Monday 27 March 2023

DEEP BREATH THE HAVEN THAT AIMS TO MAKE YOU A DECA-BILLIONAIRE P16

UK ECONOMY NOT OUT THE WOODS YET

RECESSION FEARS PERSIST AS RATES WEIGH ON SPENDING

A RECESSION is still on the cards in the UK despite the economy performing much better than experts were warning just a few months ago, new forecasts out today project.

Higher interest rates and households responding to the cost of living crunch gripping their finances by trimming spending is tipped to push GDP 0.3 per cent lower this year, according to consultancy KPMG.

Families are being crushed by the worst inflation surge in four decades and the Bank of England jacking up borrowing costs to tame it.

Bank governor Andrew Bailey and his team of economists bumped rates up for the eleventh time in a row last week to 4.25 per cent, a post-financial crisis high, as he stepped up the central bank’s fight against inflation, which hopped surprisingly to 10.4 per cent last month.

KPMG reckons the Bank will keep

TWO FROM TWO ENGLAND BEAT UKRAINE ON ROAD TO EUROS P18

BREAKING DOWN BARRIERS City marks 50th anniversary of first women on the floor of the London Stock Exchange

rates at that level for the whole of this year, weighing on household and business spending.

As a result, “although the likelihood of a UK recession has fallen, it has not dissipated entirely,” the firm said in its latest set of UK and global economic forecasts.

A batch of economists have junked their recession warnings recently in response to firms and families holding up better than feared under the cost of living crisis.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), Britain’s official forecaster, at Jeremy Hunt’s first budget earlier this month raised its GDP forecasts for this year on the basis that households will raid their savings to maintain spending.

Bank of England officials also scrapped their recession warning at last week’s rate decision. Back in November, they projected the UK was on course for the longest recession in a century.

Despite the rosier outlook, OBR chief Richard Hughes warned yesterday on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme that families in the UK are grappling with the biggest hit to their living standards since records began. KPMG boffins also said a slowdown in the housing market caused by higher mortgage rates freezing potential buyers out of a home purchase and weaker business investment will clamp down on economic growth.

The UK is tipped to be the only G7 country to undergo an economic contraction this year. Growth is also poised to flatline next year, with GDP only bumping 0.6 per cent higher.

Separate numbers out today from consultancy PwC reveal UK household debt has topped £2 trillion for the first time on record, with risky borrowing up just over seven per cent over the last year, illustrating families are turning to borrowing to fund spending amid the cost of living crisis.

FIFTY years since the first women traders were admitted into the historic marketplace, two “trading floor trailblazers” will today open the London Stock Exchange.

Susan Shaw and Hilary Pearson, who in 1973 were among the first female stockbrokers in the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), will open the day’s trading alongside Labour MP Anneliese Dodds.

“We owe those trailblazers a huge debt: they imagined a world where women could become members of the Stock Exchange and then stuck it out to both make it happen and just as importantly, make it stick,” LSEG chief executive Julia Hoggett said. Dodds, however, will urge the City not to stop pushing on gender equality, with fresh Labour analysis of ONS figures showing it will take 18 years at the current rate to close the gender pay gap in financial services.

Four day week? Bosses are open to the idea –but you better be in on a Monday

JAMES SILVER

EMPLOYERS are more open to the idea of a shorter working week than many think –but you can forget about working from home if you want Friday off.

That’s the conclusion of a survey of more than 10,000 employees and

bosses released today by recruitment firm Hays.

A third of employers are more likely to consider cramming a week’s work into four days if staff came back to the office to kick off the week.

The number of commuters on a Monday continues to lag that seen

on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, with the term ‘twats’ now a firm part of City lexicon.

Bosses are increasingly chafing at staff working from home at the start of the week.

Last week, the Lloyd’s of London boss John Neal said there will be times when staff “have to be in

every day of the week” and has said the Square Mile needs to “get Monday back”.

A recent trial of a four-day week at a host of companies saw a third of them make the change permanent, without making changes to salary and conditions. The survey suggested almost two-thirds of

workers would like to switch to a four-day week.

Gaelle Blake of Hays UK and Ireland said the research pointed to the “importance of flexibility as professionals would be willing to travel into an office more often if there was better flexibility from employers on their working days”.

JESSICA FRANK-KEYES

JACK BARNETT

STANDING UP FOR THE CITY

LSE landmark a reminder that we must not become complacent

FIFTY years, then, since the first woman walked onto the floor of the London Stock Exchange. The boss of the LSE is now, of course, a woman. So job done? Not by a long stretch.

For all the advances over the past five decades, there is still much work to do to ensure a genuinely equitable Square Mile.

Mercifully, the outright sexism that accompanied the arrival of

THE CITY VIEW

women on the floor of the London Stock Exchange has mostly dissipated, but the systemic issues remain. While the easiest way to judge the ascent of women in the City is by counting the number of FTSE CEOs or board members,

that is often backward looking. The latter in particular can reward tokenism. Gender pay gap stats can too be misleading, and skewed in the City by Csuite salaries.

No, the challenge across the piece is the executive pipeline –and ensuring people don’t fall off it. That’s particularly true for women, whether we like it or not, for they remain more likely to take extended time off when children make an

appearance. Shared parental leave has made a useful dent in that disparity, but more needs to be done by corporates to encourage people to actually take it. Similarly, government could do a better job of reforming childcare, with the latest initiatives very much tackling the symptom (high prices) rather than the cause (a busted market).

The fact the new childcare

WHEELIN’ AND DEALIN’ A rather grey London weekend was broken up yesterday by this colourful troop, as mods and scooters gathered outside the iconic Royal Albert Hall

provision now actively encourages high-flyers earning north of £100,000 to go down to four days a week is particularly dim.

Above all, though, the answer is fairly clear. Hire more women, and support them through their career. It’s not rocket science. And, in a time when business more than ever needs a wider pool of brains from which to draw, it’s smart business sense too.

WHAT THE OTHER PAPERS SAY THIS MORNING

THE GUARDIAN

ELON MUSK MEMO SUGGESTS

TWITTER WORTH LESS THAN HALF WHAT HE PAID FOR IT Twitter is worth less than half of what Elon Musk paid for it six months ago having lost more than $20bn (£16.4bn) in value, according to calculations based on a leaked memo from the billionaire.

THE FINANCIAL TIMES MONEY MARKET FUNDS JUMP $286BN AS DEPOSITS PULLED FROM BANKS

Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Fidelity are among the biggest winners from investors pouring cash into US money market funds over the past two weeks, as concerns rise over the safety of bank deposits after a week of market turmoil.

THE TELEGRAPH

RAW SEWAGE DUMPED INTO WATERWAYS 800 TIMES A DAY

Raw sewage was dumped into rivers and coastal areas from England more than 300,000 times last year despite a fall in the overall number, official data due to be published on Friday by the Environmental Agency is expected to show.

Home REIT tenant gave £1.2m to bosses before bankruptcy

CHARLIE CONCHIE

THE THREE bosses of Home REIT’s nowbankrupt biggest tenant pocketed over £1.2m last year as the firm struggled to pay rent and slumped into a multi-million pound loss, City A.M. can reveal.

Gurpaal Judge, the chief of Wolverhampton-based social housing provider Lotus Housing, hiked his own and two directors’ pay to a total of £1.2m in 2022 –up from a total of just £9,250 in 2020 –despite the fact that the firm’s losses grew to around £4.75m by October last year, an insolvency report on the firm obtained by City A.M. reveals. Judge did not challenge the payout

figures when approached by City A.M.

The bumper pay packets came as the community interest company ramped up its expansion plans but struggled to secure exempt housing status for its properties, which would have entitled its residents to taxpayer-backed rental support.

Lotus reported an annual profit of £225,893 in March last year but swung to the £4.75m loss just seven months later as it failed to pay its landlords and win financial support from local authorities.

Lotus was Home REIT’s biggest single tenant and made up some 12.2 per cent of its total rental income, operating 939

beds for the firm before it collapsed earlier this month.

The insolvency report, written by Begbies Traynor, raises fresh questions about Home REIT’s vetting procedures of its tenants and whether inexperienced tenants were mismanaging their finances.

Lotus began to run into trouble after local authorities failed to approve its ex-

empt housing applications.

“Lotus was not rejected for exempt status, but unfortunately faced significant delays in achieving exempt status leading to an accrual of £4.1m in unpaid housing benefit, that would have been paid once Lotus was accepted.

“Lotus had 1,600 vulnerable homeless people on a waiting list for

housing, who unfortunately will not be housed due to the significant delays from the councils,” Judge told City A.M. Home REIT has previously said its rental take was ultimately backstopped by the taxpayer, although City A.M. revealed in December that the firm kept no track of how much of its rent was actually paid via exempt housing benefits. Home REIT did not respond to requests for comment.

