Industrial Sentiment Survey - October 2017

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3Q17 Earnings Primer Industrial Sentiment Survey October 19, 2017 CORBINADVISORS.COM

Inside The Buy-side® Industrial Sentiment Survey

Issue Date: October 19, 2017

For over a decade, we have surveyed global investors and analysts on the equity markets, world economies and business climate. We share our research broadly with corporate executives, investor relations (IR) professionals and the financial community.

Market Performance

Survey scope: 30 investors and analysts globally; buyside firms manage $287B in assets and have $35B invested in Industrials

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3Q17

YTD

S&P 500

3.9%

13.9%

S&P Industrial

3.7%

14.0%

1

As of 10’11’17

We can change to as of 10’13’17 once data is in

Survey timeframe: Sep. 14 – Oct. 11, 2017

Role

Sector Focus

Region 77%

N.A. 33%

43% 57%

Europe 67%

Asia Latin America

Buy Side

Sell Side

Industrials

13% 7% 3%

Generalist

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Word Cloud: Frequency of Occurrence

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Key Findings: Industrial Sentiment Remains Elevated; Sector Expected to Overcome Rising Costs and Geopolitical Uncertainty #1

Investors Expect Strong 3Q17 Industrial Results, Marking the Fourth Consecutive Quarter of Upbeat Sector Sentiment; Hurricane Impact/Recovery Seen as Wildcard Heading into Year-end

§ Nearly 90% expect Industrial earnings to meet or exceed consensus, with over half expecting beats; 66% predict

sequential improvement § Management tone remains positive; outright bulls see an uptick while those classifying executive messaging as Neutral to

Bullish or Bullish decrease to 84% from 88% last quarter § Over 60% remain Neutral to Bullish or Bullish toward Industrials, a slight sequential increase and the most upbeat tone

recorded since survey inception1 § Mother Nature’s influence…most expect Harvey & Irma recovery efforts will be a boon to 2018 U.S. GDP though nearly

60% expect hurricane impact to have negative implications on 4Q17 results

#2

Growth Expected to Continue into 2018 Though Investors Believe We Are Approaching Mid-to-Late Cycle; Majority Now Consider Industrial Stocks Fairly Valued

§ 41% believe we are Mid-to-Late in the Industrial cycle, an increase from 29% last quarter § More than half classify Industrial equities as Fairly Valued; the Overvalued camp shrinks to 35% from 54% § No signs of deceleration; 71% expect U.S. GDP to improve over the next six months, nearly doubling from last quarter; 69%

anticipate 4.0% to 5.0% industrial organic growth in 2018, an improvement from expectations of 3.0% to 4.0% for 2017 § Nearly 75% anticipate revenue growth to improve in 2018 versus 2017 with global capex expected to increase over the next

six months; Brazil sees massive spike in sentiment after posting second consecutive quarter of GDP growth

#3

It’s a Zoo Out There! D.C. Tug-o-War, Geopolitics Remain Top of Mind; Defense Sector the Largest Potential Beneficiary

§ Primary concerns include: 1) government ineptitude; 2) geopolitical concerns, with emphasis on escalating N. Korea

tensions; 3) interest rate hikes § 95% expect geopolitical volatility to Stay the Same or Worsen, while only 22% expect the Washington D.C. political scene

to Improve § Over 80% expect Defense to Grow Faster than GDP, the second highest sentiment ever recorded for any sub-sector,

trailing only Resi. Construction in Dec. 2015 1

Jun. 2015

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Most Bullish Earnings Sentiment since Survey Inception Expectations Regarding 3Q17 Earnings Performance Relative to Consensus

Tough Comps

Services Management Tone Sep '16 48%

Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17

52%

58%

63% 48%

43%

52% Hurricanes Price/cost

35%

29% 21%

21%

Sep '17

8% Better Than

87%

In Line

Expect In Line to Better Than Consensus Results

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13% 4% 5%

Worse Than

66%

Expect Sequential Improvement

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Fewer Expect KPIs to Improve than Prior Quarter Following All-time Highs; Revenue and EPS Still Expected to Be Strong, While Cash Flow and Margins More Muted Key Performance Indicators Revenue

