The Chronicle Newsletter of the Council on Foreign Relations — Spring 2017
Task Force Calls for Boosting Strategic Commitments in the Arctic Page 1 CFR.org Has a New Look Page 2 Steven Cook Recounts the Failures of Middle East Uprisings in New Book Page 11 Global Think Tank Leaders Give International Cooperation in 2016 a Low Grade Page 12 Plus Policymakers on the Hill Seek Council Expertise Page 4 Special Report Urges Support for NATO, Reassurances for Russia Page 14
G L OBAL COMMUN I C AT I O N S AND ME DI A R E L AT I O N S Lisa Shields Vice President Iva Zoric Director Anya Schmemann Washington Director Andrew Palladino Deputy Director Melinda Wuellner Deputy Director Dustin Kingsmill Associate Director Jenny Mallamo Associate Director Megan Daley Assistant Director Sabrina Khan Assistant Director Samantha Tartas Assistant Director Eugene Steinberg Associate Editor
PU BL I SH I NG Patricia Dorff Editorial Director Elizabeth Dana Production Editor Erik Crouch Associate Editor Sumit Poudyal Assistant Editor
Sherman Chu Don Pollard Sardari.com Photography
OFFI C E R S Carla A. Hills Co-Chairman Robert E. Rubin Co-Chairman David M. Rubenstein Vice Chairman Richard N. Haass President Keith Olson Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer James M. Lindsay Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair Nancy D. Bodurtha Vice President, Meetings and Membership
Irina A. Faskianos Vice President, National Program and Outreach Suzanne E. Helm Vice President, Philanthropy and Corporate Relations Jan Mowder Hughes Vice President, Human Resources and Administration Caroline Netchvolodoff Vice President, Education Lisa Shields Vice President, Global Communications and Media Relations Jeffrey A. Reinke Secretary of the Corporation
DI R E C T OR S John P. Abizaid ZoĂŤ Baird Alan S. Blinder Mary McInnis Boies David G. Bradley Nicholas Burns Tony Coles David M. Cote Steven A. Denning Blair Effron Laurence D. Fink Stephen Friedman Timothy F. Geithner Richard N. Haass (ex officio) Stephen J. Hadley Peter B. Henry J. Tomilson Hill Carla A. Hills
Susan Hockfield Donna J. Hrinak Shirley Ann Jackson James Manyika William H. McRaven Jami Miscik Janet A. Napolitano Eduardo J. PadrĂłn John Paulson Richard L. Plepler Ruth Porat David M. Rubenstein Robert E. Rubin Richard E. Salomon James G. Stavridis Margaret G. Warner Vin Weber Daniel H. Yergin
HO N OR A RY AND EMER I TU S Madeleine K. Albright Martin S. Feldstein Leslie H. Gelb
Maurice R. Greenberg Peter G. Peterson
Cover photo: The U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy is one of three operational U.S. icebreakers, seen here breaking ice in the Arctic. (Patrick Kelley/U.S. Coast Guard/Handout/Reuters)
The Chronicle Spring 2017 Task Force Calls for Strategic Commitments in the Arctic 1 CFR.org Has a New Look 2 I MPAC T AND AWAR DS Policymakers on the Hill Seek Council Expertise 4 Fadel, Mallaby, and CFR.org Receive Awards 6 P UBLIC AT IO N S
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Foreign Affairs: Trump in Practice 7 New Foreign Affairs Anthology Asks What Was the Liberal Order 9 New Discussion Papers and Corruption Briefs 10 Steven Cook’s New Book, False Dawn 11 International Cooperation Receives Low Grade 12 Robert Knake on Preventing a Cyberattack on U.S. Power Grid 13 Council Special Report on Russia and NATO 14 Memo Considers Renewed Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict 15 E VEN TS Symposium Contemplates U.S.-Russia Relations 16
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CFR Celebrates Diversity at Annual Conference 17 Corporate Conference Looks at Globalization 18 International Affairs Fellowship Program Turns Fifty 19 NE WS ABO U T C FR The Council Remembers David Rockefeller 21 New Members 23
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Task Force Warns U.S. Not to Leave Arctic Interests Unprotected “We are an Arctic nation and it’s time to remind ourselves,” remarked Christine Todd Whitman at the Washington launch of a new CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force, Arctic Imperatives: Reinforcing U.S. Strategy on America’s Fourth Coast. The report stresses that “the United States needs to increase its strategic commitment to the region or risk leaving its interests unprotected.” Receiving an endorsement from the American Geographical Society, the report finds that the United States lags behind other Arctic nations that have “updated their strategic and commercial calculations to take advantage of the changing conditions stemming from the opening of the region.” The bipartisan Task Force is composed of twenty experts from diverse backgrounds and is chaired by Thad W. Allen, retired admiral and former commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard, and Christine Todd Whitman, former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency and governor of New Jersey. The project was directed by Esther Brimmer, a recent CFR adjunct senior fellow for international institutions and executive director and chief executive officer of NAFSA: Association of International Educators. The Task Force identified six main goals that U.S. policymakers should pursue to protect the United States’ growing economic and strategic interests in the Arctic:
Ratify the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The Senate should help secure the United States’ legal rights to more than 386,000 square miles of subsea resources along its extended continental shelf by ratifying this treaty. Fund and maintain polar ice-breaking ships. Congress should approve funding for up to six icebreakers to improve operational capacity in the Arctic. Improve Arctic infrastructure. Invest in telecommunications, energy, and other infrastructure in Alaska and find locations for safe harbor ports and a deepwater port. Strengthen cooperation with other Arctic nations. Continue diplomatic efforts within the Arctic Council and work with other Arctic states, including Russia. Support sustainable development and Alaska Native communities. “Maintain the [Arctic] Council’s focus on sustainable development, environmental protection, and continued involvement of the Arctic’s indigenous peoples.” Fund scientific research. Sustain budget support for research to understand the impact of accelerated climate change. Read the report at www.cfr.org/ArcticImperatives.
