July cult current 2017

COVER STORY

#POSITIVE INDIA

UNSUNG HERO

D

Kavita Devi

evi hails from Haryana and underwent rigorous training under former WWE Champion, The Great Khali at his Punjab based wrestling promotion and training academy.

The wrestler came into limelight after participating in the WWE Dubai try-out in April this year. Her strong performance impressed the talent scouts. Devi was an accomplished kabaddi player in high school. In 2016, she won gold in the 75kg weightlifting division at the South Asian Games. Inside the ring, Devi has racked up victories using a head-caving roundhouse kick. As a Sashastra Seema Bal constable from Haryana, Devi shot to fame after a viral video. She wrestled a woman wrestler named B B Bull Bull at the Continental Wrestling Entertainment (CWE), promoted by The Great Khali, in a salwar kameez! l

3 |JULY-2017|

EDITORIAL EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Prof. Pradeep K Mathur

WE ARE

OPINION EDITOR Sanjay Srivastava CORPORATE EDITOR Gagan Batra

CO-ORDINATING EDITOR Dr. Seema Rafique D.N. Srivastava

EDITOR Srirajesh

NATIONAL EDITOR Dr. Raja Ram Tripathi METRO EDITOR Manoj Bisaria Vandan Kumar

DIGITAL EDITOR Jalaj Srivastava

POLITICAL EDITOR Ram Shiromani Shukla SPORTS EDITOR Vishwajeet Kumar

FOREIGN EDITOR Rosy Kashyap

ASSOCIATE EDITOR Lokesh Sharma

COPY EDITOR l Arun Patel l Sandeep Kumar

REPORTING

SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT l Vikas Kumar l Satish Mukhiya l Kamlesh Jha

Art

CORRESPONDENT l Jaya Verma, l Sandeep Singh l Anirudha Singh

CHIEFS OF BUREAU (INTERNATIONAL)

Art Editor Anwar-ul- Huque

CHIEFS OF BUREAU (NATIONAL)

l Akul Batra (USA)

l Sanjay Kumar (Lucknow)

l C. Sieuwratan (Netherland) l G. Verma (London, UK)

l Vijay K. Pandey (Kolkata) l Bharat P Yadav (Raipur)

l A. Asgarzadeh (Iran)

l Kamal Mansoor (Bhopal)

l Dr. Nic Sheri (Malaysia)

l Anirudha Yadav (Guwahati)

l A. Abraham Sharjah (UAE)

PHOTOGRAPHER Ravi Singh WEB & IT ADMIN Anuj Singh

l Sandeep Kumar (Patna)

l Dr. Md. Faheem Akbar (Pakistan)

PRODUCTION K KVerma

l Shatrughna Prasad (Mumbai)

MARKETING

Inaugural Issue

GENERAL MANAGER R P Chauhan

CIRCULATION

Manager (Operation) Rajesh Kumar

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EXECUTIVE OFFICER

EXECUTIVE OFFICER TejendraJha, PriyanshuPandey

l Om Prakash Dubey l Prem Hans Singh

DELENG19447

Editorial/Business office

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Vol.: 01, Issue : 04, July-2017

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URJAS MEDIA VENTURE India Office : G-84, 3rd Floor, East Vinod Nagar, New Delhi- 110091, INDIA, Tel: +91-11-2277-0485 USA Office: 14601, Belaire Blvd, Houston, Texas 77083, USA, Tel: +1 (832) 644-0054 E-mail: editor@cultcurrent.com, info@urjasmedia.com, Web:www.cultcurrent.com, www.urjasmedia.com Owned, published, and printed by Rajesh Srivastava at G-84, 3rd Floor, East Vinod Nagar, New Delhi- 110091, and printed at Royal offset, D 492 Patpargunj Industrial Area, New Delhi- 110092.

Editor : Rajesh Srivastava All right reserved and no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any means without the prior written consent of the publisher.

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COVER STORY

24

MODI’S GRAPH ON DECLINING?

20

BEIJING'S DILEMMA

HOW TO WIN YOUNG HEARTS OF HONG KONG

18

HAMZA BIN LADEN HELPING AL-QAEDA

14 THE IDEA OF CREATING A NEW UNIVERSE...

BRAZIL'S BATTLE AGAINST CORRUPTION 30 MORE PAKISTANI STUDENTS LEARNING CHINESE TODAY THAN BEFORE 32 THE COLLAPSE OF PARLIAMENTARY POLITICS 42

34

ISRAEL’S SECRET PLAN TO THROW OUT AFRICAN REFUGEES

JAPAN’S GOVERNMENT IS IN TWO MINDS ON SMOKING SOLAR ENERGY EMPOWERSCOMMUNITIES...

RISE AND FALL OF YOGI ADITYANATH

44 46 50

ITOWARDS THE FIERCE PEASANT’S MOVEMENT 52 THE ARITHMETIC BEHIND INDIA’S GST

MAKING CROP INSURANCE MANDATORY

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56

60

CONTENT

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GLOBAL LEADERSHIP USA STEPS BACK INDIA STEPS AHEAD

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KHUSHI AUDITIONED FOR A DANCE REALITY SHOW?

FROM HERE AND THERE

WANT TO BLOCK BAD MEMORIES?

INVISIBLE ANIMALS

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ALIA BHATT

PLAYS KASHMIRI UNDERCOVER AGENT IN ‘RAAZI’

e’ve all heard of chameleons, squid and octopus using pigments to blend in with their surroundings, but what about becoming completely invisible? To become actually see through, and appear as if you aren’t there, you need to either allow light to travel through you unimpeded, or bend light around you - so that none reflects back at an observer. It’s a tricky task, but some animals are almost there. In the ocean animals have two choices if they want to hide. Creatures that live in the deep ocean close to the seafloor can blend in with sand or rocks, or hide in coral. l

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WORLD'S LIGHTEST SATELLITE DESIGNED

BY INDIAN STUDENT

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ndia once again broke a global space record by launching the world's lightest satellite weighing a mere 64 grams, called Kalamsat, designed and developed not by professional space scientists and engineers, but by 18-year-old Tamil Nadu student Rifath Sharook and his team.

The tiny satellite, named after Abdul Kalam, was flown by a Nasa sounding rocket and the lift-off was from the space agency's Wallop Island facility around 3pm (IST). l

A

fter weeks of speculation about Alia Bhatt’s next role, the confirmation: she will play an undercover agent in Meghna Gulzar’s Raazi. Produced

by Junglee Pictures and Dharma Productions, the film is an adapation of Harinder Sikka’s 2008 novel Calling Sehmat. Set against the backdrop of the 1971 Indo-Pak war, the movie will see Bhatt as Kashmiri undercover agent Sehmat Khan, who is married to a Pakistani army officer (Vicky Kaushal). Sikka’s novel is based on a real-life story.

Raazi follows Gulzar’s critical and commercial hit Talvar (2015), based on the Aarushi-Hemraj double murder in 2008. “I am trying to do something in a new space, recreating India and Pakistan of the ’70s on sets and real locations,” Gulzar told the Mumbai Mirror in an interview. l

hile there are many ways to boost your memory, there are certain incidents that you would rather forget. While there was no way to do so till now, a new study suggests that memories that trigger anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) could be erased without affecting other important memories of past events. The finding could help develop drugs that can treat anxiety without affecting the patient’s normal memory, researchers said.l

HONDA TO BRING NEW-GEN CR-V TO INDIA IN 2018

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ccording to media reports, Honda is planning to launch the new-gen CR-V in India. While the company is yet to make an official announcement on the same, it is being reported that the car will be launched sometime next year. The India-spec model of the fifth-generation CR-V is likely to be similar to what is currently on sale in Thailand. Therefore, the India-bound crossover is expected to come with a 7-seater layout, instead of the 5-seater arrangement found on the American models. In terms of styling, the new CR-V gets a more aggressive design compared to its predecessor. l

HIJAB-WEARING MODEL APPEARS ON FRONT PAGE OF US MAGAZINE

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19-year-old Somali-American has become the first ever hijab-wearing model to appear on the front page of a major US magazine. Halima Aden is featured on the July cover of American women's publication Allure.In a feature for the magazine, the model explained that it was always her choice to wear the hijab. "Not all Muslim women opt to cover their heads." she explained. "It's how I interpret my religion.l

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BUZZ & TRIBUTE

THEY SAID IT...

Anti-refugee and anti-immigrant policies around the world leave many stateless in a world of states.

Artist: Emrah Arikan (Turkey)

By Courtesy: http://www.sampsoniaway.org

Dalai Lama

Narendra Modi

Spiritual Leader

Prime Minister, India

Time is always moving forward and no force can stop it. At every moment, we have the option of using our time constructively or negatively.

THE TRIBUTE

J

Yeh kisi ek dal ki siddhi nahin hai, kisi ek sarkar ki siddhi nahin hai. Yah hum sab ki saanjhi virasat hai. Hum sab ke saanjhe prayason ka phal hai.

RD (Jehangir Ratanji Dadabhoy ) Tata India and sent J.R.D to England for higher was a French-born Indian aviator, enstudies in October 1923. In 1929, JRD retrepreneur, chairman of Tata Group and nounced his French citizenship and became the shareholder of Tata Sons. Born into an Indian citizen, and started working at Tata. the elite class Parsi family of India, the Tata In 1930 JRD married Thelma Vicaji, the niece family, he was the son of notable businessof Jack Vicaji, a colourful lawyer whom he man Ratanji Dadabhoy Tata and Suzanne hired to defend him on a charge of driving his Brière, the first woman in India to drive a car.

Bugatti too fast along Bombay's main promMuhammad Ali Jinnah, the founder of Pakenade, Marine Drive. Previously he had been istan, was married to Tata's niece, Rattanbai engaged to Dinbai Mehta, the future mother Petit. Tata became the first licensed pilot in of The Economist editor Shapur Kharegat. J. JRD TATA India, in 1929. He is best known for being the R. D. Tata was inspired early by pioneer Louis 29 July 1904 – 29 November 1993 founder of several industries under the Tata Blériot, and took to flying. On 10 February Group. JRD Tata was born as Jehangir on 29 1929, Tata obtained the first pilot licence isJuly 1904 into a Parsi family. He was the second child of busisued in India. He later came to be known as the father of Indian nessman Ratanji Dadabhoy Tata. He attended the Cathedral civil aviation. He founded India's first commercial airline, Tata and John Connon School, Bombay. Tata got educated in LonAirlines in 1932, which became Air India in 1946, now India's don, Japan, France and India. When his father joined the Tata national airline He was also a founding member of the first company he moved the whole family to London. During this Governing Body of NCAER, the National Council of Applied time, J.R.D's mother died at an early age of 43 while his father Economic Research in New Delhi, India's first independent was in India and his family was in France.After his mother's economic policy institute established in 1956. In 1968, he death, Ratanji Dadabhoy Tata decided to move his family to founded Tata Consultancy Services as Tata Computer Centre.l

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NATIONAL

US FITS IN THE INDIAN GOVT’S DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY!

BLATANT MISUSED SEDITION LAW IN MP

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DENOTIFIED TRIBES: CRIMINALITY IS BESTOWED RIGHT AT BIRTH

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he National Commission for Denotified, Nomadic and Semi-nomadic Tribes submitted its interim recommendations to the government in early June – nearly two-and-a-half years after it was constituted. The history of denotified tribes dates back to the early years of colonial rule. The tribe represents all those communities which were listed as ‘criminal’ under several versions of the Criminal Tribes Acts between 1871 and 1947. These communities were ‘denotified’ when the Acts were repealed after India’s independence.l

here does the US fit into the Indian government’s diplomatic strategy is obviously a relevant question to ask on the eve of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington.

A related question is what Modi will be looking to get out of the visit. This second question flows from the pointers established in the answers to the first. The signals from Delhi are somewhat mixed. Some influential voices outside the government, who are close to the power centre, speak of “uncertainties” in the relationship following the advent of a new administration in Washington. Others within the establishment are somewhat less agitated, underscoring that the Goldilocks soup of the relationship is in a good place, just right, neither too hot nor too cold. The Modi government clearly views its relationship with the US on the basis of all the highs achieved over the years since 2014. This involves good leadership-level chemistry with the previous US president, Barack Obama, an enhanced defense partnership during Modi’s previous visits. l

BJP PICKS OF KOVIND AS A ‘DALIT’ PRESIDENT BUT IT'S AGAINST AMBEDKAR’S IDEA OF DEMOCRACY

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he BJP’s presidential nominee, Ram Nath Kovind, has been the focus of public and media attention. But the question isn’t whether or not he is an appropriate choice; rather it has to do with the BJP’s audaciously opportune politics. After a momentous year that saw the death of Rohith Vemula, the Una incident, and much else by way of the party’s disdain for protesting Dalits and other democratic-minded citizens, the BJP’s choice of candidate is cruelly cynical. It is, however, not unusual, considering the manner in which the BJP endorsed the late A.P.J. Abdul Kalam’s candidature, and celebrated his ‘Muslimness’ in ways that effectively neutralised the Sangh parivar’s callous and founded disregard for Muslim lives and rights. l

USE OF TOBACCO AFFECTS THE ENVIRONMENT

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E

ven though the Madhya Pradesh police has dropped sedition charges against 15 Muslim men arrested for allegedly celebrating Pakistan’s victory against India in the Champion’s Trophy final and decided to book them under Section 153 A of the Indian Penal Code instead for disturbing communal harmony, the issue has stirred a debate on the gross abuse of the sedition law by the authorities. SC, in its order last year, had cautioned the police against misuse of the sedition law and directed them to follow its earlier Kedar Nath judgment. The order had come after advocate Prashant Bhushan, appearing for NGO Common Cause and S.P. Udayakumar said that there had been an increase in the number of sedition cases being filed and that the law of sedition was being grossly misused. l

ccording to WHO, tobacco kills seven million people each year. Its cultivation, processing, production and disposal also harms the ecology immensely. Tobacco smoke emissions spew thousands of tonnes of human carcinogens, toxic substances and greenhouse gases into the environment. Cigarette butts and other tobacco waste make up the largest number of individual pieces of litter in the world Tobacco cultivation and the curing process contributes towards deforestation, soil depletion, loss of soil nutrients and pollution due to the heavy use of agrochemicals. Tobacco manufacturing produces chemical wastes including nicotine. The tobacco industry is a heavy polluter and is enlisted under the ‘red category’ (industries identified by environment ministry as heavily polluting). l

8 |JULY-2017|

INDIA IS PLANNING A NETWORK OF HUMAN BREAST-MILK BANKS

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nion Health Secretary CK Mishra inaugurated a human milk bank at Lady Hardinge Medical College earlier this month. The Ministry of Health Family Welfare has been planning a network of human milk banks for 661 newborn care units across the country to feed newborn babies who cannot be nursed by their mothers.

This is a welcome step that can discourage the use of infant formula, which is not as nutritious as human breast-milk. But regulation of human milk banks to ensure safety and quality of milk need to be discussed before the government goes further with the much needed programme. l

UBER HIRES LAW FIRM TO PROBE HOW IT HANDLED RAPE CASE IN INDIA

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ber Technologies Inc has hired a law firm to investigate how it obtained the medical records of an Indian woman who was raped by an Uber driver in 2014. The review will focus in part on accusations from some current and former employees that bribes were involved, two people familiar with the matter told to media. The law firm O’Melveny & Myers LLP, which is in the early stages of the probe, was hired by the ride service after employees gave contradictory accounts of how Uber obtained the medical records, one of the people said.

The firm is also exploring whether former Chief Executive Travis Kalanick knew how Uber came into possession of the records, the person added. Kalanick through a spokesman declined to comment. Uber also declined to comment, and O’Melveny & Myers did not respond to a request for comment. Members of Uber’s board were briefed about the investigation in recent days, shortly before five major Uber investors sent a letter to Kalanick to demand his resignation, said the person. The probe was likely one reason the board turned against Kalanick, who stepped down on Tuesday, the first person said. The investigation is ongoing and has not reached any conclusions on whether Uber improperly obtained the records. Reuters has no evidence that bribery occurred. The rape victim sued Uber last week, accusing the ride service operator of improperly obtaining and sharing her medical records. l

RURAL HEALTHCARE IN INDIA OFTEN FAILS TO MEET THE EXPECTATIONS

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GORKHALAND DEMAND: FROM STREET PROTESTS TO SILENT RALLIES

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he hill district of West Bengal has been in the grip of protests demanding a separate state for the Nepali-speaking people.

The hills of Darjeeling and Kalimpong in West Bengal have been simmering for close to three weeks now.