The news comes after City A.M. revealed many tenants had stopped paying rent to Home REIT in protest at the poor quality housing it provided, with the firm later admitting it would need to spend £15m-£20m on improvements.

How we reported on the scandal last month

Deutsche looks for bump after torrid Friday

JAMES SILVER

DEUTSCHE Bank is hoping to put a Friday sell-off behind it today, with analysts and politicians both giving it support over the weekend.

The German giant tumbled by as much as 14 per cent on Friday before paring losses, with a jittery market responding badly to news that its credit default swaps –effectively the price paid by other firms to insure against a Deutsche collapse –had shot up. The market in bank stocks has been volatile since the out-of-nowhere collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US and then the sudden fall of Credit Suisse last weekend. Many are fearful that the speed with which interest rates have been hiked across the world could leave other banks exposed. However, analysts have been at pain to note that Deutsche, which boasts high levels of liquidity and capital, is

not set to be the next Credit Suisse.

JP Morgan analysts said “we are not concerned” and confirmed that Deutsche was “solid”, unlike its faded Swiss rival.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also came to Deutsche’s aid, saying “it’s a very profitable bank”.

“There’s no reason to worry,” he continued, and went on to say that the European banking system remains “stable”.

However, that may not be enough to quell investor worries.

“The market is very nervous at this point and investors are acting first and looking into the nuances later,” said Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at fund giant Blackrock, in an interview with Reuters.

“It’s understandable because it’s not super clear that this is definitely contained,” he added, referring to the interest rates challenge.

IF YOU HAVE TO SAY IT...

Deutsche Bank is not Credit Suisse, and it’s in decent shape. But the fact that the German Chancellor felt the need to reassure everybody of that fact points to just how antsy investors remain after the collapse of banks on both sides of the Atlantic. Scholz’s comments weren’t far off that of the Bank of England over the past fortnight, with the oft-repeated statement that the UK banking

IMF warns global financial stability at risk

CITY A.M. REPORTER

THE HEAD of the International Monetary Fund yesterday warned global financial stability was at risk following the recent banking chaos. Speaking at a conference in Bejing, Kristalina Georgieva said uncertainties in the global economy remained “exceptionally high” as global growth slows, the Ukraine war drags on and the world’s most important central banks hike interest rates.

sector is “safe and sound”.

Nonetheless, investors have ditched bank stocks –Barclays is down just shy of 15 per cent on the year. That’s come despite the fact that it does appear as if the post2008 guardrails put in place by regulators do broadly appear to be working.

So are we in a banking crisis? Not really, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see one. As many have said, it’s only when people stop asking who’s next that we can relax. AS

“The rapid transition from a prolonged period of low interest rates to much higher rates, necessary to fight inflation, inevitably generates stresses and vulnerabilities, as we have seen in recent developments in the banking sector,” Georgieva said, according to a Financial Times report.

The financial system was sent into a frenzy this month after Silicon Valley Bank collapsed and Credit Suisse was rescued by rival UBS. Georgieva said while policymakers’ “actions have eased market stresses to some extent... uncertainty is high and that underscores the need for vigilance”.

Vistry execs head for the exit after row over bumper pay pitch for CEO

NOAH EASTWOOD

TWO non-executive directors at FTSE 250 housebuilder Vistry are reportedly set to quit following a row over a potentially huge new pay deal for the firm’s chief executive. According to a report in The Sunday Times, a group of US investors proposed a mammoth pay packet for chief executive Greg

Fitzgerald, which would have pegged the CEO’s bonuses to the company’s share price.

Under the proposal, if Fitzgerald achieved a share price rise from £7.26, where it was on Friday, to £18 within the next three years, he would be in line for £60m.

The proposal was rejected by the board, but US investors Inclusive Capital and Browning West are

DEAL OR NO DEAL? Issa bros close to £12bn merger of Asda and EG petrol forecourts

“adamant” that the proposals will get results, The Sunday Times reported. The activist pressure has reportedly led to the chair of the board’s remuneration committee, Nigel Keen, and another non-executive director, Katherine Innes-Ker, to head for the exit in protest. Vistry declined to comment while Keen and Innes-Ker didn’t immediately respond.

HSBC tables Asia breakup vote in bow to pressure

JACK

BARNETT

BRITAIN’s largest bank HSBC has bowed to pressure from a group of shareholders in Hong Kong and will table a vote on a proposal to revamp the business, including carving out its Asia arm.

First reported by The Sunday Times, the lender revealed the vote on Friday in an update to investors.

The poll was requested by Ken Lui, a shareholder who spearheads the group calling to spin-off its Asian business.

HSBC has also approved a vote on whether it should re-up its dividend to pre-Covid levels of no less than $0.51, paid every quarter.

The bank has told shareholders to throw out both proposals.

“The board recommends all shareholders vote against these two resolutions because they are not in the best interest of the company or its shareholders,” a spokesperson for the bank told City A.M.

“We remain clear that our current strategy is the fastest, safest and most value enhancing way to deliver returns. It is al-

ready delivering attractive and sustainable returns and dividends for shareholders, as was evident from our recent 2022 annual results announcement,” they added.

HSBC has been under pressure from shareholders in Hong Kong and its largest investor, Chinese insurer Ping An, to break off the Asian arm – which generates most of its profit – to ensure it is not dragged down by comparatively underperforming separate parts of the sprawling bank.

The calls gathered momentum after British regulators prevented banks from handing out dividends during the pandemic to ensure money was retained in the banking system to cushion the economic crisis caused by the virus.

That decision starved Asian shareholders of dividends, provoking a backlash from retail investors in Hong Kong.

HSBC recently conducted a review of whether selling off its Asia arm would be effective and, somewhat unsurprisingly, concluded the move would damage the bank’s international business model.

Britain lacks manpower to build 300,000 homes a year by 2025

ALAN JONES

BRITAIN does not have the workforce to meet the government’s target of building 300,000 homes a year by 2025, a new report has warned.

Make UK said almost a million new workers would be needed by 2030 to help meet the demand for housing, replace those who will retire in the coming years and help retrofit homes to meet net-zero targets.

Make UK said only 11,000 construction

apprentices finished courses last year, and most did not start a job in the housebuilding industry.

The sector needs to recruit 137,000 more workers just to hit the new homes target by 2030, the group added.

Its report said expanding modular home production could be a solution Steve Cole of Make UK said: “To address the issue of labour shortages, which is now at critical point, government must help modular to grow at speed.”

THE OWNERS of Asda are rushing to finalise a £12bn deal to merge the supermarket chain with their fleet of UK petrol stations, which is expected to be completed by April, The Sunday Times reported. Brothers Mohsin and Zuber Issa, who acquired the retailer in 2021, aim to slash forecourt debt with the venture.

Next set to unveil sales bump amid spending crunch

HENRY SAKER-CLARK

NEXT is set to unveil higher sales and profits as the high street giant hopes to shrug off concerns over consumer spending.

The retailer is among high street brands seeking to grow amid a challenging backdrop of continued cost inflation and under-pressure shoppers who have seen household bills soar.

Next will reveal on Wednesday how it performed over the year to January.

Investors are expecting the company to reveal that sales grew by around 6.9 per cent to £4.6bn over the year.

It is also predicted to show that pre-tax profits rose 4.5 per cent to £860m, having increased its projection from £840m set in November.

Investors and analysts will be keen to hear how trading has performed during the start of the new financial year as the cost of living crisis continues to bite.

In January, chief executive Lord Simon Wolfson said prices were set to peak at about eight per cent in the spring but will ease back afterwards to “no more than” six per cent in the second half.

Shareholders will be hoping higher

Beer tap spat: Wetherspoons and AB Inbev embroiled in legal battle

LUKE THOMAS

WETHERSPOONS and its main beer supplier AB InBev, the world’s largest brewer, are embroiled in a bitter legal dispute threatening taps across 850 of its UK pubs.

20-year deal to replace Heineken as Wetherspoons’ primary beer supplier.

branded taps.

pricing has not impacted demand from shoppers in recent weeks.

Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “While these numbers are commendable, given the challenging environment for retailers, it’s important not to lose sight of the challenges ahead.

“With the group set to pass on six to eight per cent cost inflation, there is a question mark over whether consumers can stomach these hikes.”

In the previous update, Next appeared more cautious over the current financial year.

