SPRING & SUMMER INSIGHT & MARKET UPDATE 2023 BY
Overview Preface
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
3
UK Eating Out Market
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
4
Insight Wheel
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
5
Enhancing Value
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
6
Think Premium
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
7
Be a Specialist
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
9
Quality-Led
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
11
Care
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
13
Education
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
14
Hospitality
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
15
Concept in Focus
………………………………………………………………………………………..
16
Commodity Report
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
17
Dates for the Diary
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
18
References
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
19
Sector News
Preface
Fancy a development day with our Food Innovation Team? Get in touch with your Creed contact to arrange a day.
Welcome to the second of our 2023 Insight & Market updates. We started the year with trends focused on sustainability and health and whilst these are still prevalent, we are slowly bringing in ways of enhancing the perceived value for your customers. With Easter and the King’s Coronation kickstarting our spring calendars, summer is just around the corner – bringing refreshed menus, dining al fresco and school holidays – making this an exciting time for chefs and catering teams.
Rob Owen Executive Business Development Chef
Research from Lumina Intelligence (May 2023), shows that consumer confidence has increased to the highest point since February 2022, as assurances with personal finances have benefited from a slightly positive general economic outlook as well as warmer weather bringing bank holidays and less pressure on energy bills. Nevertheless, recent research has found that ‘value for money’ is still the most important factor for consumers (Feed it Back, 2023) with the average price of a meal consumed out of home increasing by 8% over the past 12 months. This indicates that now more than ever, customers are wanting more for what they are purchasing, and
Joseph Oliver Business Development Chef
with food costs increasing for operators, it is those little wins that will help customers justify the spend. As our Insight & Innovation team we continue to challenge ourselves so that we can bring you, our customers the latest consumer insight trends whilst showing how these can be actionable and translate into recipes, communications and ultimately help with your ways of working. The following insights and market trends have been compiled by us and from key industry data partners.
Anna Clapson Insights Manager
UK Eating Out Market Report 2023 By Lumina Intelligence
The total eating out market is
Consumers are prioritising special
Future market growth will be
forecast for growth of +4.6% in
occasions, on the go and necessity
driven by evolving, premium and
2023, to reach a value of
visits,
experience-driven formats,
£95.2billion.
as value scrutiny increases (to 77%,
as cost of living pressures forecast to
Aided by high inflation and slowly
+4ppts YoY) whilst delivery has taken
ease from 2024, contributing to
improving volumes, as well as key
a back seat in 2023 with the delivery
more discretionary spending &
calendar events as additional
market declining by 1.5ppts YoY to
investments in formats & products
opportunities to boost sales
12% of total market share
to enhance trading occasions
Lumina Intelligence, UK Eating Out Market Report, May 2023
Insight Wheel For 2023, the Insights & Innovation team has put together our Insight Wheel. This focuses on the key themes that we see are overarching within food & drink, whether that is consumed in a care home setting or enjoyed in your local restaurant. We have organised our 17 key buzzwords within three key themes that are dictating and driving conversations in the current climate, these are:
Do Better, Feel Better
Enhancing Value
A Welcome Escape
Collectively, these trends work in tandem, whilst some buzzwords might be more or less prevalent depending the operation. This wheel forms the basis of our innovation and drives us to help create solutions to support you, our customers.
Enhancing Value We’re halfway through 2023 and whilst recent figures have indicated that food inflation fell ever so slightly in May (15.7% to 15.4%), caution still needs to be present so as not to hamper this early progress. One way that we can support our customers is by advising on Enhancing Value. It is important to note that this does not only refer to low ticket purchases but also to the added extras that you can give to your customers to increase perceived value for money. To help dive deeper into this, the following sections will focus on Think Premium, Be a Specialist and Quality-Led supported with recipes & top tips from our development chef team.