The unrest began early in June, after Mamata Banerjee-led West Bengal government said the Bengali language would compulsorily be taught in schools across the state. The move met with strong resistance in the hill districts of Darjeeling and Kalimpong, home to predominantly Nepalispeaking Gorkhas. l

andana, a young woman married into a farmers’ family, lives in Nabipur village in block Trivediganj, in the district of Barabanki, right in the centre of Awadh in Uttar Pradesh. She had been complaining of a discomfort in her vagina for some time and but been ignoring, as per customary traditions for Indian women, but when it reached unmanageable proportions, she decided to pay a visit to the local health centre for diagnosis and treatment. Community health centres, or CHCs, are part of the country’s public health programme and as per the rule, are known to offer consultation and even treatment free of charge. The whole point of healthcare facilities in rural areas is to provide access to those who are living their lives in farflung places and are unable to afford it. However, the intended benefits of these centres don’t always reach the common man or woman who are, in theory, the intended beneficiaries. At the Haidergarh CHC, Vandana was in for a brutal shock. l

9 |JULY-2017|

INTERNATIONAL

WORLD POPULATION TO HIT 9.8 BILLION BY 2050

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igThe world population is now nearly 7.6 billion, up from 7.4 billion in 2015, spurred by the relatively high levels of fertility in developing countries – despite an overall drop in the number of children people have around the globe – the United Nations reported. The concentration of global population growth is in the poorest countries, according to World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, presenting a challenge as the international community seeks to implement the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, which seeks to end poverty and preserve the planet. “With roughly 83 million people being added to the world's population every year, the upward trend in population size is expected to continue, even assuming that fertility levels will continue to decline,” said the report's authors at the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

At this rate, the world population is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and surpass 11.2 billion in 2100. l

RUSSIAN NATIONAL DAY CELEBRATED

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n 12th June, 2017, New Delhi: Russian National Day was celebrated in Russian Centre. Mr.Sergey V. Karmalito (Senior Counsellor-Embassy of Russian Federation of India) was the Chief Guest of the celebration. On this auspicious occasion, some outstanding

ENVIRONMENTAL SWITZERLAND TOPS WORLD INNOVATION RIGHTS UNDER INDEX; INDIA EMERGING ATTACK IN BRAZIL nnovation is a key development tool that

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uman rights experts and an inter-American organization have denounced attacks on indigenous and environmental rights in Brazil, expressing concern over a Congressional report that accuses the UN of being “a confederation of non-governmental organizations influencing Brazilian policy.” “The rights of indigenous peoples and environmental rights are under attack in Brazil,” said the UN Special Rapporteurs on the rights of indigenous peoples, Victoria Tauli Corpuz, on human rights defenders, Michel Forst, and on the environment, John Knox, in a press release from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights(OHCHR).l

could boost economies and provide a way out of the growing squeeze on the world's food resources – one of the major challenges of the 21st century – according to a new United Nations report. “Innovation is the engine of economic growth in an increasingly knowledge-based global economy, but more investment is needed to help boost human creativity and economic output,” said Francis Gurry, Director-General of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) and coauthor of the 10th edition of the Global Innovation Index (GII): Innovation feeding the World. With an eye on how creativity in agriculture and the food sector is helping to feed the world – one of the major challenges of the 21st century.l

NOW NUCLEAR APPLICATIONS TO COMBAT FOOD FRAUD AND CONTAMINATION

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photos of Russia were exhibited & some short films were screened. Souvenir of IndoRussia Media Forum was also released in the presence of Mrs. Purnima Anand-Chairperson of BRICS International Forum, Mr.Arseny Starkov(Chief Consultant, Culture & Information, Russian Centre of Science & Culture), Mrs.Nana Mgeladze (Cultural Counsellor-Embassy of Russian Federation in India).l

hrough a joint project, the FAO and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are exploring mobile tools to combat food fraud and contamination, which result in global annual in the billions and pose a serious public health threat. Traditional, professional laboratories have the ability to detect different types of fraud and contamination in food relatively quickly but such capacity is often limited in many countries and by their nature not very portable. The FAO-IAEA initiative is trying to fill this gap. l

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 'BRICS' WELL PLACED TO LEAD CULTURE RELATES TO TACKLING HUNGER OCEAN s the clock ticks towards the 2030 deadline for meeting

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ceans comprise roughly threequarters of the Earth’s surface and play an essential role in human well-being, producing half the oxygen necessary for life on the planet.

They also serve as the backdrop for another important component of a well-rounded life: recreation.The multiple benefits provided by the world’s oceans, seas and marine resources are the focus of the firstever Ocean Conference taking place this week at UN Headquarters in New York. The Conference seeks to achieve the targets laid out under Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14, including galvanizing action on ocean-related issues such as protecting coral reefs, reducing plastic pollution, and addressing the impact of climate change. l

global goals to eradicate hunger and poverty, the UNA agency asserted that five vitally important emerging economies, known collective as the 'BRICS' countries, are well positioned to take a leading role in helping the world achieve these targets. These five countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – form an economic block that accounts for more than 40 per cent of the world's population and over 20 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP). Together, they produce more than one-third of global cereal production, with Russia becoming the largest wheat exporter in the world. l

DEMOCRAT'S NEW SLOGAN

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he long and arduous search is over, my friends. Polls have been taken, focus groups have been convened, ideas have been workshopped, brains have been stormed and racked. And now, Democrats have found what they've been looking for: A Better Deal." That is their slogan for 2018 and beyond. Behold its majesty. Bask in its glow. Or not.

Actually, it's ... fine. There's nothing terribly wrong with it, as slogans go. It suggests that there's a deficient deal now in operation, which is perfectly true, and that Democrats offer you something better. It's vague enough to incorporate almost any policy, at least any domestic policy. l

BOOMING DIGITAL ECONOMY IN POOR COUNTRIES

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ven though digital multinational enterprises – Internet and e-commerce platforms such as Uber, Instagram and Facebook – witnessed “dramatic” growth over the past few years, more than 60 of the top 100 such ventures were concentrated in three countries (the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany), leaving much room to grow elsewhere, a new, ground-breaking United Nations report has revealed. According to the World Investment Report 2017: Investment and the Digital Economy, released today by the UN Conference on Trade and Development , only four companies in the top 100 were based developing nations. “The digital economy has important implications for investment, and investment is crucial for digital development,” Mukhisa Kituyi, the Secretary-General of UNCTAD, said . l

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WATER IS ‘CATALYST’ FOR COOPERATION, NOT CONFLICT

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tressing the importance of diplomacy to prevent and resolve trans-boundary disputes over water resources, Secretary-General António Guterres today told the United Nations Security Council that water serves as “a catalyst” for cooperation among nations, even those that are not on good terms. “Water, peace and security are inextricably linked,” said Mr. Guterres during a meeting on preventive diplomacy and trans-boundary waters, which was chaired by Evo Morales, President of Bolivia, which holds the Council’s presidency for the month. “I commend this Security Council meeting for highlighting how water is and should remain a reason for cooperation not conflict,” Mr. Guterres added. With climate change having a growing impact, water scarcity is a growing concern, he pointed out, noting that by 2050 at least one in four people will live in a country where the lack of fresh water is chronic or recurrent. l

FROM THE EDITOR'S DESK

P SRIRAJESH, Editor

BEYOND

COOPERATION

TECHNO- ECONOMIC

Unfortunately both euphoria as well as criticism of Modi’s visit to Israel has been on a negative count in our country. Israel is conceived as an anti-Muslim country which has been very harsh on Palestinians and their militant supporters.

rime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel raised needless hype and unwarranted criticism. No doubt it was the first ever visit of an Indian Prime Minister to this tiny West Asian country but it was nothing like a world shaking event parallel to U.S. President Richard Nixon to China in 1972 which changed the face of world politics. Little was realized that now after more than 70 years of the end of Second World War Israel is a reality and most West Asian countries have reconciled to it. Therefore it is now pointless to go back to the background of its creation after the victory of Allied Powers and question its legitimacy. Though the tension in West Asia persists and some West Asian powers like Iran still consider Israel as its sworn enemy the situation is not as grim as it was in 1950s and 60s which was threatening a Super Power confrontation.

Whatever may be said about Israel there is no doubt that it is a highly advanced and extremely well administered country. In fact it is a replica of Europe in a backward and volatile region of Asia. Though tiny in size (22,072 sq km area and 8.7 million populations) its technological advancement in many areas is superior to most of the big and developed countries in Asia and Africa. Therefore, nobody should object if we want to benefit from our ties with Israel in areas like sprinkler irrigation and water sea desiltation to name a few. It is therefore, pointless to question the wisdom of our Prime Minister's visit there and the level of relations his government wants to have with Israel.

Unfortunately both euphoria as well as criticism of Modi’s visit to Israel has been on a negative count in our country. Israel is conceived as an anti-Muslim country which has been very harsh on Palestinians and their militant supporters. This gladdens the hearts of communal forces who are anti-Muslims. Similarly Muslims and old style ideologues opposed to the U.S. Jewish lobby consider it an illegitimate child of Western imperialism.

However, much water has flown down the Suez Canal.

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We live in a new world and to survive in it we need a new thought framework. Realities of this new world demand a different role from us. Techno-economic cooperation with Israel is not enough. We have a long and warm relationship with most Muslim nations of West Asia. We should now, as a big world power, try to bring about peace between Israel and West Asian countries antagonist to it. This is a role none is more qualified than us to play. But to be an effective peace negotiator in West Asia we have to first sort out our differences with Pakistan and China. These differences also have their roots in British Imperialism. In fact peace in Asia –South or West depends on who far we succeed in fighting the remnants of our colonial legacy.

However, there is no cause for despair. The 70 years since the culmination of the Second World War is not too much a time to undo the wrongs of colonial rule of centuries in Asia. l

Whatsapp your views with your name and topic to +91 8178 10 7120

srirajesh.journalist

@srirajesh

editor@cultcurrent.com

13 |JULY-2017|

THE IDEA OF CREATING A NEW UNIVERSE IN THE LAB IS NO JOKE BY : Zeeya Merali

P

hysicists aren’t often reprimanded for using risqué humour in their academic writings, but in 1991 that is exactly what happened to the cosmologist Andrei Linde at Stanford University. He had submitted a draft article entitled ‘Hard Art of the Universe Creation’ to the journal Nuclear Physics B. In it, he outlined the possibility of creating a universe in a laboratory: a whole new cosmos that might one day evolve its own stars, planets and intelligent life. Near the end, Linde made a seemingly flippant suggestion that our Universe itself might have been knocked together by an alien ‘physicist hacker’. The paper’s referees objected to this ‘dirty joke’; religious people might be offended that scientists were aiming to steal the feat of universe-making out of the hands of God, they worried. Linde changed the paper’s title and abstract but held firm over the line that our Universe could have been made by an alien scientist. ‘I am not so sure that this is just a joke,’ he told me. Fast-forward a quarter of a century, and the notion of universe-making – or ‘cosmogenesis’ as I dub it – seems less comical than ever. I’ve travelled the world talking to physicists who take the concept seriously, and who have even sketched out rough blueprints for how humanity might one day achieve it. Linde’s referees might have been right to be con-

14 |JULY-2017|

cerned, but they were asking the wrong questions. The issue is not who might be offended by cosmogenesis, but what would happen if it were truly possible. How would we handle the theological implications? What moral responsibilities would come with fallible humans taking on the role of cosmic creators?

Theoretical physicists have grappled for years with related questions as part of their considerations of how our own Universe began. In the 1980s, the cosmologist Alex Vilenkin at Tufts University in Massachusetts came up with a mechanism through which the laws of quantum mechanics could have generated an inflating universe from a state in which there was no time, no space and no matter. There’s an established principle in quantum theory that pairs of particles can spontaneously, momentarily pop out of empty space. Vilenkin took this notion a step further, arguing that quantum rules could also enable a minuscule bubble of space itself to burst into being from nothing, with the impetus to then inflate to astronomical scales. Our cosmos could thus have been burped into being by the laws of physics alone. To Vilenkin, this result put an end to the question of what came before the Big Bang: nothing.

Many cosmologists have made peace with the notion of a universe without a prime mover, divine or other-

wise.

At the other end of the philosophical spectrum, I met with Don Page, a physicist and evangelical Christian at the University of Alberta in Canada, noted for his early collaboration with Stephen Hawking on the nature of black holes. To Page, the salient point is that God created the Universe ex nihilo – from absolutely nothing. The kind of cosmogenesis envisioned by Linde, in contrast, would require physicists to cook up their cosmos in a highly technical laboratory, using a far more powerful cousin of the Large Hadron Collider near Geneva. It would also require a seed particle called a ‘monopole’ (which is hypothesised to exist by some models of physics, but has yet to be found). The idea goes that if we could impart enough energy to a monopole, it will start to inflate. Rather than growing in size within our Universe, the expanding monopole would bend spacetime within the accelerator to create a tiny wormhole tunnel leading to a separate region of space. From within our lab we would see only the mouth of the wormhole; it would appear to us as a mini black hole, so small as to be utterly harmless. But if we could travel into that wormhole, we would pass through a gateway into a rapidly expanding baby universe that we had created. (A video illustrating this process provides some further details.)

We have no reason to believe that even the most advanced physics hackers could conjure a cosmos from nothing at all, Page argues. Linde’s concept of cosmogenesis, audacious as it might be, is still fundamentally technological. Page, therefore, sees little threat to his faith. On this first issue, then, cosmogenesis would not necessarily upset existing theological views.

But flipping the problem around, I started to wonder: what are the implications of humans even considering the

possibility of one day making a universe that could become inhabited by intelligent life? As I discuss in my book A Big Bang in a Little Room (2017), current theory suggests that, once we have created a new universe, we would have little ability to control its evolution or the potential suffering of any of its residents. Wouldn’t that make us irresponsible and reckless deities? I posed the question to Eduardo Guendelman, a physicist at Ben Gurion University in Israel, who was one of the architects of the cosmogenesis model back in the 1980s.

Today, Guendelman is engaged in research that could bring baby-universe-making within practical grasp. I was surprised to find that the moral issues did not cause him any discomfort.

Guendelman likens scientists pondering their responsibility over making a baby universe to parents deciding whether or not to have children, knowing they will inevitably introduce them to a life filled with pain as well as joy.

Looking back on my numerous conversations with scientists and philosophers on these issues, I’ve concluded that the editors at Nuclear Physics B did a disservice both to physics and to theology. Their little act of censorship served only to stifle an important discussion. The real danger lies in fostering an air of hostility between the two sides, leaving scientists afraid to speak honestly about the religious and ethical consequences of their work out of concerns of professional reprisal or ridicule.

We will not be creating baby universes anytime soon, but scientists in all areas of research must feel able to freely articulate the implications of their work without concern for causing offence. Cosmogenesis is an extreme example that tests the principle. Parallel ethical issues are at stake in the more near-term prospects of creating artificial intelligence or developing new kinds of weapons, for instance. As Sandberg put it, although it is understandable that scientists shy away from philosophy, afraid of being thought weird for veering beyond their comfort zone, the unwanted result is that many of them keep quiet on things that really matter.

As I was leaving Linde’s office at Stanford, after we’d spent a day riffing on the nature of God, the cosmos and baby universes, he pointed at my notes and commented ruefully: ‘If you want to have my reputation destroyed, I guess you have enough material.’ This sentiment was echoed by a number of the scientists I had met, whether they identified as atheists, agnostics, religious or none of the above. The irony was that if they felt able to share their thoughts with each other as openly as they had with me, they would know that they weren’t alone among their colleagues in pondering some of the biggest questions of our being.

