DON’T BE COUNTING CHICKENS As we go to press, the ALP is 10 points or so ahead of a beleaguered Coalition. But as political analyst Ben Raue reports, a federal Labor victory is by no means a shoo-in. he next federal election is due in May, and right now the Coalition government is in a lot of trouble, with Labor in the box seat to come back to power after nine years in opposition. Labor has led the Coalition in every recent poll, often by quite large margins. Overall the margins have
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generally been larger than they were in 2019, which resulted in a surprise Coalition victory. In addition to Labor’s support, Scott Morrison’s personal popularity is much worse than in 2019, trailing Anthony Albanese on “preferred prime minister” metrics, despite that figure usually favouring the incumbent, and with a majority of respondents expressing dissatisfaction.
20 | Inner Sydney Voice | Autumn 2022 | innersydneyvoice.org.au
The Coalition won 77 seats at the last federal election, one more seat than a bare majority in the House of Representatives. One Liberal seat in Western Australia has been abolished and replaced by a new Labor seat in Victoria, reducing the Coalition count to 76, plus they have lost the seat of Hughes where the sitting MP has defected from the Liberals to the United Australia Party.