Think Premium
Be a Specialist
Quality-Led
Enhancing Value: Think Premium ‘Premiumisation’ is a common theme used within food and drink, and with an increase in cost conversations, providing customers with those premium elements that are harder to replicate at home is a valuable selling point. We’re seeing that everyday favourites are being elevated with premium ingredients and enticing menu descriptions to inject elevation into menus and leave customers feeling satisfied. This can be translated with relatively simple wins such as adding toppings to classic staples, such as seeds and croutons to soup, or changing a winter slaw to a slightly lighter summer version. ‘Theatre’ and shared experience also add a premium touch to the dining experience with dishes such as sharing cheese fondues and a roast dinner sharing platter. Data shows that more operators are introducing premium side dishes to drive spend and give customers an added extra when deciding on their purchase. Premium plate presentation, seasonal ingredients and scratch cooking are a focus across all sectors.
Examples of Think Premium Café Nero launched a new single-origin coffee blend available to customers – when communicating this change, Nero focussed on the flavours and taste profiles Care UK shows examples of plate presentation, as residents are presented a menu and served a beautifully crafted plate of food Counter and product presentation reinforces a premium offering. We’re increasingly seeing linear lines in display to evoke feelings of care and precision
Enhancing Value: Think Premium Be forensic on your product list, by looking at individual components – do they deliver what they needs to? It is about the whole dish, but to get there
If you love a crispy onion ring you will love this recipe – a blooming onion is perfect for adding a premium nod to a menu classic
you need the premium ingredients. However, be commercially minded as premium does come with a cost – find the sweet spot where it adds value but translates well to sales
Rob Owen Executive Business Development Chef
Need inspiration for incorporating this trend? Read our Top Tips below:
The classic, simple wins are just as good – take a delicious chocolate cake all year round and change the chocolate accessories to top based on seasons i.e. mini eggs, chocolate orange segments etc Our new premium Stonehouse butchery range is the perfect addition to include weekly or a monthly special. The range consists of dry-aged beef and game offering you a premium centre of plate. Fancy a development day with our Development Chef Team? Get in touch with your Creed contact to arrange a day!
Click the image above or scan the QR code to view
Enhancing Value: Be a Specialist A consumer behaviour that we are increasingly seeing is the affinity to operators offering a ‘specialist’ unique selling point – this does not mean that you have to lead the next social media trend - but simply ‘what do you want your customers to know, and keep coming back to you for?’ From creating the perfect patisserie, or offering a flavoursome full-bodied coffee blend, right through to the service you provide and a welcoming community spirit, there are many things that can make you stand out and keep your customers coming back for more. With food prices increasing and money not going as far as it once did, consumers are being more selective on where to spend their money. Sectors such as education, pubs and contract catering contend with competition from high street food to-go specialists, who are often geared up to focus on one cuisine or product. This is where pop-up concepts or an outdoor cooking space can really come into it’s own.
Examples of Be a Specialist Le Deli Robuchon – a viral sensation on social media where a London deli were known for creating filled and topped Cube Croissants Franco Manca has expanded quickly in the UK – known for offering fresh, quality and crafted sourdough Neapolitan pizza Within Care, caterers and chefs need to be specialists in dishes that follow the IDDSI framework. This gives confidence to residents and their families
Enhancing Value: Be a Specialist The key to being a specialist is to pick one thing – don’t be a specialist across the board. The
Be known for a ‘pimped up’ classic! – why not try Joe’s crème filled croissants recipe using ready to bake croissants and filling with a variety of flavours
trick is to truly master and craft your specialism – whether
that is product or service based.
Communicating this message is important and social media can be a great driver for this. Joseph Oliver Business Development Chef
Need inspiration for incorporating this trend? Read our Top Tips below:
Be sure to communicate what your brand stands for and what you want to be known for in your marketing messaging This doesn’t just have to be food – being known for a great service or being a hub for the community sets yourself apart for customers.
Fancy a development day with our Development Chef Team? Get in touch with your Creed contact to arrange a day!