Left to right: Project Director Esther Brimmer and Co-Chairs Thad W. Allen and Christine Todd Whitman, with Los Angeles Times Columnist Doyle McManus at the Arctic Task Force report launch in Washington, DC The Chronicle, Spring 2017
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CFR.org Has a New Look CFR is excited to announce the launch of the redesigned website. The new CFR.org features a contemporary design and greatly improved navigation, and is fully optimized for use on mobile devices. Along with the launch, CFR is introducing CFR Campus, a channel designed to highlight educational resources for instructors and students of all ages interested in U.S. foreign policy and international affairs. CFR.org will continue to provide timely analysis and explainers on major foreign policy developments. A new trending topics feature and reorganized region and topic pages enables users to get a quicker download on developments. CFR On The Record offers a convenient portal into events, including a vast archive of past meetings. “The new website gives CFR’s experts and writers a state-of-the-art platform to reach an even broader audience and offers a richer and more in-depth experience for users. It makes it easy to stay informed about our increasingly complex world, whether from a desktop, tablet, or mobile phone,� said CFR President Richard N. Haass. CFR.org will continue to create more video, infographics, trackers, podcasts, and interactive content.
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Follow CFR’s Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and Instagram accounts for more foreign policy insight. CFR welcomes your feedback on the new website. Email webmaster@cfr.org to share your thoughts about the site.
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Policymakers on the Hill Seek Council Expertise CFR’s Congress and U.S. Foreign Policy Program, headed by Washington External Affairs Director Patrick C. Costello, continues to extend its reach on Capitol Hill. Since the start of the 115th Congress in January, CFR has organized over one hundred meetings and roundtables for members of Congress and their staff. CFR hosts a variety of programming for different Congressional audiences: The Foreign Policy Breakfast Forum is a principal-level meeting series that has connected senators and representatives with up to a dozen Council members and fellows to consider a policy or national security issue of their choosing. The Congressional Senior Staff Roundtable series has convened groups of fifty to seventy senior staff members on a nearweekly basis to discuss foreign policy topics with CFR fellows.
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The Congressional Foreign Policy Study Group, a competitive program for exceptional congressional staff, has hosted monthly dinners to explore foreign policy matters in-depth with CFR fellows and members. In Expert Bank Briefings, CFR experts delivered individualized, in-depth briefings and consultations to members of Congress and their staff on a variety of foreign policy issues. The program recently hosted its fifth biennial congressional staff conference, a daylong program featuring panel discussions on topics ranging from cyber-security to the campaign against the self-proclaimed Islamic State to the future of the U.S.China relationship. CFR scholars are also often asked to testify before Congress on issues in their areas of expertise.
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“Venezuela’s economic, political, and social situation represents both a regional problem and a global affront to democratic values. As such it should be a priority for the current U.S. government, which should invest in the necessarily complex, time consuming, and fragile diplomatic processes to push for change, as well as to prepare for the day when it, in fact, may come.” —Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies and Director of the Civil Society, Markets, and Democracy Program Shannon K. O’Neil before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on March 2
“The United States should continue to exercise leadership in advancing interpretations [of international law on cyber issues] that support its strategic interests, including its own operational needs, bearing in mind that we also seek rules that will effectively constrain the behaviors of others.” —Adjunct Senior Fellow for Law and Foreign Policy Matthew C. Waxman before the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 2
“Like the Soviet Union of the 1970s, Iran has embarked on an imperial mission whose costs are more obvious than its benefits. The billions that Iran spends to sustain Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the lavish sums it invests in terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah may offer regional sway, but they further burden the Islamic Republic’s depleted economy.” —Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies Ray Takeyh before the House Subcommittee on National Security, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform on April 5
“Our military assistance program is pretty much irrelevant to the effort to combat terror in Egypt. The Egyptian military has, as I’ve noted, wanted to spend vast sums on submarines and frigates and high-performance combat jets, all of which are useless in fighting terror and waste scarce resources. I believe we should all be reviewing our own aid to see how it can be made far more useful to the achievement of our own goals.” —Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies Elliott Abrams before the Senate Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs on April 25
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Leila Fadel Reportage Receives Gracie Award Edward R. Murrow Press Fellow and NPR International Correspondent Leila Fadel received a Gracie Award for her NPR news feature “Two Little Bombs,” which tells the story of two teenage girls recruited by extremists to join the self-declared Islamic State in Libya. The Gracie Awards recognize women’s work and achievements in the media industry. Previous recipients of the award include Diane Sawyer and Oprah Winfrey.
Sebastian Mallaby Awarded Eccles Prize Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics Sebastian Mallaby has been recognized with Columbia Business School’s 2017 George S. Eccles Prize for Excellence in Economic Writing for his book The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan. Mallaby’s critically praised biography was also named the 2016 Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year.
Amazon InfoGuide Wins Webby This year, CFR’s InfoGuide “Deforestation in the Amazon” was honored with the critic’s choice Webby Award in the “green” category. The interactive guide is a deeply immersive look at Brazil’s high-stakes struggle with deforestation in the Amazon and has been translated into Portuguese. This is CFR.org’s second Webby Award, the leading international award honoring excellence on the internet.
