Contemporary state building through democratization
Claudia López Northwestern University – Political Science - CHSS PhD Dissertation
February 15, 2019
Contemporary state building through democratization
Scope conditions, theoretical and methodological frameworks
Classic .vs. Contemporary state building scope conditions • •
•
•
The classic European SB Transition from feudalism. Main unit of analysis: emergence of national sovereign states Main drivers: challenges of interstate war making, trans local commerce Sovereign State emergence determined the process of regime formation – Democracy – Fascism – Communism
Contemporary state building • Post WWII, dual sovereignty • Main unit of analysis: subnational state building • Main drivers: challenges of subnational unevenness of stateness and democraticness • Within regime change and operation determines trajectories of state building – De Jure – De Facto – Hybrid
¿What is contemporary state building? • Contentious political processes of liberalization, decentralization and peace making to institutionalize the legitimate monopoly and enforcement of governmental means of coercion, extraction, and representation at the subnational level vis-à-vis the national level. • What has changed is not the definition of what a state is, but how it is built: unit of analysis and drivers • Within regime change rather than national ”transitology” shapes contemporary state building.
¿What explains contemporary state building?
DEMOCRATIZATION
• Three main process-sequences explain contemporary state building: 1. Liberalization National Reforms 2. Decentralization 3. Peacemaking • The three contemporary process-sequences (set of ordered events, episodes, and mechanisms) unfold along a continuous structural historical sequence of waves of democratization and state building, whose main legacies are Colonial Legacy-Restricted Democracy-Limited State Capacity – Armed Conflict
• Process-sequences events’ timing and order matters; they can convergence in critical junctures that open up agency and strategic choices that shape state building trajectories.
Three level concept of contemporary Subnational State Building with necessary and sufficient conditions Centralized and subnational institutionalization of coercion
For long term, non survival protection
As lawful last resource
* Contemporary Subnational State Building
Centralized and subnational institutionalization of extraction
As regular taxation
As certain adjudication effects
*
Centralized and subnational institutionalization of legitimacy Conjunction of non causal necesary conditions
-- . . -- Ontological
As protected citizenship
As protected representation _____ non Substitutability
*
AND
Three level concept of civil war making as the negative pole of contemporary subnational state building For short term, strategic survival
oligopolies of coercion
Unlawful, first resource
* As irregular collection
disperssion of extraction
Civil war making
Unanticipated adjudication effects
* multiple sovereignties non centralized political contestation
Conjunction of non causal necesary conditions
-- . . -- Ontological
As despise collaboration
As discontinous responsiveness
_____ non Substitutability
*
AND
Ontological dimensions of Stateness Ontological dimensions of contemporary state building through democratization
legitimacy
coercion
extraction
Coercion
DEMOCRATIZATION
Citizenship & Representation
STATENESS
Extraction
The analytical framework of contemporary state building D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N
