Chicago Policy Review 2024

CHICAGO POLICY REVIEW

THE POLICY PUZZLE

Interconnected Pieces Shaping the Policy Landscape

TO THE READER

PALLAVI SIDDHANTA DIRECTOR OF PRINT PUBLICATIONS

The Chicago Policy Review’s spring 2024 edition is equal parts labor and love. The annual publication gives us an opportunity to shine a light on our student staff writers, while focusing on policy pieces that form a robust body of grounded, solution-oriented academic policy writing. Our vision for this edition was to forge a return to Chicago Policy Review’s roots as an academic publication. As we pored over the articles from this academic year, and reviewed all of the brilliant research and analyses our staff had produced, we kept gravitating towards the idea of an authentic and accessible journal that spotlights the policy thought leadership from our writers. While their policy interests and expertise are all varied, the interconnectedness of policy decisions weave seamlessly into the landscape around us. With that, I leave you, the reader, to dig into each piece in its fullness, and engage with the diverse perspectives that shape our understanding of global policy challenges and solutions.

MASTHEAD

2023 - 2024

COPY EDITORS

Margot Bond, Lead

Justine Silverstein, Lead

Aishwarya Sivaramakrishnan, Lead

Alana Thompson, Lead

Kayla Wang, Lead

Lizzy Diaz

Madeleine Greene

Natalia McCormick

Alex Mull-Dreyer

Isabel Rayborn

Alero Simon

Max Wagner

ADVISING FACULT

David Chrisinger

Isabeau Dasho

Matthew Flemming

Dr. Nichole Horn

EXECUTIVE BOARD

Caroline Collins

Editor-in-Chief

Emma Kortebein

Executive Editor

Max Padilla

Executive Editor

Danya Sherbini

Executive Editor

Megan Sanders

Director of Digital Publications

Pallavi Siddhanta

Director of Print Publications

Ivanna Rodriguez & Yufei Liu

Directors of Data Visualizations

Nico Johnson

Director of Learning and Development

Natalie Reyes

Director of Communications and Engagement

SENIOR EDITORS

Xerac Akhtar

Purushottam Bhandare

Mithila Iyer

Aarushi Kataria

Alex Kroger

Mariam Raheem

Divyansha Sehgal

Soumya Singhal

Neil Stein

Erin Straight

PRINT EDITION TEAM

Purushottam Bhandare

Margot Bond

Lizzy Diaz

Madeleine Greene

Alex Kroger

Uchenna Offorjebe

Divyansha Sehgal

Justine Silverstein

Soumya Singhal

Alana Thompson

Trey Pennington

Max Wagner

FOREWORD

KATE SHANNON BIDDLE DEAN OF STUDENTS

UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO HARRIS SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY

As the Dean of Students at Harris Public Policy, one of the most fulfilling aspects of my role is witnessing the profound influence our students make on policy, both during their time here and beyond graduation. In Harris students, we see the real promise of the future of policy – a combination of adept, analytical prowess; genuine empathy and humility, insatiable curiosity, and an indefatigable work ethic, all underscored by an unwavering commitment to bettering our world.

Within the pages of this journal, you will encounter a manifestation of these virtues and more. The student staff members to the Chicago Policy Review (CPR) undertake this work on top of their considerable academic demands, compensated only by the opportunity to learn about and most importantly, contribute to the most important policy questions of the day. In case you missed that subtle reference, they are doing this incredible work for free!

The caliber of work that the student writers and editors of the Review produce is impressive in any context, but all the more so for the fact that it is one of many things pulling on their time and brain power.

I hope you will enjoy the articles in this year’s collection and that they serve as inspiration to dig in, do the hard work, and effect tangible change. I am proud of Harris students every day, and when you read these pieces I am sure you will see why.

Editor’s Note

CARRIE COLLINS EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

Welcome to this year’s edition of the Chicago Policy Review. As we unveil our latest collection of insights and analyses, I invite you to join us in reflecting on the balancing act that is policymaking, and its profound impact across the globe.

This year, we return to our roots, embracing our foundational ethos as an academic journal committed to the highest standards of policy thought leadership. Our guiding theme, “the policy puzzle,” reflects a renewed focus on the interconnectedness of our endeavors. Each piece of work, though complete in its own rigorous inquiry and examination, is a piece of a much larger picture—a tapestry of policy impacts weaving through the fabric of societies worldwide.

