M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM Industrial Q2 2020 YoY Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
343 (L) 329 (SI) Take-up (YTD) (000s sq m)
58 (L) 63 (SI)
Occupier focus
Prime rent, (EUR/sq m/year)
Semi-industrial activity Increased marginally in Q2 to record take-up at 171,000 sq m, a tribute to the sector’s resilience amid the COVID19 sanitary crisis. Furthermore, logistics activity has come leaps and bounds since the slow start recorded in Q1. Q2 indicates as much as 268,000 sq m. Brussels, Wallonia and Flanders all registered dynamic demand. Several large deals took place, led by the development of 60,000 sq m in additional spaces for Jost at Trilogiport (Liège, Wallonia). All eyes are on logistics as it is one of the few CRE sectors expected to profit from the pandemic thanks to an explosion in e-commerce.
5.00 (L) 6.80 (SI) Prime yield (%, 3/6/9 lease) L: logistics SI: semi-industrial
ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q2 2020 YoY Chg
-8.7% GDP Growth (2020)
-10%
Overview Following the heavy economic blow caused by the coronavirus-related lockdown, indicators and surveys confirm activity is now rebounding. In particular, surging expectations in both business and consumer confidence surveys support the view that recovery is underway. Oxford Economics’ GDP growth forecast indicated that the Belgian economy will contract by 8.7% this year followed by a rebound in 2021 when a 7.1% growth is expected. However, subsequent growth (up to mid-2022) will be much more gradual as higher unemployment (forecasted at 6.6% for 2020), subdued external demand, delayed investment plans and a limited fiscal response due to the return of the political deadlock, will slow the recovery.
Investment focus 12-Mo. Forecast
A strong resilient occupier market will be welcomed as music to investors’ ears. However, demand had already been surging thus far, as indicated by two large portfolio deals, which helped drive Q2 investments to total of EUR 225 million. Indeed, Prologis purchased a multiregion portfolio from AG Real Estate for more than EUR 120 million, the largest logistics transaction in over a decade. In addition, CBREGI has proceeded to purchase two prime developments from MG Real Estate at De Hulst in Willebroek for EUR 75 million.
Outlook Often considered a niche segment, it is fair to expect competition for industrial assets to grow, driving values up. Sale & leaseback operations may add extra assets to the market, freeing up crucial liquidity for occupiers.
GVA growth Manufacturing, transportation & storage
-7.6% Industrial production (2020) Source: Oxford Economics
INVESTMENT VOLUME PER TYPE, EUR M
TAKE-UP, SQ M 2,500,000
500
35
2,000,000
400
1,500,000
300
20
1,000,000
200
15
500,000
100
0
0
30 25
10
2016
2017 Logistics
2018 Semi-industrial
2019
H1 2020
5 0 2016
2017 Logistics
2018 Semi-industrial
2019
H1 2020 # deals (RHS)