80% 80%

84%

EPS Growth 79%

65%

66% 41%

37%

39% 15%

Improving

20% 10%

Staying the Same

22% 5%

10%

36%

15%

8%

Worsening

Improving

Cash Flow

25%

19% 8%

Staying the Same

4%

Worsening

Operating Margins 71%

71% 45% 48%

17%15%

46%

42%

36% 36% 25%

25%

19% 16%

50%

48%

44% 31%

39%

36% 25%

12%

8%

4% Improving

Staying the Same

Improving

Worsening

Dec '16

Mar '17

19%

Jun '17

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Staying the Same

4%

Worsening

Sep '17 6

Similar to Overall Market Sentiment, Expectations Are for Continued Industrial Strength in 2018, While Margin Expansion Outlooks More Tempered Expectations for 2018 Versus 2017

EPS Growth

76%

Revenue

74%

Cash Flow

Operating Margins

20%

16%

64%

10%

36%

48%

Improving

4%

40%

Staying The Same

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12%

Worsening

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Commentary on Earnings Expectations Vs. Consensus Better Than

In Line

“Jobs creation.” Buy Side, Industrials, N. America

“Seeing improvement but 3Q may lack the upside of previous quarters.” Buy Side, Industrials, N.

“Inflection in end markets (e.g., Fluids, Oil & Gas capex, Aerospace, Non-Resi Construction, Machinery).” Buy Side, Industrials, N. America “There is still strong industrial order momentum, currency swinging to a tailwind offset by some further raw materials cost increases (mostly taken care of due to price increases) and hurricane headwind.” Buy Side, Industrials, N. America “The wild card is the storm's impact. Outside of that, they will come in above but that is the wild card.”

Buy Side, Generalist, N. America

America

“Expectations have been reduced to more realistic levels.” Buy Side, Generalist, N. America “Improving manufacturing PMI series.” Sell Side, Industrials, Europe

Worse Than “Cost inflation, weak pricing, hurricane impact.” Buy Side, Industrials, N. America

“Hurricane disruptions, price/cost headwinds.” Buy

“Industrial economy seems to be improving slightly.”

Side, Industrials, N. America

Sell Side, Industrials, N. America

“The impact from hurricanes.” Sell Side, Generalist,

“Calendar effect holding back growth in Q2 while this swings back in Q3 and underlying growth has accelerated.” Sell Side, Industrials, Europe

N. America

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Perceived Executive Tone and Investor Sentiment Remain Near All-Time High Levels

Investor Sentiment

17%

23%

Management Tone 61%

19%

24%

84%

Bullish

42%

Neutral to Bullish

38%

Neutral Neutral to Bearish

69%

60%

12% Sep '17

Bearish

20% 31% 17% 4%

8%

8% 4%

Jun '17

Sep '17

Jun '17

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4%

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Short- and Long-cycle Products See Slight Pullbacks, While Services Expected to Accelerate

Short-cycle Products 4% 7% 7%

5%

5% 29%

Long-cycle Products

15%

10%

5%

Services

9%

30%

29%

33% 30%

40%

4% 35%

43% 55%

46%

22%

75% 71% 52%

44%

11%

20%

14%

4%

Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 Sep '17

Strongly Accelerate

52%

62% 50%

63%

Remain the Same

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57%

36%

9% 3% Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 Sep '17

Accelerate Somewhat

55% 45%

4%

10%

Dec '16 Mar '17 Jun '17 Sep '17

Decelerate Somewhat

Strongly Decelerate

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Industrials Increasingly Viewed as Fairly Valued; Half Report Holding Stocks, While Net Buyers See a Slight Uptick

U.S. Industrials Equity Valuation Classification

QoQ Investment Trends

50%

Sep '16 8%

44%

48% 38%

Dec '16

12%

47%

41%

33% 32%

29%

Mar '17 12%

Jun '17

48%

17%

29%

40%

23%

36%

25% 21%

54%

9% 4%

Sep '17

13%

52%

Under

Fairly

0%

35%

Over

Net Buyer

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Net Seller

Holding

Rotating

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Anticipated Infrastructure and Tax Reform Still Tailwinds; Majority Suggest Some Infrastructure Upside Is Already Baked in

