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Signum Oil Analysis: o poder de prever

Page 1

6LJQXP 2LO $QDO\VLV R SRGHU GH SUHYHU

M 120

8PD DQ¼OLVH GH ÎOHRV 8VDGRV 0RELO 6LJQXP 2LO $QDOLV\V XPD FDSDFLGDGH RQOLQH TXH DMXGD D JXLDU R VHX QHJÎFLR 3RGH JHULU PHOKRU RV VHXV HTXLSDPHQWRV FRP VHUYLÂRV DQDOÈWLFRV HVSHFLDOL]DGRV TXH OKH DXPHQWDP D SURGXWLYLGDGH

IDFWR GH WHU DWLQJLGR R P¼[LPR GD VXD YLGD ÕWLO RX HQW¾R SRUTXH RV QÈYHLV GH FRQ WDPLQD¾R M¼ DWLQJLUDP XP SRQWR TXH UH TXHU D WURFD GR OXEULƬFDQWH SRU XPD QRYD FDUJD RX HQW¾R TXDQGR LVVR Ä RS¾R SUR

82

3HGUR 9LHLUD /XEULJUXSR 7HO ZZZ PRELOLQGXVWULDO FRP ZZZ OXEULJUXSR SW

CASE STUDY

FHGHU » UHVSHWLYD SXULƬFD¾R 4XDQGR VH $WUDYÄV GR QRVVR SURJUDPD DYDQ

IDOD GH FRQWDPLQDQWHV R REMHWLYR Ä GHWH

ÂDGR 6LJQXP 2LO $QDO\VLV ǟ HVSHFLIL

WDU D SUHVHQÂD GH HOHPHQWRV HVWUDQKRV DR

FDPHQWH DGDSWDGR SDUD PRQLWRUL]DU

HTXLSDPHQWR H SHUJXQWDU p2 TXH Ä TXH

LQGLFDGRUHV FUÈWLFRV QR ÎOHR XVDGR

V¾R" 'H RQGH Ä TXH YLHUDP SUÎSULR HTXLSD

FRP EDVH QDV HVSHFLILFDÂÐHV GRV SULQ

PHQWR JHUDGR GXUDQWH D RSHUD¾R LQWURGX

FLSDLV FRQVWUXWRUHV GH HTXLSDPHQWRV

]LGR D SDUWLU GR H[WHULRU " &RPR Ä TXH SRV

H SDGUÐHV LQWHUQDFLRQDLV ǟ SRGH

VR SUHYHQLU QRYD FRQWDPLQD¾R H[WHULRU RX

PRV SURSRUFLRQDU R FRQKHFLPHQWR

GHVJDVWH GR HTXLSDPHQWR" 2V FRQWDPL

QHFHVV¼ULR SDUD PHOKRU HQWHQGHU D

QDQWHV DWXDP FRPR XP FDWDOLVDGRU QR

FRQGL¾R GRV OXEULILFDQWHV H HTXLSD

FDVR GR GHVJDVWH (IHWLYDPHQWH HVWHV PD

PHQWRV GD HPSUHVD

WHULDLV GH GHVJDVWH DWXDP FRPR FDWDOLVD

(VWH SURJUDPD OÈGHU VXSRUWDGR SRU

GRUHV SDUD R GHVJDVWH GRV FRPSRQHQWHV

2 OXEULƬFDQWH Ä R VDQJXH GDV P¼TXL

XPD UHGH JOREDO GH SURƬVVLRQDLV H[SH

6H HVWH FLFOR Q¾R IRU TXHEUDGR R GHVJDVWH

QDV H GRV HTXLSDPHQWRV GDÈ D LPSRU

ULHQWHV GH OXEULƬFD¾R LQGXVWULDO 0RELO

DXPHQWD FDGD YH] PDLV UDSLGDPHQWH OH

W½QFLD YLWDO TXH UHSUHVHQWD D VXD DQ¼OL

