2Q16 Earnings Primer

INSIDE THE BUY-SIDE® 2Q16 EARNINGS PRIMER JULY 15, 2016

www.corbinperception.com

Follow us @CorbinResearch

INSIDE THE BUY-SIDE® 2Q EARNINGS PRIMER

ISSUE

Inside The Buy-side®

• Survey scope: 68 investors globally managing over $1.8 trillion in assets

15, 2016

Market Performance

• We survey institutional investors quarterly on topics pertaining to the earnings season, global economy and market drivers • We share our research broadly with executives, investor relations (IR) professionals and investors

DATE: JULY

2Q16

One-Year1

DJIA

1.4%

1.9%

NASDAQ

(0.6%)

(2.3%)

S&P 500

2.0%

1.9%

Russell 2000

3.4%

(7.6%)

1

As of 6’30’16

• Survey timeframe: June 17 to July 8, 2016

By Sector Generalist Multi Industrial Energy IT Technology Financial Healthcare Telecom REIT Material

By Region

By Style

44% 16% 14% 7% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2%

www.corbinperception.com

N. America

63%

Core Value

30%

GARP Europe

Asia Pacific

Latin America

19%

10%

8%

27%

Core Growth

19%

Inc. Val./Yield

8%

Hedge Fund

8%

VC/PE

8%

Follow us @CorbinResearch

2

Inside The Buy-side®

WORD CLOUD: FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE

www.corbinperception.com

Follow us @CorbinResearch

3

KEY FINDINGS…THINGS THAT MAKE US GO HMMMM

Inside The Buy-side®

#1: Draconian Fears Subsiding But Institutional Investor Sentiment Not As Ebullient As Market Rally Would Indicate •

54% classified equity valuations as overvalued ahead of Brexit and 46% reported an increase in portfolio cash holdings from last quarter

•

Concerns about global growth and equity valuations driving bearish sentiment higher

•

Defensive sectors grow in relative bullishness

#2: North America Earnings Stability Expected Despite Perception Of Worsening Macro And Decelerating Organic Growth •

North America 2Q earnings predicted to be in line or better than consensus by 60%; “X factor” will be management outlooks amidst Brexit uncertainty

•

Concerns regarding organic growth rise with 45% forecasting continued erosion versus 27% QoQ

#3: More Positive Executive Tone Is Diverging From Elevated Cautious Sentiment; Management Confidence In Operating In Low-growth Environment Increasing •

Greater than half of the survey group classify management tone as neutral to upbeat and at the same time describe their sentiment as slightly more guarded

#4: With Brexit Vote Behind Us, Attention Turns To U.S. Presidential Election •

57% consider the election impact on the market to be negative but only 20% say it’s impacting their investment decisions, down slightly from last quarter

•

28% believe Clinton’s election would have a positive impact on the markets vs. just 7% for Trump; conversely, a stunning 80% see Trump as having a negative or very negative impact if elected www.corbinperception.com

Follow us @CorbinResearch

4

FOLLOWING EXPECTATIONS OF STABILIZING EARNINGS LAST QUARTER, VIEWS HAVE DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT Expectations Regarding 2Q Earnings Performance Relative To Consensus

Inside The Buy-side®

Highest level of bearish sentiment regarding earnings predictions in 13 quarters; have we turned the corner?

43% Sep '15 Dec '15 Mar '16

Jun '16

32%

27%

23%

28%

40%

57% 45% 39% 30%

21% 15%

Better Than

In Line

Worse Than

Slowing Global Growth Continues To Weigh On Earnings Expectations; Problem Areas Are Eurozone And China www.corbinperception.com

Follow us @CorbinResearch

5

CONCERNS ABOUT ORGANIC GROWTH SPIKE BUT SELF-HELP EFFORTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELIVER STABLE EPS RESULTS Organic Growth

EPS Growth 51%

61% 51%

45% 35%

Inside The Buy-side®

16%

22%20%

Improving

35%36% 33%

30%32%

34%35%

27%

23%

14%

Staying the Same

Worsening

Improving

Staying the Same

Worsening

Operating Margins

Free Cash Flow

55% 35%35%

36%

24%

Improving

41%

40% 30%

Staying the Same

35% 24%

28% 20% 14%

Worsening

Improving

Dec ‘15 www.corbinperception.com

Mar ‘16

37% 31%32%

Staying the Same

43% 40%

Worsening

Jun ‘16 Follow us @CorbinResearch

6

Inside The Buy-side®

STRAIGHT FROM THE BUY SIDE: ON EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS Better Than

In Line

Worse Than

“Negative sentiment overdone in Q1.” Multi | Europe

“Continued easy money.” Yield,

“Uncertainty due to Brexit.” Buy

“We had an earnings recession late in 2015 and early 2016, particularly among manufacturing companies.

