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Component Manufacturing dverti$er
Don’t Forget! You Saw it in the
May 2019 #11238 Page #78
Adverti$er
Lumber Briefs By Matt Layman Publisher, Layman’s Lumber Guide
Labor and Lumber Demand are “Coming Back”
Layman's Lumber Guide Lumber & Housing Market FORECAST Component Manufacturer's Edition Matt Layman, Publisher
F
or the past three years, the housingMAY, industry has bemoaned labor as its primary deterrent to 2018 increasing productivity, i.e., housing starts. Framing crews suddenly vanished when detainment and deportation of undocumented workers became more prevalent.
Labor & Lumber Demand is "Coming Back"
initial on the housing capped capacity. capped is just wages in 2020. What That I do not know capacity at this writing is ifnow the "return" For the pastThe three years,impact the housing industry has industry was consists of documented undocumented or if a sector bemoanedmaking labor as its its way primary to increasing intodeterrent the media. The 1.3 mm maximum capacity housingorstarts assumes immigrants no labor relief, of the unemployed US labor force that is attracted by higher wages. productivity, i.e., housing starts. Framing crews suddenly which also assumes undocumented workers continue toRegardless, find the risk ofinformation fugitive status notinformative. worth the reward this is super Let's look just vanished when detainment and deportation of undocumented of pretending to be a citizen, living in hiding with a good job. We are seeing, with more frequency, at the labor that fled for fear of legal entanglement andthat call it one workers became more prevalent. third of the total construction job pool. That explains why there The initial impact on the housing industry was capped is not the case. More labor is coming back to where it is wanted, needed, and welcomed. The reward is was, and in spots still are, unfilled jobs. Higher wages kept age 60capacity. That capped capacity is just now making its way into themaximum risk. capacity housing starts assumes 70 year-old veterans from retiring. the media.worth 1.3 mm There is a problem brewing. Businesses' willingness to employ no labor relief, which also assumes undocumented workers undocumented workers. That pits small business against the continue to find the risk oflegitimate fugitive status not worth the reward In Texas, green card holders are being delayed through customs. By contrast, in the government. The scary thing is, throughout history, bad things of pretending to be a citizen, living in hiding with a good job. southeast, there is a significantly return happen of framing crews. when For the pastis 12 months, most home to countries there discourse between the ruled and We are seeing with more frequency, that is notnoticeable the case. More the ruler's. labor is coming back to where it is wanted, needed and builders have found a surplus of framing crews and more competitive pricing. The further from the My forecast for housing and lumber is that "the wall" may welcomed. The reward is worth the risk. border, the better situation. reduce the migrant traffic for a couple of years, but as long as US In Texas, legitimate green the cardlabor holders' are being delayed businesses continue to provide good paying jobs, undocumented through customs. By contrast, in the southeast, there is a workers will find cracks to slip through. Until the wall is built, labor significantly noticeable return of framing crews. For the past The labor return will be a problem for data dependent analyses as it reveals higher unemployment will return everywhere it is needed and welcomed. Ultimately there 12 months most home builders have found a surplus of and and lower wages in 2020. WhatThe I do not know writing is if the “return” consists of documented will be a showdown when Uncle Sam enforces his will. framing crews more competitive pricing. further from at this Line: For US 2019-2020, as labor back" so the border, better the laborimmigrants situation. orthe undocumented or if it’s a sector of•Bottom the unemployed labor force that"comes is attracted bywill lumber demand. You heard it first from LLG. The labor return will be a problem for data dependent higher wages. analyses as it reveals higher unemployment and lower
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