Contemporary state building through democratization

Contemporary state building through democratization

Claudia López Northwestern University – Political Science - CHSS PhD Dissertation

February 15, 2019

Contemporary state building through democratization

Scope conditions, theoretical and methodological frameworks

Classic .vs. Contemporary state building scope conditions • •

•

•

The classic European SB Transition from feudalism.

Main unit of analysis: emergence of national sovereign states Main drivers: challenges of interstate war making, trans local commerce Sovereign State emergence determined the process of regime formation – Democracy – Fascism – Communism

Contemporary state building • Post WWII, dual sovereignty • Main unit of analysis: subnational state building • Main drivers: challenges of subnational unevenness of stateness and democraticness • Within regime change and operation determines trajectories of state building – De Jure – De Facto – Hybrid

¿What is contemporary state building?

• Contentious political processes of liberalization, decentralization and peace making to institutionalize the legitimate monopoly and enforcement of governmental means of coercion, extraction, and representation at the subnational level vis-à-vis the national level.

• What has changed is not the definition of what a state is, but how it is built: unit of analysis and drivers • Within regime change rather than national ”transitology” shapes contemporary state building.

¿What explains contemporary state building?

DEMOCRATIZATION

• Three main process-sequences explain contemporary state building: 1. Liberalization National Reforms 2. Decentralization 3. Peacemaking • The three contemporary process-sequences (set of ordered events, episodes, and mechanisms) unfold along a continuous structural historical sequence of waves of democratization and state building, whose main legacies are Colonial Legacy-Restricted Democracy-Limited State Capacity – Armed Conflict

• Process-sequences events’ timing and order matters; they can convergence in critical junctures that open up agency and strategic choices that shape state building trajectories.

Three level concept of contemporary Subnational State Building with necessary and sufficient conditions Centralized and subnational institutionalization of coercion

For long term, non survival protection

As lawful last resource

* Contemporary Subnational State Building

Centralized and subnational institutionalization of extraction

As regular taxation

As certain adjudication effects

*

Centralized and subnational institutionalization of legitimacy Conjunction of non causal necesary conditions

-- . . -- Ontological

As protected citizenship

As protected representation _____ non Substitutability

*

AND

Three level concept of civil war making as the negative pole of contemporary subnational state building For short term, strategic survival

oligopolies of coercion

Unlawful, first resource

* As irregular collection

disperssion of extraction

Civil war making

Unanticipated adjudication effects

* multiple sovereignties non centralized political contestation

Conjunction of non causal necesary conditions

-- . . -- Ontological

As despise collaboration

As discontinous responsiveness

_____ non Substitutability

*

AND

Ontological dimensions of Stateness Ontological dimensions of contemporary state building through democratization

legitimacy

coercion

extraction

Coercion

DEMOCRATIZATION

Citizenship & Representation

STATENESS

Extraction

The analytical framework of contemporary state building D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N

D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N

Continuous structural sequence of state building

D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N

*

CRITICAL JUNCTURE

State building trajectories

STATENESS *

Contingency and agency

Contemporary state building through democratization - processes, critical juncture, mechanisms, outcomes -

D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N

Liberalization

Decentralization Indirect rule Institutions Coercion*Ext*Leg

* Critical Juncture

Cross class coalitions

* Political relevant actors

Peace-making

Colombia’s structural historical sequence of state building

State building trajectories

STATENESS

re Ju e D al d n bri tio y a H bn & e Su r u eJ D al on i t id Na br y H al to n io ac t F a e bn u lD a S n tio a bn Su

Contemporary state building through democratization - processes, mechanisms, choices, and outcomes Processes

