EU elections 2019 - A Cicero Group overview

EU ELECTIONS 2019 - RESULTS The European Parliament has now released provisional or final national results published after voting has finished in all 28 Member States. What has emerged is - as expected - a fragmentation of European politics with the centre-right EPP and centre-left S&D losing their duopoly in Brussels to parties from both ends of the spectrum.

The Greens, liberals, nationalist/Eurosceptic and independent groups have all grown. The EPP/S&D combination can no longer form a pro-EU majority without ALDE or the Greens.

However, the pro-European centre-ground groups (EPP, S&D, ALDE and Greens) have managed to maintain an overall majority. The much talked-about surge in the far-right has not materialised to the extent feared. The EAPN/Salvini Alliance (former ENF) has done well, but along with the right-wing ECR, and 5-Star/Brexit party (former EFDD) they sit in 4th, 6th and 7th places respectively. This may help them gain Committee chair positions, but they are nowhere near a majority. Pro-Europeans will still dominate the Parliament.

Nevertheless, the fragmentation of the political spectrum means creating consensus in Committees over the next five years will be harder than before. Key policies in future may be blocked or delayed. Business will have to work harder to get traction across multiple political groups to have their positions reflected in the final legislation.

EU ELECTIONS 2019 - RESULTS

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT SEAT MAP

GUE/NGL

S&D

Greens/EFA

Source: Politico - Live election results

www.ciceroelections.eu

ALDE

New/Unaffiliated

EPP

ECR

EFDD

ENF

Data accurate as of 28 May 2019 - 09:00 (GMT)

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EU ELECTIONS 2019 - RESULTS ELECTORAL MAP This map of Europe shows the results per country for its three largest groups, correct as of 27 May 21.00 GMT. The number within the dots represent the number of elected MEPs. The colour of the country is determined by the country’s largest political group.

3 5

2

4

2

POLITICAL GROUPS

3 2 2

EU ELECTIONS 2019 - RESULTS

29 4 2 2

16 10

6

2 2

3 3 2

2 2 1

4

3 3 2

4

3 2

26

29

22

6 4

3

4 3

2

13 4

2

22 21 12

7 5 3 3 2

2

4

3

Alliance of Socialists & Democrats (S&D)

2

2

Alliance of Liberals & Democrats (ALDE) Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF)

3

20 16

European People's Party (EPP)

1

European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) 10

8

1 6

9 6 2

20 12 7

Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD)

8

5

Greens-European Free Alliance (EFA) European United Left–Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL)

3

28 18

7 6 2

14

New and Unaffiliated parties 2

2

1

4 2

www.ciceroelections.eu

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EU ELECTIONS 2019 - RESULTS WINNERS POLITICAL GROUP

EU ELECTIONS 2019 - RESULTS

+42

OUR ANALYSIS The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats have been the biggest winners from this election. Despite Macron’s En Marche losing to Le Pen’s Front Nationale by 1 seat, he has won a wider battle: French politics has been realigned under Macron, with the centre-right Les Républicains and centre-left Parti Socialiste sharing under 10% of the vote. Le Pen actually lost an MEP compared to 2014.

Macron now has a political group in Parliament to push his efforts to reform the EU, and ALDE looks set to be kingmakers – needed by the EPP and S&D to get a majority.

+15

The Greens’ win reflects increasing concern about climate change for voters across the EU and gives increased leverage in Parliament to affect EU legislation. It will also be difficult for EU leaders from the main political blocs to ignore the Greens when it comes to picking top EU jobs. With 20 additional seats, Philippe Lamberts, Belgian co-leader of the Greens, called his party's role “indispensable” in a future pro-EU majority in the parliament.

+35

The Eurosceptic alliance EAPN led by Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini will be the fourth biggest group in the European Parliament, representing a more unified nationalist/right bloc than the European Parliament has seen before. However, while Salvini has triumphed in Italy, the success has not spread across Europe to the extent some feared. While now they are a coherent force in Parliament and could throw their weight around to some effect, they will have to choose their battles carefully.

Democratic legitimacy (voter turnout up 9%)

Greater publicity and media coverage, driven by political flux across the EU (including Brexit), has pushed voter turnout upwards reaching 51% - the highest in two decades and the first time it has climbed. However, numbers varied widely from 73% in Malta to just 23% in Slovakia. Despite Brexit, turnout was just 37% in the UK. The democratic deficit remains unevenly distributed.