(Zeeya Merali is a freelance science writer and author of A Big Bang in a Little Room: The Quest to Create New Universes. )

15 |JULY-2017|

BANGLADESH

THE STAGGERING COSTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE

DEMAND TO REMOVE SPECIAL PROVISION FROM CHILD MARRIAGE LAW 16 |JUNE-2017|

A

BY : Hal Brands

fter all, A World Bank report published that revealed some predictable, but still disturbing numbers about the cost of child marriages in developing nations. The report, titled "Economic Impacts of Child Marriage: Global Synthesis Report" highlighted the staggering economic cost of child-marriages, adding to the already established social costs that we are familiar with. The report, through analysis of data of 25 developing countries, Bangladesh included, found that child marriage will cost these countries trillions of dollars in the next decade. On the other hand, if child marriage were ended, fertility rates would drop in the worst affected countries. In economic terms, this would translate to gains of over USD 500 billion annually by 2030. This is on top of the "large positive effect" this would mean in terms of education of girls and their children. The report also found that our lofty goal of ending world poverty is hampered too due to this social evil.Coming back to Bangladesh, the report cites that almost 60 percent of the country's age-group between 18 to 22 got married before they were 18. Despite our efforts of curbing and criminalising child marriages, the practice continues. Here, we must point out yet again that the special provision to allow child marriages under special circumstances that has been added to the Child Marriage Restraint Act could undo the limited progress we had made to protect the rights of girls in this country, and give such marriages a legal sanction. We urge the authorities once again to reconsider the amendment that was

made, and realise that without a strong stance to oppose child marriage, these girls will continue to be forced into such marriages. If the human rights and moral considerations were not enough, the WB report shows that ending this practice is also the "economically smart thing to do". l

17 |JULY-2017|

DIPLOMACY

GLOBAL LEADERSHIP

USA STEPS BACK INDIA STEPS AHEAD 18 |JULY-2017|

BY : ALYSSA AYRES

A

s prime minister Narendra Modi arrives in Washington for his first meeting with President Donald Trump, he will find an America rethinking its global leadership role, looking more inward as it scopes its sights down to America First. It’s a strange moment for the world, as New Delhi has long bet on closer ties with a United States confident of its traditional outwardlooking posture. While much has been written about China’s willingness to step into the global leadership gap vacated by Trump’s foreign policy, India’s quiet commitment to becoming a “leading power” also deserves attention.

In a nutshell, even as the world’s oldest democracy steps back from the global stage, the world’s largest democracy is stepping up. India has been among the few areas of bipartisan consensus in US foreign policy. Over the past twenty years, Democratic and Republican governments alike have worked to expand ties with New Delhi.

India has at times been a reluctant partner, sceptical of the American embrace, both due to past differences as well as its tradition of eschewing formal alignment with a superpower.When former prime minister Manmohan Singh partnered with former presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama to find a place for India—a country outside the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, but with advanced nuclear weapons technology—inside the global nonproliferation tent, New Delhi began a new chapter in its ties with Washington as well as its its ambitions to claim India’s “due place in global councils,” as Singh described it.

Prime minister Modi then doubled India’s bet on the benefits of strong US-India ties. Modi and Obama together crafted a new landscape for Indo-American partnership through a “joint strategic vision” for cooperation across the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean. Former US Secretaries of Defense Leon Panetta and Ashton Carter repeatedly encouraged India to become a “net provider of security” in the region. Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton encouraged India not just to “look east” but to “act east” as well.

Obama supported a permanent seat for India in a reformed UN Security Council, and worked with Modi to secure a global agreement on climate at the Paris Conference of Parties in 2015. India, for its own strategic reasons which converged with those of the United States, adopted a more active role in all of these areas. As president, Trump has already changed the US role in the world. Our country, long a champion of global trade—indeed, a point of friction in

Modi and Obama together crafted a new landscape for Indo-American partnership through a “joint strategic vision” for cooperation across the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean.

US-India economic ties, where Washington often pushes New Delhi to open further—has under Trump ditched the Trans-Pacific Partnership and looked to the possibility of protectionist retaliatory measures.“Globalization” has become less a statement of fact in the Trump era than a term of criticism. On security, whether the United States will remain the active superpower providing security across the Asia Pacific is less clear today than it was six months ago. And on climate, Trump has announced that the United States will exit the Paris Climate Agreement, full stop.

Meanwhile, in India a new narrative has emerged about the country’s place in the world. Modi has pressed to become a “leading power,” not just a “balancing power.” India has declared its ambition of primacy in the Indian Ocean, announced its first overseas military base in the Seychelles, and publicly championed freedom of navigation throughout the Asia Pacific, including in the South China Sea. On climate, India has become one of the world’s most active advocates for renewable energy—a major part of its Paris commitment.In a role reversal from two years back, just as Trump pulled the US out of the Paris accord, Modi stood with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to declare India’s continued support for it. And at a time when the US government has adopted a suspicious view of globalization, India’s chief economic advisor is speaking of New Delhi cobbling together a “middle-income country coalition” to revive it.

Take this all in. A country that was once a byword for protectionism now stands ready to defend the benefits of global trade to a Washington grown wary of it. An India once solely focused on its land borders has developed a more expeditionary mindset. An India that for years pushed back against the terms of a global climate deal advanced by Obama has now stepped up loudly in its defense.It’s a complete role reversal. But Washington should welcome New Delhi’s willingness to step up. When the US returns to its traditional leadership role, India will be an important partner.l (Alyssa Ayres is Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. Her book about India’s rise, Our Time Has Come: How India is Making Its Place in the World, is forthcoming from Oxford University Press.)

19 |JULY-2017|

SPECIAL STORY: JAPAN

BEIJING'S DILEMMA

HOW TO WIN YOUNG HEARTS OF HONG KONG 20 |JULY-2017|

Those who grew up in the Chinese school system are taught from an early age that the loss of Hong Kong in the 1840s was a moment of national humiliation and that taking it back from Britain 150 years later is correspondingly a moment of national pride. This Hong Kong story is a crucial part of Mr Xi's political message at home, a centrepiece of his "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation".

BY : CARRIE GRACIE

H

ong Kong marks 20 years since its return from the UK to China but Lai Chun-yin is not celebrating. He is lying on his back on the pavement, spinning a football in the air. Between his stunt and the iconic Hong Kong harbour skyline stand a handful of mesmerised tourists.

Chun-yin is a 20-year-old coffee shop barista and freestyle footballer, supplementing his earnings by busking his ball skills on the street. "I don't have much sense of belonging to China," he says. "I love Hong Kong and feel like a Hong Konger. My generation just don't have a good impression of China."

His assessment of the mood among young Hong Kongers was borne out by a survey this month suggesting the number choosing to identify as "broadly Chinese" has declined to new lows in the three years since student democracy protestors occupied the heart of the city during the so-called Umbrella Movement. On a warehouse rooftop 21 floors up in a packed district of Kowloon, art student Prince

Wong is putting the finishing touches to a wordless statement in graffiti about her sentiments on the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China.

Instead of painting the Hong Kong flag in its familiar colours of white flower on red background, she is spraying the background black to symbolise mourning. Only a few hours later, on the eve of President Xi Jinping's visit, Prince was arrested for clambering onto a monument which was the 1997 handover gift from China to Hong Kong. At 20, Prince is a veteran protester. Her awakening came at the age of 15, watching pupils demonstrate against a patriotic curriculum on Chinese history which the local government tried to introduce in Hong Kong's schools.

Two years later, she was at the heart of the 79-day Umbrella Movement, mounting a week-long hunger strike to demand democracy. Now she runs workshops in schools to politicise the generation coming up behind. But Prince is no longer optimistic about what protest can achieve. "We still bear the scars of the Umbrella Movement," she says. "We did our utmost and we lost. Before we hoped to move forward, now we're just trying to avoid moving backwards." Prince is a symptom of the difficulty Mr Xi faces in connecting with Hong Kong's post-handover generation.

She suspects his intentions and despises his values."If you want people to love your country, it depends on what you do," she explains. "If your country treats your people well, then your citizens will sure love your country, right? We hate the government because they do bad things. We don't hate it for nothing."

In my - admittedly limited - experience this week, the only 20year-olds in Hong Kong who are reliably celebrating Mr Xi's visit and the 20th anniversary of the handover are the mainlanders.

Those who grew up in the Chinese school system are taught from an early age that the loss of Hong Kong in the 1840s was a moment of national humiliation and that taking it back from Britain 150 years later is correspondingly a moment of national pride. This Hong Kong story is a crucial part of Mr Xi's political message at home, a centrepiece of his "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation".Sunny Tan from Hunan Province in central China is enthusiastic. An economics student at Hong Kong University, Sunny has a summer internship at a big Chinese state bank and when we meet in the busy shopping area of Causeway Bay, she is wearing a sober business suit.In common with Chun-yin and Prince, she is a 20-year old Chinese national living in Hong Kong.

But unlike them she went to school on the Chinese mainland, believes the history she was taught there and is celebrating the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong's handover."I see the handover as a sign of an increasingly powerful China," she says. "I am a patriot and I think we should love our country.""Young people here just want to achieve a high level of democracy at high speed, they want to do it overnight. But they should understand the realities."

University campuses are a natural battlefield in this war of ideas. In his office overlooking Hong Kong bay with the hills of

21 |JULY-2017|

SPECIAL STORY: JAPAN

mainland China stretching away on the horizon, the vice chancellor of Hong Kong University, Peter Mathieson, tells me that "the three and a half years I've been in post have been among the most tumultuous in Hong Kong's history".

Some of his local students have moved from demanding democracy in the Umbrella Movement three years ago to calling for self-determination or even independence today, claiming that separation from China may be the only way of realising their goals.Such ideas are anathema to Beijing and, on the mainland, Mr Xi has subjected university campuses to ever stricter political indoctrination, but Peter Mathieson says that however unrealistic independence may be for Hong Kong, university campuses should be places where people are permitted to think the unthinkable."I think the calls for independence are a symptom, not a disease," he explains."The actual number of my students who really believe in independence is quite small but they're anxious about the future. So people want self-determination, anxious about the alternative - which is greater and greater integration with China."After a long career in the Hong Kong civil service spanning the decades before and after the handover, Rachel Cartland takes the long view. She first arrived here from Britain 45 years ago at the age of 22, herself fresh from university.After watching many politicians come and go, and following the twists and turns of Hong Kong's democracy movement, she is hopeful about the values and the talent of some of the young leaders now emerging."I think if they can keep their heads, avoid going to prison as far as they

possibly can and think about how to appeal not just to the young hotheads like themselves but also to the more mainstream Hong

22 |JUNE-2017|

Kongers," she says. "I think Hong Kong could have a pretty bright future." "Personally I have enormous faith in the people of Hong Kong. I think it will take a very great deal to make them look more like mainland China is today."For some young Hong Kongers the vision of a bright future is less about politics than economics. Ann Tsang is 33 years old, single and saving for an apartment. She and her 30-year-old brother both live with their parents. She says that is completely normal in Hong Kong, but driving discontent. "You don't eat, you don't go out, you don't have a social life, just to buy a house and you have a mortgage of 30 to 40 years.

Basically you live like a slave for your house." Ann and I are standing on a busy street, staring at the apartments on offer in the window of an estate agent.A space little bigger than a living room elsewhere in the world costs more than US$1m (ÂŁ770,000) here.Hong Kong is now the world's most unequal city after New York. Ann Tsang is not a political protester, but she would like the politicians to tackle the housing crisis."Youngsters get really agitated and frustrated.

They don't know what their future is," says local writer Jason Ng.On a hot Hong Kong tram rattling through this densely

packed human hive, he remarks that this is not the tour the Chinese president will get.

"He will be taken on a North Korean-style highly controlled tour where he will only see the best side of Hong Kong. He will not see pain and suffering or protesters."

Jason Ng argues that this lack of connection with ordinary people has caused Chinese leaders to misdiagnose the problem in their relationship with Hong Kong."As far as Beijing is concerned the root cause of a lot of the ungovernability of Hong Kong is because young people don't have the sense that they are part of China. And the best way to get at that is to inculcate an idea of patriotism at an early age. To Beijing that is the ultimate solution. But you can't force peole to love you." The writer says if by some miracle he got a chance to speak to the Chinese president during the celebrations to mark the 20th anniversary of the handover, his message would be blunt."If you want to govern Hong Kong there's one very simple answer. Leave us alone. That's all we want. We are not interested in ending one-party rule in China. We just want our way of life. So de-escalate. Don't push us because when you push us, we push back." l

23 |JULY-2017|

COVER STORY

24 |JULY-2017|

MODI’S GRAPH ON DECLINING? BY : Pradeep K Mathur

C

limbing ladders of political power is like walking on a slippery slope. You can never be sure when you can salip and come down. Then climbing any number of steps does not guarantee that that you will retain the height you have gained and you will stay where you are.Prime Minister Narendra Modi is at the peak of his political prime. With BJP in his pocket, an absolute majority and no leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, his party ruling in 16 of the 30 staters in India and President and Vice-President of his choice likely to take office soon Modi is on cloud nine.

Therefore, is there any threat to Modi’s position now or in near future –that is 2019 Lok Sabha elections ?

The answer will be a firm No from most of us. Perhaps only cynics or ideologically committed Modi haters willl not agree. But then politics, like cricket, is a game of glorious uncertainties.

After India’s glorious victory over Pakistan in Bangladesh war which earned Prime Minister Indira Gandhi the title of Durga from opposition leader Atal Beehari Vajpayeee in 1971 who could say Mrs Gandhi’s position will be so very shakey by the middle of 1974 trhat she will have to impose the Emergency to save her job ?

After liberation from the Emergency rule and a resounding Janata Party victory in 1977 who could say that Prime Minister, that too of the stature of Morarji Desai , will have to go out of office by 1979 ?

After an unprecedented Congress victory in the Lok Sabha elections in December 1984 who could say that young Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, heart throb of the youth and IT world would lose all clout by 1977 summers and will be ousted from power by 1989 ? But all this happened and is now an integral part of political history of independent India . Can some such thing happen to primee Minister Modi as well? We have no answers with us.

Only time will tell. Nevertheless we can analyse the situation and leave the rest to voters, time and God Almighty.

Let us begin by asking ourselves a simple question. Is Nraendra Modi as big a craze now as he used to be in 20134-14 when he was campaigning to be the Prime Minister An honest answer from both friends and foes will be an unambiguous NO. So what has happened in the three years since May 2014 that we now want to know if Modi’s graph is declining.

For one BJP’s propaganda machine is so efficient that we are always told that Modi is going great guns. BJP leaders and even workers are excellent orators and they are competent to convince the gullible that everything is fine with their government at the Centre and in the states and whatever is wrong is because of Opposition parties. Besides propaganda machine, their election managers are also very competent and with loads of money in their hands they can manipulate Opposition and win elections. And if they lose elections in a state they can create all sorts of problems for the party that forms government. We have already witnessed in Delhi and Himachal

25 |JULY-2017|

COVER STORY

Pradesh and now we are seeing it in Bihar and West Bengal.

The question is why BJP which always talked of norms and scruples in public life is establishing state governments of other parties.

The answer is BJP sees the present situation as a “ now or never opportunity “ to realise the RSS dream of a Hindu Rashtra.

The paradox of the situation is that Mr Modi’s political fortunes will go down right in proportion to the effort BJP-RSS combine undertakes to realise Hindu Rashtra. Whatever Sangh Parivar camp followers think the fact is that overwhelming number of Indians --Hindus or Muslims—are in no mood of mutual confrontation. They may have reservations against each other as castes and communities have but no desire to harm each other. The lunatic fringe of extremists does not comprise even two per cent of population on either side.

The greater the effort by Hindutva forces to promote more will be the realization among the members of two communities to come to gather and distance themselves from BJP to the Opposition’s advantage. And a united Opposition will any day be able to overwhelm Modi’s BJP as happened in Bihar. If insiders are to be believed Akhlesh Yadav and Mayawati are regretting for not having come together to fight the BJP jointly in the UP Assembly elections earlier this year.

While Opposition’s presidential candidate Meira Kumar may lose the elections the fact that 17 Opposition parties set together to select her is a danger signal for Modi. Nobody should be surprised if arch rivals Trinmool Congres and CPI-M may come together to oppose BJP in West Bengal in the next elections.

But bringing about an Opposition unity by an aggressive style of politics, so far not witnessed in democratic India but for the 18 months of the Emergency rule, is not the only thing that is bringing down Modi’s graph. There is a growing perception that he is not true to his words and what he promises he never delivers. For this Modi has himsself to blame. Nobody ever asked him to make tall claims like bringing black money from Swiss banks in 100 days, Rs 15 lakhs to everyone , showing Pakistan its place , bringing corrupt of the previous regime to justice and create one crore jobs annually. All this has certainly eroded his credibility among the masses.

The increasing prices of items of daily use is further alienating the common man. There is a growing feeling among his educated middle class supporters that data about inflation, foreign investment and economic development being given by government agencies is fudged. Many people who know economics , are saying that Dr Manmohan Singh’s government, though corrupt, managed the economy much better . Lowering of interest rates on bank deposits have hit senior citizens hard. Te steep rise in rail fares is again raising many a eyebrow. It was no doubt necessary but the government failed to sell it to people efficiently.

