Autumn Insights & Market Update

AUTUMN INSIGHT & MARKET UPDATE 2023 BY

Overview Preface

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3

UK Eating Out Market

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4

Insight Wheel

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5

A Welcome Escape

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6

Time to Indulge

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7

Flavours from Afar

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Nod to Nostalgia

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11

Care

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13

Education

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14

Hospitality

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15

Concept in Focus

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16

Commodity Report

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17

Dates for the Diary

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18

References

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19

Sector News

Preface

Fancy a development day with our Food Innovation Team? Get in touch with your Creed contact to arrange a day.

Welcome to the third and final installment of our 2023 Insight & Market updates. The past few years have brought economic uncertainty to all and whilst we are still not out of the woods yet, there are signs that inflation is easing, and wage growth is slightly improving. That said, consumer confidence is still volatile as the slightest decline, negatively (and almost instantly) affects consumer resilience. We are seeing UK consumers continue to be extremely cost-conscious as value-led missions are continually increasing.

Rob Owen Executive Business Development Chef

Although costs are a huge factor for the majority, latest data shows that whilst occasions are decreasing, we are choosing to ‘go all out’ when having those dining occasions. Food has the ability to excite and enthuse consumers – whether eating in a restaurant, a school canteen, or a care home dining room.

Food makes the collective come together, to enjoy and socialise whether that is trying new formats or consuming food that makes you feel comforted. Our final update looks at the experience trends that

Joseph Oliver Business Development Chef

food and drink can give and how chefs and caterers can experiment and try new things to cater to what the UK population wants to offer: A Welcome Escape.

As our Insight & Innovation team we continue to challenge ourselves so that we can bring you, our customers the latest consumer insight trends whilst showing how these can be actionable and translate into

recipes,

communications

and

ultimately

help

with

your

ways

of

working.

The following insights and market trends have been compiled by us and from key industry data partners.

Anna Clapson Insights Manager

UK Eating Out Market Report 2023

By Lumina Intelligence

The total eating out market is

Consumers are prioritising

Future market growth will be

forecast for growth of +4.6%

special occasions, on the go

driven by evolving, premium

in 2023, to reach a value of

and necessity visits,

and experience-driven

£95.2billion.

as value scrutiny increases (to

formats, as cost of living

Aided by high inflation and slowly

77%, +4ppts YoY) whilst delivery

pressures forecast to ease from

improving volumes, as well as key

has taken a back seat in 2023

2024, contributing to more

calendar events as additional

with the delivery market declining

discretionary spending &

opportunities to boost sales

by 1.5ppts YoY to 12% of total

investments in formats &

market share

products to enhance trading occasions Lumina Intelligence, UK Eating Out Market Report, May 2023

Insight Wheel For 2023, the Insights & Innovation team has put together our Insight Wheel. This focuses on the key themes that we see are overarching within food & drink, whether that is consumed in a care home setting or enjoyed in your local restaurant.

We have organised our 17 key buzzwords within three key themes that are dictating and driving conversations in the current climate, these are: 

Do Better, Feel Better



Enhancing Value



A Welcome Escape

Collectively, these trends work in tandem, whilst some buzzwords might be more or less prevalent depending the operation.

This wheel forms the basis of our innovation and drives us to help create solutions to support you, our customers.

A Welcome Escape With the focus of value so heavily looked upon, it’s important to remember the fun that food can bring to what we consume.

A Welcome Escape looks at all the exciting elements that chefs and caterers can tap into, to transport diners away from the everyday – and how even the everyday food and drink can be elevated.

This trends looks into emerging cuisines, how nostalgia can be evoked through dishes and how the ambiance has so much power to create a great experience.

To help dive deeper into this, the following sections will focus on Time to Indulge, Flavours from Afar and Nod to Nostalgia supported with recipes & top tips from our development chef team.

