CLH News #222 March 2019

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Property and Professional

ISSUE 222

CLHNews

MARCH 2019

Disorderly Brexit Could Cost Hospitality Sector £1.8 Billion A Year By 2024

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HOTELS, RESTAURANTS, PUBS & CATERING

A ‘disorderly Brexit’ could see the UK’s hospitality industry suffer a £1.8 billion reduction in economic output, compared to an ‘orderly Brexit’ – a new study has revealed. In a stark warning the study revealed that 60% of UK hospitality businesses highlighted that leaving the EU will negatively impact their ability to hire kitchen and restaurant workers, cleaning and housekeeping staff as well as maintenance workers, and whatever the Brexit scenario, hospitality businesses can expect to lose over a fifth of this current workforce The report, developed by workforce management company Quinyx in collaboration with Development Economics and Censuswide, includes economic analysis of ONS data and findings from an employer sentiment survey of 1,008 senior decision makers in UK firms that hire blue-collar workers. It highlights the impor-

tance of these workers to the UK economy, and the severe impact Brexit uncertainty will have on their jobs. As part of the research, Quinyx compared the predicted growth and economic output of the UK’s manual and elementary service workers in the hospitality sector under both a disorderly and an orderly Brexit scenario. The comparison found that the overall increase in economic output generated by the these hospitality workers would be over £3.4 billion per year by 2024 under an orderly Brexit, compared to over £1.6 billion per year under a disorderly Brexit – this equates to a 52% reduction or £1.8 billion loss each year. The decrease in economic output would come from a lack of access to hospitality sector workers in manual or elementary service roles – for example kitchen and

restaurant workers, cleaning and housekeeping staff or maintenance workers. This could come primarily as a result of uncertainty around, or lack of, immigration policies. The impact on businesses will vary across the UK. The research found that in the event of a disorderly Brexit, London, the East of England and the South East will see the greatest reductions in available workers and economic output. The research found that under any Brexit scenario employers in the UK’s hospitality sector expect to lose – on average – 23% of their blue-collar workforce as a result of the UK’s departure from the EU, with 11% saying they expect to lose 31% or more. Despite this, 25% of hospitality businesses have no plan for managing their future pipeline of these workers post-Brexit.

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