Anticipated Infrastructure Investment Currently Priced into Valuations

Anticipated Tax Reform Currently Priced into Valuations

42%

53% 26%

33%

16% 11% 7%

7%

5% 0%

0%

Up to 25%

Up to 50%

Up to 75%

100%

0%

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Up to 25%

Up to 50%

Up to 75%

100%

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Investors Believe We Are Increasingly Moving toward Mid-to-Late in the Industrial Cycle; Organic Growth Expected to Improve in 2018 but Few Still Expect 5.0%+ Industrial Cycle Views

Early-to-Mid “We had a long downcycle that is now starting to get positive momentum.” Buy Side, Industrials, N. America

41% 25% 26%

25%

29% 17% 18%

11% 4% 4%

Mid

Early

Early-toMid Jun '17

Mid

Mid-toLate

Late

Sep '17

Expectations for FY 2018 Organic Growth

19%

19% 12%

6%

“Growth of margins, level of M&A.” Buy Side, Industrials, N. America

“While the overall economy is later in the cycle, Industrials went through a recession, which only ended three quarters ago.

Additionally, the dearth of capex projects hasn't made the recovery very robust, which could begin in the coming year.” Buy Side, Industrials, N. America

Mid-to-Late

38%

6%

“U.K. companies have been reporting dull demand for years, PMIs imply this should start to improve from here and Q2 suggested this was the case.” Sell Side, Industrials, Europe

“Duration of overall biz cycle, pickup in later cycle end markets like E&C and Aero production. I also think an infrastructure bill gets passed. Early cycle Autos/Airlines rolling over a bit.” Buy Side, Industrials, N. America

“Interest rate hikes, credit availability.” Buy Side, Industrials, N.

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

America

Late

100%

Believe the Fed Will Continue to Raise Interest Rates in 2018

“Shear duration of bull market.” Sell Side, Generalist, N. America

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Commentary on Top Concerns

1

U.S. government ineptitude

2

Geopolitical concerns, with emphasis on escalating N. Korea tensions

3

Interest rate hikes

Buy Side

Sell Side

“1) Yellen; 2) Kim Jong Un; 3) Any economics noble prize.”

“1) Fed rate hike/balance sheet missteps; 2) Disruptive legislation (primarily Healthcare).”

“1) Geopolitical; 2) U.S. legislative agenda; 3) Sustainable growth outside U.S.”

“1) Price/cost; 2) Effective capital deployment; 3) Valuations.”

“1) Price/cost; 2) Hurricane disruptions; 3) Inability of government to enact fiscal stimulus.”

“1) China financial stability; 2) North Korea political instability; 3) Trump unpredictability.”

“1) Earnings; 2) Pace of Fed hikes; 3) Geopolitical.”

“1) China slowing; 2) Valuations; 3) Consumer electronics slowing.”

“1) The Fed moving too fast; 2) No tax reform; 3) Broader conflict with North Korea.”

“1) No tax bill; 2) No infrastructure bill; 3) Shortfall in NonResi Construction.”

“1) Duration of bull market; 2) Chinese economy; 3) Dysfunction in Washington.”

“1) Geopolitical tensions; 2) Trade wars; 3) Policy missteps.”

“1) Trump impact; 2) Brexit impact; 3) FX.” “1) Monetary policy normalization in U.S. and Eurozone; 2) Geopolitical risks in East Asia and Middle East; 3) Painful economic reform in China.”

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Though D.C. Dysfunction Remains a Concern, Infrastructure Bill More Likely to Pass Following Hurricanes, Which are Expected to Lift 2018 GDP by ~50 bps Washington D.C. Political Scene Trend Versus First Half of the Year

Impact of Hurricanes Harvey & Irma on U.S. GDP

22%

25% 17%

43%

63%

Positive No Impact

58%

35%

Negative

33% 4%

4Q17

Improving

Staying the Same

2018

Worsening

Probability of Passing due to Impact of Hurricanes Harvey & Irma 13%

4%

74%

78%

9%

13%

18%

Infrastructure Bill

Tax Reform

Healthcare Reform

56%

No Impact

35%

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Higher Lower

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Sentiment Largely Remains Strong; Brazil Finally Sees Light at the End of the Tunnel Though Views on China Increasingly Negative News on Brazil: Click Here Click Here

Global Economy Expectations Over the Next Six Months

Brazil

80%

10%

+45 pts

-7 pts

Eurozone

67%

28%

-1 pt 62%

33%

LatAm (Ex Brazil)

55%

40%

5%

+28 pts

-13 pts

Southeast Asia

45%

45%

10%

0 pts

+10 pts 40%

60%

+8 pts

-5 pts 35%

55%

10%

+3 pts

Mexico

-8 pts 35%

50%

15%

+26 pts

China

5% -12 pts

+14 pts

Japan

5% 0 pts

U.S.