The disagreement stems from a contract signed in November 2021, when ABI’s UK subsidiary, Budweiser Brewing Group, agreed a

The deal would see ABI brands such as Budweiser, Stella Artois, Corona and Leffe Blonde become staple draughts at Wetherspoons pubs, with an agreed number sitting on the prominent ‘T-bar’ taps on all bars. However, a dispute has arisen over which company is liable for the installation costs of the new ABI-

Wetherspoons founder and chairman Tim Martin told City A.M. in a statement that it values its commercial relationship with Budweiser but they “have been unable to resolve this dispute” and “regrettably had no choice but to commence court proceedings”. ABI did not respond to a request for comment.

Bosses steered guidance towards a potential eight per cent drop in profits to £795m, due to cost increases of over £100m relating to wages and utility bills.

Easing wholesale energy prices could help support profitability but the overall performance will still be largely driven by how strong demand from shoppers is over the year.

Lord Wolfson will be keen to reassure investors that sales have been robust so far.

‘Tragedy’ if John Lewis ownership changes, says ex-boss Andy Street

TED HENNESSEY AND DAVID LYNCH

JOHN LEWIS changing its ownership model would be “a tragedy”, a former top boss has said.

Reports last week suggested the retailer is considering ending its fully staff-owned structure, with John Lewis chairwoman Sharon White exploring plans to sell a minority stake.

West Midlands mayor Andy Street, John Lewis’ managing director until 2016, acknowledged the firm’s financial

difficulties but urged its leaders to think about what makes it “special”.

He told the BBC: “It would be a tragedy if that occurred because I think John Lewis goes a bit beyond a shop.

“So I would urge the leadership of John Lewis to think about what’s really at the heart of it, what makes it special, and hold on to that.”

It came as Labour MP Gareth Thomas said John Lewis could be helped to remain staff-owned by a proposed law to be tabled in Parliament this week.

Former John Lewis boss Andy Street said the retailer needed to protect what made it special

The high street stalwart is expected to unveil pretax profits of £860m

SQUARE MILE SHOPPING

He said a key problem is the Square Mile is not “largely recognisable” as a specific shopping area, and retailers will be acutely aware of this when it comes to picking new store locations.

“Making a five or ten year commitment now to a space in any location when the future of work is completely up in the air, particularly within the City, feels high risk to retailers at the moment,” he said.

AS OXFORDStreet struggles to fill vacant spaces on its high street, many in the retail sector are also questioning what the future holds for the Square Mile’s shopping scene.

At One New Change, the City’s prime shopping centre, which was launched in 2010 to rival London’s West End, there are about 10 vacant lots, and footfall in the area during the week appears to be low.

As a move towards hybrid working has driven workers out of London’s financial centre, retail experts have weighed in on what the City’s retail hotspots should do to adapt to this new normal.

“The world was a completely different place a decade ago, when probably a shopping centre [in the City] felt like a brilliant idea,” John Hoyle, founder of pop up retail provider Sook, told City A.M.

Hannah McNamara, co-founder of commercial estate agent P-Three, agreed that times have changed, and said that what the City’s workers want has changed too. “Without doubt, in a post-Covid world we are looking at a core three-day week in offices for many workers, meaning consumer demands are changing.”

McNamara said it’s now all about quality.

Office workers “want better quality services and experiences”, she said, and places like One New Change will need to think accordingly. “Adding high quality gyms, fitness studios, as well as premium bars and restaurants to entice workers back to the shopping hubs... and the office” will be vital to reviving the sector, she added.

Just as the City has embraced new norms of working, it is thus clear its retail counterparts must also adapt to the new status quo, with creativity and flexibility vital.

Laura McGuire asks how the Square Mile’s retail sector can regain its former luster

One New Change, once a bustling City spot, now finds itself with 10 vacant lots as it suffers from the rise of hybrid working

Heathrow takes top billing after rates calculation

JAMES SILVER

THE FORTHCOMING uprating of business rates is set to give the Treasury an extra £1.4bn in tax revenues –with airports and power stations set to be hit by the biggest jump.

The revaluation, coming into effect on 1 April, comes despite calls from a host of business groups to overhaul the rates regime.

The Chancellor announced a host of sweeteners in last month’s budget, including a freeze on tax rates and discounts for hospitality firms, but stopped short of total reform.

The UK’s biggest business rates payer will once again be Heathrow, according to the research by Altus Group, though its revaluation has actually seen its overall value fall to £210m. Gatwick and Stansted are also set for a significant bill, with their ‘rateable value’ going up.

Though the Treasury’s take is smaller than it was pre-pandemic, numbercrunchers believe that will change next year.

“The return to inflationary increases in the tax rates, and the ending of the temporary enhanced retail discount in April 2024, will see revenue rise by a further £5.2bn during 2024/25 to its highest ever level,” Alex Probyn, global president of property tax at Altus Group, said yesterday.

Small business bodies have warned that the revaluation comes alongside the end of the energy bill relief scheme, a subsidy, which is set to see the cost of putting the lights on soar.

The Federation of Small Businesses said last week that around a quarter of firms which locked themselves into energy contracts last year will need to rethink their business model, downsize or close and urged the government to rethink the “tipping point”.

MPs should ‘put public service first’ after second jobs sting, Gove says

LEVELLING-UP secretary Michael Gove yesterday said MPs must “put public service first” after undercover reporting revealed a handful of MPs were willing to provide advice to a foreign company in return for sizeable fees.

Politicians Matt Hancock and Kwasi Kwarteng were left red-faced

after anti-Brexit campaign group Led By Donkeys released footage of them saying they would be willing to work for a handful of days a year for a fake Korean company if they were offered, in some cases, as much as £10,000 a month.

Kwarteng said that, as an MP, he “didn’t need to earn a king’s ransom” but wouldn’t “do anything less than £10,000 a month”, while Hancock said

his hourly rate was “around £1,500”.

Gove told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge on Sunday that while the employment offered was “within the rules”, MPs’ “first duty” was to their constituents and it was important that “every MP operates in a way that is transparent”.

A spokesperson for Hancock said “Matt acted within the letter and the spirit of the rules”. Kwarteng did not respond to a request for comment.

Tiktok banned in City Hall despite Khan’s 47k fans

TIKTOK has been banned on London City Hall devices amid ongoing security concerns.

Staff will no longer be allowed to have the video sharing app on their official devices as part of the latest ban to hit the Chinese-owned firm over data privacy fears.

Greater London Authority officials said the rule was implemented as the organisation takes information security “extremely seriously”.

The ban comes despite mayor Sadiq Khan’s Tiktok account having nearly 47,000 followers and a verified ‘blue tick’ badge of authenticity. Khan has shared videos on St Patrick’s Day celebrations, International Women’s Day, TfL upgrades, debt advice and mental health, earning him over 346,000 likes on the app.

The mayor’s office, however, did not immediately respond when asked by City A.M. whether Khan and his staff would continue to use the Tiktok account.

The move comes after the UK government

banned ministers from using the videosharing app on their work phones following a security review.

The Scottish Government is also imposing a ban on official devices over concerns “on the potential tracking and privacy risks from certain social media apps”.

Politicians – including Matt Hancock, Grant Shapps and Labour’s Zarah Sultana – have embraced Tiktok as a way to connect with younger voters.

While Beijing’s intelligence laws require firms to help the Communist Party when requested, Tiktok, which is owned by Chinese internet company Bytedance, has argued it does not share data with China.

A Tiktok spokesperson told City A.M. said the bans are “based on fundamental misconceptions and driven by wider geopolitics”. “We are readily available to meet with the mayor to address any concerns but we should be judged on facts and treated equally to our competitors.”

It is unclear how the ban will affect Khan’s own account

Russian artist to project human blood sculpture onto St Paul’s

A RUSSIAN artist says he will project a sculpture filled with human blood onto the facade of St Paul’s to protest Prince Harry’s comments about killing Afghan soldiers “like chess pieces”.

It comes after the Duke of Sussex claimed in his controversial memoir ‘Spare’ earlier this year that he killed 25 fighters while serving in Afghanistan.

Named Royal Blood, the installation is set to appear in the coming days, Molodkin, a former Russian soldier, says, alongside a video of Prince Harry. “Afghan people believe they are not chess pieces, they are humans. They have donated this blood to me to make the projections of this onto St Pauls,” Molodkin told City A.M.

A spokesperson for St Paul’s said they had not been contacted by the artist.

JESSICA FRANK-KEYES

JESSICA FRANK-KEYES

JESSICA FRANK-KEYES

NEITHER Ash Regan (L) Humza Yousaf (C) or Kate Forbes (R) have a net positive rating among the Scottish public, according to Ipsos, as the SNP prepares to announce Nicola Sturgeon’s successor today. Forbes, with a net favourability of -8, came out best in the poll.

