Inside The Buy-side® 1Q13

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INSIDE THE BUY-SIDE®

FIRST QUARTER| ISSUE DATE: JANUARY 15, 2013

Despite pre-election uncertainty,

year-end fiscal cliff fears and ongoing European sovereign debt issues, U.S. equities staged a strong finish for 2012. For the year, the Dow gained 7%, the S&P 500 added 13%, marking the index’s largest annual return since 2009 and fourth largest return in the last decade and the NASDAQ climbed 16% after logging a decline of 1.8% in 2011. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 Index, a barometer for small-caps, rose 15%.

By Sector

4, 10% 4, 10% 20, 53%

4, 10% 3, 8% 1, 3% each

In our ongoing quest to remain at the forefront of current trends in investor sentiment, we recently conducted interviews with 38 global financial professionals across multiple industry segments and investment styles. Participating institutions aggregately manage upwards of $1.8 trillion in equity assets.

By Investment Style

5, 13%

7, 18%

Investor tone can best be described as tempered optimism. With the U.S. Presidential Election in the rear view mirror, easing fears over Europe and China and fiscal cliff (Part I) resolved, the buy side now turns their attention to the debt ceiling, earnings and current year guidance. An analyst1 sums up general sentiment, “There is clearly a lot of uncertainty but there are good things happening in the world”.

As earnings season gets underway, most investors predict that fourth quarter results should be in line with already muted expectations. Focus will be on growth expectations for 2013 with several noting that while “companies have been ruthless in cutting costs and expanding margins…the ability to trim excess fat in the next year will become more difficult, as much of the fat has already been cut”.

Generalist Technology Multi Industrials Fixed Income Energy Healthcare Retail

4, 11% 3, 8% 13, 34% 1, 3%

3, 8% 2, 5%

Core Growth GARP Core Value Growth Hedge Fund Fixed Income Deep Value Aggr. Gr.

By Country

12, 31%

24, 63%

1, 3%

US Europe Asia Australia

1, 3%

1

Growth, Industrials

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Key Trends 

Investors forecast muted results for 4Q12 following a mostly disappointing 3Q12; looking forward, top-line growth is of keen interest along with quality of earnings

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Management tone is characterized as “more negative” from an already cautious stance

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As companies prepare to provide annual guidance, study contributors expect 2013 outlooks to be conservative; management insight into the spending environment, cost cutting initiatives and 2013 guidance is sought

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Investor sentiment has ticked up from last quarter amid views that the Euro situation is “largely reflected in the markets”, China is staging a resurgence and the after-math of builtup demand in the wake of the fiscal cliff resolution should begin to play out

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Investors generally opine that the government “kicked the can the down road” and failed to address the “debt ceiling, sequestration and our spending problems, which are completely out of control”; indeed Washington dysfunction remains a leading concern

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Continuing the previous quarter’s trend, financial professionals largely see organic and EPS growth metrics staying the same or worsening while cash flow growth is expected to improve

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In our ongoing research on investor preferences for uses of excess free cash, a penchant for buybacks and reinvestment gained significant ground; still, dividends remain the preferred option “even with the tax law changes”

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Despite a slew of special dividend announcements from corporate America during December,2 the vast majority of canvassed professionals indicate special dividends do not impact their investment decisions

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Finally, contributing investors note that outside of fundamentals, management quality, sustainable competitive advantages and market position top the list of qualitative investment factors “Overall, the fiscal cliff resolution was a copout; it only focused on one aspect and it wasn’t even the aspect that was the most critical part of it. The government put a Band-Aid on it and kicked the can down the road. The political issue right now has become an even bigger problem because as we saw, we could barely get a deal done on the revenue side and that was at the last possible moment. To be able to cut entitlements that basically elect half of the current political party will be a problem.

We have formed a society that likes the handouts and we continue to push this. With regulation and everything else, we can’t continue to go down this path; otherwise,

2

483 companies announced special dividends during December bringing the 2012 total to 1,056, the most since 1973 (Source: WSJ Online)

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we will destroy corporate America as we know it, which provides a lot of the jobs.” – Core Growth, Generalist VIII

“I do not have much confidence in the government being able to get anything done in a timely manner. The deal is reasonable for now; we averted the worst of it but the next few months could get a little ugly with the debt ceiling and spending reduction talks.” – Core Growth, Technology/Industrials II

3Q12 Earnings “Worse Than Expected” And 4Q12 Results Predicted To Be “Soft” With revenue misses dominating headlines last quarter, the vast majority of investors, or 80%, affirms that 3Q12 earnings results came in worse than expected and advise, “Caution is still merited”.

