Creed Commodity Report Spring 2024

Outlook Contents

New Brexit food checks will test Britain’s supply chains

UK

shop inflation sticks at 4.3% despite lower food price rises

Whilst food inflation has slowed down in general, there remains some key factors weighing on the next 6-12 months. Certainly, it is expected that container prices, which have already increased, will soon feed through into finished goods price increases (on affected products). There are reports of shipping companies increasing container prices even on products not originally travelling via the affected Red Sea route.

Brexit is still hanging over food prices, with increased red tape and possible physical checks on ‘medium-risk’ products coming into place this year. Some reports suggest this could add up to £300m on to the cost of goods due to the additional certificates, vet checks and customs documents.

The situation on food prices could also be affected by on-going demand and disposable income remains squeezed as consumers deal with high-interest rates and much higher utilities than they are used to.

As things stand today, the food inflation levels of 15% + have passed, the levels are now lower into single digits and perhaps under 5-6% overall moving forward. This doesn’t mean overall prices are falling (although they are in some categories) it simply means prices are rising at a lower rate.

It certainly looks to be another interesting year for food prices with geopolitical issues and weather concerns being the main drivers.

Inflation

The Consumer Price Index, including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), rose by 4.2% in the 12 months to December 2023.

The largest downward contribution to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates came from food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Core CPIH (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 5.2% in the 12 months to December 2023, the same rate as in November.

Inflation prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 8.0% in the year to December 2023 according to the ONS. However, it is at the lowest rate since April 2022.

The easing in the inflation rate was driven by prices for the milk, cheese and eggs category rising at a slower rate than the same time in 2022. This was helped by prices falling for a variety of products including low-fat milk, yoghurt, cheese and eggs.

However, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose around 26% in 2023, despite this better news. Bear in mind that in the last 10 years, prices only rose by 9% in total in these areas.

Exchange Rates Energy

The British Pound could come under further pressure against the U.S. Dollar over the coming days amidst an ongoing reassessment of Federal Reserve policy and concerns centered around the strength of the UK economy.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate lost half a per cent in value last week, but we note the pair has proven incredibly resilient in the past five weeks. In fact, it has not closed below $1.26 over these past five weeks, nor has it closed above $1.275, hopefully now it is showing some stability.

The Pound has risen in value against the Euro since the turn of the year. It currently stands at €1.17 compared to €1.15 on the 1 January 2024. This is mainly being driven by expectation that the Bank of England will be one of the last major central banks to reduce interest rates.

Furthermore, inflation forecasts are expected to be lowered as inflation has fallen faster than the Bank’s November forecasts suggested.

Energy Price Cap increased 5% in January 2024

The Energy Price Cap increased 5% in January 2024 to £1,928 a year, based on a typical household who use dual fuel. This was the first increase after the 2 previous drops in Q3 & Q4 2023.

That said, the news is not all bad. If the forecasts are to be believed, there is to be a 6% drop in Q2, followed by a further 1% drop in Q3. Q4 2024 is predicted to rise by 2%, however trying to predict so far into the future is difficult, so this is subject to change.

In the medium term, we’re unlikely to see prices return to the levels we saw before the energy crisis

Source: Money Saving Expert

Shipping

WORLD CONTAINER INDEX

The latest Drewry WCI composite index of $3,964 per 40ft container is the highest since October 2022 and is 179% more than average 2019 (pre-pandemic) rates of $1,420.

The average composite index for the year-to-date is $3,371 per 40ft container, which is $690 higher than the 10-year average rate of $2,681 (which was inflated by the exceptional 2020-22 Covid period).

The Red Sea and Suez Canal are the shipping links between Europe and Asia/East Africa, and every year around 30% of global container traffic passes through the waterway.

Since mid-November, the Houthi group in Yemen have been launching attacks and attempting to seize cargo vessels in the Red Sea in response to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Following the attacks, many governments deployed military vessels to the Red Sea to protect the commercial liners, but another vessel was struck by a missile. Many of the shipping lines are understandably now reconsidering this position and have announced they will be re-routing around the African continent for the foreseeable future to ensure the safety of their crew, vessels and cargo on board.

Fuel

The RAC believes prices on the nation’s forecourts should be lower still if the big four supermarkets were taking fairer, smaller margins. Instead, in December the average supermarket margin on a litre of fuel was 13p which is more than double the amount taken in 2021.