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May/June 2017
“Present at the Destruction?” is the cover package of the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs and offers an early assessment of Donald J. Trump’s administration. Highlights include: Princeton University Professor G. John Ikenberry examines the damage Trump has already done to the liberal international order, finding that “Trump has abdicated responsibility for the world the United States built, and only time will tell the full extent of the damage he will wreak.” Philip H. Gordon, CFR senior fellow and former Obama administration official, observes that “there is a real risk that . . . Trump’s erratic style and confrontational policies . . . lead to open conflict—in the most likely cases, with Iran, China, or North Korea.” The Chronicle, Spring 2017
University of Michigan’s Robert Mickey, Harvard University’s Steven Levitsky, and University of Toronto’s Lucan Ahmad Way note that under Trump—a president who has praised dictators and threatened to jail his campaign opponent—American democracy is not immune to backsliding, especially in an era of intense political polarization. Georgetown University’s Matthew Kroenig presents a case for Trump’s foreign policy decisions, concluding that on almost every front, “Trump has begun to correct the failures of the past eight years and position the United States well for the challenges to come.” Kissinger Associates Chief Executive Officer and former Central Intelligence Agency Deputy Director Jami Miscik explains how the relationship between the White House should work with the intelligence community: “The relationship needs to be recalibrated, with policymakers gaining a deeper understanding of and appreciation for the work of intelligence professionals—a mission in which ‘alternative facts’ have no place.” Antonio Taguba, the retired Army major general who led a 2004 army internal investigation into prisoner abuse at the U.S. detention facility in Abu Ghraib, and Scott Cooper, a retired Marine lieutenant colonel, challenge Trump’s advocacy of torture as an interrogation tactic. Dartmouth College’s Douglas A. Irwin finds Trump’s protectionist trade policy “risks triggering a global trade war that would prove damaging to all countries” and that “lessons from the past, such as the trade disaster of the 1930s, suggest that protectionism begets protectionism.” Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Ruchir Sharma asserts that “depopulation, deleveraging, and deglobalization have become potent obstacles to growth 7
and should prompt policymakers in countries at all levels of development to redefine economic success.” In light of rising anti-globalist populism, Brown University’s Jeff D. Colgan and Princeton University’s Robert O. Keohane reconsider their earlier advocacy of a liberal international order they now concede was more flawed than they realized. Chatham House’s Sanam Vakil, associate fellow at and lecturer at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies in Europe, and Hossein Rassam, director of Rastah Idealogistics and a former advisor on Iran to the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office, profile the three likeliest candidates to replace Iran’s aging supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As news emerges of massive new corruption investigations in Brazil, Americas Quarterly’s Brian Winter explains that “only by renouncing their special privileges and committing to genuine reform will Brazil’s politicians be able to ward off disaster and regain the public’s trust.” The Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s L. Rafael Reif argues that Trump’s proposed cuts to science funding put the United States at a competitive disadvantage.
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What Was the Liberal Order? A Foreign Affairs Anthology Looks at a System Under Threat In the wake of World War II, Western policymakers decided to try a new kind of foreign policy. Rejecting the isolationism and protectionism of the interwar years, they joined together to build a new, liberal international order based on mutually beneficial cooperation in economics and national security. But in recent years the order has fallen on difficult times—and now faces its greatest challenge yet, in the form of the Trump administration, explains Editor Gideon Rose in his introduction to the new Foreign Affairs collection “What Was the Liberal Order?” Selections from the collection include: “Datum Point” by Foreign Affairs Editor Hamilton Fish Armstrong in 1943: “Without a military victory there is no chance of a worthy peace. Without a worthy peace victory will have been worth winning in only a very limited sense. Whether or not the peace is worthy will depend on the coordinated action and common will of the United Nations—all of them—now and later.” “Bretton Woods and International Cooperation” by Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau Jr. in 1945: “International monetary and financial cooperation is indispensable for the maintenance of economic stability; and economic stability, in turn, is indispensable to the maintenance of political stability. Therefore, a program for international economic cooperation of which Bretton Woods is the first step must accompany the program for political and military security toward which the United Nations are moving.” “The Myth of Post–Cold War Chaos” by University of Pennsylvania’s G. John Ikenberry in 1996: “Fifty years after its founding, the Western liberal democratic world is robust, and its principles and policies remain the core of world order. The challenges The Chronicle, Spring 2017
to liberal multilateralism both from within and from outside the West have mainly disappeared. Although regional experiments abound, they are fundamentally different from the autarkic blocs of the 1930s.” “Global Trumpism” by Brown University’s Mark Blyth in 2016: “To understand the election of Donald Trump we need to listen to the trumpets blowing everywhere in the highly indebted developed countries and the people who vote for them. The global revolt against elites is not just driven by revulsion and loss and racism. It’s also driven by the global economy itself. This is a global phenomenon that marks one thing above all. The era of neoliberalism is over. The era of neonationalism has just begun.” 9