“Unfortunately, the ones that I follow came in worse than expected pretty much across the board.” – Hedge Fund, Energy “In general, companies seem like they are a little bit on edge, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a reset of expectations. Some of the shorter cycle companies that I cover that put out stuff on a monthly basis are coming in worse than expected; many are on edge because of the fiscal cliff and the uncertainty around what the government is going to be doing.” – Growth, Industrials “Results were in line to slightly worse.” – Deep Value, Generalist II Uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff, which investors assert “resulted in a knee-jerk reaction” of halted purchasing and extended CAPEX cycles will likely lead to muted 4Q12 results. Still, some maintain that companies tied to the housing market/home improvement will fare well.

“We are in a declining trend so the question is when will you reach the end of the trend? It is not necessarily expectations of improvement; it is expectations of declining rates of decline.” – Hedge Fund, Energy “The numbers may come in slightly below but not much lower because most of the companies have taken numbers down so they can come in line with the numbers given what the situation is. The election is behind us now; it is only the fiscal cliff.”

– Core Value, Technology

“I expect the fourth quarter to be similar to last quarter; that is, in line to slightly worse.” – Deep Value, Generalist II “Our expectations are that this whole fiscal cliff mess is going to screw up the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. We will probably enter a recession.” – Core Growth, Generalist III

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In general, investors report they will be focused on: 

Top-line growth

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2013 guidance

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Quality of earnings

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Comments on market growth, customer spending

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Cost cutting initiatives “I will be looking at the quality of the numbers they report for the actual quarter and then the guidance that they report.” – GARP, Healthcare/Industrials/Telecom “For the companies I follow, I will be focused on what they say about the spending environment from their customers and whether they are seeing their customers hold back spending because of this fiscal cliff.” – Core Growth, Technology/Industrials “I will be looking at the prospects for top-line revenue growth and the costs they are taking out. I am looking at the source of earnings, whether it is coming from the topline, organic growth or if they are taking a lot of costs out of the system and using that to drive earnings growth.” – Deep Value, Generalist I

Meanwhile, 86% of the group surmises that 2013 guidance will be “conservative” given continued uncertainty and slow-to-accelerate U.S. growth. As one investor3 forecasts, “It will be lower on revenue but earnings will be okay”.

“I think companies will be cautious with their guidance and rightfully so.” – Growth, Industrials

“They will come in lower just given the conservative nature management teams are likely to take regarding all of these political uncertainties. It will be lower on revenues but earnings will be okay.” – Core Growth, Technology/Industrials “It will be quite conservative. Companies will be restricting themselves in what kind of guidance they need to give given the situation in Europe and likely constrained economic growth in the U.S.” – Core Value, Technology

Management Tone Described as “More Negative” A majority of investors across sectors4 report that management tone has moved from “cautious” to “more negative” with one5 noting, “They have been talking everyone down since the third 3

Core Growth, Technology/Industrials Energy, Healthcare, Technology and Industrials 5 Deep Value, Generalist II 4

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quarter”. The remainder asserts that management sentiment has remained somewhat downbeat or continued to grow more cautious. As a buy side analyst6 comments, “They have been concerned about issues and they remain concerned”. Of note, no one reports that executives are “less negative” in their discussions.

Previous Quarter

Current Quarter

More Negative 19%

The Same (Still Cautious) 44%

Less Negative 25%

More Negative 73%

The Same (Still Cautious) 18% More Uncertain 9%

More Uncertain 12%

“If I had to extrapolate their tone on conference calls then I would say it is a little more conservative than they probably would normally be.” – Core Growth, Technology/Industrials

“They stayed the same with a slightly pessimistic tone.” – Core Value, Technology “In energy they are more negative.” – Hedge Fund, Energy Meanwhile, investors report that management discussions have centered on: 

Short-term macro economic factors that are materially affecting their end markets

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Fiscal cliff and decision to “tighten up CAPEX budgets”