The Competitions and Markets Authority (CMA) have just awarded powers to monitor road fuel prices and report any signs of malpractice to the Government. The new report from the CMA has already tasked the retailers to reduce prices, aiming to make the cost of fuel fairer for drivers. Any company that fails to comply, could face receiving a fixed fine of up to 1% of their Worldwide turnover or an on-going fine of up to 5% of the daily turnover.

IS THERE A LINK BETWEEN FUEL PRICES AND INFLATION?

As the RAC chart below shows, there is a clear link between fuel prices and inflation. In its own bulletins the Office for National Statistics ONS called out falling fuel prices as the main reason for a reduction in the headline inflation rate.

So higher oil – and in turn petrol and diesel – prices can contribute to higher levels of inflation. The inverse is also true.

Unleaded 140.03p 163.42p ↓ Fall

Diesel 147.82p 172.37p ↓ Fall

Super unleaded 155.83p ↓ Fall

LPG 95.80p

Key Commodity Pricing

Dairy

MILK

Many dairy producers will start to receive a higher milk price in the New Year after several milk processors committed to the rises.

Farmgate milk prices were on a downward trajectory for most of 2023, with values roughly 15p/litre below where they were this time last year.

However, dairy commodity markets have been improving throughout the autumn and some processors, including Arla, Barbers and Saputo, have started to announce the first significant milk price rises for more than a year.

Cheesemaker Barber’s reported that the forward momentum in dairy markets has been fueled by the reduced milk production across the UK, EU and US.

“It is good to see cheesemakers contributing to farmgate milk price increases, especially after cheddar markets had been struggling. These price moves could also encourage increases by other milk processors in February. Cost of production for dairy producers remains high and margins continue to be tight on farms, with some sill in a loss-making position.”

Ian Powell, Managing Director, The Dairy Group

Farmgate milk prices set to rise in 2024 after months of lows

Milk prices forecast to return to above 40p/litre by summer

BUTTER & CREAM

Butter prices have risen at the start of the year, with reported short availability, especially on salted, which in some cases is commanding a higher price than unsalted, this is very unusual and purely supply/demand related.

The UK bulk cream price is anywhere between £2.05/kg and £2.10/kg with European prices around £2.15/kg.

The bulk traded butter price is the second highest (after 2021) in the last 10 years, which does truly cement that average butter prices are significantly higher than a number of years ago.

Generally, there seems to be a wait and see approach to butter due to uncertainty around supply and demand plus what the current market will allow.

A recent report from the PTF suggests – ‘The cheddar market is benefitting from a definite fall in cheese stocks, with sellers becoming more and more bullish as a result.

One trader said that some cheddar makers have put their mild prices up to as high as £3700 and their mature prices up to £3850, but others say that the prices aren’t there yet. AHDB’s £3510 mild cheddar listing for December certainly won’t help them push onwards and upwards.

But manufacturers who reported this week certainly weren’t tempted to sell cheddar as low as that, given the prospects, and pointed to a relatively healthy curd price of €4100, or £3500, as evidence that the mild price should be around £3650.

That’s the midpoint of the PTF price. Curd demand seems to be very strong still, which will again play into seller’s hands.’

MOZZARELLA

Mozzarella prices rose in the final quarter of 2023 by around 10-12% but have since started the year more stable with trade reported as slow. That said some brands have still increased for February, perhaps delayed price increases from Q4.

BRIE & GOATS LOG

HALLOUMI

Halloumi prices look to have steadied out and this is partly due to a good stock position in Cyprus There is still a lot of product, which doesn’t meet the ongoing definition of Halloumi (minimum % levels of sheep and goats’ milk) and was produced prior to the EU ruling. Generally, the pricing is due to go flat in the middle of the year and we may even see some increases when stocks dry up. Both Brie & Goats Log have seen small material increases in recent months. There aren’t any predicted market changes in the near future other than increased competition to drive prices down.

GRANA PADANO

Grana Padano prices look to have steadied and this has been reflected on the pricing we have seen on the Q1 tender. Italian Milk has increased in price so next quarter we are likely to see increases. The graph shows the historical pricing of grana Padano and of course its current high levels.

