Risk-based principles for defining and managing water security

Environmental Change Institute

Risk-based principles for defining and managing water security Jim Hall Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford

We think of water predominantly in terms of risks

Conference Survey: Understanding water-related risks from the perspectives of science, policy, business and civil society

Extreme natural events tend to achieve an exceptional convergence of awareness on the part of major and minor water users, as well as on the part of policy makers, legislators and of influential agents, such as the media.

Tony Allan, 1999 “A risk society analysis of regional problemsheds and global hydrologies�

Adaptation to water risks

Flood losses and flood control investment in Japan Japan Water Forum, 2005

During the period from 2001 to 2006, losses amounted to about 1% of GDP for middle-income countries, while this ratio has been about 0.3% of GDP for low-income countries and less than 0.1% of GDP for high-income countries IPPC SREX

Recalibrating flood risk in the Netherlands

Formalisation of risk methodology

Key Probability of Inundation Low Risk of Inundation (not flooded by 200yr event) Medium Risk of Inundation (flooded by 200yr event) High Risk of Inundation (flooded by 75yr event)

Obstacles to a risk-based version of water security §

Framing decisions in risk-based terms

Obstacles to a risk-based version of water security § §

Framing decisions in risk-based terms Non-stationarity

2020s 2050s

Obstacles to a risk-based version of water security § § §

Framing decisions in risk-based terms Non-stationarity Incorporating the trade-offs Reasons for not following EA advice on development in floodplains

Obstacles to a risk-based version of water security § § § §

Framing decisions in risk-based terms Non-stationarity Incorporating the trade-offs Integrating across scales

Vorosmarty et al., 2010

Trade in virtual water Water security threat

Risk-based principles for defining and managing water security §

Framing decisions in risk-based terms: Focussing upon the range of possible observable outcomes that are associated with alternative actions

§

Non-stationarity: Testing plausible classes of non-stationary (and stationary) models and associated uncertainties

§

Incorporating the trade-offs: Articulation of objectives and valuation of risks for a full range of actors

§

Integrating across scales:

Endogenising externalities at appropriate scales

Need a coalition of science, policy and business which develops and operationalises common risk-based principles for water security.

Environmental Change Institute

jim.hall@eci.ox.ac.uk http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/