Modi no doubt has been one of the most popular Prime Ministers in independent India. But he has allowed himself to be surrounded by all sorts of sycophants who are keeping him away from the emerging reality. They also keep telling him that even if some people are not happy they have no alternative and this secures his position.

26 |JULY-2017|

DEMONETIZATION WAS MODI TELLING THE TRUTH?

O

n Nov 8 last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his address to the nation surprised everyone by announcing that the government has decided to ban currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 and they will cease to be legal tender from the midnight. He laid stress on hard work and honesty of an average Indian and said that black money was the biggest roadblock in the development of the country and the culture of honesty, which he was trying to bring in the country. Besides curbing black money, demonetization will also help stop terror funding and fake currency circulation, in the country. The nation believed him and despite suffering untold hardships and great inconvenience in the next

after demonetisation.

4 Destroying the informal economy would also ease the process of land acquisition, as indebted farmers would be forced to sell. Land acquisition for real estate and other development, a long-standing demand of global capital, has been stalled by grassroots movements.

4 Emptying out the cash coffers of rival political parties.

Elections are due in February in several major states. the political process in India has been profoundly corrupted by the loosened financial controls since neoliberal reforms in the 1990s.

two months the average Indian by and large did not protest. But the question is was Modi telling the truth? Or the decision to abolish Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes was taken for some other reasons and what the Prime Minister said was just a cover-up?

It was said in many quarters that besides the three stated objectives of curbing black money, stopping fake currency circulation and waging a war on terror funding, Prime Minister Modi and his friends also had a secret agenda. It was : 4 Recapitalising the public banks, which were staggering under the weight of bad loans to cronies? Soon after the demonetisation, the state banks waived loans to 63 corporations, including Modi’s close friend and ally, Adani. The entire corporate sector is expected to benefit from lowered interest rates as a result of recapitalization.

4

Destroying the informal, cash-based economy of the poor and pushing through retail chains instead. Curiously, the big retail chains were well supplied with cash in their in-store ATMs. They experienced a boom immediately

Another idea that has been put forward is megalomania—Modi wanted to do something dramatic and drastic to push through multiple benefits to his backers, and also pose as a crusader against corruption.

However, nobody talked that time about a bigger conspiracy behind demonetization move. Now increasing evidence is coming of the decisive role that Washington played in the demonetization.

In fact in one of the agreements negotiated by the USAID, the US government’s development agency with the Union Finance ministry had the declared goal to push back the use of cash in favor of digital payments in India.

Then nearly four weeks before the declaration of demonetization, USAID had on October 14 announced the establishment of, Catalyst: Inclusive Cashless Payment Partnership, with the goal of effecting a quantum leap in cashless payment in India. However, after the strong opposition of demonetization in India and abroad the announcement release has been removed from the USAID website.

It is obvious that under Arun Jaitley’s Finance Ministry was preparing the ground for demonetization for quite some time to serve their vested interests in India and America.

Ambassador Jonathan Addleton, USAID Mission Director to India, had said four weeks earlier that: India is at the forefront of global efforts to digitize economies and create new economic opportunities that extend to hard-to-reach populations. Catalyst will support these efforts by focusing on the challenge of making everyday purchases cashless.

It is interesting to know as to who all were behind this decisive attack on cash and what was their objective? In fact more than 35 key Indian, American and international organizations partnered with the Ministry of Finance and USAID on the demonetization initiative. These are mostly IT- and payment service providers who want to make money from digital payments or from the associated data generation on users. These include the Better than Cash Alliance (BTCA), the Gates Foundation (Microsoft), Omidyar Network (eBay), the Dell Foundation Mastercard, Visa, Metlife Foundation.

Obviously Mr Modi did not tell the truth behind the decision to demonetize nearly 85 per cent of the country’s currency which disrupted the economy of the country and the social life of its

27 |JULY-2017|

FALLING IN LINE

COVER STORY

India’s raucous democracy is becoming more subdued Narendra Modi’s government is extremely sensitive to criticism masses.

l

T

he candidate that India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has put forward for the largely ceremonial post of president looks like a canny choice: Ram Nath Kovind, a longtime devotee of a Hindu group allied with the party, but also a dalit—the bottom rung in India’s caste system. He should appeal both to the party’s religiously motivated base, but also to other dalits, who make up close to 20% of the population. Given the strength of the BJP and its allies in Parliament, which elects the president, his ascent is all but assured.

The BJP is always looking for ways to shore up its support, but not all of them are so positive. When Mr Kovind’s nomination was announced, Rana Ayyub, a journalist critical of the party, lambasted the choice on Twitter. It took a spokesman for the party less than eight hours to file a complaint with the police, claiming that she was stirring up hatred on the basis of caste— an offence in India—even though the tweet had made no mention of caste.

Under the leadership of Narendra Modi, the prime minister, the BJP has won a string of impressive electoral victories, a t

both the national and state level. The opposition is in disarray; another BJP triumph seems likely in 2019.

Yet the BJP is extremely sensitive to criticism.

Mr Modi has a very easy time with the press.

India’s big media conglomerates are either owned by fans of the BJP, or else reliant on the government’s favour. There are few legal limits and little oversight of government spending on advertising. Mr Modi’s image is everywhere: on giant billboards trumpeting new roads and bridges, in full-page newspaper spreads for BJP election campaigns, in television spots touting myriad government programmes.

During the first week of June, state-sponsored projects accounted for three of the top five brands advertised on television, amounting to some 30,000 “insertions”. The risk of losing such revenue hangs heavily over editorial decisions.

Checks and imbalances It is not only the media that are largely tame.

Agencies such as India’s Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), the Enforcement Directorate of the finance ministry, the tax authorities and even local police forces are often accused of doing the government’s bidding. Since the upstart Aam Aadmi Party won control of the local assembly in Delhi, India’s capital, from the BJP in 2015, its leaders have been hit by a barrage of investigations. Their impressive reforms to health and education have won widespread praise, but Delhi’s government has trouble filling administrative posts because career bureaucrats refuse its vacancies for fear of harassment. Not surprisingly, the BJP trounced Aam Aadmi in municipal polls in Delhi earlier this year, as voters abandoned the upstart in favour of a party that faces less resistance in getting things done.

In early June the CBI raided properties belonging to the owners of NDTV, a television channel that tries to give equal airtime to the government and its crit-

|JULY-2017|

ics (and whose boss is a distant relative of a senior editor at The Economist).

The agency said it was investigating an old loan that the channel had taken out nine years ago. It was repaid within months and the bank had no complaint, but the gumshoes insist that the bank should have earned more interest. To many observers it does not seem coincidental that only days before the raid, an NDTV presenter had engaged in a testy exchange with a spokesman for the BJP, who accused the channel of pursuing an antigovernment agenda.

NDTV faces a separate investigation by the Enforcement Directorate.

A decade ago GE, a giant multinational, bought a $150m stake in a new venture with the channel. The project was not a success and GE, in the wake of the global financial crisis, bailed out with a significant loss. India’s financial watchdog sees this business failure as a case of international money laundering. It intends to press criminal charges.

Law-enforcement agencies have not shown similar zeal against friends of the government, or against Hindu-nationalist vigilantes who have, in recent months, shown increasing boldness in enforcing their agenda. Their victims usually happen to be from India’s 14% Muslim minority, whether these are cattle-traders beaten up—and in one recent case, killed—by selfappointed protectors of the sacred cow, or cricket enthusiasts cheering the wrong team. Following India’s loss to Pakistan in an international match on June 18th, 21 men were denounced by neighbours for celebrating.

They have been charged under India’s colonialsedition laws, and remanded in custody.l

Whether Modi stays beyond 2019 or goes out of office will as much be decided by RSS as by the electorate. Voices being raised in the Sangh Parivar against Modi are clearly audible.

Given a narcissist bent of mind Modi readily believes thinking himself to be the greatest thing that has happened to India’s politics after Indeependence.Incidentally he is the only Prime Minister who has not held a press conference even after three years in office.

For public consumption Modi may talk of consensus but he has no faith in it. On as important a decision as demonetization he reportedly did not consult even his political favourite and Finance Minister Arun Jaitely . Now everybody but Modi knows that demonetization was a big disaster and it has put back clock of our economic development at least by a year.

Whether Modi stays beyond 2019 or goes out of office will as much be decided by RSS as by the electorate. Voices being raised in the Sangh Parivar against Modi are clearly audible. Swadeshi Jagaran Munch has been opposing foreign investment being proposed by the government and Bhartiya Mazdoor Sangh( BMS) is all set to lead a movement against its “ oppressive labour policies “. If insiders are to be believed the core leadership of RSS is also not happy with the haughty style of Modi and they have already started considering other options.

Whatever happens between now and 2019 when the country is scheduled to go for the elections is difficult to say now. But those who in favour of Modi say that the 2019 elections results is a foregone conclusion may have to eat their words. Who was the British Prime Minister who said that one week is a long time in politics. l

Brazil's

DRIVE

Battle Against Corruption BY : Moises Costa

I

n the late 1980s, Brazilians paid no small price for establishing democracy after a series of military dictatorships. Diretas Já! (Direct Elections, Now!), a civil unrest movement active between 1983 and 1984 that called for direct presidential elections and involved a broad spectrum of society, is probably the most emblematic episode of Brazil’s long fight for democracy. And now it has been resurrected as a new group of protesters demands direct elections to replace the current president, Michel Temer. In May of this year, Temer was accused of allegedly obstructing justice in a corruption investigation that had him as a possible suspect. The problem is that even if the accusations turn out to be true, the Brazilian constitution only allows for indirect elections to fill the presidency at this point, and only temporarily until the next regular elections happen at the end of 2018. Direct elections now, in other words, would be unconstitutional.

Temer was elected as the vice president to Dilma Rousseff in 2010. Rousseff was impeached at the end of 2016, making it possible for Temer to take over her seat as dictated by the Brazilian constitution. He likely would never have reached the presidency through a popular vote—one reason that the protestors demand elections now. Temer’s party, the PMDB (Brazilian Democratic Movement Party), is a centrist catchall party with the largest number of seats in congress but with no strong names to run for the presidency. This is why it made sense for Rousseff to align her leftist Workers’ Party (PT) with Temer’s, thus combining the popular appeal of the PT with the capillarity of the PMDB. But democracy always involves compromises, and what makes people embrace its bargaining game is the assurance of predictable rules that survive despite differences of opinion. That is what the population wanted when they called for the end of military rule just over three decades ago. It is thus misguided to want to change the rules of the game now.

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PAKISTAN

BY : UMAR BACHA partment has increased exponentially. Rasheeda Mustafa, who has been teaching Mandarin at NUML for the past 19 years, says, “Thousands of students have learnt Mandarin [at NUML] and have went on to pursue professional roles in different fields.”

Perhaps to match this increasing demand, the Chinese government had contributed towards the expansion of the Confucius Institute at NUML back in 2015. "This centre will contribute towards cementing Pak-China relations," Zhang Daojian, a lecturer at the institute, had told at that point.

The institute has continued to attract a higher number of students since, Mustafa says. Enrolment has nearly doubled in recent years. This year, 460 students have been admitted into the programme, 300 in the morning and 160 in the evening. Activities at the Confucius Institute go beyond learning Chinese; the department hosts a number of cultural events including a Chinese Lantern Festival and

A

white statue of Chinese philosopher Confucius stands tall in Pakistan's federal capital.

Behind it is the impressive building of the Confucius Institute, Islamabad — the rebranded Chinese language department at the National University of Modern Languages (NUML).

This programme, like several other Confucius Institutes around the globe, was set up to promote Chinese language and culture. It was founded with support from the Office of Chinese Language Council International (Hanban), and Beijing Language and Culture University in April 2005.

NUML's Chinese language department, however, has been around for nearly half a century. When it was first formed in September 1970, there were only about 13 students who took the course. Over the years, interest in the de-

MORE PAKISTANI STUDENTS LEARNING CHINESE TODAY THAN BEFORE

NUML'S CHINESE LANGUAGE DEPARTMENT HAD 13 STUDENTS WHEN IT STARTED IN 1970. THIS YEAR THE PROGRAMME HAS 460 PUPILS.

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'Monkey year'. In 2010, the institute also launched two Chinese-language radio stations which broadcast in Islamabad (FM 104.6) and Lahore (FM 95). Daojian says that Pakistani students are very sharp and learn Mandarin in a short amount of time. “Mandarin is not difficult for those who want to learn it,” he says.Speaking of the increasing strength of the classrooms he says, “The number of students is increasing with the passage of time because of Chinese job opportunities… There were two sections of the certification [in the past], now there are 10.”Mustafa says the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a big factor for this. She says that students can see the tides changing and expect that knowing Chinese would mean more job opportunities, in Pakistan and in China.

This is reflected in many students’ responses when asked about their interest in learning the language. Marya Kamran, a student from Rawalpindi, says that while she is interested in learning different languages, “choosing Mandarin is aimed at starting my own import and export business”.Learning Chinese has certainly helped alumni acquire jobs in the past. Zeeshan Mehmood, alum of NUML’s Chinese department, says that after finishing his Chinese language course in 2014, he got employed as a translator in a Chinese construction company working with Pakistan.The institute clearly recognises this. A few years ago it started offering a short-term course focused

on ‘Business Chinese’ language. The curriculum focuses not only on the language, but also basic etiquettes that students may need when conducting business in China. The course also has books like ABC Business Negotiation.But not all students have aspirations of conducting business in China. Mustafa says that students are also showing more interest in Chinese because after learning the language they go to pursue Master of Philosophy (MPhil) degrees in China.

Mahnoor Shermeen, one of the 149 women studying Mandarin at NUML, hopes of going to China for higher studies. She adds that after taking Chinese classes, students appear for a standardised Chinese proficiency test called HSK. The test is administered by the Confucius Institute Headquarters in Beijing, China.

HSK consists of six levels; after passing four students become eligible to apply for scholarships in China, Shermeen says. The increased interest in learning Chinese not only means that more students from around Pakistan are enlisting in NUML, it has also resulted in Confucius Institutes opening in different parts of the country. Right now there are four operational institutes.

There is one each in Islamabad (NUML), Faisalabad (Agriculture University), Lahore (Punjab University) and Karachi (University of Karachi). Another institute is under construction in Gilgit. l

33 |JULY-2017|

ISRAEL

ISRAEL’S SECRET PLAN TO THROW OUT AFRICAN REFUGEES BY : Andrew Green The man picked Afie Semene and the 11 other Eritreans on the flight from Tel Aviv out of the stream of disembarking passengers as if he already had their faces memorized. He welcomed them to the Rwandan capital, Kigali, and introduced himself as John.

He was a Rwandan immigration officer, he explained, there to help smooth their arrival. He collected the travel documents each of them had been issued in Israel and led them past the immigration counter where the rest of the passengers from their flight queued. Nobody stopped them. Nothing was stamped.

They paused briefly at the luggage carousel to scoop up their bags. In the nearly seven years Semene had lived in Israel, he filled an apartment with furniture and kitchen supplies. But when officials there summoned him to a detention facility for asylumseekers, he had distributed much of what he owned among his friends, unsure if he would ever return. Now his suitcase contained little besides clothes.

The group exited the airport into the humid Rwandan night and crowded into a waiting pickup. The luggage followed in a second truck. The small convoy wound its way through lush, hilly Kigali, past the fenced campus of the regional polytechnic, and into a quiet neighborhood several miles south of the airport.

They came to a stop in front of a house the color of a pistachio nut, its second story ringed with white-trimmed porches. Dawn was already breaking as the new arrivals were shown to bed-

rooms inside. As he fell asleep, Semene still remembers the feeling of relief wash over him. John would return the next day to help them begin their asylum applications, he thought. Maybe he would arrive with the papers granting them refugee status already in hand.

Instead, the next day brought new despair: There would be no visas. No work permits. No asylum. None of the things Israeli authorities had promised the 12 Eritreans when they had agreed to relocate to Rwanda a few weeks prior. Instead, John offered to smuggle them into neighboring Uganda, which he told them was a “free nation.”

“If you live here, you can’t leave,” Semene recalled John saying of Rwanda. “It’s a tight country. Let me advise you, as your brother, you need to go to Uganda.”

They would need to sneak across the border, since they had no proof of legal entry into Rwanda. (The Israeli laissez-passers had gone unstamped at the Kigali airport the night before, an oversight that now felt suspicious.)

But John told them not to worry; he could easily get them into Uganda for a fee of $250. “I have everything,” he said.

“Contacts with the government over there. Contacts with the Israeli government. If something happens, I call the Israeli government and they do something for you.”