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Long-term strategy and positioning “On a recent earnings call, a company said, ‘We are doing everything we can to sell to our customers. A very high percentage of them have come back to us saying they are really concerned about the fiscal cliff and are tightening up their CAPEX budgets so they are not going to spend the money right now’. That’s a general flavor of the feedback we’re getting. There is a tremendous amount of economic uncertainty and customers are a little tighter on the purse strings right now, which directly translates into sales for every company out there.” – GARP, Healthcare/Industrials/Telecom

6

Growth, Generalist

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“I do notice that we end up talking a lot about the short-term because no one really knows and so we are trying to sound it out. The management teams are reasonable in terms of addressing some of the longer-term issues. In my conversations, that’s what we talk most about.” – Growth, Technology

Despite Management Managing Expectations, Investors Are Cautiously Optimistic, Bullish Even Despite more conservative messaging from management teams, surveyed investors report their sentiment has improved with just 20% maintaining a bearish stance compared to 40% last quarter and 13% describing their outlook as bullish. Similar to last quarter’s findings, 60%, report they have a cautiously optimistic view. “There is pent-up demand” notes one investor7, adding, “If people aren’t ordering purely because they are nervous then we could see a situation where we get past the fiscal cliff and people feel more secure”.

Trend In Investor Sentiment: Less Bearish Previous Quarter

Current Quarter Bearish 20%

Cautiously Optimistic 60%

Bearish 40%

Cautiously Optimistic 60%

Bullish 13% Neutral 7%

“I am cautiously optimistic unless things become materially worse in Europe. I believe China will be better in 2013 and 2014 than it was in 2012. My view on China is somewhat sanguine from the perspective of economic growth but I have a great deal of concern that its political system is irretrievably corrupt and that it will be an issue at some point.” – Hedge Fund, Energy “A minimal amount of economic activity will occur in Europe no matter what.

Hopefully, we are trudging along the bottom there. China has a new regime in place and I imagine they are going to do things to spur economic growth in that region.

The U.S. economy will rebound if the government gets its act together and passes something sensible. U.S. consumers seem relatively optimistic in most of the sentiment surveys and we could end up with a decent rebound.” – Growth, Industrials “We are pretty neutral given that realities are not always reflected in the stock market. Having to have a balanced portfolio, you can’t always go in with just one 7

Growth, Industrials

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thought process. Hence, we are market neutral right now.” – Core Growth, Generalist III

Sector Snapshot

Bearish Banks Utilities

Bullish Telecom

Technology Energy Consumer Disc.

Industrials

Healthcare Commodities Materials Insurance

“I am slightly bullish on healthcare and am neutral to slightly negative on industrials and telecom. With regard to telecom, the growth prospects for the industry as a whole simply don’t meet what we have as our threshold hurdle. We are not that excited and there are not many opportunities that we find compelling. As far as industrials, we are neutral to slightly bearish just based on our thesis that the economy is slowing and that those companies are highly levered. Most likely, you will get greater margin compression in a downturn. Valuations have further to fall in that sector. In healthcare, we tend to find more long-term, higher growth opportunities that are a little more resilient to economic cycles such that we feel it offers a little more protection in an eventual downturn.” – GARP, Healthcare/Industrials/Telecom

“Technology has always been one of the cheapest segments of the market relative to its growth and FCF prospects so it has been a place where we’ve been overweight and found many great names that we’re excited about. I don’t see the fiscal cliff doing any more than causing short-term uncertainty, which could provide a chance to own more. That said, I’m not sure the whole market is cheap but for technology it is.” – Growth, Technology “I cover consumer staples, business services and advertising. I am neutral overall.

It does not seem like there are many opportunities for revenue growth in the developed markets. It is hard for me to envision a scenario where these companies will be able to continue to realize productivity improvements in the next several years. At some point in time, we need the top-line to kick in. I am not sure when that is going to happen. Outside of that, some stocks are still pretty cheap and are giving free cash flow back to shareholders. From a valuation standpoint, some stocks are attractive but outside of that construct it is hard to see how they will grow.” – Deep Value, Generalist I

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Global Concerns Take A Back Seat To Washington Dysfunction While the fiscal cliff loomed large as a concern heading up to the January 1, 2013 agreement, investors remain concerned about Washington policy and political brinkmanship while uncertainty related to the continuing debate on the debt ceiling and threat of sequestration is top of mind.

