M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM REGIONAL Office Q1 2021
YoY Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
Overview Economic growth has been severely hit in 2020 (-8%). due to higher unemployment, subdued external demand and a limited fiscal response. It should observe a strong rebound in 2021 (around 3.5%) and remain positive, though at a gradually decelerating rate up to 2023. The unemployment rate will continue to rise in 2021 as a direct consequence of the COVID-19 outbreak. As from 2022, situation is expected to improve with new job creations (close to 46,000 in 2022 and 47,000 in 2023).
81K Take-up sq m (YTD)
165
Occupier focus
Prime rent, (EUR/sq m/year)
Flanders Q1 take-up amounted to more than 62,000 sq m across 70 deals, demand was high compared to historical quarterly levels. Major movers were the higher education sector with both UGent and KU Leuven in the mix. The pandemic should continue to impact the market negatively, but the speculative pipeline is healthy for coming years and could entice certain occupiers to move to more efficient spaces. Notable projects include TheM (Intervest Office & Warehouses, 14,000 sq m) or the renovation and new buildings of Century Center’s offices by Baltisse over several phases (Pelican, Arto and Novo, more than 13,000 sq m in total) in Antwerp, or Green Court (Baltisse), Upoffiz (Upgrade Estate) or Networks Gent One and Two (Banimmo, 15,000 sq m) in Ghent. Meanwhile, Wallonia activity in Q1 was more than 18,000 sq m across only 10 deals, including - crucially - the awaited announcement of Ethias’ new headquarters in Liège (15,000 sq m). Prime rents remain stable at EUR 165/sq m/year in Antwerp joined by Ghent at this level this quarter, and EUR 160/sq m//year in Liège and Namur
5.25% Prime yield (3/6/9 lease)
ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q1 2021 YoY Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
3.5% 2021 GDP Growth
7.4% Unemployment Rate
1.7%
Investment focus More than EUR 62 million have been invested in regional office markets during Q1 – a pretty standard start to the year, dominated by own occupier activity in Flanders, and Antwerp in particular, including a purchase by KULeuven of The Edge, a project developed by Alphastone, for EUR 19 million. Prime yields remain stable at 5.25% in these specialist market.
Outlook Prime yields are forecasted to sharpen to 5.15% by the end of the year given the increased interest in these markets of late, coupled with some quality assets arriving on the market. We expect occupier demand to be subdued and prime rents to remain stable.
Consumer Price Index
TAKE-UP, SQ M
INVESTMENT VOLUME PER REGION, EUR M
400,000
800
35 30
Source: National Bank of Belgium, and Eurostat April 2021
300,000
600
25 20
200,000
400
100,000
200
0
0
15 10 5
2017
2018
Flanders regional markets
2019
2020
Q1 2021
Wallonia regional markets
0 2017 2018 2019 Flanders regional markets # deals (RHS)
2020 Q1 2021 Wallonia regional markets