New Discussion Papers on Asia and the Middle East, Corruption Briefs on Brazil and Africa E XPANDI NG S OU T H KOR E A’ S S EC UR I T Y ROLE I N T HE A SIA-PAC I FIC R E GION South Korea is a Northeast Asian power with a global presence, but its geopolitical influence in Southeast Asia is rarely exercised. The Center for a New American Security’s Patrick M. Cronin and South Korean Ministry of Unification’s Seongwon Lee explain that South Korea could play a larger role in the wider region if it were able to place its national interests in the South China Sea over the voiced concerns of China. T HE KORE AN PI VOT : S EO UL’ S STR ATE GIC C H OIC E S AND R ISI NG R I VALR I E S I N NORT HE A S T A S IA CFR’s Scott A. Snyder and Sungtae “Jacky” Park and Johns Hopkins University’s Darcie Draudt argue that the United States and South Korea will need an even closer alliance and improved multilateral cooperation to deal with the North Korean threat and to prepare for the possibility of instability in North Korea. They contend that Washington should allow room for Seoul to maneuver in its relationship with Beijing and not seek to lock South Korea into a balancing posture against China. RECONC I LI N G U.S .-TUR K IS H I N TERE STS I N N ORT H E R N S Y R IA Although some of the United States’ and Turkey’s objectives in northern Syria are complementary, others are contradictory. The United States needs to consider the effects of its intervention in northern Syria on Turkey, its North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally, as well as on terrorist groups The Chronicle, Spring 2017
it seeks to destroy. The Atlantic Council’s Aaron Stein argues that to address these systemic problems, the United States should reconcile the contradictory aspects of its relationship with Turkey. WH AT U . S . P OL I C Y M A K E R S C A N L E A R N F ROM BR A ZI L’ S A N T I COR RU P T I O N GA I NS CFR’s Matthew M. Taylor explains the important lessons Brazil’s path holds for how U.S. policymakers might assist other countries in their fight against corruption. By enhancing international cooperation capacity, providing targeted technical training, and encouraging the adoption of international norms, the United States can advance the efforts of local reformers in other middleincome democracies. H OW T H E T RU M P A D M I N I S T R AT I O N C A N H E L P COM BAT K L E P T O C R AC Y I N AFR ICA CFR’s John Campbell and Allen Grane contend that a Trump campaign against kleptocracy in Nigeria and South Africa would support democratic interests, reduce domestic acquiescence or support for insurgencies in sub-Saharan Africa, and counter international criminal networks. It would also strengthen and spread a panAfrican culture of anticorruption, thereby encouraging a long-term sustainable regional commitment to good governance and the rule of law.
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Steven A. Cook Recounts the Failure of Middle East Uprisings in New Book More than half a decade after people across the Middle East poured into the streets to demand change, hopes for democracy have disappeared in a maelstrom of violence and renewed state repression. In False Dawn: Protest, Democracy, and Violence in the New Middle East, Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies Steven A. Cook explains why the Middle Eastern uprisings did not succeed. Despite appearances, there were no true revolutions in the Middle East six years ago: none of the affected societies underwent social revolutions, and the old structures of power were never eliminated. Egypt remains an authoritarian state, Syria and Yemen are in the midst of devastating civil wars, Libya has descended into anarchy, and the self-declared Islamic State remains a threat. Even Turkey, which also experienced large-scale protests, has abandoned its earlier shift toward openness and democracy and now more closely resembles an autocracy. In examining the root causes of the current state “False Dawn offers a sweeping of affairs in the region, Cook acknowledges that “leaders around the Middle East harbored world- account, a combination of onviews that were antithetical to what the uprisings the-ground narrative and deep and the Gezi Park protests [in Turkey] stood for.” historical analysis of what went However, he notes that these leaders “cannot be wrong. Steven Cook’s excellent held solely responsible for the nature of politics in their respective countries. They have certainly book opens with a quote from had help from feckless oppositions, bloodthirsty deposed Egyptian leader Hosni extremists, and indifferent world powers.” Cook Mubarak in 2011 that seemed adds, “In an important way, however, no one is dilike a threat at the time but now rectly responsible.” With regard to the role of the United States, Cook reads more like a prophecy: ‘The argues, “What ails the Middle East has less to do youth who called for change and with the United States than Washington’s political reform will be the first to suffer.’ class and the foreign policy establishment are inCook tells us why.” clined to believe. Policymakers should get used to it because it will likely be the story of the Middle East —Deb Amos, international for at least a generation to come.”
correspondent, NPR News
Visit the book page at www.cfr.org/falsedawn.
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Global Think Tank Leaders Give International Cooperation in 2016 a Low Grade The third annual Report Card on International Cooperation sharply downgraded its assessment of efforts to mitigate the world’s most vexing problems in 2016 to a C–, falling from a B grade in 2015. The Council of Councils, a CFR initiative comprising twenty-six major international policy institutes, surveyed the heads of member think tanks to evaluate the world’s performance on ten of the most important transnational challenges of 2016. “Limited progress in combating climate change and advancing development in 2016 was overwhelmed by dismal failures of international efforts to promote global trade, resolve internal conflicts, and advance cyber governance,” said CFR President Richard N. Haass. “Nationalist electoral campaigns throughout the world sailed to victory on promises to retreat from international commitments. This suggests 2017 will face even more fundamental challenges to international cooperation.” The Report Card offers the following individual grades:
Of the ten challenges, respondents indicated that fighting terrorism held the most potential for progress in 2017. Despite being graded a mediocre score of C, this was the only area in which respondents saw an improvement over 2015. Preventing and responding to violent conflict between states should be the top priority for world leaders in 2017, according to the think tank leaders polled between December 2016 and January 2017. “Tensions have emerged in places where no one could have foreseen just a few months ago,” said Luis Rubio, president of the Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales in Mexico. “The current world order is being challenged and uncertainty as to what will emerge in its place abounds.” The Report Card was made possible by the generous support of the Robina Foundation. Read the full report at www.cfr.org/councilofcouncils/reportcard.
