Coastal Market Report Q3

Third Quarter 2021 Market Report Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Stellar MLS

Economic Overview Nationally By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Despite early hopes for a spectacular Q3, cases of the Delta variant of COVID-19 began to rise throughout July and August and economic projections progressively worsened. We are likely to end up with 21Q3 GDP growth around 3%, which is quite disappointing compared to the 7% we initially forecast. Some of the pent-up demand for consumer spending that we were unable to satisfy in 21Q3 will shift forward into 21Q4, so all is not lost. I expect that 21Q4 GDP growth will be around 5%, supported by continuing job growth and pentup demand. We are also hopefully seeing something of an “end” to the pandemic phase of COVID, and while it will undoubtedly remain an ongoing public health concern, with a full 57% of the population vaccinated and a considerable number with at least some level of natural immunity due to prior exposure, the chance of a wintertime surge again this year looks unlikely. Overall, for 2021, I expect GDP growth to come in around 5%, well above our pre-COVID trend of around 2-2.25%. Looking even further into the future, GDP growth for 2022 and 2023 will continue to slow toward normal, such that by the end of 2023, we should be back around 2-2.25%.

Job growth, while solid, is uninspiring but is likely to improve as COVID numbers steadily recede. I expect to see monthly job growth, on average, of about 350,000 jobs per month through the end of 2022. Inflation remains a real problem, although there are signs that we may have seen the peak. Still, since the inflation we are experiencing appears likely to linger somewhat longer, calling it transitory may no longer be justified and the term “ephemeral” may be more applicable. Supply chain bottlenecks continue to be complicated and widespread, and “just-in-time” “just-in-case” hoarding. The trajectory longer than we previously anticipated.

In terms of Federal Reserve Bank will begin coming to an end as early than January of 2022, when the treasuries

and

mortgage-backed

presumably end in either Q2 or Q3 Fed will begin raising interest rates, conditioned on prevailing inflationary quite contractionary, and starting 2.5%/annum, the most contractionary least another 12 months.

A significant amount of uncertainty increase is all but assured, but the Relatedly, two large spending bills are

Year-over-year metrics are suffering simply in comparison to the overheated market we experienced ...

Prices will remain strong, although likely with slower price appreciation ...

“

supply chain management has become of inflation now appears to be higher for

actions, expansionary monetary policy as November of this year, and no later Fed begins to taper its purchases of securities.

The tapering process will

of 2022, and sometime after that, the which could be as early as late 2022, pressures. Similarly, fiscal policy is now in 21Q2, began reducing GDP by about stance in decades. This is likely to last at

currently prevails on Capitol Hill. A tax size and details are largely unknown. being negotiated, along with the next

iteration of the debt ceiling debate. The stock market has, at least so far, taken things in stride, aided by solid earnings. Regardless of what is ultimately negotiated in terms of spending and tax increases, it is unlikely to dramatically alter the markets, as the contours of a deal are becoming increasingly clearer.

Nationally, the housing market continues to do very well and is unquestionably strong. That said, we may be seeing some slight signs of slowing as inventories finally begin to rise just a bit. This is more indicative of a market that is settling into a normal, healthy pattern instead of the frenetic pace we saw in the last half of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Year-over-year metrics are suffering simply in comparison to the overheated market we experienced last summer and fall. Prices will remain strong, although likely with slower price appreciation going forward.

Economic Overview Florida In Florida, statewide unemployment rate was 5.0% as of August 2021, well below the national average of 5.9% and down substantially from the peak of 14.2% in May of 2020. In Hillsborough County, the August 2021 unemployment rate was 4.4%, while in Pinellas County it was 4.2%. Inflation-adjusted real GDP for the state in 21Q2 was estimated at $994.2 billion, higher than the pre-COVID peak of $978.7 billion in 4th Quarter 2019.

Across the state of Florida, the median sale price of single-family homes through the month of August (the latest data available) rose to $339,000; a 21.1% gain over last year, while the townhome/condo median sale price rose by 17.7% to $245,900. Average prices for both types of properties were up by just slightly more than 30.0% compared to last August. Compared to last year, closed sales of singlefamily homes through August were up 21.5% while townhome and condo sales were up 55.9%. Inventories remain very tight. With slightly more than 60,000 listings statewide at the end of August, there is a 1.3 month’s supply of single-family inventories, about half of last August’s levels, and 1.7 month’s supply of townhomes and condos, down by about two-thirds from last year.