SRGH DMXG¼ OR D DWLQJLU XP QÈYHO PDLV HOH

YDQGR D XPD DFHQWXDGD GHJUDGD¾R GRV

VH TXHU SDUD DYDOLDU R VHX HVWDGR TXHU

YDGR QD PDQXWHQ¾R GD VXD HPSUHVD $

UHVXOWDGRV GD DQ¼OLVH GLPLQXLQGR GUDV

SDUD DYDOLDU R HVWDGR GR HTXLSDPHQ

DQ¼OLVH GRV ÎOHRV XVDGRV Ä XPD ÕWLO SUH

WLFDPHQWH D FDSDFLGDGH SDUD R ÎOHR VH

WR WDQWR QR SUHVHQWH FRPR QR IXWX

GLWLYD H SURDWLYD IHUUDPHQWD TXH SRGH

PDQWHU HP VHUYLÂR

UR (IHWLYDPHQWH PXLWR FRPR DFRQ

DMXGDU D SUHYHQLU IDOKDV QRV HTXLSDPHQ

WHFH FRP R PÄGLFR TXH DYDOLD D QRVVD

WRV GHWHUPLQDU D RULJHP GDV FDXVDV GDV

VDÕGH DWUDYÄV GD DQ¼OLVH GR QRVVR VDQ

IDOKDV H DMXGDU D HQFRQWUDU SUREOHPDV

JXH RV HTXLSDPHQWRV FUÈWLFRV QHFHVVL

RSHUDFLRQDLV H FRQWDPLQDÂÐHV

WDP GH VHUHP PRQLWRUL]DGRV GD PHVPD

0RQLWRUL]DQGR RV PHWDLV GH GHVJDVWH SDUD XPD GHWH¾R DWHPSDGD GH DOWHUDÂÐHV DQRUPDLV QR HTXLSDPHQWR $ DQ¼OLVH GRV PHWDLV GH GHVJDVWH LQGLFD

IRUPD DWUDYÄV GD DQ¼OLVH GR VHX OXEULƬ

QRV HVSHFLƬFDPHQWH R HVWDGR GH VDÕGH

RX GRV ÎUJ¾RV GR HTXLSDPHQWR V¾R UH

%(1()¨&,26 '$ $1 /,6( '2 /8%5,),&$17(

YHODGRV DWUDYÄV GD FROKHLWD H DQ¼OLVH GH

ǟ 2WLPL]D¾R GR WHPSR GH YLGD GR

SULQFLSDO IXQ¾R GH XP OXEULƬFDQWH Ä VH

FDQWH 6LQWRPDV FUÈWLFRV GR OXEULƬFDQWH

DPRVWUDV GR OXEULƬFDQWH H FDVR Q¾R VH MDP FRUULJLGRV SRGHP GDU RULJHP » GH JUDGD¾R GR HTXLSDPHQWR H SHUGD GH SURGXWLYLGDGH &RQVHTXHQWHPHQWH R REMHWLYR GH XP SURJUDPD GH DQ¼OLVH GH

HTXLSDPHQWR ǟ $XPHQWR GRV LQWHUYDORV GH PXGDQ ÂD GR ÎOHR ǟ 5HGX¾R GRV WHPSRV GH SDUDJHP Q¾R SUHYLVWRV

ÎOHR XVDGR Ä YHULƬFDU D WHQGÅQFLD GDV

ǟ $XPHQWR GD VHJXUDQÂD GD RSHUD¾R

DOWHUDÂÐHV JUDGXDLV GDV FDUDWHUÈVWLFDV

ǟ %HQHIÈFLRV DPELHQWDLV

(VWD Ä D EDVH GH XPD PDQXWHQ¾R SUH

PRYLPHQWR UHODWLYR HQWUH HODV 1R HQ WDQWR Ä SUDWLFDPHQWH LPSRVVÈYHO TXH VH FRQVLJD PDQWHU XP pƬOPHqGH OXEULƬFDQ WH TXH SRVVLELOLWH D VHSDUD¾R SHUPD QHQWH GHVVDV PHVPDV VXSHUIÈFLHV 'HVWH PRGR R FRQWDFWR PHWDO PH HTXLSDPHQWRV GH DOWD WHFQRORJLD &RQ