Mitigating and Adapting to Climate Change: B Promoting Global Health: B Advancing Development: B– Preventing Nuclear Proliferation: B– Managing the Global Economy: C+ Combating Transnational Terrorism: C Preventing and Responding to Violent Conflict Between States: C Managing Cyber Governance: C– Expanding Global Trade: D+ Preventing and Responding to Internal Violent Conflict: D+
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Mitigating the Risks of a State-Sponsored Cyberattack Against the U.S. Power Grid “The U.S. power grid has long been considered a target for a major cyberattack,” writes Robert K. Knake in a new Contingency Planning Memorandum. The memorandum, produced by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action, examines how such a large-scale cyberattack could be possible and suggests preventive measures for the Donald J. Trump administration to consider. Knake, CFR’s Whitney Shepardson senior fellow, warns that disabling or otherwise interfering with the power grid could seriously harm the United States. “Besides the intrinsic importance of the power grid to a functioning U.S. society, all sixteen sectors of the U.S. economy deemed to make up the nation’s critical infrastructure rely on electricity,” he cautions. Although cyberattacks by terrorist and criminal organizations cannot be ruled out, the capabilities necessary to mount a major operation make state adversaries the principal threat. “A number of sophisticated actions would require extensive planning by an organization able to recruit and coordinate a team that has broad set of capabilities and is willing to devote many months, if not years, to the effort. State actors, therefore, are the more likely perpetrators, and given these long lead times, U.S. adversaries have likely already begun this process in anticipation of conflict,” he explains. Knake, a former director for cybersecurity at the National Security Council under President Barack Obama, suggests that the Trump administration focus its efforts on preventing an attack on the grid both through deterrence policy and by strengthening security. He offers several recommendations, including “focus on creating an information-sharing system that can bring together early The Chronicle, Spring 2017
A reliability coordinator monitors power at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas command center in Taylor, Texas. (Julia Robinson/Reuters)
signals that an attack against the grid is under way and share information that can be used to stop it;” “ensure that both the government and the industry are prepared to respond. [The Federal Emergency Management Agency] should develop a response plan for a prolonged regional blackout that addresses the logistical difficulties of responding at scale in an environment degraded by the loss of power;” and “ensure utilities can invest sufficiently in cybersecurity and do not need to make tradeoffs between traditional risk management activities and addressing national security threats.” Read the memorandum at www.cfr.org/CyberattackUS. 13
Special Report Urges Support for NATO, Reassurances for Russia “[Vladimir] Putin’s aggression makes the possibility of a war in Europe between nuclear-armed adversaries frighteningly real,” writes Kimberly Marten in a new Council Special Report on tensions between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). She outlines how U.S. policymakers can deter Russian aggression with robust support for NATO, while reassuring Russia of NATO’s defensive intentions through clear words and actions based in international law. Marten, a professor of political science at Barnard College, Columbia University, and director of the Program on U.S.-Russia Relations at Columbia’s Harriman Institute, lays out several scenarios that could lead to a dangerous confrontation—ranging from an inadvertent encounter between NATO and Russian aircraft and ships to an intentional Russian land grab in Europe. The report, produced by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action, offers a plan for the Trump administration to lessen the chances of crisis escalation. Marten recommends that U.S. policymakers take the following steps to deter Russian threats: Reaffirm the U.S. commitment to NATO defense. “President Trump should immediately reaffirm, and the State Department and Pentagon should periodically restate, that the defense of all NATO member states is Washington’s highest priority in Europe.” Sustain U.S. troop deployments in Poland while emphasizing the deployments’ legitimacy under past international agreements with Moscow. Rely on—and publicize—comprehensive, superior capabilities to deter Russia. Encourage NATO to think creatively about measures that would significantly The Chronicle, Spring 2017
raise the costs for Russia of attacking NATO and therefore make such an attack less attractive and less likely. She also suggests a series of reassurance measures to demonstrate that NATO has only defensive intentions: Treat Russian leaders and the Russian state with public respect even if tensions rise. “The Trump administration will achieve more if it remains diplomatic and unemotional, and helps Russian leaders save face at home.” Formally announce that the United States does not seek to impose regime change on Russia and ask Putin to reciprocate. Publicly state that the United States believes Ukraine has not currently met NATO membership standards and has a long way to go. Reestablish regional military and arms control negotiations. To read the full report, Reducing Tensions Between Russia and NATO, visit www.cfr.org/RussiaNATOCSR.
