M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM REGIONAL Office Q2 2021
YoY Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
Overview The economic growth is expected to be back on track and increase by 5.5% in 2021 due to the success of the vaccination campaign and the relaxing of constraining measures. This means that GDP growth will be around pre-crisis levels at the end of 2021 after which growth levels will stabilise at 3.3% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023. The unemployment rate is forecasted at 5.8% this year and should peak in 2022 at around 6%. It is expected that a lot of temporarily unemployed people will resume work in the second half of 2021 or will be able to find new jobs.
140K Take-up sq m (YTD)
165 Prime rent, (EUR/sq m/year)
Occupier focus
5.25% Prime yield (3/6/9 lease)
ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q2 2021 YoY Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
5.5% 2021 GDP Growth
5.8% Unemployment Rate
2.2% Consumer Price Index
In Q2, Flanders take-up decreased 31% to 43,000 sq m spread across 85 deals. Only the Ghent market overperformed, having recorded 23,000 sq m of take-up (more than Antwerp – a fairly rare occurrence), thanks to a handful of large deals. Chief among these was the own-occupation purchase of Green Court by Partena (7,500 sq m) followed by a 3,600 sq m pre-letting by Fluvius in ION’s Pulse project in The Loop. These deals demonstrate the pull of a decent speculative pipeline for occupiers hesitating to relocate to efficient/well thought out spaces in a post-COVID-19 market. Wallonia Q2 activity also decreased (-6%) with 17,000 sq m of take-up. However, the story would be very different were it not for a 10,000 sq m own-occupation development by VINCI Energies Belgium in Gosselies. The pipeline is strong (226,000 sq m by 2023) but consists mostly of committed schemes outside of Charleroi which is undergoing dynamic renewal phase of renewal. Prime rents remain stable at EUR 165/sq m/year in Antwerp and Ghent in Flanders, and EUR 160/sq m//year in Liège and Namur in Wallonia
Investment focus An impressive EUR 167 million were invested in regional offices during Q2, bringing the total after six months to EUR 229 million. A landmarkt EUR 110 million purchase of Baltisse’s AXS by AG Real Estate in Namur demonstrates the strategic value of locating new projects near train stations. Prime yields remain stable at 5.25% and apply to Antwerp and Ghent.
Outlook Prime yields are forecast to remain stable this year before possibly sharpening in 2022. We still expect occupier demand to be subdued (save the odd market-changing very large deal) and prime rents to remain stable. TAKE-UP, SQ M
INVESTMENT VOLUME PER REGION, EUR M
400,000
800
35
300,000
600
30 25
200,000
400
20 15
100,000
200
10 5
Source: NationalBank of Belgium, June 2021 Please note the economic data can vary significantly from one source to the other. Therefore, the figures provided should merely be used as an indication or trend.
0
0 2017
2018
Flanders regional markets
2019
2020
H1 2021
Wallonia regional markets
0 2017 2018 2019 Flanders regional markets # deals (RHS)
2020 H1 2021 Wallonia regional markets