In Hillsborough and Pinellas counties (combined data), September median prices saw significant gains over last year, with single-family homes increasing 25.4% to $365,000; an all-time high, and townhomes and condos up 16.4% to $227,000; also a record. Average prices were up as well, with single-family homes at $457,350; up 22.0% over last year, and townhomes and condos at $304,962; up 8.2% but not at a record high. Closed sales of single-family homes through September compared to last year were down by 23.7% while sales of townhomes and condos were nearly flat compared to last year. New listings of single-family homes were up by 4.1%, while new listings of townhomes and condos were up just 1.7% over last year. Month’s supply of inventory of both types of properties is 0.8 months, a slight increase over 21Q2. In what may be a sign of a return to seasonality, pending sales at the end of the quarter are down again this quarter, after the highs at the end of 21Q1. However, the biggest takeaway from the most recent data is that inventory was climbing steadily for 16 weeks since the end of April but has dropped again now for six weeks in a row.

Florida’s low-cost, low-tax environment continues to attract firms relocating from the high-tax, high-cost northeast. While some have moved to the east coast of Florida, Tampa recently gained big with a high-profile announcement that ARK Invest would be moving to St. Petersburg, Florida, in November. Founder Cathie Wood described St. Petersburg as “the next Austin” and as highly attractive to tech and innovation. This is surely a sign of additional high-income/high-wealth buyers to the Tampa area in the future.

About the Author: Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a Miami-based firm specializing in national and international macroeconomic consulting and speaking. Dr. Eisenberg earned his Ph.D. from Syracuse University and was formerly a senior economist with the National Association of Home Builders. He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, and authors a daily 70-word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.

Hillsborough County Single-Family Homes Both median and average prices for single-family homes in Hillsborough County for 21Q3 rose to all-time highs. The median price of $360,000 was up 24% compared to 2020 and the average sale price of $439,287 gained 20% over last year.

Q3 sales volume of nearly $2.5 billion was up 12% over last year and was just below last quarter’s all-time high.

The most expensive single-family property sold in Hillsborough County during Q3 2021 sold for $16 million.

Closed sales of 5,663 during Q3 were down 6% from 2020, while new listings of 6,379 were 6% higher than last year. There were 1,512 homes available for sale at the end September, representing 0.8 month’s supply of inventory, a slight improvement over the 0.6 month’s supply at the end of June.

Compared to the same period last year, average days on market declined 65% to 14. This compares to 17 days on market in 21Q2.

The percent of sold price to original list price compared to last year increased from 98% to 100%.

Median Sold Price

Aver age Sold Price

$360,000

400

400

$290,000

Thousands

Thousands

$365,777

350

350

250 200 150 100

300 250 200 150 100 50

50 0

$439,287

450

450

300

“

2020

2021

2020

2021

THIRD QUARTER

24%

0

2020

2021

2020

2021

THIRD Quarter

20%

Closed Sales 6000

6,047

5,663

5000

2.5

5,663

Billions

3000 2000 1000 2020 2020

Dollar Volume $2,211,854,839

$2,487,683,342

2.0

4000

0

3.0

1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

2021 2021

2020 2020

2021 2021

Third Quarter

Third Quarter

12%

6%

Percent Sold Price to Original List Price

100%

98%

100%

100%

2% Third Quarter

2020

2021

New Listings

5,552 6,028

6,558 6,379

Aver age Days on Market

40

14

2020

2021

2021 2020

2021

Third Quarter

6%

Third Quarter

65%

20256 GULF Blvd

Indian Shores, Florida

4 BEDROOMS | 7 BATHS | 4,148 SQ FT

343 Bluff View Dr Belleair Bluffs, Florida

5 BEDROOMS | 5 BATHS | 5,734 SQ FT

Hillsborough County Condos and Townhomes The median price for townhome and condos in Hillsborough County rose 24% to $230,000, just slightly above the prior high of $225,000 from 21Q2. The average price of $275,924 rose 14% over last year but fell slightly from prices earlier in the year.

Sales volume increased 15% compared to 20Q3 but fell below last quarter’s record level.

The number of townhomes and condos sold this quarter was almost flat compared to last year at 1,769; as were new listings of 1,869. There were just 343 active listings on the market at the end of September, which represents a little bit more than two weeks’ worth of inventory.

Compared to last year, average days on market for townhomes and condos fell to 12 days, down from 43 days in 20Q3 and from 18 days in 21Q2. The percent of sold price to original list price increased to 101%, slightly higher than both last quarter and last year.

Median Sold Price

200 150 100 50 0

300

$230,000 $184,900

2020 2020

2021 2021

THIRD QUARTER

24%

“

Aver age Sold Price

Thousands

Thousands

300

In the condo and townhome market, the most expensive home sold during Q3 in Hillsborough County sold for more than $7.2 million.