Click the image above or scan the QR code to view
Enhancing Value: Quality-Led Quality is an important key driver within food and drink, with 57% of consumers paying more attention to high-quality and trusted ingredients when purchasing food and drink out of home (FMCG Gurus, 2022). Examples of this include using and highlighting seasonal produce as well as including nods to provenance of certain key ingredients such as butchery. Latest data from Lumina Intelligence reports that 86% of consumers think that good quality has a price with 75% of those happy to pay more for a higher quality. Using cooking techniques such as ‘slow roasted’ or ‘charred’ are appearing more on menus descriptors to demonstrate depth of flavour
Examples of Quality - Led Hawksmoor – known for ‘perfect’ British steak’ use the rounded price point to reinforce quality of products
Six by Nico offer a 6-course tasting menu that changes every 6 weeks. The aim behind this is to offer a quality offering at accessible prices.
and texture of food, thus creating a ‘high-quality’ dish. It has been reported that pubs and restaurants are using the £X.00 price point for the most expensive menu items, as this communicates confidence and quality to justify a rounded and higher price point.
Frosts Garden Centre menus use descriptors across their menus to convey how items have been cooked
Enhancing Value: Quality-Led Chefs and caterers across all sectors are looking for quality, especially with products that they are typically paying more for such as butchery
Our new Stonehouse 21 day dry aged beef is perfect for adding a quality-led proposition to your menu – scan the QR code for an indepth look at our new steaks.
and fresh produce. The quality that you buy reflects the overall dish and customers are now expecting more as prices are increases. Rob Owen Executive Business Development Chef
Need inspiration for incorporating this trend? Read our Top Tips below:
Add descriptors to your menus or marketing messages around the locality of your butchery items as more consumers are looking for provenance claims as an indication of quality. Where possible buy products that are in season and produced in the UK, it’s difficult to do this 100%, however, quality will be better and consumers can identify a seasonal menu which in turn adds value to your business.
Fancy a development day with our Development Chef Team? Get in touch with your Creed contact to arrange a day!
Click the image above or scan the QR code to view
In The News: Care KAM Media has published a report highlighting The Golden Years generation, exploring the attitudes and behaviours of those that are aged 65 aged+. It is projected that by 2066 there will be around 20.4million UK residents aged 65 years and over, making up over a quarter of the total population (26%) and 5.1 million people aged 85 years and over, making up a further 7%. These age groups combined have been coined ‘The Golden Years’. Almost half of Golden Years say that they are eating healthier now than 10 years ago as 75% describe their diet as healthy, with 17% of those surveyed following a flexitarian diet. A recent option poll was issued in Care Home Catering magazine discussing plant-based and vegan meals within the care home setting. There are an
In other news… click the links to read more “Grant scheme launched for care sector”
estimated 350,000 people aged 65+ in the UK who follow a vegetarian or vegan diet – 7,000 of these live in care homes. Whilst individuals choose this diet for a number of reasons, the study shows that there has been a shift in dietary needs in residential care homes as more are opting for a meat-free diet for environmental, ethical, and health reasons such as reducing heart disease, high cholesterol or type 2 diabetes
“Knight Frank predicts bounce-back for health and care sector in 2023”
In The News: Education The rise in food costs is still a big concern for the Education sector as more research has been published by LACA, which has found that school caterers are ‘increasingly concerned’ by the rising costs, difficult supply chains, food shortages, and substitutions that they are witnessing on a weekly basis. As it stands the Universal Infant Free School Meals budget is £2.41 and £2.47 for benefit-based Free School Meals. Sector professionals estimate that if these costs had kept up with inflation, the price of a school meal would be £2.87 – which sits at least 40p higher than the current budget. As a way to mitigate costs, some caterers are substituting lentils and beans for meat and poultry in an attempt to keep costs low. Cost is one thing, but
In other news… click the links to read more “AHDB food programme delivers impactful education to UK school children”
supply shortages are another concern, as 77% of respondents said they had changed their menus because of supply chain issues, whilst 26% had cut back on choice. Since November, caterers have seen a 20% increase in food costs, on top of the increases witnessed last year.