A single policy decision can send ripples across the globe, influencing lives far beyond our immediate horizon. This global resonance is at the heart of our theme. It underscores a shared experience in the benefits and consequences of policymaking, allowing us to connect with and understand the narratives of those we may never meet. Our contributors’ diverse perspectives and deep analyses highlight this interconnectedness, demonstrating how localized policies can resonate on a global scale.

Arnoldo Ayala’s piece focuses on a policy imperative happening on the streets of Chicago, while Max Padilla’s interview with Governor Mark Gordon of Wyoming examines the future of rural America. Grant Castle’s contribution dives into the inner workings of the European Union, as Joshilyn Binkley details the landscape of food aid policy, concentrating on Egypt as a case study. These articles span the globe, and differ strongly in their policy concentrations. But each intrinsically represents the driving force behind this year’s publication: policy issues are difficult and complex, but through our individual parts, we are able to create a broader body of work that operates in solidarity with each other’s goals.

Leading the Chicago Policy Review has been the joy of my policy career thus far, and I could not be more proud of the contributions of our staff. Thank you for your support of our publication. Your engagement and thoughtful dialogue play an essential role in solving the ever-evolving policy puzzle before us.

Contents

Beyond Borders & Budgets: Chicago’s Path to Compassion Amidst the Migrant Crisis

Arnoldo Ayala

The Future of Food Aid: Looking at the Egypt Case

Joshilyn Binkley

Chicago’s Path to Fairer Elections: Embracing Ranked Choice

Voting

Jeffrey Bittle

The Rise of Digital Lending

Richard Campo

The EU’s Democracy Challenge - & Opportunity

Grant Castle

Teachers Wanted: Nationwide Staffing Crisis Impacts Illinois

Madeleine Greene

Simmons on Implementing the Nation’s First Government-Funded Reparations Program

Nico Johnson

No Adult Left Behind: Automation, Job Loss, and Education Policy

Phillip Klafta

The Future of Medicare Drug Price Negotiation and Pharmaceutical Innovation

Lucas Miller

Governor Mark Gordon on Rural America, Climate Policy, and the Future of Wyoming

Max Padilla

Government Shutdown Worries the Military - for Good Reason

Trey Pennington

Bankrupt Ballcarriers? How NFL Policy Helps Limit

Running Back Earnings

Will Pennington

We Don’t Need More ‘Terror on Repeat’

Megan Sanders and David Chrisinger

America Is Leading the Global Arms Trade, but at What Cost?

Anonymous

Beyond Borders & Budgets: Chicago’s Path to Compassion Amidst the Migrant Crisis

In recent months, Chicago has been at the epicenter of a significant humanitarian challenge. Over 35,000 migrants. Over 35,000 migrants have arrived in the city since August 2022, many on buses from Texas. This influx has stretched the city’s resources thin, particularly its shelter system, which is struggling to accommodate the increasing numbers of inhabitants. As the migrant crisis intensifies, the plight of these individuals, who have embarked on perilous journeys seeking refuge and a better life, becomes even more pressing.

To understand the migrant crisis in Chicago, it is essential to recognize the diverse and often harrowing backgrounds of the individuals we refer to as ‘migrants.’ Many are asylum seekers and refugees. Many are asylum seekers and refugees compelled to leave their homes due to conflict, persecution, or severe economic distress. Their migration is a pursuit of safety and stability, making the U.S. a beacon of hope.

These individuals, with their distinct stories and aspirations, are not just seeking refuge, but also opportunities to contribute to the socioeconomic fabric of the city.

Integration, in this context, is the process through which migrants become part of the social, economic, and cultural life in Chicago. This entails ensuring equitable access to education, employment, and healthcare, alongside fostering mutual respect and cultural exchange between migrants and the local community. The success of integration is crucial for migrants to transition from seeking refuge to becoming contributing members of society.

The socioeconomic context of these migrants is multifaceted, embodying both potential benefits and significant challenges for Chicago. Not all migrants are the same and should not be treated as a monolith, but instead should be considered carefully on a case-by-case basis depending on their needs. While they bring valuable skills and resilience, their successful integration hinges on the city’s capacity to provide necessary resources and empathetic, tailored policies.

Recognizing the individuality and potential of each migrant is crucial in shaping a response that is not only compassionate but also pragmatic. It is about transforming the humanitarian impulse into structured support, ensuring that the narrative of each migrant is one of dignity, growth, and meaningful contribution to the city’s diverse and dynamic community.