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Israel welcomed refugees from outside the Jewish faith. The country was an early signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention.

In his first official act as prime minister in 1977, Menachem Begin granted refuge to 66 Vietnamese who had been rescued at sea by an Israeli ship.

The alternative, John said, was to remain in the Kigali house, where they would be under constant surveillance.

They would have to pay rent, but without documentation, they would not be allowed to work. Semene and the others understood that John was not really giving them a choice. Everyone agreed to the plan.

A few hours later, a van pulled up outside the house and the Eritreans piled in. Several miles from the border with Uganda, the vehicle came to a stop and John urged them out onto the side of the road. It was the last they would see of him.

Semene had made an even more treacherous crossing once before, paying smugglers to ferry him across the Sinai Desert from Egypt into Israel. Under fire from Egyptian border guards, he sprinted the final yards to safety. He had hoped it would be the last time he would ever have to cross a border illegally. But seven years later, feeling betrayed by an Israeli government he had once turned to for safety, he slipped quietly and unofficially into Uganda.

For decades after its founding in 1948, Israel welcomed refugees from outside the Jewish faith. The country was an early signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention. In his first official act as prime minister in 1977, Menachem Begin granted refuge to 66 Vietnamese who had been rescued at sea by an Israeli ship. During a visit to the United States later that year, he recalled the St. Louis — a ship loaded with more than 900 European Jews who attempted to flee Germany in 1939 — to explain his decision. The St. Louis’s passengers were denied permission to disembark in Cuba, the United States, and Canada and ultimately returned to Europe. A quarter of the passengers are thought to have died in the Holocaust.

“They were nine months at sea, traveling from harbor to harbor, from country to country, crying out for refuge.

They were refused,” Begin said. “We have never forgotten the lot of our people … And therefore it was natural that my first act as prime minister was to give those people a

haven in the land of Israel.”

In 2007, then-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert echoed Begin’s act when he granted temporary residency permits to nearly 500 Sudanese asylum-seekers. But as the number of African migrants swelled in subsequent years, Israel’s receptiveness began to flag. The vast majority of the new arrivals were fleeing long-standing authoritarian regimes in Eritrea and Sudan. They chose Israel for many reasons: because it was a democracy, because it was easier to reach than Europe or — for many Sudanese — because it was an adversary of their own government. They hoped that the enemy of their enemy would look kindly on them.

But Israeli authorities soon became overwhelmed. According to the Ministry of Interior, nearly 65,000 foreign nationals — the vast majority from Africa — reached Israel between 2006 and 2013. As the government struggled to accommodate the newcomers, many languished in poor and overcrowded neighborhoods in southern Tel Aviv.

Dozens squatted in a park across the street from the city’s main bus station for weeks on end. A handful of high-profile incidents — including the alleged rape of an 83-yearold woman by an Eritrean asylum-seeker in 2012 —

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dominated media coverage and fueled unease among Israelis, many of whom already fretted that refugees were taking their jobs.

By the time Benjamin Netanyahu secured a third term as prime minister in 2013, the tensions had hardened into outright hostility. That year, Israel sealed off its border with Egypt and implemented a raft of policies aimed at making life more difficult for asylum-seekers already in Israel. Then it began secretly pressuring Eritreans and Sudanese to leave for unnamed third countries, a shadowy relocation effort in which Semene and thousands like him are now ensnared.

Israeli officials have kept nearly everything else about this effort secret, even deflecting requests for more information from UNHCR, the U.N. refugee agency. But a year-long investigation by Foreign Policy that included interviews with multiple Eritrean and Sudanese asylum-seekers as well as people involved at various stages of the relocation process — including one person who admitted to helping coordinate illegal border crossings — reveals an opaque system of shuffling asylum-seekers from Israel, via Rwanda or Uganda, into third countries, where they are no longer anyone’s responsibility.

It begins with furtive promises by Israeli authorities of asylum and work opportunities in Rwanda and Uganda. Once the Sudanese and Eritrean asylum-seekers reach Kigali or Entebbe, where Uganda’s international airport is located, they describe a remarkably similar ordeal: They meet someone who presents himself as a government agent at the airport, bypass immigration, move to a house or hotel that quickly feels like a prison,

and are eventually pressured to leave the country. For the Eritreans, it is from Rwanda to Uganda. For Sudanese, it is from Uganda to South Sudan or Sudan. The process appears designed not just to discard unwanted refugees, but to shield the Israeli, Rwandan, and Ugandan governments from any political or legal accountability.

While a handful of the Eritreans and Sudanese have managed to maneuver or mislead their way into asylum in Rwanda or Uganda, and dozens more live in a stateless limbo in the Ugandan capital of Kampala, most have given in to the pressure to leave those countries, making dangerous illegal border crossings that leave them vulnerable to blackmail and physical abuse at the hands of smugglers and security forces. Some have continued north to Sudan or Libya in an effort to reach Europe. A few have been captured and killed by Islamic State fighters or drowned on the treacherous Mediterranean crossing.

Officials across several relevant ministries in Israel, Rwanda, and Uganda all issued denials or refused repeated requests for comment. But the nearly identical experiences of asylum-seekers arriving in Rwanda and Uganda, as well as their ability to bypass standard immigration channels and occasionally procure official documents from their handlers, suggests a level of government knowledge, if not direct involvement, in all three capitals.

Semene fled Eritrea in 2007, after four years in the country’s military. Service there is compulsory and it can stretch on indefinitely. Instead of training, conscripts are often forced to work on their commanders’ private farms or for state-owned busi-

36 36

|JULY-2017|

nesses. The conditions are so restrictive and the compensation so negligible that in 2016 a U.N. Human Rights Council report on the country determined that “Eritrean officials have committed the crime of enslavement … in a persistent, widespread and systematic manner.” During his four years of service, Semene, a small, slight man with an easy smile, was allowed to visit his family only once.

Semene is a pseudonym. Life under military dictatorship instilled in him a deep sense of caution, and he is hesitant to share too many details about his past in case security forces target his family members who still live in Eritrea. Risking imprisonment and possible execution there, he ran — first to a refugee camp in Sudan, where he faced constant shortages of food and water, and then to Egypt. Finding the environment for refugees there only marginally better, he paid smugglers $2,800 to take him across Sinai into Israel. He knew little about the country, except that it was a democracy. “Simply, I try my luck,” he said.

And finally, luck seemed to be on his side. In 2008, Israeli authorities issued him a visa that was renewable every six months. He found a job stocking groceries at a Tel Aviv shop, and applied for official refugee status. “I adopt the place,” he told me, including learning Hebrew. “I adopt their food. I know the language. I see Israel as my country.”

Thousands more asylum-seekers like Semene continued to arrive — mostly from Eritrea, but also from Sudan, including hundreds fleeing a government-perpetrated genocide in the country’s Darfur region. By 2012, a leading Israeli politician was denouncing the asylum-seekers as “a cancer in our body” and residents of south Tel Aviv were organizing protests against them. That same year, the minister of interior suggested making “their lives miserable” in order to dissuade even more from coming.

One way the Israeli government did just that was by erecting a sprawling detention center for asylum-seekers in the middle of the Negev Desert. Operated by the Israel Prison Service (IPS), Holot — which means “sand” in Hebrew — now holds more than 3,000 male asylumseekers, who had previously been allowed to live and (unofficially) work while they awaited a decision on their refugee applications. Most detainees said they learned they had been randomly chosen to relocate to Holot only when they attempted to renew their visas. They were given days to report to the facility, where they can legally be held for up to a year. Some politicians are pushing to make the sentence indefinite.

Semene was summoned to Holot in early 2014. “It’s really a prison,” is how he described what appears on the outside to be a beleaguered tent city. I made two visits to the facility, though I was not allowed to enter. Instead, I sat with detainees outside the chain-link fence topped with razor wire, as they described conditions inside. They live 10 to a room and though they can come and go from the facility, they are required to check in with authorities once per day. Failure to do so earns a short stint in a nearby maximum-security prison. Residents are not allowed to work or even to bring food brought by friends or family members into Holot. With the nearest town hours away, they spend most of their time sitting at the makeshift restaurants they have constructed near the entrance to the camp. IPS authorities regularly tear them down, but the detainees keep rebuilding them.

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NEW FACE : TERRORISM

HAMZA BIN BIN LADEN LADEN HAMZA HELPING AL-QAEDA AL-QAEDA HELPING

The gravest extremist threat in West Asia isn't the nation that just voted overwhelmingly for peaceful coexistence with the international community.

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T

Hamza grew up with a fervor for jihad and a determination to follow in the footsteps of his notorious father. And toward the end of his life, the older bin Laden began grooming Hamza for a leadership role.

BY : ALI SOUFAN

he foothills of the Spin Ghar mountain range, two dozen miles south of Jalalabad in the borderland between Afghanistan and Pakistan, were once home to hundreds of olive plantations. For tens of thousands of acres, there used to be farms clustered along the banks of the Nangarhar Canal, a monumental hydroelectric irrigation project completed in the 1960s, when Afghanistan was safe and liberal enough to form a regular stop on the hippie trail from Europe to India and the Far East. By the turn of the new millennium, however, more than 20 years of continuous warfare had almost destroyed the canal’s capacity to pump water to the groves, all but killing what had once been a flourishing business.

One day in the fall of 2001, with yet another foreign invasion brewing, a father sat with three of his young sons in the shade of one of the few remaining olive trees. Together, they performed a simple farewell ceremony. To each of the three boys, the father gave a misbaha—a set of prayer beads symbolizing the 99 names of God in classical Arabic. Then the father took his leave and disappeared into the mountains, heading for a familiar redoubt known as the Black Cave—or, in the local Pashto language, Tora Bora. “It was as if we pulled out our livers and left them there,” one of the sons recalled in a letter in 2009.

The boy who wrote that letter was Hamza bin Laden, a son of Osama bin Laden, who was then the leader of AlQaeda. Hamza was to spend most of the next decade in captivity. He grew up behind bars, missing his father deeply.

“How many times, from the depths of my heart, I wished to be beside you,” Hamza wrote to him in the letter. “I remember every smile that you smiled at me, every word that you spoke to me and every look that you gave me.”

Hamza grew up with a fervor for jihad and a determination to follow in the footsteps of his notorious father. And toward the end of his life, the older bin Laden began grooming Hamza for a leadership role. He even made plans for Hamza to join him in his secret compound in Abbottabad—the place where Navy SEALs ultimately shot him dead. But 16 years after their farewell under that olive tree, Hamza’s emergence as a jihadi leader, along with several of his father’s most trusted and competent lieutenants, portends an AlQaeda resurgence.

Today, it might seem like the Islamic State group is strong, as its followers attack and kill innocents in London and Manchester. But its power is dwindling, as it loses men

and territory in Iraq and Syria thanks to an assault by Iraqi, Kurdish and American forces. Meanwhile, Hamza’s story—based on books, court documents, open-source intelligence, Al-Qaeda videos and records seized from his father’s compound after his death in 2011, among other things—shows how ISIS’s parent organization, Al-Qaeda, is making a comeback—one with potentially deadly consequences for the West and the rest of the world.

In the months after 9/11 and the fall of the Taliban, as the U.S. invaded Afghanistan, bin Laden family members and highranking Al-Qaeda figures escaped to the Shiite stronghold of Iran. That may seem like a surprising destination for some of the world’s most fervent Sunni extremists—men who pepper their public utterances with slurs about their Shiite rivals. But in the wake of the attacks on New York City and Washington, D.C., Iran was the one place in the Muslim world where America’s military and law enforcement apparatus could not apprehend them. The Iranian authorities deported most of the Al-Qaeda members they captured, but they held on to a few high-value detainees to use as bargaining chips in hostage negotiations and other sticky situations. Among these valuable hostages were Hamza and his mother, Khayria, as well as three key figures: Abu Khayr al-Masri, the head of the Al-Qaeda’s political committee, Abu Mohammed al-Masri, the head of its training camps, and Saif alAdel, its chief of security and tactician.

Immediately following the trio’s arrest in Shiraz in April 2003, they were hauled off to Tehran and jailed for around 20 months in the dungeons of a building belonging to Iran’s feared intelligence apparatus. The top tier of Al-Qaeda and their families were held incommunicado and without charge. Around the beginning of 2005, they were moved to a spacious military compound with an apartment complex, a soccer field and a mosque, adjacent to a training camp for one of the many Shiite militant groups on Tehran’s payroll. Their families were allowed to join

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NEW FACE : TERRORISM

them, though at least one of the detainees suspected this was a ruse to allow the Iranians to keep tabs on potentially troublesome family members.

But the prisoners were restive. For these hardy mujahedeen, suburban comforts only heightened their humiliation. One of them told his captors he would sooner be extradited to Israel than spend any more time in Iran’s gilded cage. In March 2010, the prisoners staged what one detainee later described as “a huge act of disturbance.” Masked, black-clad Iranian troops were ordered to storm the compound. The soldiers beat the men and some of the children and hauled off the senior detainees to solitary confinement, where they stewed for 101 days.

The detainees’ ability to communicate with the outside world seems to have varied over time. At first, they were held, as one U.S. official puts it, “under virtual house arrest, not able to do much of anything.” Phone calls to family members were strictly limited. But the strictures gradually loosened, just as the detainees’ living conditions slowly improved. The Iranian authorities eventually set up a system permitting prisoners to send

emails and browse the web, albeit with limited access.

There were other ways of communicating with the outside too. Adel’s father-in-law, Mustafa Hamid, who was held in Iran under looser conditions, visited the main group of detainees every few months. With his greater liberty, Hamid was in a position to serve as courier, and this may be how Adel was able to publish a column on security and intelligence in the house magazine of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Muaskar al-Battar (Camp of the Sword).

Other detainees escaped and brought manuscripts with them, written by the detainees; bin Laden’s daughter Iman smuggled out a text called Twenty Guidelines on the Path of Jihad—a book highly critical of ISIS founder Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s violence against civilians in Iraq—and eventually had it published. (The book presaged the conflict that split ISIS from Al-Qaeda years later.)

Despite their restlessness, the detainees managed to create elements of their previous lives behind bars. The men came together five times a day for prayers and con-

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Ocean, the sheikh could not pass on his aura.

In July 2014, as the feud between ISIS and AlQaeda grew, Zawahiri renewed his group’s bayat, or loyalty oath, to Mullah Omar, the Taliban leader. At the time, it seemed a smart symbolic move to underline the illegitimacy of Baghdadi’s claim to supremacy. A year later, however, it emerged that Omar had succumbed to tuberculosis in April 2013; Zawahiri and Al-Qaeda had pledged allegiance to a man who had been dead for 15 months.

This looked bad for Zawahiri; either he had known Omar was dead and sworn fealty to a cadaver—a grave transgression in AlQaeda’s Salafi-jihadi version of Islam—or he had not known and was therefore too far out of the loop to call himself a true emir. The gaffe provoked ridicule from some jihadis, dismay from others. At a time when Zawahiri was already struggling to show his relevance in the age of ISIS, it seemed to confirm the worst fears about his leadership.

But Zawahiri does not stand alone at the prow of Al-Qaeda, and his crew has recently grown stronger—at a time when war with the West and its allies has weakened ISIS. In an audio message recorded in May or June 2015, Zawahiri triumphantly introduced a man he called “a lion from the den of AlQaeda.” After four years of silence following his father’s death, Hamza bin Laden’s voice was heard once again, and his words remained faithful to Al-Qaeda’s message. He praised the leaders of Al-Qaeda’s various spinoffs, insulted President Barack Obama as “the black chief of [a] criminal gang,” lauded the attacks on Fort Hood and the Boston Marathon, and called for jihadis to “take the battlefield from Kabul, Baghdad and Gaza to Washington, London, Paris and Tel Aviv.”

In his 2015 statement, Hamza called for the release of imprisoned Al-Qaeda members, singling out the “sheikhs” whom he credits with his education while in captivity, including the Shura big three—Abu Khayr al-Masri, Saif al-Adel and Abu Mohammed al-Masri. “May God release them all,” Hamza entreated.His prayers were soon answered. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, in the middle of its ascendancy in Yemen, had bombed the Iranian ambassador’s residence in Sanaa in December 2014. Later, it had shot dead an Iranian diplomat who was resisting a kidnapping attempt. The group had also successfully taken two Iranian diplomats alive. Sometime in 2015, it swapped them for Al-Qaeda’s three top leaders in Iran, who got a hero’s welcome in Waziristan. l

versation at the mosque. The prisoners asked that their children be allowed to attend school—and the authorities said no— but Hamza’s mother, who is well-educated, urged him to pursue learning as best he could, and a group of senior detainees took it upon themselves to educate him in Koranic study, Islamic jurisprudence and the Hadith, a collection of sayings attributed to the Prophet Muhammad. While in custody, Hamza married a daughter of Abu Mohammed al-Masri and had children.