Comparisons get easy from here.” GARP, Generalist | North

“Analysts are not overly positive, thus consensus should be in line with actual earnings.”

“The market is still not factoring in the embedded strength of the weighted USD average into earnings correctly.” Sell Side,

“Real economy better than markets’ perception.” Yield,

Generalist | Latin America

America

Generalist | Europe

“The dollar and oil.” Sell Side, Generalist | North America

“I would not be surprised if they come in a little shy of what people expect since it is a moving target and people are a bit more optimistic.” Income

Generalist | North America

Core Value, Generalist | North America

“Better than expected figures during 1Q16.” Sell Side, “International economic activity/ geopolitical instability/ uncertainty.”

VC/Private Equity, Energy | North America

“Slow growth.” GARP, Materials |

Side, Generalist | Europe

Generalist | Europe

“Mixed interim data points since Q1 earnings.” Core Growth, Multi | North America

“Poor sentiment and uncertainty in market.” Buy Side, Multi | Asia “Continued weak industrial data.” GARP, Industrial | North America

North America

Value, Telecom | North America www.corbinperception.com

Follow us @CorbinResearch

7

EXECUTIVE TONE DESCRIBED AS MORE UPBEAT WHILE INVESTOR SENTIMENT REGISTERING MORE CAUTIOUS Mar ‘16 3%

Inside The Buy-side®

39%

Jun ’16 5%

3%

41%

48%

Bullish

7% 31%

Neutral to Bullish Neutral Neutral to Bearish

14%

7% 31%

Bearish

34%

31%

15%

17%

Management Tone

Investor Sentiment

45% 25%

www.corbinperception.com

2%

2%

Management Tone

Investor Sentiment

Follow us @CorbinResearch

8

Inside The Buy-side®

STRAIGHT FROM THE BUY SIDE: ON SENTIMENT Bullish

Bearish

“This is the most hated bull market in my career.

Markets don't go down when sentiment is like this.” GARP, Generalist | North America

“Political uncertainty both here and around the globe.” Buy Side, Multi | Asia

“Contrarianism. Selective value in a bearish market.” Core Value, Generalist | North America

Energy | Europe

“Low oil prices and poor macro outlook.” Sell Side, “Valuation; it’s the point in the cycle.” Hedge Fund,

“Media infected by overly negative sentiment.”

Multi | North America

Neutral to Bullish

Neutral to Bearish

“Expect a slight acceleration in growth.” Yield,

“Valuations aren’t low, margins are still high in a lot of industries and interest rates are very low.

Any of those could reverse and it would be troublesome.” GARP, Generalist | North America

Multi | Europe

Generalist | Europe

“Lower budgets, supply loss and no exploration spend.” Sell Side, Energy | North America “Consumer sentiment.” Core Growth, Generalist |

“Limited top-line growth and growing cost pressures.” Core Growth, REIT | North America

“Capital deployment.” Core Value, Generalist | North

“The political risk that has been the driver of economic decisions.” Sell Side, Financials | Europe

Latin America

America

www.corbinperception.com

Follow us @CorbinResearch

9

AMID UNCERTAINTY, INVESTORS REPORT BUILDING CASH…AND THEN A SURPRISE SELL-OFF OCCURS – BINGO! Quarter-Over-Quarter, How Would You Characterize Your Cash Position?

Given Slower Global Growth And A Relatively Weak Earnings Outlook, How Would You Classify Equity Valuations?

46%

Inside The Buy-side®

54% 34% 38%

14%

Maintained Increased Decreased

6%

8%

Do Not Hold Cash

Under

Fairly

Over

“Large discrepancy between overvalued and undervalued stocks, which results in a blended, ‘fairly valued’ market.” Core Value, Generalist | North America

www.corbinperception.com

Follow us @CorbinResearch

10

BRIGHT SPOTS REMAIN IN INDIA AND U.S. WHILE EUROZONE IS SLOWGO FOR NOW View On Global Economies Over The Next Six Months

Inside The Buy-side®

India

46%

37%

17%

U.S.

35%

43%

22%

Canada

33%

46%

21%

Southeast Asia

28%

Mexico

25%

Eurozone

21%

Brazil

19%

Latin America (ex-Brazil)

45%

15%

27%

43%

23%

30%

32%

56%

51%

43%

42%

China

11%

47%

42%

Japan

9%

51%

40%

Improving www.corbinperception.com

Staying the Same

Worsening Follow us @CorbinResearch

11

DE-FENSE! DE-FENSE! ONLY SECTOR TO WITNESS AN INCREASE IN BULLISH AND A DECREASE IN BEARISH SENTIMENT? YUP, UTILITIES

*

Cons.

Staples

Inside The Buy-side®

Technology

38% 44% Knocked from #1 perch

34%

*

52%

36% 34%

* Healthcare 14%

Utilities

34% 21%

Energy Cons. Disc.