$243,014

$275,924

200 150 100 50 0

2020 2020

2021 2021

Third Quarter

14%

Dollar Volume

Closed Sales 600

4000

3000 2000

1,769

1,747

1000

Millions

500

$488,109,272 $424,545,127

400 300 200 100

0

2020 2020

2021 2021

0.0

2020 2020

2021 2021

Third Quarter

Third Quarter

1%

15%

Percent Sold Price to Original List Price 99% 99%

101% 101%

100% 100%

100% 100%

2020

1,834

Third Quarter

2021

New Listings 5,552

2%

6,558

1,869

Aver age Days on Market

43

12

2020

2021

2021 2020

2021

Third Quarter

2%

Third Quarter

72%

301 S SHORE CREST Dr TAMPA, Florida

4 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHS | 1,980 SQ FT

572 W Davis Blvd

Tampa, Florida

4 BEDROOMS | 2 BATHS | 2 , 332 SQ FT

Pinellas County Single-Family Homes In Pinellas County, the median sale price of a single-family home set a record at $371,000 and gained 18% over last year. The average price was up by a much smaller 1% to $486,786; still an all-time high.

Sales volume of single-family homes in Pinellas County during 21Q3 totaled nearly $1.7 billion, a 5% increase over last year.

Closed sales during the quarter declined to 3,475; 11% less than last year, while new listings were nearly flat at 3,939.

There were 1,048 single-family properties on the market at the end of the quarter, which is approaching a one-month supply of inventory.

The most expensive single-family home sold in Pinellas County during Q321 sold for $10.5 million.

Average days on market for single-family homes in Pinellas County fell to 16 days during the quarter (compared to 38 days last year), while the percent of sold price to original list price of 99% was up from 98% last year but down from 100% at the end of last quarter.

“

Median Sold Price $371,000

400

500

$315,000

300

Thousands

Thousands

350

250 200 150 100 50 0

Aver age Sold Price

2020 2020

2021 2021

THIRD QUARTER

18%

$486,786 $413,353

400 300 200 100 0

2020

2021

2020

2021

THIRD Quarter

18%

Dollar Volume

Closed Sales 3.0 4000

3,887

Billions

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

2.5

3,475

3500

2.0

$1,691,579,947 $1,606,703,023

1.5 1.0 0.5

2020

2021

2020

2021

Third Quarter

0.0

2020

2021

2020

2021

Third Quarter

11%

5%

Percent Sold Price to Original List Price 98%

99%

2020

2021

Third Quarter

New Listings

5,552 3,886

1%

6,558 3,939

Aver age Days on Market

38

16

2020

2021

2021 2020

2021

Third Quarter

1%

Third Quarter

58%

3730 Belle Vista Dr St. Pete Beach, Florida 4 BEDROOMS | 5 BATHS | 3, 576 SQ FT

1028 79TH Street S

St. Petersburg, Florida 4 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHS | 2 ,153 SQ FT

Pinellas County Condos and Townhomes Condo and townhome prices in Pinellas County of $223,000 were a slight 3% above prices last year but slipped just below last quarter’s record high. The average price of $327,315 was 5% more than last year but also below last quarter’s $331,246.

Dollar volume of townhome and condo sales during Q321 was 4% more than last year at $752 million, well below Q2’s recordsetting $1 billion volume.

In the condo and townhome market in Pinellas County, the most expensive property sold during q3, sold for more than $3.2 million.

The number of closed sales compared to last year was almost flat at 2,298; as were new listings at 2,539. Active inventories of 691 units are about a one month’s supply of inventory.

Average days on market for condos and townhomes in Pinellas County fell to 22 from 30 days in June and from 60 days last year. The percent of sold price to original list price increased from 97% in 20Q3 to 99%, the same as at the end of 21Q3.

Median Sold Price

Aver age Sold Price 400

300

Thousands

Thousands

$217,500

150 100 50 0

300

$223,000

200

2020 2020

2021 2021

“

$310,726

$327,315

200 150 100 50 0

2020 2020

2021 2021

THIRD QUARTER

THIRD Quarter

3%

5%

Dollar Volume

Closed Sales 800 700 3000

$752,170,354

600

2,334

2,298

500

Millions

2000 1500 1000 500 0

$725,234,376

400 300 200 100

2020

2021

2020

2021

0.0

2020

2021

2020

2021

Third Quarter

Third Quarter

2%

4%

Percent Sold Price to Original List Price 97%

99%

2020

2021

New Listings

5,552 2,500

6,558 2,539

2% Third Quarter

Aver age Days on Market

60

22

2020

2021

2021 2020

2021

Third Quarter

2%

Third Quarter

63%

12814 Harborwood Dr Largo, Florida

4 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHS | 5,074 SQ FT

201 Old Oak Ln

Ozona, Florida

5 BEDROOMS | 5 BATHS | 6, 574 SQ FT

644 BOCA CIEGA ISLE Dr St. Pete Beach, Florida 4 BEDROOMS | 6 BATHS | 3,138 SQ FT