India

10%

-8 pts

10%

55%

35%

-20 pts

+22 pts

Improving

Staying The Same CORBINADVISORS.COM

Worsening 16

Most Measures See Signs of Improvement, Though Company Input Costs and Geopolitical Volatility Expected to Worsen Expectations Over the Next Six Months

Oil & Gas Markets

71%

29% (Worsening, -33 pts)

+42 pts

U.S. GDP

71%

29% -4 pts

+36 pts

Non-Resi Const.

71%

19%

10% +1 pt

+45 pts

Global Capex

57%

43% -13 pts

+3 pts

Global Trade

43%

57%

+14 pts

Housing/Resi. Const.

-17 pts 43%

48%

9% -5 pts

0 pts

Global PMI

38%

43%

19% -7 pts

+12 pts

FX Headwinds

38%

33%

29%

+17 pts

Geopolitical Volatility Company Input Costs

+17 pts

5% +1 pt 5%

40%

55% +22 pts

24%

71%

-7 pts

Improving

+33 pts

Staying The Same CORBINADVISORS.COM

Worsening 17

Defense in the Spotlight amid North Korea Concerns; Auto Remains in Neutral

Predicted to Grow Faster than GDP

Predicted to Grow Slower than GDP

65%

Defense

56%

Building Products

81%

68%

53% 57%

Comm. Aero.

35%

Chemicals

37%

Non-Resi Const.

Automotive Metals & Mining

35%

Transportation Machinery

50%

Distribution

50%

Resi. Const.

Water

48% 48%

65%

41% 47%

Water Jun '17

25%

6%

16% 18% 12% 16% 12% 14%

Machinery

12% 14% 21% 14% Jun '17

Sep '17

Defense Sees Spike in Bullish Sentiment, Reaches Highest Level since Survey Inception

35%

19%

Chemicals

Non-resi Const.

76%

18% 23%

Agriculture

53% 50%

Resi Const.

59%

Sep '17

Auto Sees Most Bearish Sentiment Again and Distribution Sees Largest Uptick

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Organic Growth, Organic Growth, Organic Growth Preferred Uses of Cash In Descending Order of Top Two Combined Preferences

Reinvestment

M&A

60%

15%

Debt Pay Down

15%

30%

29%

Dividend Growth 5%

24%

21%

Buybacks

10%

Dry Powder

10%

10% 5%

15%

32%

15%

10%

Primary Choice

Second

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Third 19

Other Topics of Interest Earnings Calls

1

Margins

2

Capex

3

End Market Demand

“Can they find enough deplorables (welders, assemblers, plumbers, carpenters, mechanics) to rebuild America?” Buy Side, Industrials, N. America

“Cost inflation, cost reductions, pricing actions.” Buy Side, Industrials, N. America “Ability to raise margins.” Buy Side, Industrials, N. America “Raw materials outlook, capex outlooks, transportation network capacity.” Buy Side, Industrials, N. America “Organic growth trends.” Buy Side, Industrials, N. America “Strength and sources of end market demand, competitive pressures, supply chain challenges and opportunities.” Buy Side, Generalist, N. America

“Changes in the ability to compete and/or operate globally given rise in nationalist rhetoric.” Sell Side, Industrials, N. America “Exposure to Chinese and Indian economies and risk management against same.” Sell Side, Generalist, N. America

Most Compelling Technology Themes within Industrial or Other Growth Sectors

1

Automation/robotics

2

IoT

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3

E-commerce

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Deep Experience. Deeply Committed.

Founded

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Senior Experience

Combined 200+ Years

Location

Hartford, CT (U.S.)

Client Size

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Thought leaders: Leading-edge research on investor sentiment and best practices; quarterly surveys regularly featured on CNBC

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