INTERVIEW
Issue 60
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September 22, 2016
Distributed with Times of Malta
Increases in house prices ‘not excessive’ Increases in real house prices in recent years were not excessive when compared to those in other countries, a study on the property market has concluded. The study by Brian Micallef, research office manager at the Central Bank of Malta, found that after a correction period that lasted five to six years, the housing market started to recover in 2013, with property prices registering healthy growth rates in the two years that followed. The increase was attributed to a number of factors: a robust economic growth, low unemployment and government policies aimed at stimulating the property market. The research also refers to the Individual Investor Programme (IIP), which targets high net worth individuals, thus raising demand for high-end properties. Other contributing factors included an investment registration scheme in 2014, the exemption of stamp duty for first-time buyers on the first €150,000 of their new property value and capital gains tax reform last year, with the introduction of a final withholding tax system based on the value of the property. Portfolio rebalancing by investors into the housing market was also mentioned as possibly having played an “increasingly important role”, especially in the context of the prevailing low interest rate environment. According to the Central Bank of Malta house price index, residential property prices rose rapidly in the early 2000s with double-digit growth rates being registered between 2003 and 2005. The boom in property prices, the study notes, peaked in 2004 and,
then, the growth rate in house prices gradually slowed down although it remained positive until late 2007. As happened elsewhere, prices dropped in 2008 and 2009, partly correcting the previous excesses. The study, however, points out that the drop was “relatively mild”, averaging just under four per cent annually throughout the two years in question. This was followed by “relatively low growth” between 2010 and 2012 and property prices started to recover in 2013, exceeding the pre-crisis peak in early 2014. Subsequently, house prices maintained strong and positive momentum, averaging 6.6 per cent per annum between 2014 and 2015. A combination of demand and supply factors had led to the boom in house prices in the early 2000s. Membership of the European Union, the study says, could have influenced expectations about future economic prospects. Also, entry in the ERM II mechanism, two years before the euro was adopted, led to domestic interest rates slowly coming into line with those set by the European Central Bank. Bank lending rates to households for mortgages fell from 6.6 per cent in early 2000 to 4.3 per cent at the end-2004. Low interest rates impacted positively on property prices, with residential mortgage debt rising from 14.5 per cent of GDP in 2000 to 35 per cent in 2007. The investment registration scheme, a tax amnesty for Maltese residents with overseas assets effective between 2001 and 2005, played its part too. As a result, many residents often invested their assets in domestic property.
e Central Bank of Malta’s main aim is to ensure financial stability without slowing down economic growth, the new governor, Mario Vella, says. see pages 10 and 11 >
NEWS Malta ranks as one of the top three EU28 countries in eight goods and 13 services markets, according to data just released by the European Commission. see page 3 >
OPINION
“Social and demographic factors are having an important impact on the housing market” Property development was further encouraged by the rationalisation exercise launched by the then Malta Environment and Planning Authority in 2006. All this, in turn, encouraged construction. Just to have an idea, development permits for new dwellings units, mostly apartments, almost doubled between 2003 and their peak of 11,343 in
2007. Together with a higher supply there was also a sharp increase in vacant dwellings. Going by the 2005 census, dwellings increased to 192,314 units in 2005, up 24 per cent compared to a decade earlier. Vacant properties numbered 53,136, or 27.6 per cent of the total housing continued on page 5
Time would be better spent if we had to start planning for a more sustainable economy, Philip von Brockdorff, head at the Department of Economics, argues. see page 15 >
STOCK MARKET REVIEW A look at the most significant share price movements and shifts in investor sentiment towards a number of local companies following the publication of interim results. see pages 18 and 19 >