Peacemaking

S

Indirect rule Institutions Coercion*Ext*Leg

Liberalization

Decentralization

Outcomes State building trajectories

Mechanisms

D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N

Cross class coalitions

Political relevant actors

C

N R

DE JURE

HYBRID

DE FACTO

INSTITUTIONALIZATION

INSTITUTIONALIZATION

INSTITUTIONALIZATION

De Jure Subnational I*R*S

De Jure National I*N*S

Hybrid National E*N*S Hybrid National I*N*C

I E

De Facto National E*N*C

Hybrid Subnational E*R*S

Citizenship & Representation

Hybrid National I*R*C

De Facto Subnational E*R*C

Coercion

Extraction

STATENESS

Contemporary state building through democratization

Colombia’s case

Multi partisan democracy

RD

LSC

AC

End Cold War Neo Liberalism War on drugs

D3 Post Cold War War on drugs & terrorism Globalization

The Constituyente (1991-2018)

CL

Post WWII Cold War ISI

Post WWI 1929 Crisis

D3

D2

Post National Front (1982–1990)

Industrial Revolution Gold Standard Monroe doctrine US Big Steak US Civil War

D2

The National Front (1957-1974)

D1

Liberal Republic (1930-1946)

D1

Conservative hegemony (1885-1930)

Bipartisan oligarchic democracy

Liberal Radicalism (1849 – 1885)

3rd

Colombia’s structural historical sequence of state building through waves of democratization

Colombia’s structural historical sequence of state building

Federalism Laissez faire Tabaco rents

Centralism Peasant incorporation Bipartisan alternation Bipartisan fragmentation Third force emergence Protectionism Labor incorporation Military rule Armed groups consolidation Armed groups incorporation Panama’s compensation Coffee rents Marihuana rents Cocaine rents Oil rents & Decentralization CL: Colonial Legacy

RD: Restricted Democracy

LSD: Limited State Capacity

AC: Armed Conflict

Colombia’s Analytical Framework of Contemporary State Building through democratization D3. La Constituyente (1982-2018) - Sequential processes, critical juncture, mechanisms, choices, and outcomes-

Colombia’s Contemporary State Building through democratization During D3. La Constituyente (1982-2018) Choices taken at the national level in the liberalization, decentralization and peace making sequences BETANCURBARCOGAVIRIA

SAMPER

I*R*S

I*N*C

I*N*S I M19 PRT MQL EPL MP Escobar

E PEPES CCALI FARC ELN

I*R*C I CRS MIR COAR

E ACCU FARC ELN CCALI

PASTRANA

I/E * N * C E*R*C E AUC FARC ELN CNV

URIBE I / II

I*N*S

SANTOS I / II

DUQUE

I*N*C

E*N*S

I*R*C

E*R*C

E * N/R * C

I AUC

E BACRIM FARC ELN CNV

I FARC

E BACRIM NARCOS ELN

E BACRIM NARCOS ELN

Outcomes at the subnational level vis a vis the national level in the 3 process-sequences OVERALL BIPARTISAN FRAGMENTATION

OVERALL PARTISAN FRAGMENTATION

NATIONAL MULTIPARTISAN REGIONAL PARTISAN FRAGMENTATION

DECENTRALIZATION

ADJUSTMEN FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION

FISCAL RECENTRALIZATION

CENTER LEADING PERIPHERY INCLUSION

PERIPHERY LEADING CENTER COOPTATION

CENTER LEADING PERIPHERY COOPTATION

Liberalization sequence

Liberalization rules change

Liberalization change

Liberalization change

Liberalization change

Liberalization change

Liberalization change

Decentralization sequence

Decentralization change Resources mediating center periphery linkages

Peacemaking sequence

Armed Group, demobilization date

# of demobilized combatants

1. Movimiento 19 de abril, M19, March 1990

900

2. Partido Revolucionario de los Trabajadores-PRT, January 1991

200

3. Ejército Popular de Liberación, EPL, February 1991

2.000

4. Movimiento Armado Quintín Lame, MAQL, May 1991

157

5. Corriente de Renovación Socialista, April 1994

433

*Comandos Ernesto Rojas, CER 1991-1994

25

* Otros grupos 1991-1994

5

* Milicias Populares de Medellin 1991-1994 * Frente Francisco Garnica 6. MIR - COAR, July 1998