WHULDLV GH GHVJDVWH GH PDQHLUD D SRGHU FRQWURODGD H DGHTXDGDPHQWH SODQHDGD

SDUDU GXDV VXSHUIÈFLHV TXH WHQKDP XP

WDO SRGH RFRUUHU PHVPR QRV PRGHUQRV

GR ƮXLGR GRV FRQWDPLQDQWHV H GRV PD PRV LQLFLDU XPD D¾R FRUUHWLYD GH IRUPD

GR QRVVR HTXLSDPHQWR &RPR VH VDEH D

$ $1 /,6( '26 ®/(26 86$'26 $8;,/,$ $ (48,3$ '( 0$187(1¢ 2 '( '8$6 )250$6

YÄP GHVWH PRGR WHU VHPSUH HP PHQWH TXH D OXEULƬFD¾R OLPLWH HVWDU¼ VHPSUH SUHVHQWH QR DUUDQTXH GRV HTXLSDPHQ WRV 1HVVD DOWXUD FUÈWLFD GD RSHUD¾R GD

GLWLYD TXH YLVD DVVHJXUDU D P¼[LPD GLV

P¼TXLQD H[LVWLU¼ VHPSUH DOJXP PDWHULDO

FHVVLGDGH GH XP SURJUDPD SDUD VLPSOL

'HWHUPLQDQGR D FRQGL¾R IÈVLFR TXÈPLFD GD FRQWDPLQD¾R GR ÎOHR

ƬFDU WRGR R SURFHVVR GH PRQLWRUL]D¾R

$ FDSDFLGDGH GR OXEULƬFDQWH VH PDQWHU

WLGDGH GR GHVLJQ GR HTXLSDPHQWR H GD

GD OXEULƬFD¾R QXQFD IRL W¾R JUDQGH

HP VHUYLÂR SRGH VHU FRQGLFLRQDGD SHOR

FRUUHWD OXEULƬFD¾R GR PHVPR

SRQLELOLGDGH GRV HTXLSDPHQWRV FRP R PHQRU FXVWR SRVVÈYHO 'HVWH PRGR D QH

GH GHVJDVWH QRUPDO RX Q¾R TXH VHU¼ JHUDGR GHSHQGHQGR D UHVSHWLYD TXDQ


IRUPXODÂÐHV HVSHFÈƬFDV GH FDGD OXEUL

SURJUDPD GH DQ¼OLVH GH ÎOHRV Ä

ƬFDQWH Q¾R SHUPLWLQGR TXH FRPSUH

FRQYHQLHQWH FRPSUHHQGHU H GH

HQGDP VH DV GLIHUHQÂDV REVHUYDGDV V¾R

ILQLU SDUD TXH Ä TXH VH QHFHVVLWD

RX Q¾R VLJQLƬFDWLYDV

GHVVH PHVPR SURJUDPD H TXDO D LQIOXÅQFLD TXH VH HVSHUD REWHU QD

3DVVR ,QWHUSUHWDU

PHOKRULD GD SURGXWLYLGDGH GRV

)D]HU D FRUUHWD UHYLV¾R GRV UHVXOWD

HTXLSDPHQWRV

84

CASE STUDY

GRV H GHWHUPLQDU TXDLV DV DÂÐHV TXH

ǟ )DOWD GH FRQKHFLPHQWR QD LQ

VH GHYHP WRPDU FDVR LVVR VH MXVWL

WHUSUHWD¾R GRV UHVXOWDGRV Ä

ILTXH IDFH DRV UHVXOWDGRV REWLGRV

LPSRUWDQWH FRQKHFHU VXILFLHQ

SRGH VHU D FKDYH SDUD R VXFHVVR RX LQ

WHPHQWH EHP RV HTXLSDPHQWRV

VXFHVVR GH XP SURJUDPD GH DQ¼OLVHV

SDUD UDSLGDPHQWH UHODFLRQDU RV

$ ([[RQ0RELO WHP XPD H[WHQVD EDVH

UHVXOWDGRV GDV DQ¼OLVHV FRP D

VLGDGHV H SUHRFXSDÂÐHV GRV FOLHQWHV

GH GDGRV GH HTXLSDPHQWRV H UHVSH

HYROX¾R GD VXD SHUIRUPDQFH DR

PDLV H[LJHQWHV VHQGR XP SURJUDPD