SNP VOTE All SNP leadership hopefuls have net negative ratings ahead of today’s results

THE NOTE BOOK

High time to deliver a solution to Royal Mail postman spat

ANOTHER day, another indication that Royal Mail’s future has got lost in the post. Only a fortnight after being referred to the regulator for “systemic letter delivery failures” –a task you’d probably describe as a core competence for a letter delivery company –it was forced to admit to another load of postal delays across the home counties this week. Add to that the chuntering from union boss Dave Ward at the CWU and probable further strike action and it’s hard to see quite where the embattled firm goes from here.

Simon Thompson, Chief Postie, is facing as uncertain a future as his company. The boss was singled out by a Commons report earlier this month for “either an unacceptable level of incompetence or an unacceptable level of cluelessness”, neither of which will look too good on the CV, as well as suffering the ignominy of having to come back to parliament for a second time after appearing to mislead MPs

SUCCEEDING ONCE MORE

over performance tracking software. If that’s embarrassing, then parent company International Distributions Services’ near-60 per cent share price tumble over the past five years is downright depressing.

Yet despite all that there are some reasons to be cheerful –and to Thompson’s credit, he seems to have clocked it. The firm’s international parcel delivery firm GLS is profitable, clinging on to the coattails of the online commerce boom. There have been rumblings from Thompson and his chairman, Keith Williams, that a split is on the table –with the parcel business spun out of the lossmaking, antiquated Royal Mail bit of the business.

Whether Thompson is the right man to lead such a split is open to question. His relationship with the union has completely broken down, with an accord realistically the only way to turn Royal Mail around. Investors may soon have as little sympathy as MPs.

The return of Succession to our TV screens will delight many in the City, who fresh from a day of office politics at work will turn on the telly to watch more of it on the small screen. The real joy of the show for those of us in the Square Mile though is not necessarily the dialogue or the masterful acting, but the vision of a corporate world almost entirely devoid of modern HR practices, for better and worse.

£ The ongoing shenanigans in the banking industry have left many predicting that we’re on the brink of another 2008. It’s hard to agree; the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse were more about the companies themselves than anything more systemic. But if we’re not in a global banking crisis, then the Swiss are certainly having an existential one. UBS is lucky to have a man like Colm Kelleher at the top, whilst the Swiss regulators and politicians pontificate in public.

£ The open letter written by ‘high street guru’ Mary Portas to John Lewis’ leadership may have caused a stir, but it felt more than a little overwrought. Yes, John Lewis is part of the fabric of British life –but so are lots of things, and having a couple of Christmas ads go viral doesn’t mean a business has any God-given right to exist. The brand is in a right state, and boss Dame Sharon White needs to demonstrate some signs of progress - but if it doesn’t work, it’s just a struggling business, not the end of an era.

A MOST WORTHY CHARITY EFFORT

CAN I QUOTE YOU ON THAT?

The plugs don’t work

A weekend trip up north was going almost unbelievably well –until Avanti kiboshed plans to work on the train with broken sockets. Britain’s creaking infrastructure is so tiring.

They say never meet your heroes, but I had the pleasure of spending the afternoon with a scrum of rugby legends last week at the annual lunch for Lawrence Dallaglio’s RugbyWorks charity. The organisation works with children who’ve been expelled or excluded from education to give them values of teamwork, respect and discipline, using the game as a way to instill the life skills needed for whatever may come next in education or employment. Rugby is in need of good PR at the minute –on everything from governance to rule changes it’s got itself into a right pickle. RugbyWorks is a reminder that the sport still has something unique, and very special, about it. As for the lunch, I think it’s safe to say Boisdale in Canary Wharf will need to restock its Guinness supplies.

This week, City A.M. editor Andy Silvester shares his musings on the last week of Square Mile shenanigans

City A.M.’s energy editor Nicholas Earl delves into the sector’s challenges in his weekly column

HOW THE CHANCELLOR CAN DELIVER A GREEN DAY

AGREENenergy arms race has begun, and the UK is at risk of lagging behind its rivals – a clear crisis when the country’s energy security and climate goals are at stake.

The government is now set to unveil ‘Green Day’ later this week in response to the US Inflation Reduction Act, with President Joe Biden in September pledging a vast subsidy package of $368bn (£301bn) for low and zero carbon energy projects. The EU has come up with a significant, if less hefty, package too. Unsurprisingly, multiple UK firms have warned they will have to reconsider domestic plans and look for opportunities overseas if the investment climate is not matched in this country.

The Chancellor has said the UK can’t match the US pound-for-dollar with new subsidies, but that there would be a strong response –but the details are sketchy four days out from an expected announcement.

So what would a plan look like? City A.M. has made its own six-point plan to keep the UK on a strong footing with its rivals and ensure a strong investment climate for its clean energy goals.

1) FAIL TO FIX PLANNING, PLAN TO FAIL

Time is of the essence for reaching the UK’s energy ambitions, and onshore wind can be set up cheaply, quickly and with minimal logistical challenges – if the government is bold enough to engage in serious planning reform and lift projects out of a de-facto moratorium. Intransigent localism has caused regional MPs to lose their mettle, but the government is hoping to reform the UK’s planning framework. Industry body Renewable UK warns that current proposals are little more than tinkering around the edges, and that it is time the government brought new wind turbine developments in line with other infrastructure projects. We agree.

2) MAKE THE GRID COMPETITIVE

Octopus boss Greg Jackson has consistently highlighted that National Grid has been a persistent obstacle to the green dreams of energy developers. While it can take less than a year to do the engineering work for a wind farm, it can then take six or seven years to get permission to connect to the grid – which has received a huge

increase in connection requests amid the surging interest in electrification and renewable projects. It is time to consider contestable grids where connections do not have to be overseen by a central body and can instead be fielded out by regulated contractors.

3) SCRAP THE RENEWABLE LEVY

The Electricity Generator Levy – an effective windfall tax on green energy projects – is politics rather than policy, seemingly made in an attempt for fairness after the crackdown on North Sea oil and gas. The £14bn estimate for revenues raised over the next five years is optimistic at best. It is time

to restore investment confidence in the sector with a contracts for difference (CfD) style arrangement with legacy operators –to reassure companies retrospective taxes made on investments will not be utilised by the government again. CfDs are one of the UK’s true success stories, delivering low carbon deployment at low cost to consumers. This means when wholesale electricity prices are higher than the price agreed in the CfD, generators pay back the difference.

4) GO NUCLEAR, BUT SMALL

As much as idealists pretend otherwise, the UK needs to establish a low-carbon baseload of energy. Wind and solar are intermittent, and green hydrogen remains a gamble with its high production costs. Nuclear is the clear answer here in the pivot away from gas but with EDF’s hulking projects draining the taxpayer dry it is time for a nimbler response. If the government is to allocate further taxpayer funding, it should really be towards small, modular reactors, which can be built at scale with extensive production lines.

5) BACK THE FUTURE ENERGY PIONEERS

The UK has been a leader in exciting technologies and developments over recent years such as clean energy storage, semiconductors and carbon capture. However, it has persistently struggled to shepherd such technologies from early stages to mass production. Grants and a low-tax environment are essential for boosting future winners that could reap dividends for the UK’s green industry.

6) TREAT FRACKING FAIRLY

No one likes to admit it, but we need gas. We will need gas for decades to come. As it stands, our policies towards fossil fuels are utterly incoherent. The UK is happy to ship in carbon-intensive LNG imports – typically made from US fracked gas – which are unlikely to be eligible for blue hydrogen conversion. Yet, the solution for lowercarbon, domestic gas resources could be under our feet. The fracking industry has not asked for public funds, and there is no harm in allowing them to do testing at designated sites to assess the UK’s potential supplies.

New fund aims to double down on UK university research spin-outs

CHRISTOPHER DORRELL

MILLTRUST International is set to launch a new $150m (£122.6m) fund focusing on ‘Sustainable Prosperity’ as it seeks to scale up health, food and sustainability companies in the UK and around the world.

The British Innovation Fund II will target “high-impact, early stage

companies” with links to the UK’s university sector.

The fund will follow on from Milltrust’s first British Innovation Fund, which also invested in the spin-out companies from the university sector.

The new fund, however, will “go further in actively supporting promising start-ups with cutting-edge

IP capable of disrupting a range of industries”, with a focus on global food systems and health.

Milltrust CEO Simon Hopkins said the fund “represents a significant step forward in our strategy to foster Sustainable Prosperity across the globe, recognising the outsized positive impact that rapidly-growing, IP-rich companies can have”.

