By-election or general election - these four seats are crucial Cicero Group | October 2019 Introduction Following the election of four Irish TDs to the European Parliament in May, a series of national by-elections look set to take place in the coming weeks, and, unless the Taoiseach decides to take advantage of the likely Brexit ceasefire in the UK during an election, the date will be Friday 29th of November. While the writs have not been moved in the Dáil yet, the Taoiseach has stated that he intends to move them next week. The results of these by-elections are unlikely to affect the legislative arithmetic in the present Dáil – Fine Gael will continue to govern at the convenience of Fianna Fáil until such a time as either side is audacious enough to spark a general election. This political Mexican standoff is unlikely to end immediately, however, as neither side wants to be regarded as responsible for plunging the country into the sort of political disorder that has become commonplace across the Irish sea. Before we have clarity on Brexit, triggering an election campaign could be regarded as self-serving, and so could be costly politically.
A 2019 General Election? All bets are off post-Brexit of course. While Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has stated his preference for a calm transition period post-Brexit and a May 2020 election, he is facing intense pressure from backbenchers and cabinet members within his own party, who want to cash in on the immediate electoral benefits of having secured a new Brexit deal that does not impose a hard border. This pressure has only intensified in light of last week’s ‘VoteGate’ scandal, which saw two Fianna Fáil TD’s accused of misusing the Dáil’s electronic voting system, thereby damaging the opposition party’s approval ratings. Therefore, if a general election is called in the UK, it is conceivable that Varadkar may acquiesce to his party and call for a general election campaign before Christmas. In fact, the Taoiseach could well choose to not move the writs for the by-elections, and instead call a snap general election. Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil will be hoping to simply hold the by-elections now, perform well and reclaim some ground ahead of a general election in the Spring. They need the heat taken off ‘VoteGate’ to try and capitalise on their stance that they put the ‘country before party’ during the Brexit negotiations and swallowed austere budgets, a growing health crisis and overspends.
The By-Elections - A Useful Bellwether? Assuming that a General Election is not called first, what the upcoming by-elections may well do is serve as a useful bellwether of public opinion, leading both the main two parties and others to plan accordingly. Of course, byelections are in many ways different to standard elections, given the much higher quota, and thus the much greater Cicero Group | 1