1Q16

34%

Materials 20%

Cons. Disc.

36%

2Q16

53%

42%

37%

12%

Industrials

33% 20%

REIT

29%

27%

41%

Financials

30%

24% 28%

Energy 1Q16

2Q16

* Defensive

Technology Sees Biggest Decrease In Bullish Sentiment While Defensive Sectors Gain Ground www.corbinperception.com

Industrials Whipsaw From Bullish Last Survey To Bearish And Register Biggest Increase In Negative Views Follow us @CorbinResearch

12

STRAIGHT FROM THE BUY SIDE: ON SECTORS BULLS

BEARS

“Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Technology – We are a value shop. These are the most outof-favor areas. We buy with a minimum holding time of 3 to 5 years.” Core Value, Generalist | North

“Financials – Low revenues and regulatory risks.” Sell Side, Financials | Europe

“Energy, Financials, Health Care – All have upcoming catalysts that drive stock prices higher without company improvement itself.” Sell Side,

“REITs – The big box retailers are overstored.

There may be an overabundance of commercial real estate, too.” Core Value, Generalist | North

“Building Products/Homebuilding, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Financials, Utilities -- Housing reflation  more building  consumer confidence  more spending. It will take a while to filter down to the others that are further up the chain. Rising rates positive for banks and utilities.” GARP, Materials | North

“Industrials – Already overvalued or suffering from rising commodity prices.” Sell Side, Energy |

America

“Biotechnology, Building Products/ Homebuilding, Technology, Telecommunication Services, Utilities – Valuation and business cycle risk.” Hedge Fund, Multi | North America

“Energy, Financials, Materials and Utilities -- Too lowly valued relative to the rest of the market and the best yield places to hide.” Sell Side,

“Energy and Technology – Energy still working out structural changes, while Tech will be impacted heavily by Apple slowing.” GARP, Multi|

Inside The Buy-side®

America

Energy | North America

Generalist | Europe

www.corbinperception.com

“Financials – Low interest rates and disruptors.”

Core Value, Generalist | Asia

America

North America

North America

Follow us @CorbinResearch

13

FEELING LIKE WE MAY HAVE TURNED THE CORNER…WHAT’S THAT LIGHT DOWN THERE? When Do You Think The U.S. Will Have Its Next Recession?

Will The Fed Continue To Raise Interest Rates In 2016?

76%

41% 40% Opinions continue to push out past 2018

Inside The Buy-side®

34%

22%

7%

45%

24% 17%

55%

22% 16% 14%

24%

7% 0% 2016

2017 Dec '15

www.corbinperception.com

2018 Mar '16

Jun '16

3+ Years

Yes

No

Mar '16

Jun '16

Follow us @CorbinResearch

14

NEARLY 60% REPORT U.S. ELECTION UNCERTAINTY IS HAVING A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON MARKETS

Inside The Buy-side®

Who Will Have The Most Favorable Impact On Markets?

Trump

42%

38%

13% 5%

2%

Survey Says: The Hillster

Clinton

9%

23%

Very Negative www.corbinperception.com

40%

Negative

Neutral

23%

Positive

5%

Very Positive Follow us @CorbinResearch

15

IR BEST PRACTICE: SUSTAINABLE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES, PART 1 Many companies that have outperformed the market despite decelerating global growth point to executing “what is within our control.” Amid elevated communication of differentiated execution, we are drilling down into operational excellence as a competitive advantage.

Inside The Buy-side®

Our ongoing proprietary research reveals that Operational Excellence is recognized by the buy side as a Top 3 sustainable competitive advantage (ergo Part 1).

An analysis of companies that effectively position operational excellence reveals: •

•

•

Business system is well defined and tangible objectives are provided

Positioned as a sustainable competitive differentiator and core competency; it often defines the culture And probably most importantly, real financial impact is evident and tied to business system

www.corbinperception.com

While proof points communicated include:  Market share gains  Better-than-market organic growth  Margin outperformance  Strong FCF generation, conversion  Improved working capital turns  Ability to pass on cost to customers  Superior M&A integration  Unique customer experience  Leadership/employee engagement  Shareholder value delivery, leading TSR

Follow us @CorbinResearch

16

Inside The Buy-sideÂŽ

ABOUT US

We are Corbin Perception, a leading investor research and investor relations advisory firm that specializes in shareholder value creation.

We leverage our broad company and industry experience, knowledge of best practices and benchmarking capabilities to provide research-driven counsel that enables our clients, publicly-traded companies across diverse industries, to positively differentiate their company in the market. We bring a unique perspective to our engagements, one that is based on a proven methodology and customized approach.

Our industry-leading research, Inside The Buy-sideÂŽ, is covered by news affiliates globally and regularly featured on CNBC. To learn more about us and our impact, visit CorbinPerception.com www.corbinperception.com

Follow us @CorbinResearch

17