The Queen's Speech 2019 - A Cicero Group Overview

THE QUEEN’S SPEECH 2019 - A CICERO GROUP OVERVIEW In one of the more bizarre spectacles of UK parliamentary process, the Queen has today delivered her speech announcing the Government’s new legislative agenda as part of the State Opening of Parliament.

In ordinary times, this Queen’s Speech would have happened months ago, following a marathon Parliamentary session which eventually ended at 2 years and 4 months. But we are not in ordinary times. With just 17 days to go until the UK is due to leave the European Union, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is entering a final crunch week of Brexit negotiations, seeking to persuade the EU to reach a deal ahead of the Council Summit on 17 and 18 October. If he succeeds, he must then work to convince MPs to vote for the deal on ‘super Saturday’ – the first sitting Saturday since the Falklands War. If he fails – either in negotiations with the EU or in passing his deal through Parliament - it is by this date he must request an extension to Article 50 to avoid a ‘no deal’ scenario, against his own wishes but forced by the hand of Parliament.

Against this backdrop and the fact that Johnson is currently operating without a working majority in Parliament, the Queen’s Speech presents a potential moment of danger for the Government. Voting it down will not in itself trigger a General Election as this must now be done through the provisions of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. But it will be of political significance as it would clearly call into the question the ability of the Government to command the confidence of Parliament, adding to the pressure on both the Government and Opposition to resolve the current impasse through a General Election.

THE QUEEN’S SPEECH 2019 - A CICERO GROUP OVERVIEW

Having said this, it seems unlikely that a loss on the Queen’s Speech will be what tips this Government over the edge. Having suffered a Supreme Court ruling that Johnson’s advice to the Queen on prorogation was unlawful, as well as the loss of seven consecutive votes in Parliament, another loss on the Queen’s Speech may be effectively priced in. Uncertainties remain over whether we will see a Brexit deal reached this week and what Parliament’s response to the outcome of negotiations will be, and it is these questions that will dictate the next steps, both in terms of likely timing for an election and the increasing possibility of a second referendum.

With that in mind, few believe that the legislative agenda set out today will be one for the long-term. As such, the speech can be viewed as an early preview of a Conservative election manifesto, rather than a serious attempt to present legislation that will make it on to the statute books.

Domestically, the speech included policies on crime, health and the environment – all reflecting the priorities Johnson has attempted to focus on since coming into office. Among the 26 Bills announced, measures include plans for tougher sentencing for violent offenders, legal targets for cutting plastic pollution, the outlawing of trophy hunting and plans for an independent NHS investigations body with legal powers to investigate “serious healthcare incidents”. There is also a long-awaited Pensions Bill that will introduce a new pensions dashboard and a new type of Collective Defined Contribution (CDC) pension scheme, and a commitment to reform adult social care in England, although with no legislation planned for this at this stage.

The Speech included the announcement of seven pieces of Brexit-related legislation, mostly comprising of repackaged versions of Brexit Bills that fell at the conclusion of the last session. The Immigration and Social Security Co-ordination Bill will end freedom of movement and bring in a points-based immigration system from 2021, while the Financial Services Bill, Trade Bill, Agriculture Bill and Fisheries Bill will set up new regulatory frameworks for each area. The EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill will implement any deal agreed in domestic law, and the new Private International Law (Implementation of Agreements) Bill will seek to ensure that those involved in international legal disputes have a clear framework for cross-border resolutions post Brexit.

Overall, today’s Queen’s Speech feels like an odd interlude in the political drama of our current time, before we turn our attention back to the outcome of Brexit negotiations. If Johnson wants to get moving on the domestic priorities reflected in the measures outlined today, then he must first resolve Brexit and find a working parliamentary majority again, be it through an olive branch to former colleagues or through the re-setting of the current parliamentary make up through an election.

Neither challenge looks easy, and one suspects it may be some while yet before we are back into ‘ordinary times’.