Sovereign debt and balance sheets in Europe remain an issue albeit to a lesser extent as “the resolution to the euro crisis is on track”. Meanwhile, China, which topped Corbin Perception’s investor concerns list last quarter, is no longer an overriding fear for surveyed investors. Flush with cash and a new political regime in place, investors note that “things have been put in motion to develop the economy” and while it “won’t go back to the heavy 9% GDP…it will still be a leader in terms of global growth”.8 A challenging macroeconomic environment and its impact on top-line growth continue to trouble 25% of surveyed investors, a group comprising mainly technology analysts and generalists.

Rounding out the list is global political unrest, specifically with regard to the Middle East and North Korea.

Top Investor Concerns 2Q12

3Q12

European Crisis U.S. Political Paralysis Pause In U.S. Momentum Margin Pressures China Slowdown

European Crisis U.S. Political Paralysis Pause In U.S. Momentum Margin Pressures China Slowdown

4Q12

Current

China Slowdown European Crisis Fiscal Cliff U.S. Equity Valuations Violent Unrest

Fiscal Cliff (Partially Resolved) Washington Policy, Brinkmanship European Crisis Challenging Macro/Muted Growth Global Political Unrest

“Since the European economy situation has been going on for so long and although I don’t want to say that the worst is behind us, the situation is largely reflected in the markets at this point.” – Core Growth, Retail 8

1/10/13: China’s exports beat expectations after jumping 14.1% on year in December and showed a marked improvement from a 2.9% rise in November as the growth in sales to the U.S. and EU accelerated. Imports increased 6% while the trade surplus surged 61% on month to $31.6B, well above consensus of $19.6B.

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“Europe is a disaster but it is more stabilized now than it has been over the past three years. Currently, I am less concerned about Europe being a driver for what we do right now. I am more concerned about the policies coming out of Washington.”

– Core Growth, Generalist III

“I have a huge concern over the debt but I have very limited concern over the debt ceiling. They will make a deal on the debt ceiling but there will be no deal made on the debt.” – Core Growth, Generalist VI “China will be the only bright spot that will try to make up for the weaknesses here in the U.S. People have exposure into China as they transform from a capital goods economy to a consumer-based economy. That’s not going to happen overnight but looking at companies exposed to the consumer in China is something we should all be doing.” – Core Growth, Generalist III

Call On Performance Metrics: More Of The Same In our quarterly channel check on performance metrics, investor expectations remain consistent with last quarter’s findings, specifically: 

Most investors believe organic growth and EPS growth will continue to worsen

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Views on FCF growth remain upbeat Organic Growth

EPS Growth

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

FCF Growth

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3Q12

Improving

4Q12

Staying the Same

1Q13

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

Worsening

“There are some companies out there that will continue to grow but I would say, in terms of organic growth, it will definitely slow.” – Core Growth, Generalist III “It depends on whether people use their cash to buy back stock because EPS is not coming organically.” – Deep Value, Generalist II “Believe it or not, FCF growth will probably improve.” – Deep Value, Generalist I

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Cash Payouts Remain Top Preference But Share Buybacks Making A Comeback Dividends remain investors’ top pick for uses of free cash flow though euphoria over cash payouts has waned somewhat, receding to 57% from 71% last quarter, likely reflecting concerns about potential tax law changes in 2013.

With the spate of special dividends announced prior to year-end, Corbin Perception sought to gain insight into investor views on the topic: 

81% | Do not have an impact on investment decisions with investors universally noting such an event would not make them more inclined to purchase a stock

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56% | A good signal for companies who can

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22% | Prefer sustainable, consistent dividends “I like companies that see that there are times when they have too much cash and if there aren’t attractive acquisition opportunities then special dividends are a perfectly fine and smart thing to do.” – Core Value, Industrials

Meanwhile, interest surges in buybacks and reinvestment as best uses of excess capital. M&A remains a preference for 29% of the group, generally in line with last quarter’s findings. No contributor mentions debt reduction as a best use this quarter potentially signaling that investors feel increasingly more comfortable about companies’ financial shape.

