Project Overview
City of Miramichi Growth Plan
Introduction
• The City of Miramichi has retained Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. to prepare a Growth Plan to guide residential, employment, and infrastructure growth over a 25-year horizon.
• The plan will cover Miramichi’s urban communities and rural lands.
• The plan will provide analysis and evaluations to determine where and how the City of Miramichi will grow through the year 2051.
• Today’s open house introduces the broader study and presents findings from Phase 2.
City of Miramichi Growth Plan (Cont’d)
Why are we preparing a City Growth Plan?
• Establish a long-term vision of where and how population, housing, and employment growth shall occur in the City of Miramichi.
• Provide a clear direction for planning and policy development related to growth management, urban land needs, and long-range municipal service planning.
• Maximize the positive impacts of growth while strategically managing its implications on municipal systems and natural resources.
• Ensure financial, environmental, and socio-economic sustainability.
City of Miramichi Growth Plan (Cont’d)
Project Schedule
Phase 1 Phase 2
Phase 3 Phase 4
City of Miramichi Growth Plan (Cont’d)
Community Engagement
• The Growth Plan includes two rounds of community consultation
• The main objectives of community engagement are to:
• Inform – provide an objective so decision makers, staff, and the public are informed.
• Consult – obtain feedback and reflect on how feedback informs the analysis and recommendations.
• Involve – ensure perspectives are understood, considered, and incorporated into the analysis.
Opportunities and Challenges in Accommodating Growth
• Miramichi is anticipated to experience continued growth, building on recent development trends.
• Numerous economic benefits associated with population and employment growth related to economic expansion, community vibrancy, and an expanding assessment base
• With an aging population base, important to continue to promote growth in Miramichi through migration
• Growth can create challenges associated with infrastructure requirements, municipal service delivery, housing, urban land needs, and environmental protection.
City of Miramichi Growth Plan (Cont’d)
Considerations for Today’s Discussion
• What are the biggest opportunities for growth in Miramichi?
• What are the biggest challenges for accommodating growth in Miramichi?
• In planning for growth, what should the key priorities be for the City?
• Thinking about the City in the larger context of New Brunswick, what’s the role for Miramichi?
Miramichi Growth Trends
City of Miramichi
Population Growth Trends
• Miramichi has experienced a rebound in population growth since 2016.
• 2024 population is estimated to be 19,300, having increased 8.2% since 2016.
Total Population, 2001-2024
Source: 2001-2021 derived from Statistics Canada Census data, 2024 derived from Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0155-01, by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2025.
City of Miramichi (Cont’d)
Housing Development Trends
• Miramichi has experienced accelerated housing development activity over the past five years.
• A large share of recent development has been in the form of higher-density housing.
Residential Development Activity, 2015-2024
Residential Development Activity by Type, 2020-2024
Source: Derived from City of Miramichi building permit data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2025.
City of Miramichi
(Cont’d)
Economic and Employment Growth Trends
• Miramichi has a diverse employment base of approximately 12,500 jobs.
• Employment is concentrated in health care and social assistance, retail trade, public administration, educational services, and accommodation and food services.
Source: Derived from Statistics Canada 2021 Census data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2025.
Miramichi Employment by Sector
Growth Forecast Scenarios
Growth Forecasting Approach/Methodology
Technical Components and Considerations
• A growth forecast incorporates reasoned assumptions on:
• The impact of economic and job growth on future population and housing growth.
• Migration patterns (e.g., intraprovincial, international immigration policy).
• The changing age structure (i.e., working-age population, young people, empty nesters/seniors).
Regional and Local Growth Drivers
Agents of Change
• Macro-economic and demographic changes, and emerging industry sector and labour force trends influencing growth in Miramichi.
• Growing importance of Miramichi as a regional centre (health care, education, retail/services).
• Diversification of the economy.
• Aging population.
• Immigration policies.
Quality of Place Regional Economic Opportunities Natural Resources
Growth Drivers
Miramichi Population Forecast Scenarios
2006 to 2051
Note:
2026 to 2051 Average Annual Growth Rates
Miramichi Population Forecast by Age Group
Medium Growth Forecast, 2026 to 2051
Housing Forecast by Structure Type
Employment Forecast Scenarios
2026 to 2051
• Statistics Canada 2021 Census place of work employment data has been reviewed. The 2021 Census employment results have not been utilized due to a significant increase in work at home employment captured due to Census enumeration occurring during the provincial COVID-19 lockdown from April 1, 2021, to June 14, 2021.
• Employment figures include work at home and no fixed place of work. Figures have been rounded.
Employment Forecast by Sector
Medium Growth Forecast, 2026 to 2051
Note:
Source:
Next Steps
(Cont’d)
• Phase 2: Identify Preferred Growth Forecast to 2051.
• Phase 3: Growth Scenarios Development and Evaluation.
• Round Two of Public Open Houses in Winter 2026.
• Phase 4: Identification of Preferred Growth Scenario and Generalized Implementation Strategy
• Finalize Study in April 2026.
Questions?