EGGS

Grana Padano is a cheese originating in the Po River Valley in northern Italy and is registered as a Protected Designation of Origin (PDO), since 1996. Due to its production process, Grana Padano is naturallylactose-free.

Egg prices saw a small drop at the end of Q3 and beginning of Q4 2023 however that was short lived when prices started to rise again and whilst retail continue to take priority on Egg supplies, foodservice and processing markets are being hit harder with shortages.

The Central Egg Agency states that there are “a few more free-range eggs available” but they put this down to the seasonality, as demand tends to be lower at this time of the year. Whilst the latest chick placings figures show that the laying flock is approx. 1.5m birds larger than it was in August, this is still down by 3m birds compared with November 2021.

Pricing remains around £1 per dozen more expensive than this time last year (approx. 39%) and this is expected to continue to rise.

In addition, eggs from outdoor hens moved into barns during outbreaks of avian flu will still be labelled free range under new rules to cut costs for farmers being drawn up by the government.

Under current regulations, eggs from birds that are moved indoors during avian influenza outbreaks can be classed as free range for a maximum of 16 weeks before they have to be labelled barn eggs. Defra has said that the changes can be costly for producers, potentially driving up the cost of eggs for consumers, and wants to extend the grace period indefinitely, until the flu outbreak is over.

Meat & Poultry

EU beef and lamb market update: tighter supplies support prices

TURKEY INCREASED SHOPPING TRIPS

All other meat centerpieces were in growth compared to both 2019 and 2022.

BEEF

Pig pricing in general has fallen slightly in recent weeks.

The Dutch pig price often used as a benchmark in bacon pricing has shown a modest decline since the start of the year.

This is quite commonplace at this time of year and of course pricing is being talked up from around March time onwards.

It is worth noting that the pig price for this time of year is historically quite high in relation to other years.

Poultry pricing, especially from the EU, remains on a bit of a knife-edge. Lower cost Eastern European product has led to falling fresh pricing throughout last year, however, it is being questioned what impact increased physical checks will have on product originating in one country, being packed in another and how easy this will be for veterinary certificates given the complex supply chains involved. Chicken remains a cost- effective protein in comparison to some other meat products.

EU cattle prices have grown in recent weeks, as supplies remain tight. The GB premium to Irish steers sits at 77p.

Beef production is in general decline from last year, particularly in Italy, Spain, and France.

Sheep prices have grown in recent weeks, with Spanish lambs gaining large ground.

Production in key countries has fallen, providing strength to prices.

Beef production is in general decline in the EU, with large declines from last year When comparing the total of the first three quarters, production in Spain and France has fallen by 7% and 4% respectively. Italy has continued its decline in production, with a fall of over 100,000 tonnes (-20%) from the first three quarters of 2022 to 2023. Industry reports suggest that poor grazing quality and conditions, coupled with high feed costs have limited production through lower carcase weights.

Christmas Summary

Total volumes rose by 6.4%, and after a slump in sales in 2022 due to the impact of avian flu, turkey volumes bounced back, rising by 29% year on year for whole turkeys and by 0.8% for turkey crowns and joints, according to analysis of Kantar data by AHDB.

Whole turkey and crowns/joints accounted for 7.5% of total meat, fish and poultry volumes and 31.9% of Christmas centerpiece volumes in the two weeks to Christmas, showing it was still the UK’s favorite roasting joint.

CHRISTMAS 2023 meat volume change PORK ROASTING GAMMON

Pork roasting joints and gammon performed strongly. Pork saw volumes up 16.8% year on year and by 35.1% on 2019 levels, while gammon saw volumes climb by 4.9% year on year and by 14.2% on 2019 levels.

This growth was potentially explained by the fact the two categories were the next cheapest roasting cuts to poultry available.

Both beef (up 11.4% year on year and up 32.8% on 2019) and lamb roasting joints (up 32.8% year on year and 55.5% versus 2019) also saw strong performance, which drove most of the year-onyear growth across the categories.

Fish

COD & HADDOCK

Russian caught Cod processed in China saw price softening in Q4 of 2023, reaching similar pricing to that of Q2 2022 However, there was a sharp increase (approximately 8%) in the beginning of January with a softening towards the end of the month.

After a sizeable increase at the beginning of Q4, Russian caught Haddock processed in China pricing declined, however it is again back on the rise, but down around 3% versus that Q4 high.