650 150 171

Regional programs and armed groups demobilizations evaluated Regional Programs Treatment Evaluated

Treatment / Post Treatment period

PNR (Betancur, Barco and Gaviria governments)

1983-1994 / 1995

Plante (Samper and Pastrana governments)

1995-2002 / 2003 1999-2010 / 2011

7. AUC - Paramilitares December 2003 to August 2006

31.671

Plan Colombia (Pastrana and Uribe governments)

8. FARC, December 2016

14.000

M 19 and EPL demobilization

1983-1990 / 1991-1998

AUC demobilization

1991-2003 / 2006-2011

TOTAL

50.362

FARC demobilization

2006-2016 / 2017

Peacemaking change PNR VARIABLES

coef

sd

Plante pval

coef

sd

Plan Colombia pval

coef

sd

pval

Extraction variables Current income

4,871*

(2702)

0.071

2,156

(2183)

0.323

-3,917

(2856)

0.17

Tax income

3,902**

(1836)

0.034

1,763

(1493)

0.237

-3,191

(2011)

0.112

Total income

13,196**

(5911)

0.026

5,086

(4362)

0.244

-2,011

(1630)

0.217

Current income percapita

0.0958***

(0.031)

0.002

0.00899

(0.026)

0.729

0.0115***

(0.003)

0.001

Tax income percapita

0.0275***

(0.003)

0

0.0162*

(0.009)

0.062

0.00344*

(0.002)

0.051

Government transfers

0.00372

(0.008)

0.645

0.00296

(0.008)

0.708

-0.00138

(0.006)

0.806

Own resource dependence

269.0***

(84.65)

0.001

75.01

(71.91)

0.297

-25.44

(50.98)

0.618

% own resources

355.7***

(42.71)

0

260.5***

(40.5)

0

-115.7***

(32.78)

0

0.280

(0.187)

0.134

-0.780***

(0.222)

0

-0.274

(0.174)

0.115

M19 offensive actions rate

0.145

(0.111)

0.192

-0.0192

(0.019)

0.315

-0.0136

(0.013)

0.301

EPL offensive actions rate

0.0991***

(0.031)

0.002

-0.00884

(0.006)

0.137

-0.0156***

(0.005)

0.001

Paramilitar off. actions rate

-0.0556

(0.359)

0.877

-1.419***

(0.24)

0

0.572***

(0.217)

0.009

State offensive actions rate

-3.780***

(0.387)

0

-7.754***

(0.833)

0

1.986***

(0.409)

0

Coercion variables ELN offensive actions rate

FARC offensive actions rate

-1.545*

(0.794)

0.0518

-0.895***

(0.31)

0.004

0.294

(0.189)

0.121

Mines rate

-2.870***

(0.539)

0

-8.013***

(1.15)

0

5.392***

(0.974)

0

Congress turnout

0.0127**

(0.00583)

0.0296

0.00730

(0.007)

0.318

-0.0282***

(0.004)

0

Mayors elections turnout

0.0366***

(0.00687)

0

-0.0462***

(0.015)

0.002

-0.0220***

(0.006)

0

Presidency turnout

0.0353***

(0.00766)

0

-0.00816

(0.008)

0.277

-0.0287***

(0.004)

0

Mayor dominance rate

0.0124**

(0.00496)

0.0124

0.00744

(0.01)

0.435

-0.000312

(0.006)

0.957

Presidency dominance rate

0.105***

(0.0130)

0

0.0650***

(0.013)

0

-0.0513***

(0.009)

0

-0.0624***

(0.0223)

0.005

0.0116

(0.066)

0.861

0.0299

(0.027)

0.267

-0.0423*

(0.0240)

0.078

0.143**

(0.056)

0.01

0.0908***

(0.02)