D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N
Continuous structural sequence of state building
D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N
*
CRITICAL JUNCTURE
State building trajectories
STATENESS *
Contingency and agency
Contemporary state building through democratization - processes, critical juncture, mechanisms, outcomes -
D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N
Liberalization
Decentralization Indirect rule Institutions Coercion*Ext*Leg
* Critical Juncture
Cross class coalitions
* Political relevant actors
Peace-making
Colombia’s structural historical sequence of state building
State building trajectories
STATENESS
re Ju e D al d n bri tio y a H bn & e Su r u eJ D al on i t id Na br y H al to n io ac t F a e bn u lD a S n tio a bn Su
Contemporary state building through democratization - processes, mechanisms, choices, and outcomes Processes
Peacemaking
S
Indirect rule Institutions Coercion*Ext*Leg
Liberalization
Decentralization
Outcomes State building trajectories
Mechanisms
D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N
Cross class coalitions
Political relevant actors
C
N R
DE JURE
HYBRID
DE FACTO
INSTITUTIONALIZATION
INSTITUTIONALIZATION
INSTITUTIONALIZATION
De Jure Subnational I*R*S
De Jure National I*N*S
Hybrid National E*N*S Hybrid National I*N*C
I E
De Facto National E*N*C
Hybrid Subnational E*R*S
Citizenship & Representation
Hybrid National I*R*C
De Facto Subnational E*R*C
Coercion
Extraction
STATENESS
Contemporary state building through democratization
Colombia’s case
Multi partisan democracy
RD
LSC
AC
End Cold War Neo Liberalism War on drugs
D3 Post Cold War War on drugs & terrorism Globalization
The Constituyente (1991-2018)
CL
Post WWII Cold War ISI
Post WWI 1929 Crisis
D3
D2
Post National Front (1982–1990)
Industrial Revolution Gold Standard Monroe doctrine US Big Steak US Civil War
D2
The National Front (1957-1974)
D1
Liberal Republic (1930-1946)
D1
Conservative hegemony (1885-1930)
Bipartisan oligarchic democracy
Liberal Radicalism (1849 – 1885)
3rd
Colombia’s structural historical sequence of state building through waves of democratization
Colombia’s structural historical sequence of state building
Federalism Laissez faire Tabaco rents
Centralism Peasant incorporation Bipartisan alternation Bipartisan fragmentation Third force emergence Protectionism Labor incorporation Military rule Armed groups consolidation Armed groups incorporation Panama’s compensation Coffee rents Marihuana rents Cocaine rents Oil rents & Decentralization CL: Colonial Legacy
RD: Restricted Democracy
LSD: Limited State Capacity
AC: Armed Conflict
Colombia’s Analytical Framework of Contemporary State Building through democratization D3. La Constituyente (1982-2018) - Sequential processes, critical juncture, mechanisms, choices, and outcomes-
Colombia’s Contemporary State Building through democratization During D3. La Constituyente (1982-2018) Choices taken at the national level in the liberalization, decentralization and peace making sequences BETANCURBARCOGAVIRIA
SAMPER
I*R*S
I*N*C
I*N*S I M19 PRT MQL EPL MP Escobar
E PEPES CCALI FARC ELN
I*R*C I CRS MIR COAR
E ACCU FARC ELN CCALI
PASTRANA
I/E * N * C E*R*C E AUC FARC ELN CNV
URIBE I / II
I*N*S
SANTOS I / II
DUQUE
I*N*C
E*N*S
I*R*C
E*R*C
E * N/R * C
I AUC
E BACRIM FARC ELN CNV
I FARC
E BACRIM NARCOS ELN
E BACRIM NARCOS ELN
Outcomes at the subnational level vis a vis the national level in the 3 process-sequences OVERALL BIPARTISAN FRAGMENTATION
OVERALL PARTISAN FRAGMENTATION
NATIONAL MULTIPARTISAN REGIONAL PARTISAN FRAGMENTATION