Time to Indulge

Flavours from Afar

Nod to Nostalgia

A Welcome Escape: Time to Indulge Consumers are dining out less, but when they do, more decadent occasions are sought after. ‘Treat’ still remains the number 1 mission for dining out of home eating and drink occasions, and operators have a great opportunity to tap into this. Despite the high inflation and economic uncertainty, consumers continue to seek

Examples of Time to Indulge We’re seeing Roast Dinners take an even more indulgent turn, with the increase in sharing platters – often shared between diners and with multiple meats

affordable treats, known as the lipstick effect, Classic indulgence is where we’re seeing this trend come through on menus, where operators are taking well-known and well-loved items and injecting that little something extra. Side dishes are also becoming indulgent with ‘dirty’ or ‘loaded’ options being upsold on

Care UK shows examples of plate presentation, as residents are presented a menu and served a beautifully crafted plate of food

menus.

Seasonal specials tap into this trend too by using these key calendar events as a push on indulgence in many different formats i.e. loaded hot chocolate or a Halloween brownie.

Our Kitchen’72 range allows for pure indulgence – with a new range of on trend curry sauces, completely allergen free. The range of table sauces also allow chefs to top and coat ingredients in four delicious flavours

A Welcome Escape: Time to Indulge We all love a bit of indulgence when we’re eating out – and this is what this trend is all about. Here we

Super indulgent, using slow cooked beef from our Creed Family Butchers

have used a slow-roasted beef joint and then marinaded it its juices – perfect for adding that extra flavour making it a little more indulgent. Make sure you add these great messages onto menus so that customers can get excited about what they are about to eat.

Rob Owen Executive Business Development Chef

Need inspiration for incorporating this trend?

Read our Top Tips below:  Indulgence doesn’t have to be expensive – think simple wins. We’re seeing a similar menu item being used in different ways and with different toppings, such as chicken wings or loaded fries. Use ingredients from other parts of your menu, to reduce SKUs but elevate uses.  Indulgence can really tap into ‘experience’ – are there desserts that you can offer where the customer constructs themselves? Or a dish that can be interactive, such as a chocolate fondue with fresh fruit and brownies.

Fancy a development day with our Development Chef Team? Get in touch with your Creed contact to arrange a day!

Click the image above or scan the QR code to view

A Welcome Escape: Flavours from Afar The cultural influence of world cuisines is growing at pace as consumers are having a wider and more regular exposure to varied flavours.

East Asian cuisines (such as Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese) continue their popularity as we’re seeing more specialist operators pop up on the high street, but also mainstream operators using key East Asian flavours profiles (such as Yuzu Ponzo and Gochujang) appear onto more menus.

The UK is seeing significant growth in a number of emerging cuisines such as Caribbean, South/East/West African and South East Asian cuisines. Not only are these cuisines packed full of flavour and excitement, but they lend themselves well to more ‘street food’ style eating which we know is dominating the UK food scene. This provides diners with the ability to customise their choices and try multiple dishes.

Examples of Flavours from A Far Taste Peru – is in a market hall in Doncaster which serves up authentic peruvian food and sauces.

Key flavours are pepper, cumin and paprika Chakalaka, Manchester, is a south African small plates bar serving a range of classic dishes, including the ‘chakalaka’ spicy bean relish. The menu is traditionaly meat heavy with hearty curries and stews Roti King, London is a Malaysian restaurant specialising in made-toorder, buttery roti – key flavours are satay, spicy seasonings and coconut milk.

A Welcome Escape: Flavours from Afar This is one of my favourite trends – being able to cook and taste different cuisines. This Curry

Full of flavour and perfect as we come into the cooler months – try out goat curry recipe, perfect for all ages.

Goat recipe that we have put together traditionally comes from India, but is a staple in South East Asian and also Caribbean cooking – it’s interesting to see how the different areas of the world have their own interpretations of this recipe and use herbs and spices in different ways to get the most out of the flavour

Joseph Oliver Business Development Chef

Need inspiration for incorporating this trend?

Read our Top Tips below:  Don’t be afraid to try new things! We are seeing that children are much more open to different food and flavours so incorporating small elements into your cooking is great to add excitement.  Use key flavour profiles from on-trend cuisines such as ‘yuzu’ traditionally used in Japanese cuisine, and combine into other formats – yuzu mayonnaise or Korean BBQ sauce.

Fancy a development day with our Development Chef Team? Get in touch with your Creed contact to arrange a day!

Click the image above or scan the QR code to view

A Welcome Escape: Nod to Nostalgia Nostalgia is big on menus as we’re seeing nods to nostalgia appear in both sweet and savoury. Twists on classics are popular with combined flavour profiles or mashups are being elevated to offer old items with a new relevance.