LOSERS POLITICAL GROUP -38

-39

www.ciceroelections.eu

OUR ANALYSIS The EPP remains the largest group but has lost a significant number of seats, cutting into its traditionally dominant role in the European Parliament. The EPP will now become just one piece, albeit the largest one, of a Parliamentary coalition needed to pass legislation. On top of the poor performance, the EPP’s narrow margin over the S&D unexpectedly hands power to Victor Orbán’s Fidesz party – who could now push the EPP into second place should they leave the group.

Despite doing well in Spain and the Netherlands, poor performance for socialist parties in France, Germany and elsewhere has had a strong impact on the S&D’s size in the European Parliament. The UK’s participation in the European Elections softens the blow with Labour bolstering their numbers by 10 MEPs – but only until Brexit happens. The S&D will lose their dominance but will remain part of any pro-EU majority.

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EU ELECTIONS 2019 - RESULTS COALITIONS GRAND LIBERAL COALITION

SHARE OF SEATS GRAND LIBERAL COALITION: S&D: 148

EPP: 180

ALDE: 111

LEFTIST LIBERAL ALLIANCE: S&D: 148

G/EFA: 67

GUE/ ALDE: 111 NGL: 40

LEFTIST LIBERAL ALLIANCE

ENF/EAPN: 71

EFDD: 44

EU ELECTIONS 2019 - RESULTS

Number of MEPs

Majority: 376

UNITED RIGHT: ECR: 59

Balancing on the centre of the political barometer, ALDE is seen as kingmaker – needed for the most likely pro-European alliances. An EPP, S&D and ALDE coalition can result in a comfortable majority of over 400 seats. Friction may be caused by the S&D and ALDE’s scepticism of the EPP’s traditionally dominant position in the European Union.

During the Parliament’s main Spitzenkandidaten debate, S&D Candidate Frans Timmermans pushed for a left-wing/liberal alliance to overcome the EPP’s traditional monopoly of the EU’s leadership. Such an alliance may appeal to French President Emmanuel Macron. Yet, with strong differences between the far-left GUE/NGL whose support would be required, and their pro-European counterparts, forming a leftist alliance may prove difficult.

UNITED RIGHT While falling short of a majority, a United Right-Wing bloc could pose a strong counterweight to the otherwise predominantly pro-European political groups. Despite similarities such as scepticism of EU membership, a coalition would be unlikely to succeed due to strong differences on key policy issues. For instance, on Russian sanctions Salvini and Rassemblement National’s Marine Le Pen are in favour of cutting all sanctions, while Poland’s Law and Justice Party are strongly against.

NEXT COMMISSION PRESIDENT Any Commission President will need a minimum of 376 votes to secure the absolute majority needed in the Parliament. The pro-EU parties hold around two-thirds of seats but abstentions, no-shows, UK and Hungarian MEPs all need to be factored in. Any of three possible coalitions below would secure sufficient votes to appoint the President but it will involve horse-trading for other top EU jobs up for grabs, such as the President of the Council and the President of the Parliament: •

Jumbo coalition (EPP, Socialists, Liberals, Greens): 506 MEPs

•

The three biggest political groups (EPP, Socialists, Liberals): 436 MEPs

•

Liberals edged out (EPP, Socialists, Greens): 399 MEPs

www.ciceroelections.eu

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EU ELECTIONS 2019 - RESULTS WEBER'S CHANCES FADING The lead candidate for the biggest party, Manfred Weber, of the EPP has called for the main pro-EU parties to rally behind the idea that the Commission job must go to a Spitzenkandidat. However, the EPP’s losses and vocal opposition to the Spitzenkandidat process from some governments, including France, means the appointment of the Commission President will be far less straightforward than in 2014. En Marche were quick to react with French MEP Pascal Canfin declaring that they now see Manfred Weber as “completely disqualified” by the election results.

BARNIER A STRONG CONTENDER Macron has made comments indicating his support for fellow Frenchman Michel Barnier for the Presidency. Given ALDE’s potential role as kingmaker in the new Parliament, Barnier could come out as a good compromise with the EPP – his political group. As the largest group, the EPP's backing will still be needed to confirm any candidate for Commission President.

POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR DELAY

EU ELECTIONS 2019 - RESULTS

Unlike past years, this year could see significant delays to the appointment the next European Commission with Brussels chatter indicating earliest January unlike October/November in previous years.

If you would like to speak to the Cicero team about this document, or how we can support your organisation and its public affairs objectives in 2019, please do contact a member of the Brussels team: Helena Walsh Executive Director BXL: +32 2 612 8152 Helena.Walsh@cicero-group.com

www.ciceroelections.eu

Robert Langmuir Account Director BXL: +32 2 612 8153 Robert.Langmuir@cicero-group.com

Eóghain Mitchison Account Manager +32 2 612 8154 Eoghain.Mitchison@cicero-group.com

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