13. Average rice prices in the international market were $504.5 per ton in FY 2011-12 and $ 470.7 per ton in FY 2010-11, according to the Bank report. In comparison, average prices of imported rice were Tk 30.65 per kilogram (around $388 per ton), while the average domestic rice prices stood between Tk 38 and TK 40 per kilogram (around $482 - $507 per ton) during the first six months of FY 2013-14 (July – December), says the Bank. According to the Ministry of Food, Bangladesh imported 374,560 tons of rice between July, 1 2013 and April 7, 2014, of which 371,500 tons are imported by the private sector and 3,060 tons are imported by the government. The country imported only 28,930 tons of rice in FY 2012-13, of which 25,270 tons were imported by the private sector and 3,660 tons were imported by the government.The USDA projects Bangladesh’s rice imports to reach around 400,000 tons in MY 2013-14 (May - April), up 1,043% from 35,000 tons of rice imported in MY 2012-13. Tags: Bangladesh rice import value, Bangladesh rice production, Bangladesh rice consumption, Bangladesh rice imports

Indonesia Government to Formulate New Rules for Premium Rice Imports Apr 09, 2014

The Indonesian government is planning to formulate new rules for the importation of premium rice to prevent illegal rice imports, according to local sources.Indonesia imports medium quality rice only through the stateowned logistics agency Bulog, but allows the private sector to import premium quality rice. However, reports claimed that some private importers were importing cheap medium quality rice. A government investigation found that the allegations were false.However, the new trade minister wants to improve the rice import structure to prevent misuse. The Minister says, “We aim to regulate who can and cannot import and by doing this we can easily detect who is responsible for illegal imports.” Under the new policy, rice importers would be divided into producer importers and registered importers. Producer importers are those who use rice for production of other rice related products such as noodles, and registered importers are those who resell it to local buyers and distributors. The Director-General for Foreign Trade says that import supervision mechanism would be tightened and importers would undergo a series of verification processes before being declared as producer or registered importers, and special teams would be assigned to check warehouses of importers and to track the source of imports. He also says that under the new policy, the government aims to categorize rice by harmonized system (HS) codes, which would allow the authorities to differentiate medium rice from premium rice easily.In 2013, Indonesia produced about 37 million tons of rice, against a consumption of 35 million tons. The country imported 50,000 tons of premium rice from Thailand and Vietnam last year. USDA estimates Indonesia to

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produce about 37.36 million tons of rice in MY 2013-14, up 2% from 36.56 million tons produced in MY 201213. The U.S. agency estimates Indonesia to import 1.5 million tons of rice this year. Tags: Indonesia rice imports, Indonesia rice production, Indonesia rice consumption, Indonesia rice smuggling

Thailand Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today Apr 09, 2014

Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for parboiled rice by about $5 per ton to about $420 - $430 per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged. 5% Broken Rice Thai 5% rice (of new crop) is quoted around $380 - $390 per ton, on par with Viet 5% rice shown around $380 $390 per ton. Indian 5% rice is quoted around $425 - $435 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium over Pak 5% rice quoted around $405 - $415 per ton. 25% Broken Rice Thai 25% rice of the old crop is quoted about $345 - $355 per ton, about a $5 per ton discount to Viet 25% rice shown around $350 - $360 per ton. Indian 25% rice is quoted around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $5 per ton premium over Pak 25% rice quoted around $365 - $375 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thai parboiled rice of the old crop is quoted around $420 - $430 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. Indian parboiled rice is quoted around $410 - $420 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to Pak parboiled rice last quoted around $420 - $430 per ton. 100% Broken Rice Thai broken rice, A1 Super, of the old crop is quoted around $300 - $310 per ton, about a $30 per ton discount to Viet broken rice shown around $330 - $340 per ton. Indian broken sortexed rice is quoted around $305 - $315 per ton, about a $35 per ton discount to Pak broken sortexed rice quoted around $340 - $350 per ton. Tags: Asia rice quotes, Thailand rice quotes, Vietnam rice quotes, Pakistan rice quotes, India rice quotes

USDA Post Forecasts South Korea MY 2014-15 Rice Imports at 410,000 Tons Apr 09, 2014

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The USDA Post says that South Korea is likely to import about 410,000 tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (November – October) under the Most Favored Nation (MFN) quota allocations as the country plans to liberalize the rice market by the end of 2014.The Post says that South Korea plans to import the 408,700 tons scheduled to be imported under the 2014 WTO Minimum Market Access (MMA) from the middle of March 2014 to help stabilize domestic rice prices and meet its obligation of MMA rice imports within the calendar year. It will purchase 203,472 tons under the global quota (GQ) and 205,228 tons under the country specific quotas (CSQ). In 2013, South Korea purchased around 388,353 tons of rice from the U.S., China, Thailand, Australia, Vietnam and India. The Post expects South Korea's rice production to decline to around 4.15 million tons in MY 2014-15, down about 2% from around 4.23 million tons in MY 2013-14 based on the five-year average yield. Rice area planted is expected to decline to 826,000 hectares in MY 2014-15, down from 833,000 hectares in MY 2013-14. The Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI) says rice farmers prefer high yield varieties to maximize returns and offset the effects of declining paddy land. However, the Post expects yields to decline to 6.65 tons per hectare in MY 2014-15 from 6.76 tons per hectare in the previous year.

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The government supports rice farmers through the Rice Income Compensation Act (RICA). In 2013, it paid a total of 685 billion Korean Won ($625 million) to farmers under the RICA.South Korea's rice consumption is expected to decline to 4.58 million tons in MY 2014-15, down from an estimated 4.6 million tons in MY 201314. The Post says that imported rice constitutes about 9% of total consumption. It also reports that per capita table rice consumption has declined from 69.8 kilograms in MY 2011-12 to 66.2 kilograms in MY 2014-15. Rising incomes and the growing popularity of Western foods are lowering the per capita consumption of rice in South Korea. Tags: South Korea rice imports, South Korea rice production, South Korea rice consumption,

Oryza Global Rice Quotes April 9th, 2014 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 395-405 Vietnam 5% broken 380-390 ↔ India 5% broken 425-435 ↔ Pakistan 5% broken 405-415 ↔ Cambodia 5% broken 440-450 ↓ U.S. 4% broken 580-590 ↔ Uruguay 5% broken 620-630 ↔ Argentina 5% broken 615-625 ↔ Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken 345-355 ↔ Vietnam 25% broken 350-360 ↔ Pakistan 25% broken 365-375 ↔ Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 India 25% broken 370-380 ↔ U.S. 15% broken 555-565 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 420-430 Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 420-430 India parboiled 5% broken stxd 410-420 U.S. parboiled 4% broken 660-670 ↔ Brazil parboiled 5% broken 590-600 ↔ Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔ Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92%

940-950

↑ ↔ ↔

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Vietnam Jasmine 485-495 ↔ India basmati 2% broken 1515 -1525 Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Cambodia Phka Malis 855-865 ↓ Brokens Thailand A1 Super 300-310 ↔ Vietnam 100% broken 330-340 Pakistan 100% broken stxd 340-350 Cambodia A1 Super 355-365 ↔ India 100% Broken stxd 305-315 Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔ U.S. pet food 470-480 ↔ Brazil half grain 345-355 ↔ Medium grain milled U.S. Calrose 4% broken Egypt medium grain 6%

1070-1080 NQ ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

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