Russia’s national security strategy, signed by Vladimir Putin, calls the expansion of NATO a national security threat. (Alexei Nikolsky/RIA Novosti/Pool/ Reuters) 14
U.S. Should Work With Russia to Avoid Renewed Conflict Over NagornoKarabakh, Asserts New CFR Memo “The likelihood that Armenians and Azerbaijanis will clash over Nagorno-Karabakh in the next twelve months is high,” writes Carey Cavanaugh in a new Contingency Planning Memorandum. Renewed violence in this South Caucasus region disputed by Armenia and Azerbaijan since the fall of the Soviet Union could jeopardize U.S. and other Western interests in the region and endanger U.S. relations with Russia, Turkey, and Iran, he cautions. In “Renewed Conflict Over NagornoKarabakh,” a memo produced by the Center for Preventive Action, Cavanaugh, a former U.S. ambassador and special negotiator for conflicts in Eurasia, details how such a crisis could unfold and how greater collaboration with Russia could help prevent it. NagornoKarabakh last flared in April 2016, resulting in the worst bloodshed seen in the region in over twenty years, and the risk of either an inadvertent escalation along the line of contact or a deliberate provocation by either Azerbaijan or Armenia remains high. Cavanaugh warns of the potential reverberations: “Russia is committed by treaty to defend Armenia, Turkey has pledged to protect Azerbaijan, and Iran borders both nations and contains an Azerbaijani minority that far outnumbers the population of Azerbaijan itself.” The conflict could also imperil a new pipeline from Azerbaijan and Central Asia to Western markets that bypasses Russia and Iran. Cavanaugh, a professor of diplomacy and conflict resolution at the University of Kentucky, recommends that the United States work more actively with Russia on the Minsk Group peace process. The Minsk Group, led by the United States, Russia, and France under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation The Chronicle, Spring 2017
Armenian forces have controlled Nagorno-Karabakh since 1994. (Staff/Reuters)
in Europe (OSCE), “represents the leading area of U.S.-Russian cooperation with both nations promoting common, uncontestable goals: minimizing warfare and advancing a peaceful settlement.” Cavanaugh advocates that the co-chairs make better use of incentives and penalties, facilitate Turkey’s inclusion in periodic discussions, and apply pressure on Armenia and Azerbaijan. Implementing agreedupon confidence- and security-building measures, such as increasing the number of OSCE observers and creating an independent mechanism to investigate incidents, could help reduce the almost daily ceasefire violations. Intelligence sharing between the United States and Russia on regional military developments could also assuage concerns about whether strategic arms parity is being maintained. “By exhibiting the benefits of mutual collaboration, NagornoKarabakh could become a stepping stone for greater U.S.-Russia cooperation,” Cavanaugh asserts. Read the memorandum at www.cfr.org/nagornokarabakh. 15
Symposium Contemplates a New Era of U.S.-Russia Relations In mid-April, the Council hosted a symposium designed to help members and the media better understand the new era of relations between Russia and the West. Distinguished experts came from around the United States, Western Europe, and Russia to discuss Russia’s internal politics, its foreign policy, and policy options for the United States and Europe. The event was made possible with the generous support of the Hauser Foundation. “We live in a very dangerous situation also because twenty-five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, there’s precious little fear of a nuclear war. And I get the feeling that Russia is being handled as if it were not a nuclear power, or a nuclear superpower, and that, I think, is just dangerous.” —Dmitri Trenin, director, Carnegie Moscow Center
“In my mind, the best way to deal with the Russian ‘threat’ is to ask the $6 million question, ‘What are average Americans going to do to earn a living wage in 2025?’ Because if our societies continue to stumble because we have a large segment of disaffected voters, I think the Russians may well succeed in undermining the order that we’ve built. . . . So, in many respects, the best way to deal with Russia is getting our own house in order.” — Charles A. Kupchan, senior fellow, Council on Foreign Relations; former special assistant to the president and senior director for European affairs, National Security Council “What we’re seeing in Russia right now is the beginnings of a shift in the social contract . . . the social contract is no longer about economic prosperity, [in exchange for giving] up your political rights. It’s about Russia as a great power. ‘I will give you that if you give up some of your rights.’ It is a way to reframe the social contract and to push blame away from Putin himself from mismanaging the Russian economy.” —Alina Polyakova, director of research, Europe and Eurasia, Atlantic Council Watch the symposium events and read the transcript at www.cfr.org/events. The Chronicle, Spring 2017
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“If you look at where the audience is trending, people of color, people of diverse backgrounds actually will eventually become the majority of the United States. [The mainstream media] will have to appeal to that demographic,” observed Calvin Sims, a former CFR Edward R. Murrow press fellow.
CFR Conference Affirms the Need for Diversity in Foreign Policy “While America’s ethnic and racial makeup has changed dramatically in recent years, the ethnic and racial makeup of America’s foreign policy community has not kept pace. And that’s a loss for our country,” observed James M. Lindsay, senior vice president, director of studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg chair at the opening of CFR’s fifth annual Conference on Diversity in International Affairs. As part of CFR’s Diversity Initiative in Foreign Policy and in collaboration with the Global Access Pipeline and the International Career Advancement Program, the Council hosted a conference to encourage members of underrepresented groups to participate in the foreign policy debate and consider careers in foreign policy. Over two hundred participants came to CFR’s Washington office for networking The Chronicle, Spring 2017
opportunities, discussions about foreign policy issues, and one-on-one career-counseling sessions. Calvin Sims, president and chief executive officer of the International House and a former New York Times reporter, delivered the keynote remarks and stressed that especially in the media industry “the lack of diversity means that you’re not having a product that is as informative as it should be.” Sims also emphasized the need for young professionals to seek out mentors and for organizations to consider the full spectrum of diversity, including educational, cultural, ethnic, and racial diversity. This conference was made possible by the generous support of the Robina Foundation. Watch the event at www.cfr.org/diversity. 17
Corporate Members Discuss Globalization at Annual Conference This April, PayPal’s President and Chief Executive Officer Dan Schulman kicked off the annual Corporate Conference with a discussion on consumers’ relationship with globalization and the value of public-private partnerships. More than two hundred executives from over seventy member companies participated in a series of sessions that examined a variety of issues at the intersection of business and foreign policy, including geopolitical risk with President Richard N. Haass, the International Rescue Committee’s David Miliband, and Fortune’s Leigh Gallagher; the future of work with Google’s Caroline Atkinson, former U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica Groshen, and McKinsey’s James Manyika; and the global economic outlook with Princeton University’s Alan S. Blinder, Senior Fellow for Economics Kenneth S. Rogoff, and CFR Co-Chair and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin.