DECENTRALIZATION
ADJUSTMEN FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION
FISCAL RECENTRALIZATION
CENTER LEADING PERIPHERY INCLUSION
PERIPHERY LEADING CENTER COOPTATION
CENTER LEADING PERIPHERY COOPTATION
Liberalization sequence
Liberalization rules change
Liberalization change
Liberalization change
Liberalization change
Liberalization change
Liberalization change
Decentralization sequence
Decentralization change Resources mediating center periphery linkages
Peacemaking sequence
Armed Group, demobilization date
# of demobilized combatants
1. Movimiento 19 de abril, M19, March 1990
900
2. Partido Revolucionario de los Trabajadores-PRT, January 1991
200
3. Ejército Popular de Liberación, EPL, February 1991
2.000
4. Movimiento Armado Quintín Lame, MAQL, May 1991
157
5. Corriente de Renovación Socialista, April 1994
433
*Comandos Ernesto Rojas, CER 1991-1994
25
* Otros grupos 1991-1994
5
* Milicias Populares de Medellin 1991-1994 * Frente Francisco Garnica 6. MIR - COAR, July 1998
650 150 171
Regional programs and armed groups demobilizations evaluated Regional Programs Treatment Evaluated
Treatment / Post Treatment period
PNR (Betancur, Barco and Gaviria governments)
1983-1994 / 1995
Plante (Samper and Pastrana governments)
1995-2002 / 2003 1999-2010 / 2011
7. AUC - Paramilitares December 2003 to August 2006
31.671
Plan Colombia (Pastrana and Uribe governments)
8. FARC, December 2016
14.000
M 19 and EPL demobilization
1983-1990 / 1991-1998
AUC demobilization
1991-2003 / 2006-2011
TOTAL
50.362
FARC demobilization
2006-2016 / 2017
Peacemaking change PNR VARIABLES
coef
sd
Plante pval
coef
sd
Plan Colombia pval
coef
sd
pval
Extraction variables Current income
4,871*
(2702)
0.071
2,156
(2183)
0.323
-3,917
(2856)
0.17
Tax income
3,902**
(1836)
0.034
1,763
(1493)
0.237
-3,191
(2011)
0.112
Total income
13,196**
(5911)
0.026
5,086
(4362)
0.244
-2,011
(1630)
0.217
Current income percapita
0.0958***
(0.031)
0.002
0.00899
(0.026)
0.729
0.0115***
(0.003)
0.001
Tax income percapita
0.0275***
(0.003)
0
0.0162*
(0.009)
0.062
0.00344*
(0.002)
0.051
Government transfers
0.00372
(0.008)
0.645
0.00296
(0.008)
0.708
-0.00138
(0.006)
0.806
Own resource dependence
269.0***
(84.65)
0.001
75.01
(71.91)
0.297
-25.44
(50.98)
0.618
% own resources
355.7***
(42.71)
0
260.5***
(40.5)
0
-115.7***
(32.78)
0
0.280
(0.187)
0.134
-0.780***
(0.222)
0
-0.274
(0.174)
0.115
M19 offensive actions rate
0.145
(0.111)
0.192
-0.0192
(0.019)
0.315
-0.0136
(0.013)
0.301
EPL offensive actions rate
0.0991***
(0.031)
0.002
-0.00884
(0.006)
0.137
-0.0156***
(0.005)
0.001
Paramilitar off. actions rate
-0.0556
(0.359)
0.877
-1.419***
(0.24)
0
0.572***
(0.217)
0.009
State offensive actions rate
-3.780***
(0.387)
0
-7.754***
(0.833)
0
1.986***
(0.409)
0
Coercion variables ELN offensive actions rate
FARC offensive actions rate
-1.545*
(0.794)
0.0518
-0.895***
(0.31)
0.004
0.294
(0.189)
0.121
Mines rate
-2.870***
(0.539)
0
-8.013***
(1.15)
0
5.392***
(0.974)
0
Congress turnout
0.0127**
(0.00583)
0.0296
0.00730
(0.007)
0.318
-0.0282***
(0.004)
0
Mayors elections turnout
0.0366***
(0.00687)
0
-0.0462***
(0.015)
0.002
-0.0220***
(0.006)
0
Presidency turnout
0.0353***
(0.00766)
0
-0.00816
(0.008)
0.277
-0.0287***
(0.004)
0
Mayor dominance rate
0.0124**
(0.00496)
0.0124
0.00744
(0.01)
0.435
-0.000312
(0.006)
0.957
Presidency dominance rate
0.105***
(0.0130)
0
0.0650***
(0.013)
0
-0.0513***
(0.009)
0
-0.0624***
(0.0223)
0.005
0.0116
(0.066)
0.861
0.0299
(0.027)
0.267
-0.0423*
(0.0240)
0.078
0.143**
(0.056)
0.01
0.0908***
(0.02)
0
ENPR for senate
-0.0694
