EU ELECTIONS 2019 - THE VIEW FROM IRELAND All constituencies in Ireland, Midlands-North West, Dublin and Ireland South have completed their first counts. As of Tuesday morning, three candidates have been elected, Mairead McGuinness for Fine Gael, Frances Fitzgerald, also Fine Gael and Ciarán Cuffe, Green Party. Counting is ongoing and there is now a clearer picture of how the remaining seats in those constituencies are likely to be allocated. However, it must be noted that a legal row has erupted at the Dublin count centre as Barry Andrews, Fianna Fail and Clare Daly, Independents4Change, battle it out for the last certain seat and to avoid taking the extra "cold storage" seat created by Brexit. Based on these results it is possible to make a number of observations about voting trends in these elections in Ireland: Green wave Concern about climate change and biodiversity came up frequently on the doorsteps and in debates during the campaign and this is reflected in the high vote in favour of Green Party candidates. The party has secured a seat in Dublin, with Ciarán Cuffe topping the poll. It may fall short in the Midlands-North West constituency but has a good chance in Ireland South. This reflects a strong showing for Green parties across the EU and there will be a greater emphasis on environmental issues, especially climate change, in the next parliament. From an Irish perspective, it remains to be seen whether this level of support will translate in a general election, but one outcome is likely to be greater emphasis on environmental issues in the main parties going forward.
EU ELECTIONS 2019 - RESULTS
Pro-European candidates dominate Euro-sceptic candidates have performed well in several EU member states but that has not been replicated in Ireland. This is not surprising, with Irish voters regularly recording very high levels of support for the EU. While some candidates have criticised EU policies in certain areas, for instance in the area of defence spending, most have been careful to emphasise support for the ideal of European unity. Analysis The main governing party is likely to achieve a solid result in this election, with two candidates already returned and the possibility of four or five seats by the time all votes are counted. While this is good news for Fine Gael, it comes alongside disappointing results in the local election, which is arguably a better indication of how the party is perceived with voters. Francis Fitzgerald, the party’s candidate in Dublin, had been expected to top the poll but this went instead to the Green Party candidate. This reflects the position in the local election, where the Green Party attracted significant support away from Fine Gael across several constituencies in urban areas. While some claim the surge in Green Party support is an anomaly and is built on the recent high media profile of climate change activism in Ireland and elsewhere, it is interesting that the increase in support seems largely to have come at Fine Gael’s expense. Leo Varadkar was elected leader of Fine Gael as the candidate most likely to connect with voters and certainly in recent years he has projected an image of a modern, progressive leader in tune with changing social values in Ireland. However, the party’s economic policies, especially in areas such as housing, have shown to be more conservative and market driven, which may have alienated some voters. Voting patterns are likely to
www.ciceroelections.eu Results correct as of 13:00 GMT 28/05/19
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