Dan Schulman
Richard N. Haass and David Miliband
For more information, visit www.cfr.org/corporate. Leigh Gallagher, Caroline Atkinson, Erica Groshen, and James Manyika
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CFR Celebrates Fiftieth Anniversary of the International Affairs Fellowship Former International Affairs Fellows (IAFs) Edward L. Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., Michelle Patron, director of sustainability policy at Microsoft Corporation, and Nigel Purvis, president and chief executive officer of Climate Advisers, kicked off this year’s IAF Conference with a discussion on U.S. energy policy. The session was moderated by Columbia University’s Jason Bordoff. Over 150 members, former IAFs, and guests gathered in New York on May 12 to celebrate the program’s fiftieth anniversary. By placing academic fellows in public service and policy-oriented settings and by placing government officials in scholarly settings, the IAF program has over the years bridged the gap between the study and making of U.S. foreign policy, creating over six hundred alumni. Participants at the conference discussed a diverse set of foreign policy issues, including lessons from Tunisia and Egypt for the Trump administration with Daniel P. Benaim of the Center for American Progress and Sarah E. Yerkes of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; a look ahead at U.S.-Africa diplomacy with Morgan J. O’Brien III of the U.S. Department of State and Matthew T. Page of the Centre for Democracy and Development; Japan’s national spending choices amid changing demographics with Tania M. Chacho of the U.S. Military Academy and Jennifer Friedman of GR Japan; counterterrorism in the Middle East and in cyberspace with Jim Golby of the office of the vice president and Adam Klein of the Center for a New American Security; emerging challenges in U.S.-Japan security cooperation with Christine The Chronicle, Spring 2017
Jason Bordoff, Edward L. Morse, Michelle Patron, and Nigel Purvis
University of Pennsylvania’s Michael C. Horowitz, Charles N. Edel, and Neil Narang
Parthemore of CLP Global LLC and Daryl G. Press of Dartmouth College; and the role of strategic planning in U.S. foreign policy with Charles N. Edel of the U.S. Naval War College and Neil Narang of the University of California, Santa Barbara. For more information, visit www.cfr.org/fellowships. 19
Fellowship Program Announces Three New International Affairs Fellowships The CFR Fellowship Program is pleased to announce the recipients of three new International Affairs Fellowships that were launched last summer. Placement confirmations are underway. The International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars, sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, offers tenured international relations professors handson and practical experience in the foreign policymaking field by placing selected fellows in U.S. government agencies or international government organizations for a period of one year. The 2017–2018 fellows are Masoud Kavoossi of Howard University, Helen Kinsella of the University of Wisconsin at Madison, David Lektzian of Texas Tech University, Kimberly Marten of Columbia University, and George Shambaugh of Georgetown University. The International Affairs Fellowship in Canada, funded by Paul Desmarais Jr., chairman and co-chief executive officer of the Power Corporation of Canada and a founding member of CFR’s Global Board of Advisors, provides each year one or two Americans the opportunity to spend six to twelve months at a Canadian institution to deepen their knowledge of Canada. The 2017–2018 fellow is Lindsay Rodman, formerly with the Office of the U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. The International Affairs Fellowship in International Economics, funded by Kimberly Querrey, cofounder and president of SQ Advisors, LLC, offers business economists as well as university-based economics scholars hands-on experience in the U.S. government. The 2017–2018 fellow is Sebnem KalemliOzcan from the University of Maryland.
Three New Companies Join the Corporate Program CFR welcomes three new corporate member companies, McKesson Corporation, the oldest and largest health care company in the country, Stephens, Inc., an independent financial services firm, and Chesapeake Energy, an onshore oil and natural gas company. These new members join the nearly 150 prominent companies that participate in The Chronicle, Spring 2017
CFR’s Corporate Program, which provides member-company executives with timely analysis on global issues and policy debates that affect their businesses. For more information, please contact the Corporate Program at 212.434.9684 or corporate@cfr.org.
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The Council Remembers David Rockefeller The Council on Foreign Relations mourns the loss of David Rockefeller, who was CFR’s honorary chairman, longest-serving member, and a pillar of the institution for more than half a century. Rockefeller began his lifelong association with the Council in 1941, quickly becoming the youngest member appointed to the board of directors. He served on the board for thirty-six years, twenty as vice president and fifteen as chairman. Rockefeller chaired CFR during years of great change and challenges. Without fail, he preserved the nonpartisan and independent leadership that had governed the Council since its founding. Under his tenure, from 1970 to 1985, CFR opened the process of selecting directors to election by the members, instituted a full-time chief executive officer, opened an office in Washington, DC, and embarked on an ambitious effort to enlarge and diversify our membership. Rockefeller was instrumental in the creation of the Council’s flagship International Affairs Fellowship program, which remains a revered training ground for the next generation of foreign policy leaders. Rockefeller’s deep involvement with and commitment to the Council continued after he became honorary chairman in 1985. In this capacity, he founded and led the Council’s International Advisory Board for a dozen years, spearheading a distinguished group of international statesmen and business leaders intent on invigorating international dialogue. As honorary chairman, he frequently represented the institution on trips abroad, leading delegations of CFR members across the globe. During his nearly eight decades of membership, Rockefeller participated in countless CFR meetings and led dozens of study and discussion groups on pressing foreign policy issues.