(0.0595)
0.244
-0.0444
(0.102)
0.663
0.122**
(0.048)
0.011
ENPR for house of representatives
0.158***
(0.0422)
0
-0.0372
(0.055)
0.497
-0.0425
(0.053)
0.424
ENPR for local chambers
0.0999
(0.0622)
0.108
0.195**
(0.099)
0.049
-0.0651
(0.061)
0.287
ENPR for governor
-0.0212
(0.0266)
0.426
-0.0303
Social struggle rate
2.415**
(0.967)
0.013
3.62e-05
(0.494)
0.134
Democratic participation varaibles
ENPR for mayor ENPR for presidency
0.0164 (0.34)
1
0.741
Peacemaking change De jure base effect VARIABLES
coef
sd
Interaction with Hybrid pval
coef
sd
Interaction with De facto pval
coef
sd
pval
Extraction variables Current income
1801
(3632)
0.62
-1604
(3732)
0.667
-779.9
(3647)
0.831
Tax income
1526
(3984)
0.702
-1317
(4042)
0.745
-727.4
(4139)
0.86
Total income
-3664
(12225)
0.764
10752
(10814)
0.32
11742
(10599)
0.268
Current income percapita
0.075
(0.054)
0.17
-0.0583
(0.053)
0.275
-0.011
(0.055)
0.843
Tax income percapita
-0.015
(0.015)
0.33
0.02
(0.014)
0.163
0.0404**
(0.016)
0.01
Government transfers
0.0334**
(0.015)
0.028
-0.0816***
(0.02)
0
-0.023
(0.016)
0.161
Own resource dependence
-545.6***
(199.9)
0.006
934.9***
(213.3)
0
752.5***
(196.8)
0
% own resources
-231.4**
(98.91)
0.019
399.1***
(101.8)
0
469.9***
(101)
0
Coercion variables ELN offensive actions rate
-0.0518
(0.149)
0.727
-0.157
(0.538)
0.771
0.000748
(0.182)
0.997
M19 offensive actions rate
-0.0209
(0.017)
0.224
0.00562
(0.009)
0.523
0.107
(0.079)
0.174
EPL offensive actions rate
0.00594
(0.024)
0.805
0.0171
(0.035)
0.625
0.0450
(0.031)
0.144
Paramilitar off. actions rate
-0.185
(0.434)
0.67
0.215
(0.479)
0.653
0.230
(0.563)
0.683
State offensive actions rate
-0.412
(0.282)
0.144
-0.866
(0.547)
0.113
-1.977***
(0.336)
0
-0.117
(0.366)
0.749
0.0287
(0.394)
0.942
-0.979***
(0.358)
0.006
-0.796***
(0.233)
0.001
1.046
(0.976)
0.284
1.054**
(0.456)
0.021
FARC offensive actions rate Mines rate
Democratic participation varaibles Congress turnout Mayors elections turnout Presidency turnout
-0.0249***
(0.007)
0.001
0.0202**
(0.009)
0.023
0.0232***
(0.009)
0.009
-0.00804
(0.009)
0.352
-0.00592
(0.011)
0.594
0.0174**
(0.009)
0.048
-0.0337***
(0.009)
0
0.0278**
(0.011)
0.014
0.0442***
(0.008)
0
Mayor dominance rate
0.0196**
(0.009)
0.035
-0.0192*
(0.012)
0.099
-0.0143
(0.011)
0.194
Presidency dominance rate
0.0565***
(0.02)
0.005
-0.0646***
(0.024)
0.007
-0.0165
(0.021)
0.436
-0.0234
(0.068)
0.731
0.0910
(0.076)
0.23
-0.00447
(0.068)
0.948
-0.227***
(0.053)
0
0.242***
(0.065)
0
0.302***
(0.056)
0
ENPR for senate
0.0111
(0.132)
0.933
0.148
(0.143)
0.298
-0.0331
(0.143)
0.817
ENPR for house of representatives
0.0965
(0.108)
0.372
0.0249
(0.112)
0.825
-0.0472
(0.111)
0.672
ENPR for local chambers
0.0547
(0.152)
0.719
0.0844
(0.155)
0.587
-0.0158
(0.154)
0.919
ENPR for governor
-0.0768
(0.063)
0.226
0.0340
(0.076)
0.654
0.0670
(0.064)
0.295
Social struggle rate
0.933*
(0.567)
0.1
1.673
(1.065)
0.116
0.470
(1.068)
0.66
ENPR for mayor ENPR for presidency
Peacemaking change
Colombia’s Contemporary State Building through democratization D3. La Constituyente (1982-2018) Trajectories of subnational state building
Contemporary state building through democratization
Implications
Contemporary state building implications 1. Process sequences of democratization: Liberalization, Decentralization and Peace-making shape different trajectories of subnational state building depending of which politically relevant actors are included or excluded, how the interaction of formal an informal institutions and actors of indirect rule are ultimately institutionalized across the territory