A green energy arms race has begun and the UK is set to fire

The new fund will focus on global food systems and health

CITY DASHBOARD YOUR

CALM AFTER THE STORM “A relatively quieter week is in store compared to last week’s onslaught of data. BoE numbers on Wednesday will be the most interesting drop. Expect to see credit card borrowing creeping up as consumers take on debt to fund spending.”

JACK BARNETT, ECONOMICS EDITOR

LONDON REPORT

2022 GDP figures set to show UK dodged recession last year

BRITAIN is poised to have officially swerved a recession last year, the country’s statistics agency is expected to confirm this week.

New final numbers outlining economic growth in the final three months of 2022 are likely to hold steady at zero per cent, meaning the UK narrowly dodged the official recession definition of two consecutive quarters of contraction.

The economy slipped 0.2 per cent in the three months to September, while monthly GDP for December was deeply negative at minus 0.5 per cent.

“Having confounded the doomsters, this week’s final fourth quarter GDP numbers are expected to show that the UK economy avoided a technical recession,” Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said.

Experts have also ditched their recession projections for this year, mainly due to households holding up better amid the worst cost of living crunch in a generation.

Last week, the Bank of England said it now reckons the country will avoid a long economic slump. In November it warned of the longest recession in a century.

Investors this week will also be closely watching new inflation numbers for the eurozone for signs of whether the European Central Bank’s series of outsized 50 basis point interest rate hikes are dampening price pressures.

Latest data shows prices jumped 8.5 per cent across the bloc, among the quickest rises on record, although down from the peak of more than 10 per cent set back in the autumn.

Elsewhere, Bank of England data on Wednesday is expected to show buyers tentatively returning to the housing market as mortgage rates come down following their huge spike as a result of Liz Truss’s mini budget. Credit card lending is also likely to have jumped.

On the corporate front, retail bellwether Next posts final results for last year on Wednesday.

BEST OF THE BROKERS

Tim Martin’s FTSE 250 listed JD Wetherspoon is struggling to offload pubs as part of its costcutting drive. Analysts at Peel Hunt reckon about 35 boozers are still on the market, “some of which have been for sale for many months,” they say. “The problem here is that any buyer of these sites will likely have to do something very different with them to make them work, given that JDW usually retains another pub in close proximity.” Fair point.

Existing

Moonpig customers aren’t going anywhere. They’re a loyal bunch, analysts at Peel Hunt think. As a result, they believe the digital greeting card maker’s share price tumble isn’t justified. “We see no reason to believe that the attractiveness of the core Moonpig proposition has waned. The large majority of sales come from existing customers,” the analysts said.

OPINION

EDITED BY SASCHA O’SULLIVAN

In Broken Britain, we can hardly afford to be smug about a riot-plagued Paris

Eliot Wilson

AS WE look at decaying infrastructure, hard-pressed public services and transport strikes with muted despair, the saying “Broken Britain” has become a staple in the lexicon of the year.

Meanwhile, in Bordeaux, the hotel de ville, an 18th century former archiepiscopal palace, was last week set on fire by rioters protesting at raising the pension age from 62 to 64.

It is not just Bordeaux. Depending on who you believe, between one and threeand-a-half million people took to the streets and boulevards last week for a national day of action. In Paris, protestors fought pitched battles with the formidable CRS, France’s no-prisoners riot police, while young casseurs, masked and dressed in black, left a trail of destruction wherever they went. There were demonstrations in Marseille, Lyon, Besançon, Rennes and Arles, and in Rouen a woman had part of her hand blown off by a teargas grenade.

In the UK, we love to exaggerate our domestic woes, when, in truth, others have it much worse. We are too easily down on Britain over a few cancelled trains, when France is tearing itself apart at the seams.

In France, the political class is divided over President Macron’s proposed reforms to the pension age. His prime min-

ister, Élisabeth Borne, acknowledged the right of voters to protest and express disagreement but called the violence which had accompanied the demonstrations “unacceptable”; while Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the radical left group La France Insoumise demanded that the proposals be withdrawn and warned of a “drift towards authoritarianism”.

Here the positions are hardly less securely entrenched, but the approach of the public is more muted, passive and weary. Four in five members of the public support the role of trades unions, but only 40 per cent extend that to supporting coordinated industrial action; on the other hand, the vast majority think that the government has not handled the var-

ious disputes well and about a third believe a Keir Starmer led Labour government would make a better job if it. But the real difference lies in the broader perception. In the UK, both sides tend to be dazzled or dismayed by the levels of public support—is Mick Lynch the latest darling of the bourgeoisie, or are stoppages meaning people can’t get to Wimbledon?—and they lose sight of the fact that strikes are a means to the end of changes in working conditions and pay. Those are the hard metrics of success, not an approving editorial in The Guardian or a slick appearance on Question Time.

In France, ordinary people, not just union members (France has one of the

weakest union movements in Europe), take to the streets with the spirit of 1968 or the Communards aflame in their hearts to defend a system which trumpets a 35-hour working week and literally outlaws taking lunch at your desk. Windows are broken, and sometimes bones too. Anything to resist the dreaded modèle anglo-saxon, embodiment of everything which is right about France and wrong with the rest of the world.

The truth is that, whether we tut or riot, we have arrived at similar places.

The UK and France have similar populations and similar GDPs. In both countries, basic public services are under acute strain, though one might note that the French Republic’s infrastruc-

So you want to be a tech super power?

Time to put your money where your mouth is

LAST week, the government published a roadmap for reaching tech superpower status by 2030. At the heart of this strategy must be addressing the funding gap which is impeding innovative businesses from scaling up and growing. Tech is an area where the UK already has a competitive advantage.

London attracts more fintech investment than the next 13 European cities combined. And other British cities are also major fintech hubs – there are over 135 fintech firms in Manchester and Leeds, and more than 200 in Scotland. The UK’s cyber security start-ups are worth £30bn - with over 2,000 businesses spread out across Britain.

Yet far too many of these innovative firms struggle, with funding being one of the biggest challenges they must confront. Research by Scale Up Institute and Innovate Finance found that the UK’s growth capital gap was estimated at over £15bn.

The issue is start-ups in particular have limited access to traditional forms of capital, such as bank loans or

Nicholas Lyons

venture capital, due to their size and lack of collateral.

Another barrier is navigating the regulatory environment. Often many lenders have strict requirements when it comes to approving loans, such as personal guarantees, which makes it tricky for firms without access to these. There is a perception that tech firms are a “risky” investment, making it all the more difficult to secure financing from any source.

The immediate risk to the tech ecosystem has been prevented with HSBC’s rescue of Silicon Valley Bank UK. But creating a supportive environment for scaling up and improving access to finance so these businesses can

grow is required here in the UK.

One of the key areas for opportunity will be on reforming pensions. A new report, by the City of London Corporation, shows how reforms to pensions rules across defined contribution schemes could unlock investment in tech and be a powerful catalyst for change.

The UK has the second largest pension fund pot in the world worth £4tn, but UK pension funds invest less than 7 per cent in private equity, real estate and infrastructure – with only 1 per cent invested in private equity.

This means the majority of UK pension funds and their scheme members are not benefitting from these high growth investment opportunities. In comparison, Australian and Canadian pension schemes are investing about 25 to 30 per cent in these asset classes. They have consistently delivered abovemarket returns for the last 30 years.

At the Spring Budget, the Chancellor looked at where pension funds weren’t working, especially where rules were preventing experienced, senior work-

ers from staying in the workforces. Jeremy Hunt has also promised to return later this year with more thorough proposals on how pension funds can support high-growth industries in the UK.

One proposal from the City of London Corporation is the creation of a Future Growth Fund, worth up to £50bn. This would provide a new source of investment into industries such as fintech, biotech, life sciences and green technology. One option for such a Fund could be that every Defined Contribution pension allocates 5 per cent of all contributions into the Fund giving millions of people a stake in it.

The benefits of increasing investment in tech have been clear to the UK for sometime, it will help boost productivity, which has been falling behind for too long, and enable people to re-join a workforce currently struggling for the talent it needs.

£Nicholas Lyons is the Lord Mayor of the City of London Corporation

ture is looking better than ours. Both countries have record balance of payment deficits and are running enormous budget deficits.

The prospects of France are slightly brighter. While Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt have clung to the prediction that the UK will not formally go into recession, the French economy is predicted to grow modestly this year. Inflation is lower in France than the UK, although many believe that our rate has peaked and will begin to fall. Nevertheless, these are, to an extent, arguments about whose bed is closer to the window in the recovery ward.