New Report – Footprint Intelligence – Sustainability in Schools
In The News: Hospitality Encouraging news for the hospitality sector this quarter as latest figures from the CGA by NIQ and Fourth Business Confidence Survey, show that more than half (54%) of business leaders in the UK feel optimistic about the future of their businesses over the next year. Whilst the percentage is still behind pre-pandemic levels, it is a 7% increase from outlooks in January 2023. This is extremely encouraging to see the positive position, despite the continued issues of product costs, labour shortages and high energy bills still a concern for business leaders. The Grocer published an article stating that the traditional English Breakfast is now (on average) 19% more expensive than 12-months ago. All items on a
In other news… click the links to read more “King’s Coronation to generate £2.6 billion for UK hospitality sector”
classic plate have had two-digit inflation, with eggs (41%), hashbrowns (37%), and baked beans (32%) topping the list. “QSR occasions rise as diners seek inexpensive meal options”
Concepts in Focus Greggs has been permitted a late-night opening at their flagship Leicester Square store, allowing the QSR brand to open until 2am from Thursday – Saturday and midnight through the rest of the week. It did not come without opposition, as the council initially fought the new hours stating that it may become a ‘hotspot for crime’, however, Greggs stated they wanted it to be a place for late-night revellers and evening workers. In a time of customisation, Heinz has announced that it is looking to release a ‘Remix Machine’ that offers condiments just how you like them. This style machine is known within soft drink category but, offering more than 200 sauce combinations is not so common. Customers will be asked for a base (ketchup, BBQ etc) and then add enhancers, such as buffalo, mango, chipotle. It is still in its pilot stage, but initial points of interest are in stadiums, cinemas, and destination leisure sites. Have you ever noticed food tasting different based on the music you are listening to? Researchers from Örebro University in Sweden have done just that and have found that higher tones tend to make sweet flavours taste even sweeter, whilst low-pitch tones make sweet more bitter. They have suggested that this could be used by chefs, caterers and manufacturers to create healthier dishes with reduced salt or by adding less sugar to sweet treats and desserts – all you need is a good playlist!
Summer Commodity Report We are starting to see some product areas which are contributing to a much more ‘normal’ food/agricultural balance of play. Areas such as shipping, energy, dairy, some edible oils and durum wheat for example are reducing albeit from record high levels. This can also be seen in a retail environment with some key lines being reduced in price (milk, bread, etc). Global supply chains do seem to be improving, in part down to greater capacity in the container market. We are not out of the woods yet though. There is still overall inflation year on year across the marketplace and some politicians are starting to make a noise around so-called ‘greedflation’ where they are accusing supermarkets and multinational producers of not reacting quickly enough to any falls in commodity pricing. ‘Quick to go up and not so quick to come down.’ Some of these markets remain at record levels and the high prices may make it attractive to plant/grow/harvest certain crops, so longer term we may see some boom-and-bust cycles in certain product areas or as farmers alternate between interchangeable crops year by year.
CLICK HERE FOR THE SUMMER COMMODITY REPORT 2023
Dates for the Diary JULY 1 – 31 July
Baked Bean Month
7 July
World Chocolate Day
10 July
Pina Colada Day
16 July
National Cherry Day
19 July
Hot Dog Day
27 July
National Crème Brulee Day
29 July 30 July
AUGUST
SEPTEMBER 1-30 September
Sourdough September
1-30 September
Organic September
1 – 7 September
Love Lamb Week
1 September
National Tofu Day
4-8 September
Zero Waste Week
5 September
Cheese Pizza Day
National Lemon Juice Day
5 – 11 September
Cake Week UK
National Burger day
7 September
World Salami Day
16 Sept – 1 Oct
British Food Fortnight
20 September
World Paella Day
21 September
National Chai Day
23 September
National Bacon Butty Day
29 September
Macmillan Coffee Morning
7- 13 August
Afternoon Tea Week
9 August
Swiss Roll Day
9 August
National Rice Pudding Day
11 August
National Bakewell Tart Day
22 August
World Plant Milk Day
International Chicken Wing Day
29 August
International Cheesecake Day
31 August
References thefoodpeople Food & Beverage Trends 2022/2023 Thefoodpeople foodwatching May 2023 Lumina Intelligence UK Eating Out Report 2023 KAM Media CGA Menu & Trends Report 2022 Feed it Back, Driving Value & Pricing for Profit in 2023 Public Sector Catering, June 2023 Care Home Catering, Summer 2023 BBC News, Education The Guardian The Times
To find out more, please contact our Insights Manager: annaclapson@creedfoodservice.co.uk