WLYDV DQ¼OLVHV WHQGR FRP LVVR GHVHQ

ORQJR GR WHPSR

DEUDQJHQWH I¼FLO GH XVDU VHJXUR H

YROYLGR OLPLWHV GH FRQWUROR EDVHDGRV

ǟ )DOWD GH FRPSURPLVVR Ä QHFHV

HP DQRV GH WHVWHV FRQMXJDGRV FRP

V¼ULR R FRPSURPLVVR PÕWXR GDV

7RPH GHFLVÐHV FRP FRQƬDQÂD VD

DV UHFRPHQGDÂÐHV GRV IDEULFDQWHV

SDUWHV HQYROYLGDV GHVGH R PDLV

EHQGR TXH D ([[RQ0RELO LQYHVWH UHFXU

(P TXDOTXHU GRV FDVRV Ä QHFHVV¼ULR

DOWR UHVSRQV¼YHO DR RSHUDGRU TXH

VRV FRQVLGHU¼YHLV QXP SURJUDPD ULJR

TXH VH FRPSUHHQGD TXH XPD DPRV

UHWLUD D DPRVWUD 3DUD TXH R SUR

URVR GH TXDOLGDGH JDUDQWLGD

WUD FRP XP UHVXOWDGR GH pDOHUWDq Q¾R

JUDPD VHMD EHP VXFHGLGR Ä QHFHV

ǟ 5HFHED DYDOLDÂÐHV GH HVSHFLDOLV

TXHU GL]HU QHFHVVDULDPHQWH TXH R

V¼ULR TXH WRGRV TXHLUDP GHGLFDU R

WDV TXH SRGHP Q¾R VÎ LGHQWLILFDU

HTXLSDPHQWR HVWHMD QD HPLQÅQFLD GH

WHPSR H D IRUPD¾R QHFHVV¼ULRV

XP SRWHQFLDO SUREOHPD PDV WDP

DR SURJUDPD

EÄP OLVWDU SRVVÈYHLV FDXVDV H UH

XPD IDOKD +¼ TXH SURFXUDU VHPSUH

FRQIL¼YHO

QHVWH WLSR GH GLDJQÎVWLFR VH Ä UHFR

ǟ 3URFHGLPHQWRV H SU¼WLFDV GH

PHQGDGR UHWLUDU XPD QRYD DPRVWUD

DPRVWUDJHP GHƬFLHQWHV GHƬFLHQ

SDUD FRQILUPDU R UHVXOWDGR DQWHV GH

WHV SURFHGLPHQWRV GH DPRVWUD

ǟ %HQHƬFLH GR FRQKHFLPHQWR GRV

FRPHQGDU DÂÐHV GH DFRPSDQKD PHQWR

JHP OHYDP D UHVXOWDGRV HUUÎQHRV

YDORUHV OLPLWH GRV WHVWHV SUHFRQL

ǟ )UHTXÅQFLDV GH DPRVWUDJHP LUUH

]DGRV SHORV IDEULFDQWHV GR HTXLSD

JXODUHV PRQLWRUL]DU D FRQGL¾R

PHQWR WHQGR HP FRQWD R PRGHOR

3DVVR s 7RPDU DV 'HYLGDV $ÂÐHV &RUUHWLYDV H 5HJLVWDU

GH XP IOXLGR H D SHUIRUPDQFH GH

R OXEULƬFDQWH H D XWLOL]D¾R GR VHX

&RPR VHPSUH R UHJLVWR Ä D FKDYH

WDWÈVWLFD GRV UHVXOWDGRV GDV VXDV

ǟ %HQHƬFLH GDV YDQWDJHQV GDV SU¼WL

SDUD VH VDEHU RQGH VH HVWHYH TXDQ

DQ¼OLVHV Ä PXLWR PDLV ÕWLO GR TXH

FDV H PÄWRGRV XWLOL]DGRV QR 6LJQXP

GR H R TXH VH IH] 'RFXPHQWDU DV

UHFRUUHU » DPRVWUDJHP DSHQDV

VHUHP UHJXODUPHQWH DXGLWDGRV

DÂÐHV FRUUHWLYDV UHVXOWDQWHV GRV UH

TXDQGR VH GHVFRQILD GD H[LVWÅQFLD

ǟ ([SHULPHQWH XP FRPSURPLVVR

VXOWDGRV GDV DQ¼OLVHV GRV ÎOHRV Ä

