THE LAST WORD
Five trends that will impact Western Cape air travel in 2021 By Tim Harris, chief executive officer of Wesgro
The Covid-19 pandemic has devastated the global aviation industry. Never before in the history of aviation has the sector seen such a substantial and persistent decline in global passengers, cargo, and revenue.
T
he crisis is also unique because it impacts every airline and airport worldwide, and will continue to do so until some form of ‘herd immunity’ is achieved through effective vaccination programmes. As the agency tasked with the promotion of international tourism, trade and investment in the Cape, we felt first-hand the profound impact of this on so many of the Western Cape sectors. With route connectivity, airline capacity and air traveller confidence key to the recovery of international air travel, our Cape Town Air Access team - a collaborative project dedicated to promoting, developing and maintaining air routes in and out of the Western Cape – foresees the following key trends that will shape Cape Town and the Western Cape aviation industry recovery in 2021. Government procedures eclipse airline strategies The past year has seen a global pandemic, but also prolonged containment measures including lockdowns, border closures, travel restrictions and testing regimes implemented by governments across the world. This has left many carriers relying on air cargo and repatriation flights during
the hard lockdown, and quickly resuming service as soon as any type of passenger flight was allowed. This current operating environment is not sustainable. Even those airlines that received government bailout or private sector cash injections have implemented strict cost-containment measures, rationalising their workforces and reducing their fleet sizes to survive. A sobering statistic by the Lufthansa Group reveals the airline is losing more than USD 1 million every two hours during the global pandemic. Government regulations and protocols will be the principal driving force behind passenger air services for 2021. For example, the extra travel restrictions imposed by the Netherlands on 23 January 2021 has forced KLM to cancel its services to South Africa and some other intercontinental destinations. This curtails any strategy or plan the airline had in place for the upcoming months, and will place a heavy burden on its financial resources. Foreign government measures such as these will have a profound negative effect on international travel to and from South Africa, and will dampen supply of air services and traveller demand for at least the first half of 2021.
40 Business Events Africa February 2021
Testing – and not the vaccine – will remain a requirement to travel internationally… for now The start of mass vaccinations in many countries will hopefully be the kickstart that global tourism desperately needs, although the International Air Transport association (IATA) cautions that things might get worse before they get better, as travel restrictions will persist until effective roll-out is achieved. Because of this, governments will be forced to stick to systematic testing approaches, and other proven health and safety protocols for much of 2021, and possibly thereafter. The hope is that by the second half of 2021, as more people are vaccinated globally, we will start seeing a renewed appetite for international travel. With Cape Town and the Western Cape well positioned for travel in a Covid-19 world – boasting an affordable worldclass travel offering underpinned by wide open natural spaces - we remain confident that the destination will remain high on the “bucket list”. South Africa and the Western Cape were cited this past month as number 15 out of 20 places to visit in March 2021 by the International Condé Nast Traveller. In the longer term we should see a coordinated effort from global policy makers to establish the use of vaccination certificates when travelling and the implementation of common, harmonised digital related travel principles, protocols and documents that countries can follow. A response that is currently being trialed is the International Air Transport Association (IATA) Travel Pass, a global and standardised solution to validate and authenticate all country regulations regarding Covid-19 passenger travel requirements. IATA states that “The main priority is to get people travelling again, safely. In the immediate term that means establishing confidence in governments that systematic pre-departure Covid-19 testing can work as a replacement for quarantine requirements. And that will eventually develop into a vaccine program.” Etihad and Emirates are the first major carriers that have partnered with IATA to trial the Travel Pass. The domestic passenger market will only recover to pre-Covid levels in 2022 The domestic passenger market reached 50% of 2019 levels by December 2020, www.businesseventsafrica.com
