POLICY BRIEF NO. 38 APRIL 2014
CHINA’S LONG MARCH TOWARD ECONOMIC REBALANCING HONGYING WANG KEY POINTS • China’s role in the global imbalance is closely linked to its domestic imbalance. • Chinese policy makers have long been aware of the dual imbalance and the imperative to shift to economic growth driven by domestic consumption. • They have taken limited steps in changing the development model, but political obstacles have slowed the pace of reform. • The new leadership seems serious about deepening economic reform despite political resistance, but without political reform, the prospect of success remains dim.
INTRODUCTION After more than three decades of sustained economic growth, China has become the second-largest economy in the world. Chinese policies and behaviour have come to shape the global economy in profound ways and what China does, or does not do, at home and abroad often has broad implications for the rest of the world. This policy brief examines China’s external and internal economic imbalance and analyzes the political obstacles hindering its economic HONGYING WANG Hongying Wang is a CIGI senior fellow. She is also associate professor of political science at the University of Waterloo, specializing in international political economy and East Asian politics. At CIGI, Hongying is focussing on the limits of the exchange rate mechanism in addressing China’s role in global imbalances and China’s role in several areas of global economic governance.
rebalancing.
CHINA’S DUAL ECONOMIC IMBALANCE In the years leading up to the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-2008, many commentators noted China’s large current account surplus, which reached 10 percent of its GDP in 2007, and its insatiable accumulation of foreign reserves, which amounted to US$1.5 trillion in the same year. Although the GFC did not actually result from a disorderly unwinding of the current