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LEGISLATION BEING RE-INTRODUCED BY THE GOVERNMENT Following the prorogation of Parliament announced in September, a number of Bills which were in the middle of their scrutiny ‘fell’ as the previous Parliamentary session concluded – with the Government choosing not to carry these over into the new Parliament. As such, several pieces of legislation have effectively been reintroduced.

These include:

Immigration and Social Security Co-ordination Bill

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Ends free movement, and makes EU citizens arriving after January 2021 subject to the same UK immigration controls as non-EU citizens. Clarifies the immigration status of Irish citizens once the free movement migration framework is repealed.

Brexit legislation? Yes

Agriculture Bill

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Reforms UK agriculture policy by replacing the current subsidy system, and supports farmers and land managers to ensure a smooth and gradual transition away from the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).

Brexit legislation? Yes

Fisheries Bill

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Delivers more sustainable fisheries for future generations building on the 25 Year Environment Plan and the Fisheries White Paper.

Brexit legislation? Yes

Trade Bill

THE QUEEN’S SPEECH 2019 - A CICERO GROUP OVERVIEW

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Rolls over trade agreements with third parties and ensures access to procurement opportunities under the Government Procurement Agreement, as well as protecting them from unfair trade practices or unforeseen surges in imports.

Brexit legislation? Yes

Financial Services Bill

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Ensures that the UK maintains its world-leading regulatory standards and remains open to international markets after the United Kingdom leaves the EU. Brexit legislation? Yes

NEW PIECES OF LEGISLATION In addition to reintroducing several pieces of legislation from the last Parliamentary session, the Government has also proposed a range of new Bills to be freshly introduced – relating both to its Brexit agenda, as well wider domestic initiatives. These include:

The European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill

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Implements any Withdrawal Agreement which may be agreed between the UK and the EU in domestic law.

Brexit legislation? Yes

Pension Schemes Bill

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Creates a legislative framework for the introduction of pensions dashboards to allow people to access their information from most pensions schemes in one place online for the first time and provide aframework for the establishment, operation and regulation of Collective Defined Contribution (CDC) schemes.

Brexit legislation? No Cicero Group | 2

Sentencing Bill

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Changing the automatic release point from halfway to the two-thirds point for adult offenders serving sentences of four years or more for serious violent or sexual offences, bringing this in line with the earliest release point for those considered to be dangerous.

Brexit legislation? No

Medicines and Medical Devices Bill

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Ensures that the UK remains at the forefront of the global life sciences industry after Brexit, giving patients faster access to innovative medicines and supporting the growth of our domestic sector.

Brexit legislation? Yes

Police Protections Bill

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Establishing a Police Covenant on a statutory footing, protecting police officers and ensuring that Parliament has the opportunity to scrutinise progress made against the Covenant.

Brexit legislation? No

NEXT STEPS •

THE QUEEN’S SPEECH 2019 - A CICERO GROUP OVERVIEW

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There will be up to six days of debate over different elements of the speech in the House of Commons, after which MPs will vote on the Speech, as well as any proposed amendments to it. The Queen’s Speech debates are as follows: • 15/10/19 – Britain’s Place in the World • 16/10/19 – Public Services • 21/10/19 – NHS • 22/10/19 – Economy The vote on the Queen’s Speech is expected next week. However, it is worth noting that the latter half of this week will be dominated by the ongoing Brexit negotiations. This includes the European Council Summit, which will take place between the 17th and 18th, as well as an expected Parliamentary session on Saturday 19th, following the Summit. The political fall-out from these events could impact the remainder of the Queen’s Speech debates and vote next week.

Get in touch...

If you would like to speak to the Cicero team about this document, or how we can support your organisation and its public affairs objectives in 2019, please do contact a member of the UK Public Affairs team below: Charlotte Adamson Senior Account Manager Tel: +44 (0)20 7947 5323 Charlotte.Adamson@cicero-group.com

Omar Rana Senior Account Executive Tel: +44 (0)20 7297 5962 Omar.Rana@cicero-group.com

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