He would never see his father again, but soon he would become just like him—an advocate of violent, radical jihad.

By 2014, Al-Qaeda and ISIS had officially split. ISIS had not only conquered territory in Iraq and Syria but shocked the world, beheading Americans on tape and broadcasting its brutality. In the eyes of the West, Al-Qaeda was no longer the most dangerous extremist group, and ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had become a new bin Laden. To some jihadis, however, Baghdadi was much more: He was the leader prophesized to bring about a worldwide Islamic caliphate.

Baghdadi’s rise came at the expense of Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al-Qaeda’s leader. The Egyptian may have inherited bin Laden’s portfolio and job title, but from his grave under the Indian

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POLITICS

THE COLLAPSE OF PARLIAMENTARY POLITICS 42 |JULY-2017|

BY : Jiro Yamaguchi

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he past month has witnessed an increasingly serious phenomenon indicating the collapse of parliamentary politics. During the Diet committee interpellations on the Kake Gakuen scandal, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe refused to answer questions, wasted time on idle talk and jeered at opposition lawmakers asking questions even though he tells the opposition side not to jeer when he’s speaking. When opposition lawmakers asked a question, he would mutter that it was stupid. Abe lacks adult common sense.

The suspicions involving Moritomo Gakuen and Kake Gakuen, and the government’s response to the allegations over them, indicate that Japan is moving backward from a modern state governed by law to a pre-modern patrimonial state. A patrimonial state is one in which there is no distinction between the private property of those in power and the public assets of the state, and the people in power can utilize state property or their political power for private purposes. Bureaucrats in a patrimonial state are in servitude to those in power. State officials do not perform their jobs on the basis of law. When the master says white is black, they nod their heads in agreement.

The conspiracy crime law enacted in the just-concluded Diet session runs counter to the concept of “no punishment without law,” a basic principle under the modern criminal justice system. In that it could allow for discretionary powers of the police to suppress civil liberties, the

law also contributes to the return to a patrimonial state. Special favors allegedly provided to Moritomo Gakuen and Kake Gakuen represent the discretionary use of state property and power. To curry favor with the powers that be, bureaucrats ignore the law and destroy official documents and cover up government corruption. A journalist who flatters those in power escapes prosecution for a heinous sex crime as top police officials hush it up. Abe is indeed the master of a patrimonial state.

The former administrative vice education minister, who testified to the existence of documents that suggest the strong influence of people close to the prime minister in the government decision on the Kake Gakuen case, apparently wanted to demonstrate that he was a modern civil servant who follows the law, not a pawn in a patrimonial system who serves those in power. Abe’s irregular behavior in the Diet come from his lack of understanding of the rules and manners required in the public sphere of discourse, which explains why he brings his private sphere behavior into it. His arrogance led me to recall the phrase “senorite satisfecho” (satisfied young man) in Spanish philosopher Jose Ortega y Gasset’s “Revolt of the Masses.” Abe is “the man of this type.” As Ortega says, a return to aristocracy — where the rulers are required to fulfill noble duties — will be unthinkable. But still, public/private distinction is the Abe’s sole dominance of the political scene has begun to change. Now that the real state of his administration is being exposed, chances will rise that the major political agenda, including the constitutional revision on which the prime minister is expected to pour his utmost energy, will be subject to decent discussions both within the ruling coalition and the opposition camps. l Jiro Yamaguchi is a professor of political science at Hosei University..TARO ASO, Japan’s finance minister, is a seasoned champion of the political gaffe.

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INITIATIVE

JAPAN’S GOVERNMENT IS IN TWO MINDS ON SMOKING

It brings in a lot of money but makes lots of people ill 44 |JUNE-2017|

BY : Jiro Yamaguchi

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aro aso, Japan’s finance minister, is a seasoned champion of the political gaffe. Among his most notorious observations was that health costs could be cut if elderly people would just hurry up and die. Even by that standard, however, the doubts he has expressed about the link between cigarettes and lung cancer have raised eyebrows. Mr Aso’s scepticism might just be wishful thinking: he is, after all, a lifelong smoker. But his ministry also rakes in more than ¥2trn ($18bn) a year from tobacco taxes and owns about a third of Japan Tobacco, the world’s fourth-largest cigarette-maker.

Campaigners have railed for years against the anomaly of a government that simultaneously sells cigarettes and discourages smoking. One likens it to accelerating a car with the brakes on. The debate

has come to a head over a proposed ban on smoking inside most buildings other than private residences, to protect people from passive smoking. The health ministry wants it in force before millions of tourists arrive in Tokyo for the Olympics in 2020. Nearly 70% of MPs from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), to which Mr Aso belongs, have joined a group that opposes the ban. Egging them on are a small but influential group of tobacco farmers, and the huge catering industry, which frets that the measure would force thousands of small bars, restaurants and izakayas—Japan’s beloved and ubiquitous gastropubs—out of business. Most passive smoking, responsible for at least 15,000 deaths a year, occurs in such premises, the health ministry says. l

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CONTROVERSY NORTH-EAST

SOLAR ENERGY EMPOWERS COMMUNITIES IN RURAL ASSAM BY : Ratna Bharali Talukdar

46 |JULY-2017|

I

t is a pleasant morning, heralding the spring, in Birsing Part I char village. However, Shahida Khatun, 30, cannot quite enjoy it. She has a fever and is waiting in the lobby of the char’s Riverine Primary Health Centre (PHC) to consult the doctor.

Birsing is one of 2,251 habitations in Assam that are situated on chars or sandy, shifting islands all along the Brahmaputra.

Unlike most chars, it was not formed by silt deposition, but was originally a part of Fakirganj town that got separated from the mainland by the changing course of the river. As a result, the landmass is not as fragile or impermanent as other chars, and has remained almost intact over the years.

Birsing char comprises of three villages – Birsing Part I (with a population of 5,548), Birsing Part II (population 2,386) and Birsing Part III (population 3,117), according to Census 2011.

Shahida and a few other patients are chatting as they wait at the PHC. The conversation centres around the solar panels installed in January 2017 on the tin roof of the 18-room health centre.

The 20 panels and 16 batteries, installed by the Assam Energy Development Agency, can generate five kilowatts of electricity.

Solar energy has transformed the quality of healthcare available to the char residents, after decades of darkness. “This PHC now has electricity and run-

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NORTH-EAST ning water,” says Shahida, pointing to the solar panels. “Now pregnant women can come here for check-ups and to give birth to their babies.”

least 25 years unless broken or physically damaged. The batteries require some maintenance; when required, service personnel are called from Dhubri town.

Shahida knows the importance of institutional deliveries in a geographically isolated area like Birsing. She says, “I delivered [two children at home] with the help of a midwife and neighbours. I was worried both times, I was uncertain of their expertise. But I had no option, and they assured me that everything will be alright…”

The only micro ATM service on the char, of the United Bank of India, also operates on solar power. Mohammed Ahmed Ali, the business development correspondent of the bank, comes from Dhubri every morning with a limited amount of cash and returns in the afternoon. “Daily transactions are running smoothly on solar power,” he says.But for Shahida, Tarachand and others on this char, it was the PHC, completed in 2014, that was a dream come true. At first, they were sceptical, because government employees are usually reluctant to work on chars.

Besides, the people of Birsing, Shahida says, were hesitant about visiting the PHC because they did not know how to describe their illnesses to a doctor. But Dr. Sarkar, who has been working on the char since 2014, when the government requisitioned his services, has made a major difference. He has tried to ensure that the staff comes to the PHC regularly and provide basic healthcare, medicines and safe deliveries.Dr. Sarkar had to make frequent visits to the health department in Dhubri town for about two years before the solar plates were installed at the PHC – and with them came running water and electricity.

“Around 65 patients n average come to the hospital every day,” says Samimatul Kobra Khatun, a community health worker at

Before the PHC got solar energy, only pregnant women facing medical emergencies were rushed to the government or private hospitals in Dhubri town, across the river. Renting a boat can be expensive – costs range from Rs. 2,000 to Rs. 3,000 – at night, when the regular daytime boat services stop; added to this are the hospital expenses.Although the PHC on Birsing closes in the afternoon and thereafter, for any emergency, people still have to rush to Dhubri, the arrival of solar electricity has given the health centre a new life. “The solar plates were installed in January 2017, and from February to March we have had 18 deliveries,” says Dr. Jawaharlal Sarkar. He heads at PHC, after retiring as a sub-divisional medical officer (epidemics) in Fakirganj in 2014. “We have 10 ASHA workers [Accredited Social Health Activists] on the char, and all of them work to ensure that pregnant women come for institutional deliveries.”

Shahida and I walk through the marketplace to her home after her consultation with Dr. Sarkar. The market is deserted in the daytime; only a few tea stalls and pharmacies are open. Most of the shops open in the evenings, after the shop-owners return from their day-jobs as rickshaw-pullers, vendors or bamboo workers in Dhubri. Shahida’s husband Shahjamal Sheikh, a rickshawpuller in Dhubri town, also has a small grocery shop in the char market.Many households in Birsing, including Shahida’s, have installed solar panels. Some have been helped by a government scheme that provides one solar panel and a battery for a subsidised Rs. 3,600. These can light two CFL/LED bulbs of 1.5 watts each. A few families have purchased solar systems that cost Rs. 20,000 from the market. These can run four bulbs plus a television or a ceiling fan at the same time. “The income-generating avenues [in Dhubri] help us to earn some surplus to spend on necessities such as the solar plates,” says Tarachand Ali, the owner of a small eatery in the market.Asmat Ali, 62, a panchayat member, estimates that at least 50% of Birsing’s houses have solar energy. “Children can now study at night with ease,” he says.

“Earlier, they could not do so because kerosene was the only source of lighting.”Four years ago, the Assam Energy Development Agency (AEDA) also installed a four kilowatt solar system at the Kasturba Gandhi Balika Vidyalaya on Birising. The AEDA is the state nodal agency of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. According to an AEDA official, a new solar panel lasts for at

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the PHC. “Fever, skin diseases and stomach problems are common ailments here.”The staff at the PHC includes a pharmacist, an auxiliary nurse midwife (ANM), and a laboratory technician.

All of them live in Dhubri and use machine-fitted country boats without roofs to cross the river and reach the hospital around 8.45 a.m. Outpatient services continue until 1 pm.“People avoid working on a char because of its isolation,” says Dr. Sarkar. “But when I was requested to work here after my retirement, I took it as a blessing that enabled me to offer my services to those who genuinely need it. I know how much we have to do for the health sector, particularly to improve maternal health in charareas.”The Assam Human Development Report 2014 states that the total fertility rate (TFR) is highest in the charareas at 2.8. It also states that early marriage is a major problem here – 25.3% of women marry at 15-19 years of age, the highest in the state’s spatial diversity areas (which include the chars, tea estates, hills and border areas). According to the report, Dhubri district has the highest percentage of married women in the 15-19 age-group – 29.2%. It is a long road ahead for Birsing, but now when the sun sets it no longer leaves many of the residents of this char in darkness. While many others still use kerosene – bought for Rs. 40 per litre in the open market – to light up their homes, there is perhaps the promise of a new dawn.l

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UTTAR PRADESH

RISE AND FALL OF

YOGI ADITYANATH

THE

BY :Dhirendra K Jha

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ebruary 2002 got woven irrevocably into Indian political history owing to the riots, which killed more than a 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, in the western state of Gujarat, under the watch of then Chief Minister, Narendra Modi. As India reeled from the images of its first televised riot, a young politician in the remote, impoverished district of Gorakhpur in the north Indian state of Uttar Pradesh saw an opportunity in the heightened religious polarisation.

Yogi Adityanath, who represented Gorakhpur in the Indian parliament from the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) , had been struggling with his shrinking margins of victory in the elections. Within weeks of the Gujarat violence, Adityanath announced the formation of an organisation known as Hindu Yuva Vahini (HYV) or Vehicle for Hindu Youth. Although it was registered as a cultural organisation, the HYV worked like a Hindu nationalist militia, trying to create a fear of minorities - especially Muslims - among the majority Hindus. Its preferred tactic was to frame every argument and altercation between a Hindu and Muslim in religious terms and turn it into a mini-sectarian riot. About three months after the formation of the Vahini, on June 16, 2012, news came of the rape and murder of a Hindu girl in Mundera, a Muslim-majority village about 30 miles from Gorakhpur. The victim's family blamed a Muslim family's servant, who was arrested and later convicted for the crime. Three days later, Adityanath and his militia arrived at the village where he made a provocative speech. This instigated violence among the villagers and just in a few hours, 47 Muslims houses were burnt.

Within six months of the formation of the Vahini, Gorakhpur and the neighbouring districts witnessed at least six major sectarian riots in addition to innumerable minor ones. Although his party, the BJP, was defeated in the national elections in 2004, Adityanath won in Gorakhpur and his margin of victory rose by 142,000 votes. Adityanath was and remains the head of the influ-

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ential Gorakhnath Hindu sect, whose leaders have been leading figures in Hindu nationalist politics since the 1940s. The influence of his sect always aided him but his Hindu youth militia helped Adityanath to get a greater number of votes by polarising the electorate in Gorakhpur along sectarian lines in 2004.

Vehicle for Hindu Youth members are so reverent toward their master that they won't even speak his name, instead referring to Adityanath with a rather long honorific: Goraksha Peethadhishwar Parampujya Yogi Adityanath Ji Maharaj - Lord of the Goraksha Seminary, Most Worthy of Worship, Maharaja Yogi Adityanath. They often repeat it several times in a sentence.

Sunil Singh, a tall, stocky man with an aggressive demeanour, had been unemployed for three years after getting a master's degree in the Hindi language from Gorakhpur University, when he started working for Adityanath in 1998. Singh came from the same upper caste Thakur community as Adityanath and became one of the first to join the Vahini.

He was 29 and soon rose to the position of state president for the organisation. The patronage of Adityanath also ensured that Singh obtained lucrative contracts for the construction of public buildings from the local government. Singh began driving around in a white SUV after becoming the state president of the Vahini - the big car was an essential status symbol for the small-town Indian politician.

Singh wore a long saffron stole around his neck, which is a marker of being a member of the Vahini. He and other early members began with recruiting young Hindu men in Gorakhpur, which has a population of around a million.

"The response was massive," he recalled. They expanded their outreach and recruitment across eastern Uttar Pradesh, a mostly impoverished region with a population of nearly 30 million. The official tasks of the Vahini activists were: to mingle with lower caste Hindus by organising lunches for all castes to create Hindu unity, increase membership, and organise public meetings and marches.

Singh and his teams fanned out across numerous villages of eastern Uttar Pradesh trying to recruit young men.

They aimed to enlist about 250 men from each village. After recruitment they would put their names on a billboard in the village. "They are also required to put up triangular saffron flags of the Vahini on their houses," Singh explained.

They came up with some catchy, aggressive slogans aimed at intimidating minorities and building a menacing strongman image for their leader, Yogi Adityanath. "To live in Gorakhpur, you got to chant: Yogi, Yogi," and "To live in Poorvanchal (eastern Uttar Pradesh), you got to chant Yogi, Yogi," such slogans proclaimed.

The aggression and low-level sectarian violence perpetuated by Adityanath's militia continued. On January 27, 2007, Adityanath made a speech about "revenge" for the death of a Hindu boy who was injured - and later died - in a clash between two groups during a Muslim religious festival. Adityanath also threatened to burn and destroy Tazia towers, small representations of the tombs of Hasan and Hussain, the grandsons of Prophet Muhammad, which Muslims carry during festival processions.

To keep up with his threat, Adityanath and other leaders of the Vahini set out toward the troubled areas but the local government arrested them.

Riots broke out in Gorakhpur and neighbouring districts. Two people were killed and property worth 50 crores ($8m) was burnt.