GH DOJXP SUREOHPD 1RUPDOPHQ

FRP TXDOLGDGH DWUDYÄV GH UHVXO

PXLWR LPSRUWDQWH 2 KLVWRULDO GDV

WH TXDQGR LVVR RFRUUH M¼ Ä GHPD

WDGRV FRQVLVWHQWHV H SUHFLVRV QDV

DQ¼OLVHV H R UHJLVWR GDV UHVSHWLYDV

VLDGR WDUGH H Q¾R HVWDPRV FRP R

DQ¼OLVHV GH ÎOHR

DÂÐHV FRUUHWLYDV TXH IRUDP WRPDGDV

FRQWUROR GD FRQGL¾R GR HTXLSD

V¾R GLIÈFHLV GH FRQWUDSRU SRU TXDO

PHQWR

SDUD HVWDEHOHFHU R VHX SURJUDPD

2 HVWDEHOHFLPHQWR GR SODQHDPHQ

GH DQ¼OLVHV

VH SURFHGHU D XPD LPSRUWDQWH D¾R FRUUHWLYD

TXHU IDEULFDQWH HP FDVR GH GLVSXWD

XP VLVWHPD DWUDYÄV GD DQ¼OLVH HV

HTXLSDPHQWR

ǟ 2EWHQKD D IRUPD¾R QHFHVV¼ULD

TXDQGR VH ID] XVR GD JDUDQWLD GRV

WR GD OXEULƬFD¾R MXQWDPHQWH FRP

HTXLSDPHQWRV

XP PRGHUQR VRIWZDUH GH DQ¼OLVH

8P PDQDQFLDO GH LQIRUPD¾R ÕWLO HQFRQ

GH ÎOHRV FRPR Ä R FDVR GR 0RELO

WUD VH GLVSRQÈYHO QR ZHEVLWH 6LJQXP 2LO

6LJQXP 2LO $QDO\VLV SRGH DMXGDU QD

$QDO\VLV ZZZ VLJQXPRLODQDO\VLV FRP

325 48( ¤ 48( 80 352*5$0$ '( $1 /,6( '( ®/(26 32'(

LPSOHPHQWD¾R H QR UDVWUHDPHQWR

SURWHJLGR SRU SDVVZRUG

)$/+$5

DV YDQWDJHQV GDÈ LQHUHQWHV

GH XPD DPRVWUDJHP GH URWLQD FRP 6H QHFHVVLWDU GH DMXGD SDUD D LPSOH

4XDQGR R SURJUDPD GH DPRVWUDJHP

PHQWD¾R GH XP SURJUDPD GH DQ¼OL

IDOKD HP JHUDO Ä GHYLGR D XP GRV VH

VHV GH ÎOHR QRV VHXV HTXLSDPHQWRV D

JXLQWHV FLQFR IDWRUHV

62/8¢ 2

HTXLSD GD /XEULJUXSR HVW¼ DR VHX GLV

ǟ )DOWD GH HQWHQGLPHQWR 6DEHU R

2 6LJQXP 2LO $QDO\VLV Ä XP SURJUD

SRU SDUD DMXGDU QHVVD WDUHID 1ÎV SR

TXH VH SRGH HVSHUDU GR SURJUD

PD FRP WRGRV RV UHFXUVRV LQGR DOÄP

GHPRV DMXGDU D GHVHQYROYHU R VHX SUR

PD GH DQ¼OLVHV DMXGD D HVFROKHU

GH VLPSOHVPHQWH IRUQHFHU LQIRUPD

JUDPD GDU DSRLR H WUHLQR QR ORFDO SDUD

RV HTXLSDPHQWRV D LQFOXLU QD

ÂÐHV E¼VLFDV VREUH D FRQGL¾R GRV

LPSOHPHQWDU RV VHWH SDVVRV QHFHVV¼

DPRVWUDJHP H D IUHTXÅQFLD GDV

OXEULILFDQWHV H HTXLSDPHQWRV )RL

ULRV DR FRUUHWR HVWDEHOHFLPHQWR GR

UHFROKDV $QWHV GH FRPHÂDU XP

SURMHWDGR SDUD VDWLVID]HU DV QHFHV

SURJUDPD M


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