politics
electoral redistribution
THE proposed electoral redistribution should make the ACT Greens stop and think about their policies, says political commentator MICHAEL MOORE
Greens lose odds OVER the last five elections, since the introduction of the Hare-Clarke system, the Greens have had the advantage of a favourable seven-member electorate. Shifting the seven-member electorate from central (Molonglo) to north (Ginninderra) Canberra, as proposed for by Elections ACT, will mean an increased challenge for the party. The ACT Electoral Commission is an independent body charged with maintaining the electoral boundaries in a way that, as closely as possible, means that a vote in one electorate carries as much influence as a vote in any other electorate. It is uncanny how well they have achieved this as any examination of the electoral boundaries over the last five elections will indicate. However, there is another factor that they also attempt to manage – taking into account common interest. It is the common interest factor that provides an impetus for relocating the seven-member electorate from central to north Canberra. As Gungahlin has grown, there is clearly a much closer relationship on issues with the newer Belconnen than the traditional areas of north and south Canberra. The questions lie over the transition of the Greens’ strongholds of Lyneham, O’Connor and Turner. The impact of the proposed redistribution can be better understood by examining how people voted in the affected booths at the 2008 election. For Labor, the changes will have little consequence as across the Gungahlin booths and for those targeted in north Canberra, its vote remained remarkably consistent at around 40 per cent of the formal vote. The overview for the Canberra Liberals shows a Molonglo vote at just over 30 per cent and a Ginninderra vote of around 28 per cent. However, they had very strong support in Gungahlin, which will move across to the new seven-member electorate and is likely to con-
solidate their two current seats in that area and provide a reasonable chance for wrestling the third seat from the Greens. O’Connor, Turner and Lyneham were weak booths for them. The Greens were very strong performers in the three central Canberra seats with about 30 per cent of the vote. However, in some major booths in Gungahlin such as Palmerston, Ngunnawal and Amaroo they performed poorly by comparison, with their votes going to Labor and to the Australian Motorist Party. In the last election commuting from the Gungahlin, and the Gungahlin Drive Extension in particular, was a major issue that would have undermined the Greens’ vote. It does not have to do so at the coming election as the GDE will be duplicated before the poll and Chief Minister Katy Gallagher has now secured Commonwealth agreement for a Majura Lane parkway. The Greens policies can now come into play. They will need to continue to advocate strongly for a fast and effective public transport system and for the establishment of Commonwealth offices and other employment to be located in the Gungahlin town centre – but they will have to do so with much more panache. The difficulty for the Greens is they are often seen to focus on developing systems that effectively punish motorists rather than emphasising the parts of their policies that encourage multiple use of cars and fast, efficient public transport systems that link the town centres. Greens MLA Meredith Hunter has argued that growing support for her party will shield it from any adverse effects. However, it is important for the Greens to understand just where the support is coming from and which policies to emphasise if they are to maintain four seats in the Assembly. Michael Moore was an independent member of the ACT Legislative Assembly (1989 to 2001) and was minister for health.
Malcolm in the muddle Radio broadcaster and failed independent candidate MARK PARTON discovers he’s in with a chance at the next ACT election. Maybe, maybe not...
CityNews July 14-20
SO I’m on air the other day talking about the proposed changes to the electoral boundaries in the ACT; we’ve taken some callers and I’m discussing it with veteran political commentator Malcolm Mackerras. He’s all for the changes. Malcolm tells me that the new boundaries would force a change to the make up of the Assembly and that the Greens’ influence would lessen. He tells me that after 2012. the Assembly will be seven Labor, six Liberal, three greens and an independent… and he goes on to explain to me on my own radio program that the independent would be me! I did point out to Malcolm that this theory was based on the premise of my running as a candidate in 2012 and Malcolm just gave me a wink. It was a phone interview, but I could still see him winking. I don’t always agree with Malcolm, but I think he’s right in supporting the redistribution. It’s always seemed crazy to me that Molonglo straddles the lake in a way which sees the seat stretch from just north of Kambah right up to Amaroo. Under the proposed changes, Ginninderra would include Belconnen and Gungahlin and
Lyneham, O’Connor and Turner. The rest of the inner-north would stay with Molonglo. Ginninderra would become the “people-mover”, the seven-seater and Molonglo would be reduced to a “sedan”, a five-seater. The ABC’s Antony Green agrees that this would potentially remove one Green from Assembly. I don’t think ACT Labor will be displeased about the potential redistribution. Under the old scenario, Labor would have had some problems filling the electoral vacuum caused by the departure of Jon Stanhope. The former chief minister didn’t just have supporters in Ginninderra, he had worshippers and the Labor section of the ballot paper was set to look a little empty without his name on it. Chief Minister Katy Gallagher suggested to me last week she would, under the proposed new scenario, stand in Ginninderra simply because she would be residing in the seat. When is that election again? October next year and I am very happy doing what I’m doing right now. Mark Parton is the breakfast announcer on 2CC