Until then, the local government had been passive in taking action against the militia but with state elections scheduled in forthcoming months, politicians thought that inaction would cost the ruling party the votes of Muslims. l

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INDIA: TOWARDS THE FIERCE PEASANT PEASANTS MOVEMENT

AGRICULTURE

BY : Dr. Raja Ram Tripathi

What will happen to the farmers now? First, they will seek more loans not just to survive, but also to prepare for the next summer crop as well as to save the current winter crop. But credit from formal sources is shrinking as the recent Reserve Bank of India data shows. So they will be forced to fall back on informal lending sources with high interest rates. This will only add to their already huge debt burden

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he current plight of the farmers of the country pushes into the past-In the vicinity of 1967. At that time the plight of farmers and laborers was due to government policies and Naxalbadi movement started as an armed revolution in Naxalbadi against the government policies. Today, 70 percent part of the country is in the grip of Naxalism. Governments neither improved the policies for the farmers nor prevent the Naxalite insurgency. Both continue to move parallel. Now, situation will be burst. We, Indian are going to face new kinds of fierce peasant’s movement.

The national Crime Records Bureau recently announced the annual data on farmer suicides. In a span of just one year— from 2014 to 2015—cases of farmer suicide have gone up by 42 per cent. For more than 15 years, this data has been released

with diminishing attention, as if as a nation we have become immune to such unfortunate deaths. But, the numbers are only shamefully increasing, and from new regions. Death has become an occupational hazard for the farmer.

Hardly 48 hours after the data was declared, it made customary appearances in the media as a token of the latter’s social responsibility. This was followed by the usual, but highly insensitive, burial of the news. For all those high decibel debates over demonetization and its impact on the rural economy, the new data on farmer suicides should have forced us to ponder as to why 2017 is going to be more deadly for farmers. Here’s why.

It took the tragic death of six farmers in Madhya Pradesh for the national media to report on the deep-rooted agricultural crisis. The farmers who were killed in police firing during protests were demanding that the government pay a higher minimum

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The current crisis is about the problem of aplenty. The crop production this year has been good, but the farmers are in trouble because the glut means that the value of the crop has gone down. After seasons of bad yield, this is the straw that breaks the camel’s back. The bumper crop could have helped them make good their losses and pay their loans. Their despair should make us act. usual last working day of February. Will the budget depart from the usual declaration of schemes and make a grand gesture to rescue the farmers from this death trap?

The current crisis is about the problem of aplenty. The crop production this year has been good, but the farmers are in trouble because the glut means that the value of the crop has gone down. After seasons of bad yield, this is the straw that breaks the camel’s back. The bumper crop could have helped them make good their losses and pay their loans. Their despair should make us act.

There are many issues here. First, how will the country pay higher prices for crops? We also need to keep the food inflation low because the high cost of food would make consumers unhappy. It is also a fact that India has a vast numbers of really poor people. The government’s food procurement— buying from farmers and providing it to people through the public distribution programme—keeps the country away from faminelike situations.

So the government is caught between a rock and a hard place. On one side are farmers who need to be paid the right price for growing food and on the other side are people (including thousands of farmers) who cannot afford expensive food. As yet, the policy has been to subsidize food, not pay farmers. That’s what MSP is all about.

The second challenge is how to price agricultural produces.

For farmers MSP is an insurance against price volatility. But it is set for 22 food crops only. Of these crops, governments primarily procure paddy and wheat at MSP. But the MSP mechanism needs to be reworked. In fact, the costing of food needs to be reworked, indeed understood, in its totality. We know that input costs are reducing farmers’ earnings. We also know that farmers are faced with an increasingly variable weather, which leads to crop losses. So, we don’t know what investment a farmer makes to provide us food.

support price (MSP) for their crops. But it is not only in Madhya Pradesh that farmers are out in the streets. Agricultural unrest is worse in the more prosperous and productive regions, where the input cost of farming is higher and so is the debt. Farmers are bleeding. Enough is enough, they are saying.

What will happen to the farmers now? First, they will seek more loans not just to survive, but also to prepare for the next summer crop as well as to save the current winter crop. But credit from formal sources is shrinking as the recent Reserve Bank of India data shows. So they will be forced to fall back on informal lending sources with high interest rates. This will only add to their already huge debt burden. It is highly possible they will not be able to lessen this loan burden. Such a situation is the usual trigger for suicide. It is certain that this will unfold sooner than expected.

So what is the next option for farmers and for the government to rescue farmers? After a massive demonetisation, remonetisation is the next immediate step the government has to focus on. Farmers have suffered from the general lack of cash in circulation. But remonetisation will take months.

There is only one way left now for the government: increase government spending in rural areas and create emergency credit and monetary support systems for farmers on a priority.

This will create income opportunities for farmers as well as give them the financial security to invest in the summer crop. The budget will be presented on February 1, a departure from the

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AGRICULTURE

Governments and market economists argue that MSPs have increased over the years. They say, it is because of this increased cost of procurement that agricultural productivity has jumped.

But they miss the fact that the cost of production cannot be computed only on the basis of how much money was spent to grow a particular crop. It has to take into account the enormous risks that farmers take, like the extreme variability of weather and freak events that destroy crops every year. Then why should the costing not include the cost of infrastructure required to grow food? Indian farmers invest huge amounts of private capital into building the infrastructure for their operations, unlike any private company or industry. They pay for building irrigation facilities—more than half of the irrigated land uses groundwater. Some 19 million wells and tube wells have been built with private capital.

This discussion on the cost of food must also take into account two deadly distortions. One is the difference between the price that a farmer is paid for his/her produce and the price at which consumers like you and me buy it. It is widely known and accepted that this gap is increasing. It is also known that this price disparity is due to a combination of factors, from restrictive laws over sale of agricultural products to lack of facilities and infrastructure for storage, transportation and direct sale to cut out intermediaries. This clearly needs to be the focus, if

we want affordable food. The second distortion is the option to import certain produces in certain quantities to “cool down” rising prices. But this then hits farmers doubly. No, triply. They lose when crops fail because of the weather; they lose when the prices are low because of over-production; they lose when the prices are high because of imports. It’s a wonder that they still stick to farming and sustaining our consumption.

Don’t be fooled into thinking that other countries do not provide subsidy to farmers because of the provisions of the World Trade Organization. The name of the subsidy has changed—moved from the green box to amber or from direct to indirect—but not the reality. And don’t be fooled into thinking that our farmers are paid huge subsidies. The bulk of the so-called agricultural subsidies go to fertilizer companies so that they produce and sell fertilizers at cheap rates to farmers.

The rest of the food subsidy, if we can call it that, is the purchase of food for distribution. So, there is an extremely unequal playing field out there. It needs to be understood. It is time we talked about the real cost of our food, about how to benefit the farmers who grow our food. This is not a business we can afford to lose.l (Author is the National Editor of CULT CURRENT and active as a National Convener of All India Farmers Association (AIFA).

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70% OF FARMERS SPEND MORE THAN THEY EARN BY : Devanik Saha

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early 70% of India’s 90 million agricultural households spend more than they earn on average each month, pushing them towards debt, which is now the primary reason in more than half of all suicides by farmers nationwide, according to an IndiaSpend analysis of various government data. The failing economics of such farms–agricultural households in the south are most indebted–are exacerbated by additional loans that families take to meet health issues, leaving them with diminished ability to invest in farming. Outstanding loans for health reasons doubled over a decade to 2012, and loans for farm business fell by about half over the same period.

These data help understand the nature of India’s farm crisis in the light of the recent spate of farmer protests across states to demand loan waivers and better prices for their crops. These 62.6 million households spending more than they earn had land holdings of one hectare or less, according to the 2013 situation assessment survey of farm households by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), the latest available data. In contrast, 0.35 million (0.39%) households owning more than 10 hectares of land had an average monthly income of Rs 41,338 and consumption expenditure of Rs 14,447, thereby maintaining a monthly surplus of Rs 26,941. Nearly 85% of all operational farm holdings in the country are smaller than two hectares in size, NSSO data show. No more than a third of Indian small and marginal farmers have access to institutional credit, as IndiaSpend reported on June 8, 2017, which suggests that loan waivers may not help them.

Andhra Pradesh has the highest share of indebted agricultural households (93%), followed by Telangana (89%) and Tamil Nadu (82.1%). The nationwide figure is 52%. Indebtedness was listed as the primary reason for 55% of farmer suicides in 2015 and more than 300,000 Indian farmers have committed suicide since 1995, IndiaSpend reported on January 2, 2017. Apart from meagre farm income, rising healthcare costs increase farmer debt. Outstanding loans for health reasons have doubled from 3% in 2002 to 6% in 2012, according to a 2015 analysis of NSSO data by the National Bank For Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD). Meanwhile, loans for farm business fell by half over a decade, from 58% in 2002 to 29% in 2012, as IndiaSpend reported on July 21, 2015.

Nearly half (48%) of overnight trips made by millions of Indians in rural areas are for medical purposes. The corresponding figure for

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urban areas is 25%. More than half of India’s rural population uses private healthcare services, which are four times as costly as public healthcare, and can cost the poorest 20% of Indians more than 15 times their average monthly expenditure, as IndiaSpend reported on July 16, 2016. “In all the farm households I’ve visited, where people have killed themselves, the single largest component of family debt was health costs,” said P Sainath, Ramon Magsaysay Award winner who pioneered farmer suicide reporting in India.

Recently, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra wrote off loans worth Rs 36,359 crore and Rs 30,000 crore, respectively.

India faces a cumulative loan waiver of Rs 3.1 lakh crore ($49.1 billion), or 2.6% of the country’s gross domestic product in 2016-17, IndiaSpend reportedon June 15, 2017.

However, indebtedness is a symptom and not the root cause of India’s farm crisis, according to a 2007 expert group report on agricultural indebtedness. Chaired by economist R Radhakrishna, the group reported that the average farm household borrowing had not been “excessive”, and laid the blame on factors such as “stagnation in agriculture, increasing production and marketing risks, institutional vacuum and lack of alternative livelihood opportunities”. In his 2016 budget speech, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had promised to double farmers’ income by 2022. “We are grateful to our farmers for being the backbone of the country’s food security. We need to think beyond food security and give back to our farmers a sense of income security.

Government will, therefore, reorient its interventions in the farm and non-farm sectors to double the income of the farmers by 2022,” he had said. Subsequently, Union Minister for Human Resource Development Prakash Javadekar outlined a seven-point strategy to double farm income, which included measures to step up irrigation, provide better quality seeds and prevent post-harvest losses, as Mint reported on June 17, 2017. These efforts face a range of challenges, as IndiaSpend said in this March 30, 2016, story. These include: Increasing costs of farm input such as seeds, fertilisers and irrigation; irrelevance of minimum support price for government procurement; absence of marketing infrastructure such as warehouses and cold storages; and the fact that 85% of farmers do not have insurance. Clearly, India’s farm crisis calls for a multi-pronged solution that addresses each of these challenges, and loan waiver is only one part. l

ECONOMIC

The Arithmetic Behind India’s

BY : Deepanshu Mohan

There are a few kinks to be worked out, but if implemented well, the manufacturing sector could be a GST winner while the telecom sector is likely to be worse off.

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ONE COUNTRY, ONE TAX

The Goods and Services Tax, India’s biggest tax reform since Independence, was formally introduced at a midnight of 30th June of Parliament session.

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ermed as one of the biggest reforms of India’s An illustration below covering the supply chain (that is, complicated indirect tax base since 1991, the manufacturer-wholesaler-retailer) of a car manufacturer in passage of the Constitution Amendment Bill, enIndia is formulated to explain how an effective and much lower abling the introduction of the Goods and ServGST incidence (tax burden) would ideally work for such a manices Tax (GST) seems to have become a reality at ufacturer in India. last. On March 29, 2017, with the passing of four For our case, let’s take the producer to be a manufacturer bills related to different aspects of the GST via the Lok Sabha, of a car and assume that he purchases raw materials (rubber the Indian parliamentary system has demonstrated a strong for tires, steel, engine parts, bolts, etc) for $1,000, in which he will for enhancing cooperative federalism by signing off on a includes a tax of $100. ‘pooling of sovereignty’ in taxation matters applicable for all 32 By using these raw mastates. terials, the manufacturer The realisation of a common can make a new car to be indirect tax, like the GST is critisold in a given automobile India ushered in a new economic reality cal for the semblance of a commarket. While the process of with a 60-minute star-studded midnight mon Indian market where all manufacturing involves a goods and services, depending gala at the imposing Central Hall of Parliadegree of value addition on the elasticity of their conment, thus becoming only the seventh coun(adding value to the raw sumption, will broadly be govmaterials he bought), we try in the world to have a nationwide Goods erned under a common indirect assume this value added by and Services Tax (GST).But away from the tax rate system. him to be $300. The gross media glare and relentless public commenIn an earlier article, I disvalue added for his car then tary, there were men and women who cussed how regressive India’s becomes $1000 + $300 = worked tirelessly to bring to fruition the tax structure has been (under a $1,300. country's biggest taxation overhaul since total tax slit of 35:65 ratio beAt a tax rate of 10%, the Independence. tween direct-indirect taxes), tax on output (of the car) where, over the last few becomes $130. Under GST, decades, owing to a complithe car manufacturer has cated web of cesses, surcharges the opportunity to set off this tax ($130) against the tax he has and other indirect taxes (imposed on different baskets of goods already paid on raw materials, that is, $100. In other words, the and services), the burden of such an imbalance has fallen dieffective GST incidence or tax burden on the manufacturer berectly on the consumer regardless of their income. comes $30 (130-100).

The implementation of GST could very well be a step in this As the car manufacturer sells the car to the wholesaler or direction, in untangling the complicated web of the indirect tax dealer, the wholesaler purchases the car for $1,300 and adds base in India. However, one may add here that, the imposition his profit margin to this value – say $50. The gross value of the of the GST (from July) is a minor step in the direction of reduccar he sells would then become $1,350 (1300 + 50). A 10% tax ing the incidence of indirect taxes in relation to the overall tax on this amount will be $135, but with the GST passed now, the burden. wholesaler will have the opportunity to offset the tax on his The arithmetic of GST.So, how would the GST work? sale, that is, $135 against the tax on his purchased good from

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ECONOMIC

the car manufacturer ($130). Whereby, the effective GST incidence on the wholesaler becomes $5 ($135- $130).

Next comes the retailer, who buys the car from the car wholesaler (or dealer). From the retailer’s purchase of $1350 (which was the selling price of the car from the wholesaler), the retailer again, adds a profit margin to this value, of say $50. The gross value now goes up to $1,350 + $ 50, that is, $1,400. The tax of 10% on this will become $140. With an opportunity to off-set this tax ($140) against the tax on the purchase from the wholesaler ($135), the retailer can reduce the effective GST incidence or tax burden on himself to $5 (140-135).

From the producer to the retailer, the GST through the manufacturer, wholesaler and retailer becomes $100 + $30 + $5 + $5 which is equal to $140.

The incorporation of GST thus, does away with the cascading indirect effect of a “tax on tax” (under the VAT and CENVAT tax system) which is usually calculated on the compounded value as the good (in this case, the car) keeps moving across the supply chain (from state to state).

More importantly, with a more uniform, simple tax structure like the GST, compliance becomes easy under a centralised tax calculating and collecting structure.

The probable impact of GST? It may be difficult to realistically depict a quantifiable impact of GST across various sectors unless a specific GST tax rate is known from the government’s end, which analysts earlier estimated to be somewhere around 17% or 18%.

Considering that the discussion across the board on the GST tax rate started with rate discussions of 12% and 18%; the four slab rates of 5%, 12%, 18% and 28%, with identified demerit goods subject to levy of cess over and above peak rate of 28% was a dampener for the industry, as argued here.

The newly designed multiple rate structure is derived from the fact that current effective indirect taxes (both centre and state) over certain bands are maintained for revenue neutrality and linked to above rate slabs.

The likely winners from the imposition of the GST as a centralised indirect valued added tax, will be from the manufacturing segment, including the automobile manufacturers, the FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) segment, the retail sector (provided consumer demand picks up) and the cement sector. One of the key losers could be the telecom sector, with the rise in GST tax rate, unless the VAT and CENVAT simultaneously see a marginal drop in their rates too. The sector is already plagued with serious problems pertaining to data volumes and slow bandwidth penetration across the country.

Another caveat with the GST has been with the constitution of the GST council – as mentioned in the tabled GST bill earlier – against which the AIADMK government (in Tamil Nadu) and few others in the opposition parties objected. While the forma-

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The rollout of the GST was in the making for over a decade, which was effected through an amendment to the Constitutionand five supporting laws being passed by Parliament and state assemblies. Since the passage of the Constitution Amendment bill in August 2016, there were over 175 officers' meetings and 18 sittings of the GST Council -- leading to 18,000-plus man hours of discussions for a smooth roll out of the new tax regime.

tion of the council is aimed at resolving disputes and fixing tax rates, the council as a constitutional body, encroaches on the legislative sovereignty of the state legislatures and the parliament. This can now be seen as a step to enhance federalism at the cost of pooling the sovereignty of the states, which I must add, are as much as a stakeholder as the Union government thanks to a long, inclusive, state-level consensus building efforts undertaken by the Union government.

