EU elections 2019 - Which parties are leading in the polls?

EU ELECTIONS 2019 - WHICH PARTIES ARE LEADING IN THE POLLS?

EU ELECTIONS 2019 - WHICH PARTIES ARE LEADING IN THE POLLS? On the brink of the European elections, held within each of the 28 EU Member State between 23 and 26 May, Cicero’s EU team has reviewed the latest predictions to present an overview of likely winners, losers and potential alliances.

This year’s elections are almost certain to leave the Parliament more fragmented than ever, as they are expected to follow the cross-European trend of declining support for the traditionally mainstream political groups with voters instead shifting further left and right. A long-standing coalition between the two largest groups, the Christian democratic European People’s Party (EPP) and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) is no longer expected to be sufficient to form a majority, meaning they will be dependent on their cooperation with other political groups – including for the election of the next Commission President.

At the same time, the increased fragmentation may slow down decision-making in the Parliament and heightens the possibility of future legislation being blocked.

While the pro-European block is expected to remain the largest, the stronger representation of populist and Eurosceptic political groups means legislation proposing further European integration will be more difficult to pass through the Parliament’s committees and plenary.

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT SEAT PROJECTION

751 GUE/NGL

S&D

Greens/EFA

ALDE

EPP

ECR

EFDD

Source: Europe Elects - Live-Projection: EU Election Result

Get in touch: Helena.Walsh@cicero-group.com | www.ciceroelections.eu

ENF/EAPN

NI/Unaffiliated

POLITICAL GROUP

2014 ELECTION RESULT

21 MAY 2019 (PROJECTION)

SEAT CHANGE

EPP

221

173

-48

S&D

191

152

-39

ALDE

67

109

+42

ENF/EAPN

37

82

+45

ECR

70

59

-11

Greens/EFA

50

59

+4

Unaffiliated

0

53

+30

GUE/NGL

52

51

-1

NI

15

13

-2

EFDD

48

0

-48 Cicero Group | 1

EU ELECTIONS 2019 - WHICH PARTIES ARE LEADING IN THE POLLS?

EU ELECTIONS 2019 - WHICH PARTIES ARE LEADING IN THE POLLS? WINNERS POLITICAL GROUP

OUR ANALYSIS

+45

The Eurosceptic alliance, EAPN, led by Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini may become the fourth biggest group in the European Parliament, representing a more unified populist bloc than the European Parliament has seen before.

While absorbing the ENF group, the EAPN will also take on members from the Conservative ECR and the populist EFDD – likely causing the latter to cease to exist. The merging of parties combined with the continuously growing support for the populist parties across Europe will likely result in significant gains for Salvini’s alliance.

+42

The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) is expected to gain a significant number of seats in the elections, in large part due to an alliance with French President Emmanuel Macron’s ‘République En Marche’ party, likely to contribute around 20 seats alone. The price of this alliance for ALDE is a rebranding exercise and likely change in leadership, with the head of the En Marche list, Natalie Loiseau, a contender to lead the new liberal coalition. With strong performances of liberal-democratic parties in other Member States anticipated, ALDE is expected to become the Parliament’s third biggest party and will be looking to play kingmaker in the appointment of top EU jobs.

+4

With climate change an increasingly important topic for voters across the EU, the Greens are expected to perform better than ever before at the European elections. Across Northern Europe, Green parties have increased their influence in national and local government, often to the detriment of other leftist parties. While remaining one of the smaller parties in the European Parliament, they will likely benefit from the expected fragmentation which may give them an essential role in alliance-forming.

LOSERS POLITICAL GROUP

OUR ANALYSIS

-48

-39

While predicted to keep its position as the Parliament’s largest political group, the EPP is expected to lose a significant number of seats, cutting into its traditionally dominant role in the European Parliament. On top of the poor performance of several of its largest parties including Germany’s CDU, the expected split with Victor Orbán’s Fidesz party will negatively impact the EPP’s position.

Poor performance of socialist parties in France, Italy and Poland will likely have a strong impact on the S&D’s size in the European Parliament. The UK’s participation in the European Elections softens the blow with Labour polled to win around 20% of UK votes, but the S&D is still expected to take a big hit, losing around 20% of its seats.

Get in touch: Helena.Walsh@cicero-group.com | www.ciceroelections.eu

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COALITIONS

SHARE OF SEATS

GRAND LIBERAL COALITION

GRAND LIBERAL COALITION: S&D: 152

EPP: 173

ALDE: 109

LEFTIST LIBERAL ALLIANCE: S&D: 152

G/EFA: 59

GUE/ NGL: 51

ALDE: 109

UNITED RIGHT: ECR: 59

ENF/EAPN: 82

NI/Unaffil: 66 Number of MEPs

Majority: 376

EU ELECTIONS 2019 - WHICH PARTIES ARE LEADING IN THE POLLS?

EU ELECTIONS 2019 - WHICH PARTIES ARE LEADING IN THE POLLS?

Balancing on the centre of the political barometer, ALDE is seen as kingmaker – needed for the most likely pro-European alliances. An EPP, S&D and ALDE coalition can result in a comfortable majority of over 400 seats. Friction may be caused by the S&D and ALDE’s scepticism of the EPP’s traditionally dominant position in the European Union, meaning they will be reluctant to lend their support to Spitzenkandidat Manfred Weber.

Commission President: With the EPP expected to be the largest party, it will try to push for Manfred Weber’s adoption but may struggle to find a majority. As a compromise, the Council may present an alternative candidate such as EU Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier.

LEFTIST LIBERAL ALLIANCE During the Parliament’s main Spitzenkandidaten debate, S&D Candidate Frans Timmermans pushed for a left-wing/liberal alliance to overcome the EPP’s traditional monopoly of the EU’s leadership, which would only just fall short of a majority. Considering his opposition to the EPP, such alliance may appeal to French President Emmanuel Macron. Yet, with strong differences between the far-left Eurosceptic GUE/NGL whose support would be required, and their pro-European counterparts, forming a leftist alliance may prove difficult.

Commission President: S&D’s Frans Timmermans would seem the most likely candidate, with the S&D being the biggest party in this alliance. He would likely face competition from current competition minister and member of ALDE, Margrethe Verstager, and the alliance may fall short of securing a majority.

UNITED RIGHT While falling short of a majority, a United Right-Wing bloc could pose a strong counterweight to the otherwise predominantly pro-European political groups. Despite similarities such as scepticism of EU membership, a coalition would be unlikely to succeed due to strong differences on key policy issues. For example, Salvini and Rassemblement National's Marine Le Pen are in favour of cutting all EU-Russian sanctions, a position that Poland’s Law and Justice Party is strongly against.

ELECTION RESULTS After conclusion of the elections on 26 May, a first exit poll will be published by the European Parliament around 23:15 CET, with official results becoming final throughout June. EU Leaders will come together on 28 May for a special Council Summit to discuss the election results and take first steps in assigning the top roles.

Get in touch: Helena.Walsh@cicero-group.com | www.ciceroelections.eu

Cicero Group | 3