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Don’t Forget! You Saw it in the
November 2017 #10220 Page #71
Lumber Briefs By Matt Layman Publisher, Layman’s Lumber Guide
LAYMAN'S LUMBER Labor MARKET BRIEF and ROBOTICS: Solution COMPONENT MANUFACTURER'S EDITION
The
Future of Housing
Matt Layman, Publisher November, 2017
T
ROBOTICS: Labor Solution and Future ofgoing theonHousing he housing industry has beenThe begging for workers a decade now. The American citizen work force is not answeringTo theput call.things Consequently, housing construction has become into perspective. past 15 The housing industry has been begging for Robotics will replace manual laborOver with the efficiency, completely dependent on undocumented workers. years, SYP 2x4#2 has exceededHomes this week's workers going on a decade now. The American accuracy, and dependability. will beprice built
just four times. The technology highest was in 2004 ($42 citizen work force is not answering the call.Artificial Intelligence faster, more accurately, and less costly. Time is Meanwhile, and Robotics are$442 advancing at breakneck higher.) Canadian 2004 @ $470 Consequntly, housing construction has become money, people areSPF Less of both means lower speed. Robotics is future of housing and the solution tomoney. itsonly laboronce, issues.also ($85 higher.)costs. Dry Hem Fir, ditto...once, $465 ($35 completely dependent on undocumented workers. production Point #1: In the wood components industry, is a must and will become more necessary in the nearare future where speed higher). Green Doug Fir...Zero...2004 was $20 Meanwhile, Artificial Intelligence androbotics Robotics Point #4: Size matters. Robotics not cheap. and accuracy are required for companies to survive with a profit. lower at $460. technology are advancing at breakneck speed. The first innovators of the new paradigm will be larger 7/16 OSB have more data) over the past 25 To Robotics is future of housing and the solution to its home builders...locally, and Point #2: Labor issues are unresolvable. The strength and endurance of laborers(Irequired on aregionally housing jobsite isnationally. disproportionate years, has exceeded this week's price of $335 only labor issues. justify the initial expense, a builder must have enough to the pay scale. Folks, particularly 20–35 year olds, do not want to risk injury and expend the necessary energy for twice; 2003to@keep $380 and 2004busy. @ $400. Point$20 #1: In the wood components industry business the robots Small builders or less per hour. They need higher pay to support a family and pay healthcare. Higher pay work is usuallywill less From historically high prices, will the become lumber market robotics is a must and will become more necessary in go away. Large tract larger. The physically demanding. Robots have greater strength and endurance than humans.builders has history declining. At thatshare. 2004 high water the near future where speed and accuracy are topa 100 will of claim larger market mark, over the next eleven weeks SYP fell $45; Point #3: The use of AI and higher skilled employees and will pay accordingly. Robotics willSPF replace required for companies to robotics survive will withrequire a profit. The need for real people on the jobsite will always dropped $155; Hem collapsed $175; Green Pointmanual #2: Labor issues are unresolvable. labor with efficiency, accuracy, andThe dependability. willhowever beDry built faster, more accurately, and less costly. beHomes present, theFirfuture jobsite crew will be a Doug Fir eroded $185. strength and endurance of laborers required on a more supervisory unit. Currently, we see the labor Time is money, people are money. Less of both means lower production costs. OSB continued tothing, rally three more weeks after housing jobsite is disproportionate to the pay scale. shortage as a bad however the solution...AI and Size matters. Robotics notdo cheap. first of the new paradigm be larger builders...locally, Point the lumber peak, towill $435, then fell $200 in home Folks,#4: particularly 20-35 yearare olds, not The want toinnovators robotics... will beup the largest leap home forward the regionally and nationally. To justify the initial expense,seven abuilding builder must have enough business keep the for robots weeks. Think onever that as youtoprepare thebusy. risk injury and expend the necessary energy for $20 industry has seen. builders will go away. Large builders awill become larger. The topMy 100play will claim larger share. September Surge. beis. tomarket cover SYP will or less Small an hour. They need higher paytract to support When will it happen? Itwould already Expansion through mid October. Everything else, just fill in the family and pay healthcare. Higher pay work is be exponential. The housing and wood component The need for real people on the jobsite will always be present, however, the future jobsite crew will be a more supervisory gaps and give iton some room. usually less physically demanding. Robots have industries are the verge of massive consolidation. unit. Currently, we see the labor shortage as a bad thing, however the solution—AI and robotics—will be the largest leap forward strength and endurance than humans. That means buy outs. thegreater home building industry has ever seen. Looking Forward ...ml Point #3: The use of AI and robotics will require Looking Forward ...ml When skilled will it happen? It already is. Expansion will be exponential. The housing and wood component industries are on the higher employees and will pay accordingly.
verge of massive consolidation. That means buy outs. (FTP) Forecasted Time & Price vs. Composite (2x4's #2 SYP-E, SPF-W, Dry Hem Fir, Green Doug Fir.) 2016-Current Vertical arrows project time-major turning weeks. Red squares project price based upon forecasted direction and average price change of $6 per week. Green Zone=Increasing Demand #07-36 Red Zone = Decreasing Demand Weeks #37-06 Yellow Zone=Daylight Savings Weeks #11 Through Week #44.
460 440 420 400 380 360 340 320
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 2 3
Looking Forward ...ml
Layman's Lumber Guide...Matt Layman, Publisher
PO Box 905, Belmont, NC 28012 A veteran lumberman, Matt Layman publishes Fax: Layman’s Lumber the weekly forecasts and buying advisories that help component Phone or Text: 336-516-6684 888-811-6917 Email:Guide, matt@laymansguide.org Reprint or distribution is unlawful without permission. www.laymansguide.org TWITTER.com/Laymansguide Join Matt layman on LinkedIn manufacturers save money on lumber purchases every day. You can reach Matt at 336-516-6684 or matt@laymansguide.org.
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