0

ENPR for senate

-0.0694

(0.0595)

0.244

-0.0444

(0.102)

0.663

0.122**

(0.048)

0.011

ENPR for house of representatives

0.158***

(0.0422)

0

-0.0372

(0.055)

0.497

-0.0425

(0.053)

0.424

ENPR for local chambers

0.0999

(0.0622)

0.108

0.195**

(0.099)

0.049

-0.0651

(0.061)

0.287

ENPR for governor

-0.0212

(0.0266)

0.426

-0.0303

Social struggle rate

2.415**

(0.967)

0.013

3.62e-05

(0.494)

0.134

Democratic participation varaibles

ENPR for mayor ENPR for presidency

0.0164 (0.34)

1

0.741

Peacemaking change De jure base effect VARIABLES

coef

sd

Interaction with Hybrid pval

coef

sd

Interaction with De facto pval

coef

sd

pval

Extraction variables Current income

1801

(3632)

0.62

-1604

(3732)

0.667

-779.9

(3647)

0.831

Tax income

1526

(3984)

0.702

-1317

(4042)

0.745

-727.4

(4139)

0.86

Total income

-3664

(12225)

0.764

10752

(10814)

0.32

11742

(10599)

0.268

Current income percapita

0.075

(0.054)

0.17

-0.0583

(0.053)

0.275

-0.011

(0.055)

0.843

Tax income percapita

-0.015

(0.015)

0.33

0.02

(0.014)

0.163

0.0404**

(0.016)

0.01

Government transfers

0.0334**

(0.015)

0.028

-0.0816***

(0.02)

0

-0.023

(0.016)

0.161

Own resource dependence

-545.6***

(199.9)

0.006

934.9***

(213.3)

0

752.5***

(196.8)

0

% own resources

-231.4**

(98.91)

0.019

399.1***

(101.8)

0

469.9***

(101)

0

Coercion variables ELN offensive actions rate

-0.0518

(0.149)

0.727

-0.157

(0.538)

0.771

0.000748

(0.182)

0.997

M19 offensive actions rate

-0.0209

(0.017)

0.224

0.00562

(0.009)

0.523

0.107

(0.079)

0.174

EPL offensive actions rate

0.00594

(0.024)

0.805

0.0171

(0.035)

0.625

0.0450

(0.031)

0.144

Paramilitar off. actions rate

-0.185

(0.434)

0.67

0.215

(0.479)

0.653

0.230

(0.563)

0.683

State offensive actions rate

-0.412

(0.282)

0.144

-0.866

(0.547)

0.113

-1.977***

(0.336)

0

-0.117

(0.366)

0.749

0.0287

(0.394)

0.942

-0.979***

(0.358)

0.006

-0.796***

(0.233)

0.001

1.046

(0.976)

0.284

1.054**

(0.456)

0.021

FARC offensive actions rate Mines rate

Democratic participation varaibles Congress turnout Mayors elections turnout Presidency turnout

-0.0249***

(0.007)

0.001

0.0202**

(0.009)

0.023

0.0232***

(0.009)

0.009

-0.00804

(0.009)

0.352

-0.00592

(0.011)

0.594

0.0174**

(0.009)

0.048

-0.0337***

(0.009)

0

0.0278**

(0.011)

0.014

0.0442***

(0.008)

0

Mayor dominance rate

0.0196**

(0.009)

0.035

-0.0192*

(0.012)

0.099

-0.0143

(0.011)

0.194

Presidency dominance rate

0.0565***

(0.02)

0.005

-0.0646***

(0.024)

0.007

-0.0165

(0.021)

0.436

-0.0234

(0.068)

0.731

0.0910

(0.076)

0.23

-0.00447

(0.068)

0.948

-0.227***

(0.053)

0

0.242***

(0.065)

0

0.302***

(0.056)

0

ENPR for senate

0.0111

(0.132)

0.933

0.148

(0.143)