Free Cash Flow Preferences - Quarterly Trend

71%

3Q12 4Q12

52%

57%

50%

Current 21%

29%

43% 21% 24%

42%

42% 29% 29% 6%

Dividends

Buybacks

Reinvestment

M&A

0%

Debt Reduction

“Assuming there is no M&A opportunity, my preferences are 1) boost the dividend, 2) share repurchases and 3) special dividend.” – Hedge Fund, Energy “Companies should give it back to shareholders. We do not have a preference between buybacks or dividend; we like both options. We definitely want cash

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returned to shareholders but how it is returned depends on the valuation of the stock.” – Deep Value, Generalist I “Ideally, we like companies that allocate capital towards projects that have a higher return than their weighted average cost of capital and ideally toward the highest return on investment projects. That may be an acquisition, greenfield expansion or CAPEX. If they don’t have good opportunities available to them, then we would prefer that they return it to us because we can find investments where we can earn a return on capital above cost of capital.” – Growth, Industrials “Depending on the company, if there are M&A opportunities and you can improve your return on capital that is accretive, that is the number one route to go. If you are not repurchasing at least 3% plus of your stock annually then you are better off returning that to shareholders in the form of a dividend. If you are not buying back enough of your stock, you are not doing much in terms of EPS. A 1% or 2% dividend has a much greater impact to an investor than improving the EPS by 1% or 2 %.” – Core Growth, Retail

And Speaking Of Cash…

When asked their thoughts about companies with cash overseas, 67% assert the government must “fix the tax policy”, with several adding that they are not in favor of a repatriation holiday. The remainder encourages corporations to “make acquisitions in emerging or overseas markets”.

“I am fatigued by companies acting like they can’t physically return cash because they would have to pay taxes on it; if there were investments to be had then they could. It’s not as if something is preventing them. It’s as if they have an allergy to taxes, which I understand from the standpoint of preserving the value of the franchise. I am not in favor of the repatriation holiday for companies to buy back stock. Until our tax code is fixed, there will be companies who feel it is their life’s work to avoid taxes. It would be nice if the U.S. fixed their tax code. I do think it is an issue because there is too much cash stored overseas and they can’t use it to do things here. To be fair, it is not that they physically can’t, they just don’t want to pay taxes.” – Core Value, Industrials “I wish our government would fix its tax policy and allow the money to be brought back here. It is absurd that they are not. I would encourage companies to hold their cash overseas because chances are that’s where they will invest it, especially with what’s going on here. It would be irrational for them to repatriate cash and pay a huge tax to invest it here or to pay shareholders. I hope they don’t do that. I hope the government fixes that but I’m not sure that it will. It is frustrating.” – Growth, Technology

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Outside of Fundamentals, Investors Turn To Qualitative Factors In our ongoing effort to assist companies in effectively positioning their investment thesis to the financial community, we asked buy side contributors what key qualitative factors they focus on when evaluating a company as an investment. 

95% | Management quality, strength

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53% | Sustainable competitive advantages

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26% | Market position, share

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26% | Strategy

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21% | Underlying industry trends/business characteristics “I consider management, the strategy and competitive advantages. What is their moat? It’s not just about numbers. Are they competitive and can they sustain it?

For our process, that factor has a 30% to 40% weighting.” – Core Growth, Technology/Industrials

“We spend a lot of time looking at the industry and company dynamics and thinking about why companies earn excess returns and how they will be able to maintain those in the future. That gets down to things like how easy it is for competitors to come in, the level of industry rivalry in the market, the business model that is employed and why that creates a defensible margin structure or not.” – Growth, Technology

“Other things I consider are management, if the company is a leader or laggard and if the company is best in breed. Another consideration is if a company that has under-performed for some time has now started to show signs of improving its business.” – Core Growth, Retail Interestingly, 54% of surveyed investors report they have a system in place that rates management quality. While largely a qualitative assessment, factors include: 

Consistent execution, long-term value creation –

Focus on return metrics

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Honesty, integrity and trustworthiness

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Straightforward, transparent communication

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Moral and ethical standards (i.e., social responsibility measures)9

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67% comprise European institutions

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“I evaluate management through listening to the conference calls, understanding the language in which they speak, how they measure performance internally, how they reward people compensation-wise and how they discuss their business with investors, i.e., their strategy, how they execute it and how they plan it out. There is no science or formula to it; you just have to listen to management on conference calls and in meetings and ask them questions about their business in order to form an assessment on quality.” – GARP, Healthcare/Industrials/Telecom “We have soft criteria. We look for management teams that understand returns on invested capital, how to allocate capital and how value is created over time.”

