Bridges point out there will be far fewer auto deaths than there are today. Cars likely won’t be as big, mostly seating five or fewer people. How do you go somewhere with a larger group? Ford says autonomous shuttle systems will emerge. Think of it as Uber but with shuttles instead of cars. Inevitably when you’re introducing a technology, there will be bumps in the road, Bridges said. “But eventually, it will seem normal to send your kids to school in a driverless car.” He emphasizes that these vehicles will be very secure with multiple cameras and the ability to summon the police. “You’ll pick up your phone and summon a ride. There are no issues with parking, congestion, or having a second beer. Saving thousands of dollars a year will convince many people to buy miles instead of metal.” The cumulative annual savings from all these different areas is estimated to be over a trillion dollars. That’s not to say there won’t be some negatives. Even with its changes, the car industry will be hit hard, along with oil producers. It’s estimated that one vehicle will serve anywhere from 7 to 10 people. Cars will go continuously from one fare to the next, sometimes picking up rideshare passengers along the way. “There are huge implications for the auto industry, yet they’re all fighting to be first,” Bridges says. “They’re moving at an amazing pace.” OTHER IMPLICATIONS Congestion and Land Use In 2015, automakers sold 17.5 million new vehicles. With one driverless car replacing so many traditional cars, new car sales will significantly decline as mobility services expand. Thirty percent of congestion is caused by accidents, so fewer accidents means less congestion. And with efficient ridesharing strategies like those now being implemented by Lyft and Uber, road capacity would substantially increase without the need to expand highways. Dedicated driverless HOV lanes could carry as many commuters as several regular lanes.
Land could be used in different ways if cars are being driven more — dropping one person at the gym and heading out from there to take someone else to another destination. Do we need as much parking? Less parking, more parks. When there is an accident, who’s at fault? Driverless cars create and record a 3D world view movie up to 200 yards on all sides. If there is an accident, there’s not much question who is at fault. Bad news for personal injury attorneys?
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Insurance How would auto insurance work? Ford says it might be like the cruise industry where you’re covered while you’re on the ship. Likewise, you would be covered while you’re being transported.
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Transportation and Logistics Semi-trucks can operate 24/7, no longer reliant on when people can stay awake. Goods can be delivered in half the time, but truckers may lose jobs. “Unfortunately, there will be winners and losers,” Bridges says. There is no part of life or the economy that autonomous vehicles will not impact. DATA IS THE NEW ASPHALT Ford says the federal government is mandating that vehicles have the ability to talk back and forth to each other about where they’re going, road conditions, and what they’re doing. A car senses the road is slippery and knows there’s a tight turn ahead. It tells other cars, ‘I’m braking now, so you brake now.’ “A Tesla throws off a gigabyte of data every second,” Ford says. “How do you share that data back and forth so you maximize these autonomous systems?” CDOT is already using similar technology to share and manage information in its system, such as for deploying snowplows.
Bridges points out that half of all 16- to 19-year olds don’t have their driver’s licenses. “It’s a different attitude today,” he says. “They’re often more interested in having the latest smartphone technology than owning a car.” While people tend to be afraid of driverless technology at first, once they experience it firsthand, they realize it’s just not such a big deal. “You’d be surprised how quickly people get comfortable,” Bridges says. “The first time they’re in a driverless car, they watch everything. Then after a while, they just kick back.” Ford says the public looks at driverless technology from the safety and privacy angle, and they think, “I’m not going to let a computer drive for me.” But we’re already on the path to autonomy. “The reality is our cars are already starting to drive for us,” she says. “This is just the next step.” s
September/October 2017 • www.cocpa.org •
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