Recent data showed that, 73% of UK adults enjoy food and drink that reminds them of their past (Lumina Intelligence, 2022). Chefs and caterers can have some real fun with their trend by evoking memories for consumers of any age.

Social media is really driving this trend as we’re seeing the classic

Examples of Nod to Nostalgia John Lewis cafes have launched an Eton Mess Frappe – combining a classic dessert in a liquid format, complete with meringue and berry sauce

Theme days are great for injecting fun and a bit of nostalgia for residents – tap into key calendar dates and celebrate with decorations and classic foods to evoke memories for all

School Dinner cake do its rounds, and not only evoke memories for those who were at school when they were on menus but also create new memories for a slightly younger demographic who still appreciate this retro dessert. Well-loved international flavours such as Biscoff and S’mores are being incorporated into more UK treats as borrowed nostalgia.

The Pudding Station combines Nostalgia and Indulgence in the perfect pairing – what is better than a classic crumble, customised to suit all ages!

A Welcome Escape: Nod to Nostalgia Nostalgia means something different to all ages, but what we are now seeing is that nostalgia

A retro classic dessert, reimagined to suit all!

for older generations, is now newness for younger generations. You can have some real fun with this, as it can be incorporated right across a menu.

Bring back the retro desserts such as baked Alaska or a jam roly poly!

Rob Owen

Executive Business Development Chef

Need inspiration for incorporating this trend?

Read our Top Tips below:

 Look to social media - digital platforms are full of different ways that nostalgic gems can be incorporated onto menus. The School Dinner Cake is the perfect starting place!  Within the care sector, we’ve seen great success with hosting theme days, where the room, food and music all incorporates a theme to evoke memories i.e. a day at the seaside.

Fancy a development day with our Development Chef Team? Get in touch with your Creed contact to arrange a day!

Click the image above or scan the QR code to view

In The News: Care At the beginning of October, Creed Foodservice announced a joint tender with Care England, to leverage the buying power of other care providers and reduce costs in the industry. After three years of inflation, it has meant that food and beverage costs have increased across the board for care homes by 35% - challenged by energy, supply, and fuel costs.

Care England and Creed are seeking to help care operators

In other news… click the links to read more

manage their costs through multiple channels which require extra support, but will have a significant impact. Areas such as reduction in staffing overheads, educating on best practices,

“Grant scheme launched for care sector”

effective product selection, minimising food waste, controlled stock management and specially designed menus.

If you would like more information, please get in touch with your Creed Account Manager or Care England.

“Knight Frank predicts bounce-back for health and care sector in 2023”

In The News: Education Rising costs and restricted budgets is still at the top of the agenda when it comes to catering for the education sector. Over the last 5 years, some have seen hikes as much as 30% on items and services. BRITA Professional’s recent survey has found that through challenges such as inflation, labour shortages, supply issues, and lack of funding, 45% of school catering staff have had to give smaller portion sizes to still ensure they feed children with meals that meet the guidelines but also budgets.

In addition to this, we are seeing County Councils hike their prices to schools for a meal – on the 16th October, Nottingham County Council increased their prices from £2.55 to £2.95 as a result of financial pressures.

In other news… click the links to read more “Nottinghamshire County Council increases school meal prices by 40p”

In other news, VegPower has launched a public health campaign to support the whole family eat more fruit and vegetables. Research found that almost a third (29%) of primary school-aged students are eating less than one portion of vegetables a day. This campaign recognises the challenges that parents and families have with ensuring that more fruit and vegetables are consumed, so they are focussing on these challenges and providing support for positive food cultures in the home.

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“Research reveals education caterers forced to cut portion sizes amidst price hikes”

In The News: Hospitality Although we are seeing signs of ‘resilience’, latest costs of rising petrol prices and surging mortgage and rental costs have seen consumer confidence register its biggest month-on-month drop in three years.

This dampens confidence in spending out of home as consumers are concerned on available disposable income. We are also seeing this affect spending in home, as new research by Mintel found that consumers have significantly reduce the frequency that they are ordering food in (24% in 2023, compared with 30% in 2021).