0.298

-0.0331

(0.143)

0.817

ENPR for house of representatives

0.0965

(0.108)

0.372

0.0249

(0.112)

0.825

-0.0472

(0.111)

0.672

ENPR for local chambers

0.0547

(0.152)

0.719

0.0844

(0.155)

0.587

-0.0158

(0.154)

0.919

ENPR for governor

-0.0768

(0.063)

0.226

0.0340

(0.076)

0.654

0.0670

(0.064)

0.295

Social struggle rate

0.933*

(0.567)

0.1

1.673

(1.065)

0.116

0.470

(1.068)

0.66

ENPR for mayor ENPR for presidency

Peacemaking change

Colombia’s Contemporary State Building through democratization D3. La Constituyente (1982-2018) Trajectories of subnational state building

Contemporary state building through democratization

Implications

Contemporary state building implications 1. Process sequences of democratization: Liberalization, Decentralization and Peace-making shape different trajectories of subnational state building depending of which politically relevant actors are included or excluded, how the interaction of formal an informal institutions and actors of indirect rule are ultimately institutionalized across the territory

Contemporary state building implications 2. The national state building trajectory would be an average of the different trajectories of subnational state building depending on the level of subnational vis-Ă -vis the national institutionalization of the state ontological dimensions:

legitimacy

D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N

Colombia’s Contemporary Sequence of state building

Contemporary state building implications 3. The national state building trajectory would be an average of the different trajectories of subnational state building depending on the level of subnational vis-Ă -vis the national institutionalization of the state ontological dimensions:

coercion

D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N

Colombia’s Contemporary Sequence of state building

Contemporary state building implications 4. The national state building trajectory would be an average of the different trajectories of subnational state building depending on the level of subnational vis-Ă -vis the national institutionalization of the state ontological dimensions:

extraction

D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N

Colombia’s Contemporary Sequence of state building

Contemporary state building implications 5. The unfolding and settling of democratization institutions and organizations lead the settling of state organizations State organizations by democratization period Number of Ministries and national entities Most important national D administrative entities added E M in period O C R A T I Z A T I O N

% of public spending % customs/ tax collection % income/tax collection

National employees

1871 - 1930

1930 - 1957

1957 - 1980

1982-2018

8

15

26

50

Justice, Defense, Labor, Infrastructure Planning, Census, DIAN, Ministry of Government, Agriculture Aviation, Security commerce, industry Education, Central and Civil Service and tourism, TICs Bank, Army, National Intelligence Police, Agency, Comptroller, Victims Unit, JEP, Railroads Infrastructure Agency, Oil Agency, Environmental Ministry and Licensing Agency, Territorial Funds

10.5% - 1.3%

9.6% - 14.8%

15.7%

8%-19%

40% - 74%

13% - 28%

10% - 27%

25,4% - 2,8%

5%

10% - 20%

33%

39,2% - 47,1%

60.000

88.000 - 188.000

500.000

1.200.000

Contemporary state building implications 6.The larger de facto over de jure subnational institutionalization of state building, the larger the hybrid national institutionalization of state building

D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N

Colombia’s Contemporary Sequence of state building

Contemporary state building implications 6.The larger the hybrid institutionalization of state building the larger and persistent the social suffering

D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N

Colombia’s Contemporary Sequence of state building

Contemporary state building implications 7. Undertheorized and misleading indicators such as the ”weak states” or “failed states” do not help us understanding and coping with the complexities of contemporary state building

Contemporary state building implications 8. We are living through the reverse of the 3rd democratization wave and the emergence of the 4th democratization wave shaped by global warming, the 4th economic revolution, and contemporary state building legacies.

D4

D E M O C R A T I Z A T I O N

Global Contemporary Sequence of state building: 4th Democratization wave CHALLENGERS: transnational organized crime, rebels, populists CLEAVAGES: Under and over representation; social suffering: Informality, Inequality, corruption