Contemporary state building implications 2. The national state building trajectory would be an average of the different trajectories of subnational state building depending on the level of subnational vis-Ă -vis the national institutionalization of the state ontological dimensions:
legitimacy
D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N
Colombia’s Contemporary Sequence of state building
Contemporary state building implications 3. The national state building trajectory would be an average of the different trajectories of subnational state building depending on the level of subnational vis-Ă -vis the national institutionalization of the state ontological dimensions:
coercion
D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N
Colombia’s Contemporary Sequence of state building
Contemporary state building implications 4. The national state building trajectory would be an average of the different trajectories of subnational state building depending on the level of subnational vis-Ă -vis the national institutionalization of the state ontological dimensions:
extraction
D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N
Colombia’s Contemporary Sequence of state building
Contemporary state building implications 5. The unfolding and settling of democratization institutions and organizations lead the settling of state organizations State organizations by democratization period Number of Ministries and national entities Most important national D administrative entities added E M in period O C R A T I Z A T I O N
% of public spending % customs/ tax collection % income/tax collection
National employees
1871 - 1930
1930 - 1957
1957 - 1980
1982-2018
8
15
26
50
Justice, Defense, Labor, Infrastructure Planning, Census, DIAN, Ministry of Government, Agriculture Aviation, Security commerce, industry Education, Central and Civil Service and tourism, TICs Bank, Army, National Intelligence Police, Agency, Comptroller, Victims Unit, JEP, Railroads Infrastructure Agency, Oil Agency, Environmental Ministry and Licensing Agency, Territorial Funds
10.5% - 1.3%
9.6% - 14.8%
15.7%
8%-19%
40% - 74%
13% - 28%
10% - 27%
25,4% - 2,8%
5%
10% - 20%
33%
39,2% - 47,1%
60.000
88.000 - 188.000
500.000
1.200.000
Contemporary state building implications 6.The larger de facto over de jure subnational institutionalization of state building, the larger the hybrid national institutionalization of state building
D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N
Colombia’s Contemporary Sequence of state building
Contemporary state building implications 6.The larger the hybrid institutionalization of state building the larger and persistent the social suffering
D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N
Colombia’s Contemporary Sequence of state building
Contemporary state building implications 7. Undertheorized and misleading indicators such as the ”weak states” or “failed states” do not help us understanding and coping with the complexities of contemporary state building
Contemporary state building implications 8. We are living through the reverse of the 3rd democratization wave and the emergence of the 4th democratization wave shaped by global warming, the 4th economic revolution, and contemporary state building legacies. D4
D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N
Global Contemporary Sequence of state building: 4th Democratization wave CHALLENGERS: transnational organized crime, rebels, populists CLEAVAGES: Under and over representation; social suffering: Informality, Inequality, corruption