With Christmas round the corner, there are lots of catering opportunities to focus on – as 49% of Brits intend to visit a pub or bar

In other news… click the links to read more “Research reveals nation’s ‘dream’ three-course dinner”

this festive period, and 49% also intending to visit a restaurant. Over half of Brits are looking for food quality over the season, with 50% keeping an eye on prices, wanting the best value for money.

Interestingly, when asked if Brits will be more careful with money this festive period vs last year, 45% said they would be compared with 58% from last year.

“Stonegate launches dynamic pricing”

CONCEPTS IN FOCUS OAKBERRY

|

acai-focused

Oakberry is an us

open a café, deli and bakery in

making its London debut. It will

central London. The menu will

serve acai bowls with various

include delicious Middle Eastern

toppings including seasonal fruit,

bakes as well as Middle Eastern

peanut butter & chai pudding.

salads and dips

THE PERMIT ROOM | Dishoom’s

CREAMS | The fast casual brand

new

Creams has signed a franchise

concept

QSR

is

brand

HONEY & CO| Honey & Co will

opening

in

Brighton. It will feature an all new

agreement

offering with being closer to a bar

launch will be within Tesco Cafes

than

name

as a co-branded space that will

Bombay

offer 24-flavour gelato alongside a

relates

a

restaurant. to

Prohibition.

the

Its

with

signature range.

Tesco.

The

AUTUMN Commodity Report After two years of significant inflation, it looks like things have started to slow down in some areas, predominantly due to more stable (yet still historically high) energy prices and falling freight costs which have impacted the costs of finishes products.

The reliance on imports and red tape around Brexit has arguably meant the UK has fallen slower than the rest of Europe. There are some factors that remain on a knife-edge, geo political issues such as the Russian war in Ukraine could tip the balance on grains and energy in either direction, so close attention is being paid to this. Switching off the ‘Crude Oil Tap’ could lead to pressure in fuel costs which could weigh heavily towards the end of the year.

The Bank of England is continuing with its policy to try and pull down the rate of inflation through the use of monetary policy and interest rates are expected to rise further to 5.5% in September before a potentially 6%+ by late 2023/early 2024. However, at present, the data shows that core inflation on commodities such as food remains high. Some experts predict that this policy, prioritising inflation levels over that of economic growth could lead to a recession in 2024, but this remains to be seen. It is important to note that whilst some headlines are of food price inflation falling, it does also mean that the level at which prices are increasing is lower than previous levels, but overall they are still increasing rather than decreasing.

CLICK HERE FOR THE AUTUMN COMMODITY REPORT 2023

Dates for the Diary NOVEMBER 2023 1-30 November

World Vegan Month

2 November

Day of the Dead

3 November

World Sandwich Day

4 November 5 November

Roast Dinner Day Bonfire Night

DECEMBER 2023

JANUARY 2024

2 December

English Breakfast Day

January

Slow Cooking Month

2 December

Fritters Day

January

Veganuary

5 December

Pigs in Blankets Day

6 January

National Shortbread Day

6 December

National Gazpacho Day

7 January

National Tempura Day

12 December

Get Ahead Gravy Day

13 January

Food Diversity Day

24 December

Christmas Eve

22 January

Hot Sauce Day

25 December

Christmas Day

23 January

Sticky Toffee Pudding Day

26 December

Boxing Day

25 January

Burns Night

31 December

New Year’s Eve

27 Day

Chocolate Cake Day

6-12 November

British Game Week

7 November

Pad Thai Day

8 November

Cappuccino Day

9 November

British Pudding Day

28 January

Blueberry Pancake Day

13-19 November

Sugar Awareness Day

30 January

Croissant Day

14 November

World Diabetes Day

31 January

Vegan Chocolate Day

17 November

Children in Need

References thefoodpeople Food & Beverage Trends 2022/2023 Thefoodpeople foodwatching August 2023 Thefoodpeople foodwatching September 2023 Thefoodpeople foodwatching October 2023 Lumina Intelligence UK Eating Out Report 2023 KAM Media CGA Menu & Trends Report 2023 Public Sector Catering Restaurant Magazine Politics.co.uk – Care England BBC News

To find out more, please contact our Insights Manager: annaclapson@creedfoodservice.co.uk