– Growth, Industrials

“We look at how managements have generated return on the assets employed and return on the equity employed over time.” – Growth, Technology “Very simply, we just want people who we can trust and whom we feel aligned with as passive minority institutional shareholders. We want them to be talented at what they do. Honesty and integrity are critical to us.” – Core Value, Generalist I Meanwhile, 94% of the study group reports that management quality is important to critical to their investment decisions.

IR Best Practice: Investor Presentations Best-in-class presentations tell a clear story as to why an investor should own the stock. They do not just present information about the company; rather; they telegraph the investment thesis through clearly outlining the strategy, highlighting core competencies and demonstrating management’s track record of creating value.

Indeed, surveyed financial professionals report they frequently refer to investor presentations as a leading source of information. As such, the content should be robust enough so that an investor or analyst, who does not have the benefit of speaker notes, can follow the storyline without having to hear the pitch.

Select best practices include: 

Ensure your slide deck is professional-looking and crisp; consistent formatting and alignment with brand guidelines is recommended

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Develop a theme and storyline (e.g., “stability plus growth”), as well as critical messages; reiterate throughout the presentation

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Communicate a balanced message that addresses both challenges, as well as highlights strengths

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Be sure to clearly outline sustainable competitive advantages and company differentiators (i.e., what makes your company unique)

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Be careful about focusing too much on valuation and communicating how an investor should evaluate your company; rather, clearly identify how your strategy is going to lead to longterm shareholder value creation, provide longer-term financial objectives or goals and demonstrate a consistent execution track record

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Incorporate lead-ins and takeaways, as they are an effective tool to sum up a complex slide and reiterate key points

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Use acronyms sparingly; while long-time followers and sector-specific analysts may be used to it, excessive jargon often serves to complicate the story

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When developing an effective investor presentation, the following elements are critical: –

Company overview

–

Financial highlights

–

Market overview, including competitive landscape and positioning (current challenges, solutions)

–

Strategy, including progress updates

–

Business model/financials

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Business segment deep dives, including market, strategy and competitive differentiators

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Key product/service overviews

–

High level growth initiatives, platforms

–

Capital allocation plans, including M&A strategy

–

Guidance/long-term financial objectives

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Recently, investors have been acutely focused on operational excellence; when communicating efficiency measures, tie back to financial metrics (e.g., improvement in working capital turns, higher free cash flow generation)

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When appropriate, address industry and macro trends; assist investors with understanding impact on business by walking them through “what if” scenario analyses “I am interested in sustainable, competitive advantages and understanding what they are. What makes a company special? A company should articulate what is special

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about itself, what it really does well, what it excels at and what creates and sustains a competitive advantage.” – Core Value, Generalist I “What I really like to hear is what the company thinks about the business. I like to see a clear delineation of the strategy. I like to see how the company looks at the market and segments the market, and I want to know how much the company thinks the markets are growing. I like to hear an honest discussion of where it thinks it can improve and not just highlights of where it thinks it is strong. I like to see a clear discussion of financial strategy. I like to hear an honest and clear discussion of the tactical approach for whatever time period the company is discussing.” – Core Growth, Generalist III

Corbin Perception specializes in developing industry-leading investor presentations. For more information, contact Sarah Putnam at sarah.putnam@corbinperception.com.

Proven Methodology, Proven Results Corbin Perception is an IR research and advisory firm assisting public companies with unlocking their full market potential. We recognize the positive impact best-in-class investor relations has on valuation and partner with our clients to develop strategies that positively influence investor perception.

Our comprehensive approach to research-driven counsel enables our clients to capture investor mindshare and differentiate their company as an investment. We have deep functional and industry expertise as well as a strong and consistent execution track record of value creation.

Our core Advisory Services include: 

Perception Studies



Investor Presentation Development



Strategy Development, Communication



Investor Day Strategy and Execution



IR Diagnostic Reviews



IR Strategy

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