ANALYSIS
Issue 96
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Distributed with Times of Malta
March 28, 2019
No property bubble in Malta, US housing expert says
A no-deal Brexit would be a blow to the Maltese economy, but the extent of its impact is difficult to determine at this stage. see pages 5, 6 >
Marie-Claire Grima NEWS Many of the conditions that could create a bubble are currently present in Malta’s housing market, but there doesn’t seem to be one forming just yet, according to Professor Andrew Narwold, who cautioned that the risks were still there and were being keenly monitored. “In terms of historically low interest rates, and the influx of foreign buyers and renters, it’s putting a lot of pressure on the market which you want to watch closely, but there doesn’t seem to be a bubble forming,” said Prof. Narwold, an expert in the macro-economics of the property market, who is using his extensive housing market experience and research to help the Central Bank of Malta develop housing price index, Malta’s firstever. “There are underlying conditions that could create a bubble – there is a possibility; but I think the Central Bank is doing a great job of monitoring it.” Prof. Narwold, who is based at the University of San Diego in California, said that the housing market in Malta paralleled the situation in San Diego. “If you go down this list of housing market issues in San Diego, you could be talking about Malta. There’s restricted housing supply, and huge growth – for us, it’s domestic workers, but for you, it’s foreign workers – as well as historically low interest rates. I understand there are also the beginnings of homelessness in Malta – it’s something that’s been long established
e MFSA has launched a guidance document designed to assist companies operating in the fields of financial technology in their application for a bank account. see page 9 >
NEWS Since the introduction of GreenPak’s iBins, there has been a notable increase of 51 per cent in the collection of recyclable materials. see page 13 >
PROFESSOR ANDREW NARWOLD. PHOTO: INIGO TAYLOR
“ere are things, culturally and mechanically in the Maltese economy, that would preclude that great oscillation that you would see in other countries.” in the States, but a new phenomenon here. In San Diego, housing prices have gotten so high, people are living in garages and building illegal structures. When I said this to my colleagues in Malta, they
said, yes, all that is happening here, too. It has been really valuable talking about what these issues translate into, and whether they’re a result of what’s been happening in the market or a cause.”
What could lead to a bubble locally, Prof. Narwold said, was if, for any reason, the continued influx of foreign workers were to reverse itself; in other words, if foreigners stopped coming to live and work in Malta. “You’d have a lot of people investing in potential property without a lot of people to take it, and that could cause a dramatic readjustment. It’s unforeseeable at this point, but if [the number of new expats in Malta] were to dry up, you would have an oversupply of stock that you would need to readjust.” Continued on page 3
CASE STUDY e number of e Convenience Shop outlets in Malta is expected increase to 71 by the end of 2019, according to CEO Martin Agius. see pages 20, 21 >