The USA tightened sanctions at the end of 2023, which bans any fish caught in Russian waters or by Russian Flagged vessels being imported into the country, including that which was processed in China. This forced Russian producers’ hands to sell products as sizeable discounts on the Global Market.

It’s quite enormous: market punishes Norwegian salmon over price-fixing ruling

SALMON

Q4 2023 saw prices rise, as it usually does due around the festive season and then a drop at the end of December, as expected. However, instead of the steady pricing many were expecting, the rise has started again, due to the damming results of a preliminary investigation into breaches of antitrust rules. Plainly speaking, the leading Norway Salmon farmers look set to receive fines reaching into the hundreds of millions of Euros as it is believed they colluded to distort the competition in the spot market.

In addition, Salmon farmers have harvested significantly lower volumes than predicted in 2023, the fact there is a lot of lower-grade salmon in the market due to production sores and the additional 25% tax on Salmon farms, it doesn’t look like the market is due to stabilise anytime soon.

TUNA COLD WATER PRAWNS

After reaching record highs in the first half of 2023, Skipjack Tuna prices have decreased in price in the second half of the year December price was around $1450 per tonne. That said, different oceans are seeing different pricing structures at the moment, for example the Indian ocean seems to be commanding a higher price than the Atlantic, purely through catch numbers and global demand requirements. However, there is a feeling that with expected rises in global freight costs, that could spell and end to the fall in tuna prices.

Whilst there is still no Free Trade agreement in place between the UK & Greenland, the import of Cold Water Prawns into the UK were lower than the same period in 2023.

Pricing is set to rise in Q1 and Q2 2024, experts predict around 10-15% on current prices due to Greenland looking to reduce their total export quarter.

“2023 was another strong year for Norwegian cold-water prawn. Apart from 2022, we must return to 2008 for a higher export volume. Despite a slight decrease in volume, the value has increased by 8 per cent compared to 2022. It was only in 1999 and 2000 that the value was higher. The largest markets, the UK, Sweden, and Finland, have all been characterised by high food inflation, weakened purchasing power and lower total imports of prawn”.

Marte Sofe Danielsen, Manager for Shellfish with the Norwegian Seafood Council

The Guardian Newspaper has named Cold Water Prawns as one of the “ones to eat” in 2024 for consumers looking to support sustainable efforts in fishing.

Fruit & Vegetables

CANNED FRUIT

It is worth noting that many of these canned fruits have a significant supply presence from China which is definitely being affected by the Red Sea disruption. Already, offers on Chinese products have been pulled from the market.

FROZEN FRUIT

Overall, the frozen fruit market has grown year on year and is expected to be valued at around $5.5b by 2027

Gaining popularity of non-seasonal fruits all year round is expected to remain the key driving factor in wholesale.

However, some experts claim that the frozen product is fresher than ‘fresh’ product, so some consumers are switching to this product as opposed to fresh.

Another key driving factor in overall price and demand is yet again the population looking to eat healthier. Smoothies are a huge player of this, not only homemade but purchased on the high street.

GRAPEFRUIT & ORANGE

Turkey is feeling the pinch due to the red sea, despite being further north than the impacted area, its proximity is affecting container shipments already.

MANDARINS

Most product originates from Turkey and China, needless to say there will be high increases on the horizon on these products due to Turkey’s previously outlined issues and the Chinese freight costs.

SOLID PACK APPLES

Pricing has steadied but there has been some small increases on raw material prices in Europe. Chinese product has surpassed the European pricing due to the Red Sea issues. Italian prices are much more stable.

POTATOES

Potato markets have taken a bit of a turn for the worse in recent weeks

A number of countries including Germany, The Netherlands, Belgium and France have seen many fields flooded still with a reasonable percentage of their crops to be harvested (around 7-8% yet to be harvested as of Dec 2023). The significant flooding has made it difficult to get potatoes out of the ground and some potatoes will be un-usable.

The above has meant that free-market potatoes have more than doubled in recent weeks and are likely to put a little bit more pressure on next season, as it may now mean zero carryover of potatoes.

From a UK perspective ‘On January 16th, the Mintec Benchmark Prices (MBP) for White Potatoes rose by 16.3% week-on-week (w-o-w) to £465/mt, reflecting an increase. Conversely, the MBP for Maris Piper Potatoes rose by 16.6% w-o-w over the same period to £560/mt.