Tax reforms like the GST is history in the making and the final passing of the GST bill (now in its final stages) will be termed as one of India’s biggest legislative success.

Having said that, it would be pertinent for the current government to exercise utmost discretion in regulating the GST tax rates, periodically through a well-managed float, in

a way where the emerging economic and business landscape within states (particularly the lesser developed states) are efficiently safeguarded without imposing any negative externalities.

A multiple rate structure with increase in tax compliance for service providers will push input costs for producers, causing inflationary tendencies (via cost-push effects); moreover, the administrative cost of tax collection and distribution will test the Union government’s capability, in the future, to act as a benevolent sovereign.

Deepanshu Mohan is assistant professor of economics at Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P. Global Jindal University. This article was first published on March 30, 2017 in thewire.in and is being republished by courtesy of thewire.in in light of the nation-wide roll-out of GST. Many of the issues raised in this piece still stand.

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CROP INSURANCE

MAKING CROP INSURANCE MANDATORY BY : Aparna Mathur

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rop insurance is a mechanism to protect farmers against the uncertainties of crop production, due to natural factors, beyond farmer’s control. Crop insurance can be seen as a means of sustenance for farmers which can help them to recover their losses due to natural or other factors and at the same time empower them to continue with their crop cycle. The farmers, especially small and marginal, cannot bear the risks of crop failure of a disastrous nature. Therefore, various methods have

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been adopted by the Government to help and compensate the farmers, at least partially, for loss of their crops through natural calamities. Minimal land rent, revision of taxes and cancellation of agricultural debts are some of the measures taken.

However, crop insurance is the best means to make farmers act independently and givethem necessary confidence in the economic activity they are engaged in. The overall benefits of crop insurance can be listed as :

4 Crop insurance protects the farmers in case of a crop loss, by assuring farmers a minimum of protection.

4 4 4 4 `

4

insured for cereals and millets and 1% for pulses and oilseeds, with premium and claims, shared between the Centre and States, in 2:1 ratio. The scheme was implemented in 16 States and 2 UTs and covered 7.63 crore farmers, for a premium of Rs. 403.56 crores and paid claims of Rs. 2,319 crores.

Crop Insurance reduces the crop losses and empowers the farmer.

Crop insurance improves the position of farmers in relation to agricultural credit.

Government provides subsidies in by sharing a certain percentage of the premium.

The National Agriculture Insurance Scheme (NAIS) which came during the 1999-2000 Rabi season was available to all States and Union Territories on an optional basis. A State had to continue it for a minimum period of three years. All farmers growing the notified crops in the notified areas were eligible for coverage. The scheme was compulsory for farmers availing crop production loans and voluntary for others. The Scheme covered food crops (Cereals, Millets and Pulses), Annual Commercial crops - sugarcane, cotton, potato, onion, chilly, turmeric, ginger, jute, tapioca, coriander, annual pineapple, etc. The minimum Sum Insured in case of loanee farmers, was the amount of loan availed, which could be further extended up to 150% of the average yield. For non loanee farmers, it can be up to a value of 150% of the average yield. The premium rates in the Rabi season were: 1.5% for wheat and 2% for other food crops and oilseeds. Small / Marginal farmers are subsidized in premium to the extent of 50 %, to be shared equally between the Centre and the States.

Crop insurance helps farmers to continue their business without fear Crop insurance enables maintenance of comput erised records of production and bank accounts.

Crop Insurance, therefore, not only empowers farmers but also makes them financially sustainable. All what is required on the part of the people is to go for these schemes, understand the modalities and enjoy the benefits of insurance programs.

Crop Insurance is needed because production process in agriculture is entirely different than in other enterprises.

The variability and instability in food grains production has increased in the post green revolution period. The crop output, particularly food grains, is sensitive to variations in rainfall. In the year of deficient rainfall, crop yields falls because of less rainfall and less alternatives to provide water to the crops. Moreover, Kharif crops are more sensitive to rainfall when compared to Rabi (post-monsoon) crops. In case there are no formal mechanisms available to tackle risk, the farmers go back to the old methods of minimizing risk and diffusing them. Many cropping strategies and farming practices depend on policy initiatives and demand for crop insurance farmers' own mechanisms for loss management or risk diffusion are unaffordable for a majority of them. Since agriculture is faced with risk and uncertainties, farm income fluctuates due to variability in crop yields and commodity prices. This leads to great hardship to the farmers.

This shows that sufficient experience has been gained by the country in the area of crop insurance. However, crop insurance has still not covered agricultural operations in any significant manner and the problems of cultivators, especially small and marginal, still persist. On a rough estimate only (checklist) per cent of the entire cropping area and only (checklist) per cent of farmers, big and small/marginal are getting benefitted by crop insurance schemes. To give financial protection to the farming operations there is an urgent need to expand coverage by crop insurance.

Governments, both at the Centre or in the States, spend a lot of money on loan waivers and subsidies, steps though necessary to provide relief in the short run, are not conducive to the healthy growth of agricultural economy in the long run. For this it is necessary to make crop insurance compulsory for all farming operations being conducted with or without bank loans. It is a difficult task but it has to be undertaken in the interest of a better agricultural economy and improved living conditions of a vast majority of rural population which lives on subsistence level. Improvement of village economy will lead to an overall growth of GDP and national economy. l

Crop Insurance is not a new idea inour country. The first attempt to initiate crop insurance was made in the 1970s.

Since then several attempts have been made in this direction. Pilot Crop Insurance Scheme (PCIS), the first attempt in this direction in the years 1979-1984 covered food crops, oilseeds, cotton and potato; and was confined to loanee farmers on a voluntary basis. The scheme was implemented in 13 states and covered 6.3 lakh farmers, for a premium of Rs. 196.95 lakhs and paid claims of Rs. 157.05 lakhs. Then in the years 1985-99 the Comprehensive Crop Insurance Scheme ( CCIS) was launched and made compulsory for loanee farmers. Premium rates were as low as 2% of the sum

(Aprna Mathur, a management faculty, is doing her Ph.D in “Crop Insurance� at Jammu State University.)

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AFGHANISTAN

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AFGHANISTAN AND THE NEW GREAT GAME BY : Mahmood Hasan

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he security situation in Afghanistan is getting worse by the day. Almost every week there are terrorist attacks on government installations or civilians with large number of casualties. As the civil war continues and number of deaths rise, Western and regional stakeholders are deeply worried and realigning themselves in Afghanistan.

The casualty figures in 2017 so far are indeed quite worrying.

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) report released in April 25, 2017 disclosed that in the first quarter of 2017 (Jan-Mar) it documented 2,181 civilian casualties — 715 dead and 1,466 injured. In another report compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management (ICM) at least 240 civilians have been killed in Afghanistan between April 1 and June 9, 2017. The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) released figures that between January 1, 2017 and February 24, 2017 at least 804 of the Afghan National Defense Security Forces (ANDSF) were killed and 1,328 wounded.

Besieged and exasperated Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said at least 20 different international terrorist groups were operating inside the country. The most prominent but opposing groups are the Afghan Taliban and the Islamic State. The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) welcomed disgruntled Taliban fighters in its ranks and have become a dangerous force.

ISKP emerged simultaneously as US forces began withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2015. It has drastically changed the strategic landscape and war dynamics in Afghanistan as regional alliances began shifting. What is baffling is that ISKP and Taliban are contesting to gain control of territory. The Afghan government controlled over 71 percent of territory in January 2016. It now controls only 60 percent of the territory. The “contested areas” increased from 23 percent in January 2016 to 29 percent in February 2017.

While Taliban-controlled areas are scattered, the ISKP is in control of areas in northern Afghanistan.

The Taliban's declared political agenda is to drive out all foreign troops and regain state power it lost following US invasion in 2001.

It does not have any ambitions beyond Afghanistan. But ISKP is trying to expand its fundamentalist contagion in Central Asia and the South Asian region.

Pakistan's ISI created the Taliban and has used it to destabilise the “unfriendly” governments in Kabul. Pakistan, having deep

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strategic interest in Afghanistan, always played a double game with Kabul through its influence over the Taliban. But now Pakistan is faced with a bigger enemy — the Islamic State.

Afghanistan-Pakistan-India relations are an extremely complicated narrative. India has always tried to reach Afghanistan over the head of Pakistan and develop close strategic relations with Kabul. In May 2017, Delhi offered USD 1 billion to Kabul as economic assistance. However, India is the only major power that does not have any communication channel with the Taliban or ISKP. Tentative US attempts to contact the Taliban in the past have not produced any positive results. Even after 16 years of Operation Enduring Freedom there is no peace in sight.

Despite all the tall talk President Donald Trump has not come out with a strategy on resolving the Afghan conflict.

At a Senate hearing on June 13, 2017 US Defence Secretary James Mattis said, “We are not winning in Afghanistan right now.” US Commander General John Nicholson described the situation in an Orwellian phrase, “The war in Afghanistan is at a 'stalemate'.” Trump however, authorised Mattis to increase the level of troops and US is sending additional 4,000 troops to break the stalemate.

Russia, after being ousted from the country in 1988, has developed links with the Taliban. Moscow has always called Taliban a terrorist organisation and supported the Northern Alliance. But now with the presence of ISIL, Russia has changed its position, primarily because it does not want Central Asian Republics to come under the influence of ISKP extremism. Russia is said to be supplying arms to the Taliban. One wonders whether these are to undermine US mission in Afghanistan or to contain ISKP. Evidently, Moscow does not want to lose out in case the Taliban capture Kabul.

Though (Shiite) Iran supports the Ashraf Ghani government, it has also developed clandestine links over the past few years with the Taliban. The presence of (Sunni) ISKP on its borders is bad news for Tehran. Besides, Iran has always opposed US presence in Afghanistan, but since the Taliban fights US forces it is only natural that Tehran would maintain links with the Taliban. China while assisting Kabul in fighting terrorism has maintained links with the Taliban. China wants to help resolve the conflict as it has invested billions of dollars in Afghanistan and Pakistan. l

ENTERTAINMENT

KHUSHI AUDITIONED FOR A DANCE REALITY SHOW?

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ridevi’s older daughter Janhvi Kapoor has been in the news about her Bollywood debut. As per reports, Janhvi has signed a three-film contract with one of the most celebrated directors in the industry Karan Johar. Even though these reports haven't been confirmed by any of the respective parties, rumours still seem to be doing the rounds. While very little is known about the 'Mom' actress' younger daughter Khushi Kapoor, a news recently revealed that she auditioned for a renowned dance reality show titled 'Dance Plus 3'. A source revealed to a leading daily, " Last month, auditions for 'Dance Plus 3' were held in Mumbai, and one of the contestants was Khushi.

But nobody knew who she was. It was only after she made it to the top 35 that the makers realised who she was as she had to fill her resume. " Khushi Kapoor did not use her celebrity status to her advantage to get into the competition and did not reveal her background until the makers found out on their own. She made sure that that moves ahead in the competition with her talent and not the name. l

'LIPSTICK UNDER MY BURKHA' TO OPEN FILM FEST IN MELBOURNE

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lankrita Shrivastavas 'Lipstick Under My Burkha', which was deemed too "lady oriented" by India's censor board, will be the opening movie at the 2017 Indian Film Festival of Melbourne (IFFM). The director is ecstatic about the film being a part of the fest, which is to be held from August 10-22. "It is a great honour that 'Lipstick Under My Burkha' will be opening the Indian Film Festival of Melbourne. While the film has travelled to many parts of the world, it will be screened in Australia for the first time.

I am really looking forward to the reaction of the Australian audience," Shrivastava said in a statement. "Breaking through the cacophony of mainstream Indian cinema, it is wonderful that there is an Australian film festival that highlights independent Indian cinematic voices. Independent films are telling important stories, challenging the status quo and are important artistic expressions. I'm delighted to participate in the festival," she added. l

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HUMA QURESHI’S INTERNATIONAL FILM STRIKES A DEAL

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ctors Huma Qureshi's first Hollywood film, 'Viceroy's House' released few months back. From critical acclaim to audience appreciation at various film festivals, the film received it all. And now the film has bagged another opportunity. 'Viceroy's House' has been picked up by one of the leading independent distributors in the US. The deal was struck at the recent Cannes film festival. Well with this feather added to Huma's cap, the actress is hoping it opens up avenues in Hollywood and she gets noticed.l

ANURAG ON KISHORE KUMAR’S BIOPIC

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nurag Basu is populating his upcoming musical-spy movie starring Ranbir Kapoor and Katrina Kaif. After facing indefinite delays in the release, the movie will finally release on July 14th. Being one of the most ambitious directors in Bollywood, Anurag has announced yet another project which is a biopic on the legendary playback singer-cum-actor-cumproducer- cum-music composer Kishore Kumar.

While Anurag Basu plans to start working on the biopic. l

OMG! KATRINA KAIF'S SMOULDERING INSTAGRAM PICTURES

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or someone who had to be coaxed into joining the social media bandwagon, Katrina Kaif seems to have taken to it like fish to water. Be it sizzling pictures of herself or pictures from her film’s set, the actress is often seen sharing interesting posts on Instagram. The ‘Jagga Jasoos’ actress recently took to the photo sharing platform and posted a picture where she’s seen donning a red floral dress with her hair left open. She went unnatural on the face and was all smiles for the camera as she posed for the pretty picture. Kat is currently busy promoting her upcoming film, ‘Jagga Jasoos’ opposite ex-beau Ranbir Kapoor.l

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INDIA PLAYS A BIG ROLE GLOBALLY?

LAST WORD

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merica is now out of Paris treaty. A country which could have played a vital role to save the environment and climate of the globe is now vanished due to shortsightedness of its leader. Every country has rights to measure its dimensions according to its requirements.

But when you work for a global issue like environment, you should always be ready for humanity as well the decisions taken by the predecessor. Denying its role on a big platform probably America wants to keep himself into a particular, concise arena. It is an international platform where there has been a race always to grab the opportunities, sometimes created by others due to their narrowness. Russia, china, France may fill this gap easily. Even when India claims its historic efforts in the field of saving the climate, one can understand a strong message that sooner or later India will have a key to control the globe, a leadership will arise and accepted by all but before India plays a big role globally, it should not forget its domestic fronts too. Unemployment, poverty, un-education, caste based reservations and so many more vibrant issues are to be addressed. But it is good been several difficulties faced by the Indian politicians, they have a broad vision never contract themselves like a Trump. l

BY : Manoj Bisaria

also shameful when Kamar Bajwa danced with his troop by showing a victory sign. What do they want to convey? I believe, it was a message to Pak people that their strength of defense cannot defeat india at any cost. Probably, the victory in cricket may minimize their pain which has be chronic now. Secondly, social media has also played a provoking role where the Indian cricketer were portrayed like villains. On all the platforms of social media only leg pulling remarks were on top. Many dirty jokes and provoking slogans were on top.

Victory and defeat are part of any game so take it easy. We should not forget that our players have made a great contribution to this gentlemen game. Well, if we have a defeat this time, next time we will capture the crown again. Be a positive and sportive Indian always after all we are different from across the border. l

PAKISTAN IS LIKE A SILLY BOY

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REVENGE, HATRED AND ANGER

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hat is wrong if the Indian team lost its match with Pakistan. Cricket is considered as gentlemen play always but now due to heavy commercial advertisements and a mammoth flow of revenue have made this game into a war game where every player fights as though battling in a war.

The spirit of healthy environment is vanished. Now only revenge, hatred and anger flow between the two country. It was also unfortunate when the Indian going back to pavilion had to face derogatory remarks from the pak supporters. It is

akistan is like a silly boy who always gets a slap after committing a mistake.

Every time he commits not to repeat any mistakes in future but being a dunce he does the same always. Now the firing on borders is still on, every time a soldier dies on both sides. When a soldier dies in order to save his nation, he becomes a martyr while when he attacks to snatch others liberty, peace and happiness, he does a work of a devil. Unfortunately Pak has been practicing this policy since its birth. Now the water level became so high that a flood may emerge at any moment. A lust for Kashmir may ruin Pak forever. However hard he may try to catch the attention of other nations but now a clear message has spread all over the globe about his indulgence into the field of terrorism. It is a open truth of funding his role to nurture a tree of terrorism, a land of militants where all get a shelter to hide and attack. l

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RNI TITLE CODE : DELENG19447