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“I can only say that I have had a wonderful life.” —David Rockefeller
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In recognition of Rockefeller’s many intellectual, financial, and leadership contributions, in 2005 the Council’s Studies Program was named in his honor. Home to more than seventy full-time, adjunct, and visiting scholars and practitioners, the David Rockefeller Studies Program embodies what Rockefeller considered to be the core of the Council’s mission: to add value to the public debate on international affairs. Beyond the Council, Rockefeller’s career was legendary. Widely respected for his lengthy career at the helm of Chase Manhattan, he was perhaps best known for his philanthropy and his involvement with numerous civic, cultural, educational, and research institutions. Among the ones he was most closely associated with were the Museum of Modern Art, Rockefeller University, and Harvard University. He was deeply committed to his native city of New York and played an important role in the revitalization of lower Manhattan. “David Rockefeller was a great American citizen and the epitome of an active CFR member.” said CFR Chairman Emeritus Peter G. Peterson. “He represented the best of this country, with his commitment to bettering the lives of ordinary people—be it through education, research, parkland and public space, or the arts.”
New York City Mayor Fiorello Laguardia with David Rockefeller in 1941
CFR Chairman Emeritus Peter G. Peterson with David Rockefeller
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New Council Members N E W YOR K AR E A
Mr. Ronald L. Allen NBC News Mr. Andrew M. Alper Alper Investments, Inc. Mr. James L. Amine Credit Suisse Ms. Ekpedeme M. Bassey BlackRock Ms. Frances G. Beinecke Natural Resources Defense Council Ms. Sundaa A. Bridgett-Jones IAF, T The Rockefeller Foundation Mr. Mark Colodny Warburg Pincus LLC
Ms. Maria Pica Karp Chevron Corporation
Pilar Ramos, Esq. Mastercard
Mark E. Plotkin, Esq. Covington & Burling LLP
Mr. Jonathan F.P. Rose Jonathan Rose Companies LLC
Dr. Christopher A. Preble Cato Institute
Mr. Adam Silver National Basketball Association
Ms. Staci Warden Milken Institute
Mr. Ercument Tokat Centerview Partners
Colonel Robert L. Wilson, USA National Security Council
Daniel H. Weiss, PhD Metropolitan Museum of Art
Mr. Charles W. Yost II T Central Intelligence Agency
Mr. Strauss H. Zelnick Zelnick Media Capital
Mr. Glenn A. Youngkin The Carlyle Group
WA SH I NGTON, DC , ARE A
Ms. Lisa J. Donahue AlixPartners, LLP
Ms. Laura Winthrop Abbot U.S. Department of State
Ms. Patricia M. Duff The Common Good Ms. Arlene P. Getz Thomson Reuters Mr. Shawn P.M. Golhar Barclays
Mr. Marc Morial National Urban League
T
Ms. Catherine M. Keating Commonfund Ms. Georgia Levenson Keohane Pershing Square Foundation Ms. Younghee Kim Wait Wait Family Office Dr. Robert L. Klitzman Columbia University Mr. Thomas D. Lehrman T Haystack Partners Ms. Terri L. Ludwig Enterprise Community Partners, Inc. The Honorable Carolyn B. Maloney U.S. House of Representatives Ms. Marjorie Miller Associated Press Louise Mirrer, PhD New-York Historical Society Former International Affairs Fellow F Former Fellow T Former Term Member Affiliations are current as of February 2017. IAF
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NAT I O NAL IAF, T
Joel F. Brenner, PhD MIT Center for International Studies
Mr. Marc Allen The Boeing Company
James D. Fearon, PhD Stanford University
Mr. Hady A. Amr T U.S. Department of State
Ms. Jennifer Fonstad Aspect Ventures
Brigadier General Leo A. Brooks Jr., USA (Ret) The Boeing Company
Ms. Alexandra Harney IAF, T Thomson Reuters
Captain Charles L. Cashin III, USCG F U.S. Coast Guard The Honorable Arnold A. Chacon U.S. Department of State Mr. Patrick M. Dewar The Trenton Group, LLC Mr. Jamie M. Fly T Office of U.S. Senator Marco Rubio The Honorable Jimmy J. Kolker U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Ms. Florizelle B. Liser Corporate Council on Africa Mr. Arshad A. Mohammed Thomson Reuters Brigadier General Mark W. Odom, USA U.S. Army Vice Admiral Frank C. Pandolfe, USN Joint Chiefs of Staff
Dr. Valerie M. Hudson Texas A&M University The Honorable Eric L. Johnson Texas House of Representatives Mr. Alex S. Jones Daily Chatter LLC Mr. Kenneth J. Kelley Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health Vanessa B. Kerry, MD, MSc T Seed Global Health Ms. Gisel Kordestani Crowdpac Inc. Douglas J. Kramer, Esq. CloudFlare, Inc. Colonel Sean P. Larkin, USAF F U.S. Air Force Mr. Philip F. Maritz Maritz, Wolff & Co. Mr. William B. McNulty III Team Rubicon Global, Ltd.
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Dr. Leslye Obiora University of Arizona Mr. Thomas L. Pearson Cohesive Capital Partners Mr. Timothy R. Pearson Pearson Advisors and Partners Professor Lamin Sanneh Yale Divinity School The Honorable Dana Shell Smith U.S. Embassy in Doha Valerie A. Smith, PhD Swarthmore College Mr. Paul H. Stebbins World Fuel Services Corporation Admiral Kurt W. Tidd, USN U.S. Southern Command Ms. Robin L. Washington Gilead Sciences, Inc. Captain Thomas R. Williams II, USN T U.S. Navy Rabbi David Wolpe Sinai Temple
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