M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM Industrial Q3 2020 YoY Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
502 (L) 525 (SI) Take-up (YTD) (000s sq m)
58 (L) 63 (SI)
Overview Economic data suggests that the post-lockdown rebound had been slightly stronger than expected earlier this year. GDP was revised up slightly to -7.8% in 2020, up from -8.7% previously estimated. The economy is expected to rebound in 2021 with an economic growth of 5.6%, with risks and uncertainties on the downside. Concerns about unemployment, however, remain high, putting pressure on consumer spending. Furthermore, total output and employment are not expected to return to pre-crisis levels before 2022. The unemployment rate, expected at 6.1% by the end of 2020, is forecasted to increase to 6.9% in 2021. CPI is expected to remain low at 0.8% in 2020 and 1.9% for 2021.
Prime rent, (EUR/sq m/year)
Occupier focus Semi-industrial activity Increased for the second quarter in succession to amount to take-up of close to 197,000 sq m in Q3 (+15%) brought about in part by an increase in the number of deals recorded. Considering the challenging circumstances, the dynamic is encouraging and not too far off the quarterly average of 234,000 sq m. Meanwhile, the logistics market has frequently been in the headlines as its crucial role to navigate the pandemic has been highlighted (increased importance of e-commerce, pharma logistics, etc.). Nevertheless, this fails to wholly translate into take-up numbers with 159,000 sq m recorded in Q3 (-41%). The number of deals each quarter has been pretty consistently around 15, so a lack of larger transactions is the main cause for this decrease.
4.90 (L) 6.70 (SI) Prime yield (%, 3/6/9 lease) L: logistics SI: semi-industrial
ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q3 2020 YoY Chg
-7.8% GDP Growth (2020)
-9.3% GVA growth Manufacturing, transportation & storage
-4.6% Industrial production (2020) Source: Oxford Economics
12-Mo. Forecast
Investment focus The feel-good factor around logistics is especially witnessed in the investment market, where despite no investments of note in Q3, a strong pipeline is lined up for the end of the year, with foreign investors flocking to Belgium and demand higher than ever. This is reflected in our prime yield figure which has decreased below the 5% threshold, such is the strength of demand currently noted. In the meantime, the semi-industrial segment, traditionally an occupier market as far as investments are concerned, has recorded close to EUR 40 million of investments in Q3, including some acquisitions by institutional-type investors.
Outlook We expect a strong end of year, particularly where logistics are concerned with interesting pipelines both in terms of occupier and investment activity. INVESTMENT VOLUME PER TYPE, EUR M
TAKE-UP, SQ M 2,500,000
500
2,000,000
400
1,500,000
300
1,000,000
200
500,000
100
0
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
0 2016
2017 Logistics
2018 Semi-industrial
2019
Q1-Q3 2020
2016 Logistics
2017
2018 Semi-industrial
2019
Q1-Q3 2020 # deals (RHS)