Cultural differences lie at the heart of the different reactions. The French have a shared sense of the sort of country they want (and deserve) to be. Their tax burden is still high and older workers in the UK will look enviously about street battles over raising the retirement age to 64. Here we lack that kind of solidarité, but we also somehow secretly enjoy the idea that ours is the worst plight in Europe. Think you’ve got it bad? Wait till you hear about us!

This is not a call to arms or a plea for John Lewis to stock up on gilets jaunes. We may be only 20 miles away from France at our closest point, but we have arrived here by very different routes, and we carry very different experiences in our hearts. Perhaps one day we could pool our experiences and try to find a happy medium, but until then, we should all focus on what we want from the current strife, and try to move with as much success as we can achieve.

I CHEWSE YOU

Tik Tok chief exec Shou Zi Chew faced a hostile US Congress last week as American lawmakers decide whether to ban the ByteDance owned appor even force a sale. But Chew garnered a fan following, unsurprisingly on TikTok, with millions watching videos tagged #Team Chew

£ Eliot Wilson is a co-founder of Pivot Point and a columnist at City A.M.

Emmanuel Macron has been accused of an ‘authoritarian drift’ over raising the pension age

WE WANT TO HEAR YOUR VIEWS

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Keeping John Lewis customers

[Re:Why Waitrose is no longer the jewel in the John Lewis crown and how the group’s future may lie in property, not produce, March 17]

There’s no doubt that retailers are facing mixed fortunes as they navigate the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

Upmarket brands like John Lewis are experiencing tough losses as their typical target consumers cut back on more expensive purchases and favour affordable essentials over the “nice to haves”. With the turbulent economy showing no signs of settling down, we’re seeing more businesses turn their focus inwards as they reposition their marketing efforts to reflect what consumers are looking for.

Brands simply cannot survive today’s consumer landscape without one

critical component: trust. It’s the difference between a consumer purchasing from you or your competitor. And when budgets are tight, a recommendation from a friend is more trusted by consumers than any social media post or paid ad. So instead of funnelling money into the same marketing channels that deliver unreliable results, retailers should put their existing customers at the heart of their strategy to drive growth.

By championing this advocacy-first approach, brands can identify their most valuable customers and encourage them to keep coming back –and introduce their friends and family.

The brands that build trust with consumers during economic instability will form stronger relationships with their current and future customers, creating a sustainable growth strategy that lasts long beyond the recession.

Andy Cockburn Mention Me

We’re living with the impact of a decade of a Goldilocks approach to interest rates

Charles WhiteThomson

OVER French protesters set fire to electric scooters on Paris streets

E-SCOOT

In London, e-scooters have been controversial. But in Paris, protestors furious over new pension laws have taken this to a new level, dumping the e-scooters onto piles of rubbish and setting them alight. It makes Londoners look polite.

EXPLAINER-IN-BRIEF: LONDON’S TRANSPORT COSTS ARE HIGHER THAN ALL MAJOR CITIES

If you live in London, you will have noticed public transport costs have gone up by a hefty chunk: from March 5 TfL fares rose by an average of 5.9 per cent.

This makes the UK the country with the most expensive public transport in the world, according to a survey by Picodi. A monthly passunlimited travel with access to all types of public transportation - is £222. For zone 1 and 2 it is less expensive,

but still £156 per month.

The contrast with other cities is stark. In Amsterdam, an unlimited monthly pass is around £87. In Madrid, it’s only £19. In Dublin it is £136 - closest to what we’re used to in London. But then in New York it is only £104.

The rise in fares in the capital city comes after a five-year-long freeze in prices. Mayor Sadiq Khan said his hands were “tied” and rising fares was the only way to keep TfL going.

THE last decade will not be looked back on kindly by financial historians. A period of ultra-loose monetary policy, industrial sized quantitative easing and cheap debt or money has created a generation of investors and corporates with a dependency on financial stimulation, an overly optimistic attitude to portfolio performance and a general lack of risk management.

This cheap money has triggered rampant inflation and asset bubbles. In other words, boom or bust. It has also had its hand in suppressing productivity. The Goldilocks era, as I like to call it, was powered by overly supportive central banks and pervasive moral hazard.

I draw inspiration from an excellent 5000-year chart showing interest rates and the standout period or race to zero during our Goldilocks era. As a reminder, rates in the United States bottomed out at 0.25 basis points and the United Kingdom at 0.10 basis points –rocket fuel for a stimulated and stimulant hungry market. If you need more evidence, then there is the United States Federal Reserve Balance Sheet as a percentage of GDP; it peaked at 37 per cent or $8.95tn late 2021 versus just above 6 per cent in 2007.

During the later phase of the Goldilocks era, investors – whether subconsciously or consciously –adopted the mantra that bad news is good news, as it triggered more interest rate cuts, or quantitative easing and further market stimulation. That is behind us for the time being, with both the Fed and the Bank of England continuing to raise rates.

We are now in a kind of hangover era of monetary policy. This has its own mantra, opposite to before: good news, including excess animal spirits, is bad news as it means the potential for further rate hikes and quantitative tightening. Riddle me that.

This underlines the dependency on stimulation. The hangover will be complex and challenging, with further shocks likely. The choreography of slowing inflation with the blunt weapon that are interest rates opens the way for policy failures either through overtightening or stepping back too soon.

The credibility of the central banks is of paramount importance, and they

During this phase of loose monetary policy, investors believed

have had, in general, a challenging period. In years gone by all the central bank governors needed to do was raise a disapproving eyebrow to quell any mischief or disorderly behaviour. Of the two possibilities, marginally overtightening is preferable. Prematurely stepping back, and inflation rearing back up again, would be particularly damaging for these institutions.

For investors, there is more to it than just “buying the dip”, it has to be about

understanding risk management, being familiar with how to make money when markets decline and being cautious of over concentration.

We all want a return to a time when good news is good news, bad news is bad news and central banks are more traditional and balanced in their response. For the time being, normality is a bit too much to ask for, and investors will have to work hard for their returns.

We must learn our lessons from the Goldilocks periods, with a review of our monetary policy overseen by generalists and experts to understand the risks of sustained excess liquidity and an over accommodating monetary policy. This will be an opportunity to celebrate the wins and bold steps taken in the face of significant global stress and most importantly, a time to review the errors and the consequences, so we don’t repeat them.

£ Charles White-Thomson is chief executive officer at Saxo UK

bad news was good news

Andrew Bailey announced further interest rate hikes in the UK last week

Part motivational summit for millionaires, part super-luxe retreat, Jenny Southan visits the mad world of Aerial BVI

There are certain moments in life that you will always remember. For me, one of these is paddling out to sea at night in a transparent, glow-in-the-dark kayak, while looking up at the stars off the shores of a private island in the BVIs.

Back on land, a banquet was taking place on the beach – everyone was dressed like animals and there were flaming torches embedded in the sand. Before dinner, we had to hold hands and pray (I’m an atheist), and then during the meal, everyone was invited to stand up and speak about their “key wins and takeaways” from the day, while being filmed by a professional camera crew. It sounds like a scene from a movie but sometimes fact is stranger than fiction…

Earlier this year I turned 40 and because of that milestone I felt like doing something radical. I’d been listening to a podcast called “Broke to Woke”, which is co-hosted by self-made millionaire and philanthropist Britnie Turner, and stock trader-slash-motivational speaker Jerremy “Money” Newsome. Having been inspired by their journey as entrepreneurs and the secrets they share in relation to wealth generation, I decided to sign up for the annual four-night “Abundance Summit” that they host on Turner’s private island, the Aerial BVI, in the British Virgin Islands.

If you’re anything like me, and are at a stage in your life where you are thinking “what’s next?” or “how can I level up?”, then the Aerial BVI is probably the most awe-inspiring location to attend a transformational retreat. (That said, you can also rent the whole place for $40,000 per night if you prefer a more traditional holiday, or you can book a room during a Getaway Week when the Aerial BVI operates as a hotel.)

Not only does it look like the location from a reality TV show set in paradise (clifftop mansion, circular infinity pool, fleet of candy-coloured, electric buggies to ferry guests around) but it’s built on principles of sustainability and health. What’s more, Turner has a captivating, guru-like presence that makes her unlike anyone else you have ever met.

A thirty-something former body builder and beauty queen from South Carolina, Turner has long flowing hair and an athletic physique. She’s a thoughtful listener but also a confident, emotive public speaker who, throughout the retreat, shares her journey from growing up “dirt poor” to accumulating enough money through real-estate to buy her own island.

The Abundance Summit is one of five themed retreats that take place throughout the year (the other options are Strength, Love, Presence and Dream), all designed to help attendees achieve “whole life success”, providing you can afford the $10,000 (all-inclusive) entry fee.

