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CHRISTMAS
BRITS ‘TRADE DOWN’ FOR FESTIVE SEASON AS FOOD INFLATION CONTINUES TO BITE EMILY HAWKINS DISCOUNT grocers are looking forward to what could be record Christmases as Brits look for value options ahead of the expensive festive season. Lidl boosted sales by 21.5 per cent year on year over the last three months, sending its market share to a new record high. Rival Aldi, too, increased sales, amid skyhigh inflation which is being felt most
keenly in the food aisles. Shoppers are increasingly switching to cheaper alternatives of food essentials, according to data from insights firm Kantar. New figures out yesterday said grocery inflation touched 14.7 per cent in October on an annual basis, driven by supply chain issues and higher costs for grocers on everything from energy to distribution. Own label sales leapt 10.3 per cent, while
the very cheapest value own label ranges saw sales swell by 42 per cent over the past four weeks. While pricier supermarkets would be protected by customers splashing out for a festive treat, analysts warned middle market grocers would see intense pressure in the aisles this Christmas. Advertising campaigns pitched as ‘price matches’ are now de rigueur amongst some of Britain’s best-known household names.
“You don’t get marketing that direct unless you’re very worried,” Hargreaves Lansdown’s equity analyst, Sophie Lund Yates, said. Kantar’s Fraser McKevitt said he expected Lidl and Aldi to enjoy record Christmas revenues in the UK. Budget chains Aldi and Lidl now take up 16.4 per cent of the market, compared to just 4.4 per cent during the 2008 financial crash.
Analysts at the investment bank Jefferies said Brits were “displaying remarkable resilience in discretionary areas [but] continue to backsolve inflationary challenges in grocery by trading down to discounters”. The biggest grocers have taken a tumble on stock markets this year. Tesco stands around 22 per cent down on where it started 2022, with Sainsbury’s down 21 per cent.
Bank: We’re not inflation nutters – but there’s probably more pain on the way JACK BARNETT
THE BANK of England is not to blame for the UK fumbling into the longest recession since records began and rate setters are not “inflation nutters”, its chief economist said yesterday. Huw Pill (right), who replaced Andy Haldane last year as
Threadneedle Street’s top wonk, said the UK’s slowdown was being “driven by other forces” beyond the central bank’s rapid rate hike cycle. The coming slump is a “necessary part of the dis-inflation [we] need to see,” he said.
Inflation soaring to a 40-year high of 10.1 per cent, coupled with higher mortgage and energy bills, will spark a spending slowdown, plunging the UK into a slow burning economic slump lasting two years, the Bank forecast last week. Bank officials said
the long recession would only happen if borrowing costs hit 5.25 per cent, something which governor Andrew Bailey last week said was highly unlikely. Pill doubled down on those remarks, saying the monetary authority was trying to fix a “deanchoring” in market rate expectations after the mini-budget.
He also said he was “sceptical” of front loading rate rises, suggesting the Bank’s monetary policy committee was unlikely to keep hiking borrowing costs 75 basis points, as it did last Thursday. But, Pill said the Bank “cannot declare victory against second round effects” yet, indicating more rises are coming.
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