Market sources attribute the respective price increases to growers holding firm offers amid limited supply availability.

Despite the substantial increases, sources note that procurement challenges persist, leading growers to maintain bullish sentiments and anticipate further price hikes in the coming weeks.

The scarcity of potatoes on the market is a result of last year’s adverse weather conditions during the harvest, particularly impacting Maris Piper potatoes.

This limited availability could prompt retailers to compensate for the shortfall by substituting Maris Pipers with white potatoes. Industry stakeholders are closely monitoring March plantings, acknowledging that a wet planting period could potentially move prices higher, as it would delay the 2024 harvest.’

Grocery

DRIED FRUIT & NUTS

The demand for dried fruit & nuts shows no signs of stopping with an increase year on year of the population looking to eat healthier Pricing spikes easily as for the majority of products, supply can never keep up with the growing demand.

SULTANAS & RAISINS

Sultanas and raisins have had a huge spike due to the situation in Turkey Extreme weather conditions, minimum wage rises and now freight increases.

ALMONDS

Prices have steadied now after a year of dropping on the market we would expect nothing to dramatically change on these products in the near future.

OLIVES & CAPERS

Increase on products due to Minimum wage increases

Jar pricing HAS INCREASED up to 27% in 12 months

Foodservice lids

Pricing has increased up to 92% in 12 months

Extreme weather resulting in smaller crops & driving up the cost of raw materials

The reasons above are pushing suppliers to look at Egypt who are also struggling to steady prices. It is no secret that olive oil has risen in price at huge rates and of course the lack of olives is affecting the table olive market also.

Turkey raises monthly minimum wage by 49% for 2024

UK fruit & veg supply threatened as Morocco heatwave decimates crops

ORANGE JUICE

Prices continue to remain firm at record levels with spot containers fetching a real premium versus that of contracted prices. The citrus greening disease which has blighted global orange juice production, particularly in the key player of Brazil continues to cause record prices in the market. At present there seems no end to these high prices unless demand starts to plummet, but as yet this does not seem to be the case.

APPLE JUICE

Demand is strong throughout Europe, but supply is limiting trade and subduing the market, according to market sources, most apple juice is concluded under contracts Many buyers were expecting a drop in price as the processing season came to an end, yet this never occurred.

China has also had a challenging apple season with a lower crop than normal.’

WHEAT COCOA

European grain prices benefited briefly from a drop in the euro/ dollar exchange rate this week, although overall downward pressure persists This downward pressure comes from both Chicago and the Black Sea countries. Generally, UK wheat prices are stable and have fallen since Q4 last year, after the highs of last year.

The Euronext wheat milling futures MAR-23 contract settled at €216.5/mt, down 2.26% week-on-week (w-o-w) at the close on 17th January 2024.

DURUM WHEAT

Durum wheat prices have been pretty rocky in recent months

The first half of 2023 saw prices fall significantly and then concerns around the Canadian crops towards the end of the year meant that prices rose dramatically within a number of weeks. Since then, things seemed to have settled more so in Italy whereas Canada is still showing a year-on-year increase. Either way, things are well down on the record prices see in 2021/2022 when durum wheat prices reached the highs of approximately £500 per tonne.

RICE

Rice is resilient, even in times of economic crisis It’s affordable, versatile and filling. That’s not to say rice has been immune to the woes afflicting other foodstuffs. Like many categories, price increases this year “have far surpassed the norm”, notes NIQ analyst Adam Paulson. Average price per kilo is £2.66, up 9.9% year on year.

A ban in India on all non-basmati exports sent commodity prices surging earlier this year, and it is unclear how long that will last. Furthermore, the El Niño weather pattern is already threatening production in some areas of southeast Asia, which could lead to diminished global supplies and more price hikes for 2024.

Cocoa prices have recently skyrocketed to levels unseen in the past five decades This remarkable escalation has overtaken highs from the 1970s when cocoa demand experienced a significant upswing, driven by the expansion of the confectionery industry and the growing popularity of chocolate products. During that era, cocoa production remained heavily concentrated within a select group of nations, rendering the cocoa supply chain highly susceptible to various disruptions, ranging from political instability to inclement weather events.