Each day starts with an early-morning activity such as hiking, yoga or “equine therapy” on Redemption Ranch, which is where Turner rehabilitates horses, ponies and even zebras that were rescued from slaughter in the US.

Next is a sumptuous, healthy breakfast buffet on a terrace that overlooks the ocean and other islands dotted across the archipelago. There are platters of scrambled eggs, frittata, smoked salmon, avocado, fruit salad, Greek yogurt and jugs of

INSIDE THE £10,000 RETREATBVI TEACHING ETHICAL CAPITALISM

homemade smoothies. There is no meat, no alcohol and no refined sugar. Weightloss is not the objective but despite three plentiful meals a day, it’s a welcome side effect. After breakfast and before dinner are keynote sessions on things like “How to be Wealthy 101” and “The Divine Code of Abundance”, while afternoons are spent doing team-building activities such as beach olympics, raft building and sailing. At night, there are themed fancy dress parties.

I was interested in the Abundance Summit because it specifically related to money and how to use it as a force for good. I have been interested in the idea of “ethical capitalism” for a while, and when Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard recently announced he was giving his entire multi-billion-dollar company to a nonprofit that fights climate change, it confirmed that there are emerging blueprints for “force for good” business. As Turner says: “You are either building your wealth on one of two systems –a ‘greed system’ or a ‘give system’.”

THE TRAVEL HACK

If you’re travelling somewhere that’s likely to have patchy phone reception, or if you just want to make sure you avoid data-roaming charges, you can download individual areas or cities in Google Maps to view offline, ensuring you’re never lost

So what is Turner setting out to achieve with her summits? “For a long time, people with money have been branded ‘successful’ but I think that is an old idea. What I have witnessed is that people are caring more about their relationships and recognising that if their body is broken, they can’t go very far, and you can’t buy your health.

“The summits are immersive events that address each one of these pillars. Abundance is about how you can align your finances with your purpose on Earth; Strength is about aligning your body with your purpose on Earth; Love is about aligning your relationships with your purpose on Earth; and Dream is about getting that clarity for your vision in the first place.”

At this particular summit, which was fully booked, there were about 20 people of differing levels of net-worth. Although no one was transparent about their bank balance, it soon became apparent that there were at least half a dozen multi-millionaires in the room. Turner says her ambition is for everyone who attends to become a “deca billionaire”. (Given that there are

only 2,688 of them on Earth, that is no mean feat.) But why?

Sher defines “abundance” as having “more than enough to respond to the needs of the world”. She dismisses the idea of money being “evil” (despite being taught that herself when being raised Christian); instead she believes that what matters is what you do with your money.

Turner wants people to attend the Abundance Summit to think big. And then bigger still. She describes how her own experience of working as a first-responder in disaster and war zones, as well as a missionary in Africa, where she has seen parents being forced to sell their own children into sex slavery, has made her recognise the power of money to solve the world’s major problems, with human trafficking, hunger, the climate crisis and a lack of clean water being top of the list.

One of my key takeaways was realising that many people –even super-wealthy people –have a “scarcity mindset”, which means they hold on to money tightly and believe there is never enough. An “abun-

dant mindset”, on the other hand, is about believing more is available and more will always come.

What’s really compelling is that Turner appears to practise what she preaches. Just over a decade ago, she was homeless and living in her car while she underwent an unpaid realestate apprenticeship that taught her how to flip houses. Today, she has $200m worth of active domestic and international real-estate projects, and has set up a nonprofit organisation called the Aerial Recovery Group, which trains and deploys US Army veterans on humanitarian missions to places such as Ukraine and flood-hit Pakistan. She says this is a manifestation of her life’s purpose, which is to “serve”.

Also speaking at the Abundance Summit is her husband Jeremy Locke, who is a former Green Beret and chief operating officer of the Aerial Recovery Group, as well as her former realestate mentor Paulie Kazanofski, who

discusses property investment tactics, and Jerremy Newsome, who leads sessions on how to build wealth in stocks, survive a recession and convert “limiting beliefs” into “limitless beliefs”.

Nuggets from the latter include: “Create systems that allow you to purchase liquid assets repeatedly”; “Surround yourself with people who are in this world to grow and learn”; and “Bad times make for good buys”. A former Jehovah’s Witness, he still retains a faith in God, and is over-flowing with kindness and enthusiasm –nobody gives full-body hugs quite like Newsome.

It’s impossible to share everything that I experienced at the Aerial BVI, but I can say that transformation isn’t always easy, even when it takes place in paradise. Tolerating the religious component of the summit, which didn’t align with my own beliefs, was certainly a step outside my comfort zone, but I did feel changed and inspired.

“The Aerial BVI is a private island experience that elevates you and your purpose,” says Turner. “It is a force for good. And if you’re not attending an event that I run, then the island is made to heal anybody that comes here anyway –all the programmes, the food, the activities are going to help you ‘centre’. You are going to be restored.”

NEED TO KNOW

For more information on the summits and how to book go to aerialbvi.com

BVI LOWDOWN

The movers and shakers in paradise

MOSKITO ISLAND

Owned by Richard Branson, Moskito Island opened to guests last year and is one of the most exclusive places to stay in the BVIs. There are three mansions available to book including the 11-bedroom Branson Estate, the Oasis Estate (sleeping 18 guests) and Point Estate (for 14 people). A fourth property will be coming on to the rental market soon, complete with a cantilevered, glass-bottomed hot tub among other surprises.

£ virginlimitededition.com

SCRUB ISLAND

The Scrub Island Resort, Spa and Marina, which is part of Marriott’s Autograph Collection, unveiled two new villas for 2022. (In total there are 13, plus a good selection of sizeable room and suites with doors opening on to generous balconies.) Ideally located for fishing excursions, the property’s marina has 55 deep-water slips, five of which are specifically for larger mega-yachts. There is also a helicopter pad and a sandy beach.

£ scrubisland.com

SABA ROCK

Under renovation since 2017, Saba Rock reopened at the beginning of the 2022 with a whole new look. Built on a rock in the North Sound sea, the micro-resort has a tiny man-made beach with a cluster of palm trees, a panoramic restaurant deck, a lively bar, nautical gift shop and nine trendy guest rooms built from timber. It’s also a good location for kite-surfing.

£ sabarock.com

BOOK THIS

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TIMES TO TREASURE

SPORT

FOOTBALL

Chelsea’s WSL title defence hit by Man City blow

MATT HARDY

CHELSEA’S Women’s Super League title defence suffered a blow yesterday with the Blues losing to rivals Manchester City at the Academy Stadium.

Filippa Angeldahl and Lauren Hemp scored in the first half to give Gareth Taylor’s side a 2-0 victory over Emma Hayes’s Chelsea.

The result – combined with Manchester United’s dominant 4-0 victory over West Ham on Saturday – leaves Chelsea third, behind United and City in the WSL table.

The two Manchester clubs each have 38 points but United have a superior goal difference.

Chelsea are a point behind on 37, with Arsenal two points further down the table in fourth – although both of the London clubs have a game in hand over the Manchester duo.

A PERFECT START

GARETH Southgate declared himself satisfied after England completed a perfect start to qualifying for Euro 2024 with a 2-0 win over Ukraine at Wembley.

First-half goals from Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka proved enough to glean all three points yesterday and follow up Thursday’s win over Italy in the team’s opening match in Group C.

“Really pleased with the performance,” said Southgate. “In Italy we played very well with the ball in the first half. In the second half we conceded possession cheaply but had to show resilience.

“To back up that result was really important. We’re in a good position now

grow. We made a difficult game look straightforward.”

Southgate also hailed Saka and midfielder Jude Bellingham after the pair further cemented their places in England’s starting XI during this international double-header.

“It’s the mentality that I think is the outstanding part. Everyone can see technical quality but these two boys have humility, want to learn and work hard for the team,” he said.

On Saka’s goal, he added: “You know that when he cuts in that's possible. It’s a top level finish. That’s the ruthless part he’s added to his game in the last 18 months or so.”

Welsh clubs overwhelmingly vote in favour of reform

MATT HARDY

LOCAL clubs across Wales yesterday voted for major reform to the way the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) is governed.

Of the 282 clubs eligible to vote for changes to the way the rugby union structures its board, 252 clubs voted with 245 voting in favour. The successful vote at the extraordinary general meeting in Port Talbot will see a woman become either chief executive or chair of the WRU, with the chair now being an independent individual.

Other reforms include changes to

elected club officials and appointed independents for the board.

The changes have been made following a torrid period in Welsh rugby whereby allegations of sexism and misogyny led to former chief executive Steve Phillips to resign.

“I’m delighted with the support members have shown for the board’s recommendation today,”

Ieuan Evans, WRU chair (pictured), said. “We now have a line in the sand from which we intend to move forward purposefully, swiftly and better prepared to serve Welsh rugby’s needs. This is another historic day in the 142-year history of the WRU.”

first-half performance in last week’s win in Naples, instead effectively winning this game in a four-minute spell shortly before the break.

Eight years to the day since he scored his first senior international goal, England’s new record scorer Kane added his 55th when he arrived at the far post to turn in Saka’s teasing cross. Moments later Saka got on the scoresheet himself in even more impressive fashion, taking the ball with his back to goal, turning and curling into the top left corner from 20 yards. The contest fizzled out thereafter, with the hosts coasting to a 100 per cent start to their Group C campaign and Ukraine

“We should be looking at the group and wanting to win every game,” said Bellingham. “You set yourself a standard and an expectation and it’s important you match that. We have to carry that on for the rest of the qualification campaign.”

Saka said: “I think it’s gone really well. We’ve been really mature about it. We can be really happy with this past week.”

Other positives for England included James Maddison looking purposeful on his first start. “We are always trying to think about now and what is next,” said Southgate. “We did that with James Maddison today. We thought it was a good game to see him.”

“We lost. I was proud of the secondhalf performance. It’s important now we get all our thoughts into Thursday. It’s a tough loss but well done Manchester City,” Hayes said.

“Absolutely [we looked tired]. But I’m not going to say a negative word about my players. I love them. I know how hard they pushed in the second half. This was one game too many.”

City boss Taylor added: “The situation is the situation. Like I say, it is still Chelsea’s. If they win their game in hand they can go two clear of each of the three teams [City, United and Arsenal].

“There’s goal difference to consider as well, theirs is slightly superior to ours. There’s still going to be twists and turns.”

Elsewhere Aston Villa continued their impressive run of wins with a 5-0 victory over Leicester City at Villa Park – both Rachel Daly and Alisha Lehmann netted a brace while Kenza Dali got the other goal.

Greece midfielder Veatriki Sarri netted an early brace to give Brighton a 2-0 lead after 13 minutes but the Seagulls couldn’t hold on against Reading, with the hosts clawing back the two-goal deficit through Emma Harries to secure a 2-2 draw.

Cambridge men

and

women do double in the Boat Race

MATT HARDY

CAMBRIDGE won both the men’s and women’s Boat Races on the Thames yesterday as the Light Blues returned to rowing dominance in the capital.

The varsity boat race saw its 168th men’s edition yesterday with Cambridge passing the finishing post ahead by over a boat length, holding off a late Oxford charge.

The women’s race, too, was won by Cambridge in what was their sixth straight victory in the competition.

Cambridge’s two reserve crews –Goldie and Blondie – also won, completing a quadruple for the university boat club.

“It’s been an absolutely incredible performance by all the crews – wins across the board for the club. It’s fantastic for the club as a whole and every crew had a fantastic race,” Ollie Boyne, Cambridge men’s president, said. “The conditions really were difficult, every time you thought they’d get a bit better they got a bit worse. But that’s what makes this race so special.

“I’m not sure we can put [the effort] into words.”

The pair of wins means Cambridge now lead the all-time men’s battle between the two sides 86-81 while the Light Blue win in the 77th women’s boat race saw the head-to-head favour Cambridge by 47-30.

ROWING

RUGBY UNION

Non-league contract row raises old question

WHETHER it realises it or not, non-league football has raised an age-old legal argument: should sportspeople be treated as a separate case under employment law, given the unique space in which they operate?

Reports suggesting that National League players could be prepared to go on strike over upcoming contract changes put forward by the Football Association will now have wider sport asking the same question.

Under proposals which would come into effect on 1 July, injured players across the division will only receive full wages for 12 weeks before moving onto “club sick pay” of £99.35 per week for up to 28 weeks. Those competing below the fifth league of English foot-

RUGBY UNION

SPORT COMMENT

Stephen Taylor Heath

ball, meanwhile, will only be offered full pay for six weeks.

That is a marked change from the current climate, in which sidelined players are eligible for full pay throughout their contracts unless an independent medical expert determines an injury has ended a career.

There are few precedents set when it comes to labour reforms in football, with Jimmy Hill credited for leading a

campaign to scrap maximum wage rules as far back as the 1960s.

So why the change? The argument for alterations stems from the financial pressure non-league teams face following a loss of income during the pandemic, increased competition and the professionalism of sides.

WALKOUT

While professional footballers’ union the PFA is not directly responsible for players outside English football’s top four divisions, it has reportedly advised those impacted to stick together and warned its existing members about changes to the standard contract at non-league level.

Various players within the division have been members of the PFA earlier in their careers and it is believed that

around 85 per cent of National League players were previously signed up to the association. The most extreme course of action would be for players to strike, although it would be difficult to see how they could justify a walkout as the new terms, including sick pay provisions, still appear to be more advantageous than general employment law. While calls for a strike have caught the headlines, push back is already in effect: captains throughout the division have got together and signed a letter demanding action.

Letters and walkouts may cause the FA to review or retract its proposals, although the governing body will know full well that new contractual provisions cannot just be forced on the players and to existing employment deals

as that requires mutual agreement. Alterations may be staggered even if the proposed implementation is scheduled for this summer, but as we have seen with football agents and new rules to cap their fees, we could get a flurry of contracts being signed to avoid these implications.

If the proposed terms are to apply to new contracts, then an important distinction will be between breach of contract claims and general claims under employment law, such as unfair dismissal or disability discrimination. While proposals have revisited a legal conundrum, from the initial reaction to the FA’s proposition it would appear that we are no closer to a solution. Stephen Taylor Heath is head of sports law at JMW Solicitors.

AND THERE we have it, the once-chronic Premiership rugby underachievers and serial drawers London Irish are in the top four and storming towards the play-offs.

Director of rugby Declan Kidney and head coach Les Kiss have taken a side that won just one of their opening eight games – excluding their match against the now-dissolved Worcester Warriors – and has turned them into an outfit who are on a Premiership run of seven wins in nine.

Irish’s late surge towards the top four and the Premiership semi-finals continued at the weekend with an impressive 37-22 victory over Northampton Saints in Saturday’s St Patrick’s Day Party at the Gtech Community Stadium in west London.

The plucky Exiles were promoted back into the top flight ahead of the 2019-2020 season and have steadily improved year by year. First it was 10th, then ninth, then eighth and now fourth; they’ve just got to hold on.

The London club have managed to develop a squad that harnesses some extraordinary English talent – such as Henry Arundell, Ollie Hassell-Collins and Ben Loader – and combine it with well recruited overseas players like Samoa No8 So’otala Fa’aso’o.

TOM ON A ROLL

But the star of the show at a packed out arena in Brentford was young English talent Tom Pearson.

The 23-year-old back-row had been in and out of former England coach Eddie Jones’s squads but is undoubtedly knocking on the door of the national team now under new coach Steve Borthwick.

Pearson is the latest off the Cardiff Met university production line which has also delivered the likes of established international Alex Dombrandt and Harlequins centre Luke Northmore, so his stock is high.

But his explosion of energy and ability to accelerate through contact is an attribute Dombrandt doesn’t have and his offloading game beyond the gainline is something reminiscent of Northmore at his best.

Pearson was class, but many of the other Irish boys were too.

BUILT ON MORE THAN LUCK

Their issue comes in their schedule: they’re out of Europe and now do not play a match for another three weeks. Thereafter they face Saracens before meeting Exeter Chiefs, currently sixth, on the last weekend of the regular season in what many are predicting to be a winner-takes-all clash.

Irish are an exciting team, and they embody what a quality English Premiership team should be: a solid club with fan favourites and a fair chunk of growing room.

It is an exciting prospect for the club’s current and future owners, given growing rumours of the club

POACH, NICK AND STEAL

Club sources have told City A.M. that they would like to draw Irish giants –but beatable opposition – Munster in the Champions Cup next year, and being comfortably in the top eight provides them with that chance.

Irish, by choice, have become London’s newest Premiership club. But they’re becoming one of the neutrals’ favourites too.

Saturday’s win against Northampton Saints was a statement one and they’re really showing how a side can target a string of matches and turn it into a

top flight to have not made the top four in the last decade, but that could change this year.

And when a club – who have been famed for developing incredibly talented players only for other clubs to poach, nick and steal for their own good – is on a good run and playing such good rugby while doing it, it is difficult not to enjoy watching them week in, week out.

It would be a huge moment for the London club to reach the top four and if form is any guide, Irish are one of the prime bets to reach the post-regular season party.

Irish are on a roll and they are mounting a charge for the top four, writes Matt Hardy