Shoppers have bought an extra 3.2 million kilos of rice – making it one of only 12 markets to deliver volume growth in this year’s Top Products

The principal catalyst behind the recent surge in cocoa prices can be attributed to a pronounced supply deficit, exacerbated by underwhelming cocoa yields, which have been plagued by crop diseases and adverse weather conditions. The graph below shows the huge year on year increases which is and will filter through into finished good prices.

EDIBLE OILS

RAPESEED, SOYA & PALM OIL OLIVE OIL

These three edible oil markets have settled and are stable in pricing at the moment This will be pleasing news to caterers who have seen cooking oil (and products made from these oils) reach record highs during the start of the Russia/Ukraine war.

In terms of outlook, the European rapeseed crop for this year does look to be a lower planted area than last year but of course the amount of carryover stock will also play a role. The projection places the rapeseed crop at around 18 to 18.3 million metric tonnes—potentially the smallest crop since the 2021/22 season. Farmers are citing low returns (especially compared to recent years) as a reason for the lower plantings. We will only get a better idea of how this looks later in 2024.

The stocks of soybean are expected to grow in the coming months This could help pressure downwards rapeseed prices.

Europe has almost run out of local olive oil supplies and is set for more shortages, after extreme weather damaged harvests for a second year. Extreme weather in other important growing regions including Greece, Italy and Portugal as well as Turkey and Morocco have added to the crisis.

Olive oil price skyrockets as Spanish drought bites

This is turning out to be another bad year, to put it mildly. We’ve had two years of drought in a row, 2022 and 2023, and two years of bad harvests. Spain is the world’s biggest olive oil producer, covering 70% of European Union consumption and 45% of that of the entire world. The lack of rain that this province, and other olive-producing areas around Spain, have been seeing therefore has an enormous impact on both the amount of oil being produced and its price. When Spain has problems, that creates problems for global production.

If the world supply is lower because Spain is producing less and the demand remains the same, the price goes up it’s the law of supply and demand.

In Spain, olive oil prices have increased by more than 70% this year alone after a sharp rise in 2022. A one-litre bottle of extra virgin oil currently costs around €9 ($9.88; £7.79) in low-budget supermarkets. A slight drop in the market price in recent weeks is only providing light relief.

Drinks

TEA

Tea shipments are being rerouted to avoid the Red Sea, following repeated drone and missile attacks Ongoing USUK airstrikes failed to halt Yemen-based Houthi rebels who this week hit a Greek-registered bulk carrier, a Malta-based cargo ship, and an American-owned cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden. Rerouting is inconvenient and costly but unlikely to seriously disrupt global supply chains. Indian Tea Exporters Association Chairman Anshuman Kanoria said tea exports to Europe and the US are negatively impacted. Fifteen additional days are required for the westbound shipments, and container availability has “fallen significantly, leading to a huge surge in ocean freight rates.”

COFFEE

Global production in 2023-24 forecast to increase to 177.6Million bags from 167.1Million bags.

Kenyan Government has suspended VAT (value-added tax) on tea processed incountry, along with several National Treasury-approved incentrives budgeted to expand value-addition in the new year.

Global consumption forecast to rise 1.5% y/y to 175.9 million bags. Robusta consumption rose 10% in 2022-23, while arabica fell 7%. Low arabica output in Brazil and Colombia over the past two seasons has helped underpin the shift in consumption. Global output may climb to 187.3m bags in 2024-25 under normal weather conditions; prices may fall to the cost of production on higher supply, with farmers currently investing in future output. The price difference between arabica and robusta during the current season is less than in the previous season.

Overall, coffee prices do remain up year on year, with robusta particularly high at the moment.

CATERING SUPPLIES

PACKAGING

Sustainability continues to be a hot topic and with this in play, it’s increasingly difficult to balance costs vs sustainability.

It looks like material costs have stabilised however, gas and electric have surged in December, and do not see signs of the market changing.

PLASTIC

A further increase on plastic tax goes live on the 1st of April, increasing the rate by 3.33% (from £210.82 per tonne to £217.85). Whilst there is a plastic tax coming, pricing has dropped which may offset the increases.

Staverton

There was a spike on aluminium & tin pricing in December due to the power price surge. Aluminium has dropped, but tinplate has maintained its price. Energy rates are potentially dropping in the middle of the year, so hopefully we can expect prices to come down.

Wooburn