ARNOLDO AYALA

Under Mayor Brandon Johnson’s administration, the city committed $150 million in 2024 for migrant care. Yet, there are looming concerns that this substantial budget could be depleted before year-end, a testament to the enormity of the crisis at hand. As city shelters reach capacity, with nearly 12,300 individuals within their walls and over 2,400 others waiting in police stations and at O’Hare International Airport, the financial strain on Chicago is undeniable. With ongoing discussion regarding a 60-day limit in shelters, insecurities in housing and resources for these migrants continue to create potential future issues for the city.

Not only does this situation underscore the urgent need for additional support and funding, but also highlights the city’s dependency on broader state-level interventions and federal assistance. The financial challenges faced by Chicago are symptomatic of broader budgetary issues confronting many U.S. cities. In Chicago’s case, the city’s fiscal year 2023 budget was already stretched thin, grappling with a significant deficit exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic-related economic crisis, with migrant care further limiting the city’s financial resources. According to the Civic Federation’s analysis of the city’s budget, the gap necessitates not just local but also state and federal intervention to ensure fiscal stability and address humanitarian needs without compromising other essential services.

The lack of action by the state and federal governments exacerbates the situation. Despite repeated calls from city officials for increased support, the response has been tepid.

Not only does this inaction result in insufficient financial support for the city, but also represents a missed opportunity for comprehensive policy-making

It undermines the efforts of cities like Chicago to manage the crisis effectively while also highlighting the need for a more robust partnership between all levels of government.

While the city’s stance remains firmly welcoming, the financial implications of this crisis cannot be overlooked. The funds allocated for migrant care are not just numbers on a budget sheet; they represent the city’s commitment to human dignity and the collective welfare of its residents—both established and newly arrived. However, this financial burden is not one that Chicago can, or should, bear alone. It is a national issue that calls for a coordinated response, integrating state and federal resources to share the responsibility equitably. With limited funding and a lack of support from both federal and state governments, Chicago can only handle so much in its already incredibly tight budget. Unfortunately, with neither Springfield nor Washington D.C. looking to take on this issue, the City of Chicago has had to bear the responsibility, with states like Texas and Florida choosing to use state money for anything but resources for their constituents.

The financial aspect of this crisis extends beyond immediate shelter and basic needs. It encompasses the broader economic integration of migrants, a process that involves securing work permits and job

needs. It encompasses the broader economic integration of migrants, a process that involves securing work permits and job placements and ensuring access to education and healthcare

These are not just humanitarian gestures but strategic investments in the future of the community and the economy at large. Migrants bring with them a wealth of diverse experiences, skills, and cultural perspectives that, if nurtured, can contribute significantly to the socioeconomic fabric of the city.

However, the path to such integration is fraught with challenges, not least of which is the need for a sustainable financial strategy. The city’s approach, including the imposition of fines on non-compliant bus companies and the deployment of additional resources to manage migrant arrivals, indicates a move towards a more structured and financially prudent management of the situation. Yet, these measures alone are not sufficient. There is a pressing need for a more comprehensive, long-term strategy that not only addresses the immediate financial implications but also lays the groundwork for the successful integration of migrants into society.

The current migrant situation in Chicago is a stark reminder of the broader global challenges of displacement and migration.

As the city navigates this complex crisis, the path forward must be paved with empathy, pragmatism, and a collaborative spirit. The financial implications are indeed significant, but they should not

overshadow the fundamental human values that underpin our society. This crisis presents not just a challenge but also an opportunity—to demonstrate resilience, to foster community, and to reaffirm our commitment to being a sanctuary for those in need. As we move forward, let us ensure that our strategies are not just financially sound but also morally grounded, embodying the very ideals of humanity and solidarity that define us as a community.

The Future of Food Aid: Looking at the Egypt Case

JOSHILYN BINKLEY

Over two years have passed since Russia invaded Ukraine, beginning a conflict that has had profound effects on human and economic well-being around the world. A record 349 million people across 79 countries currently face acute food insecurity–this is an increase of 200 million people compared to pre-pandemic levels. Russia and Ukraine are key players in the international export of wheat, sunflower oil, and fertilizers, and the conflict has led to a global food crisis that has left millions facing severe malnutrition. The war’s disruptions to the global wheat supply chains have severely impacted Egypt, and there is enormous potential for the U.S. to improve the lives of the country’s citizens and further the political impetus behind Ukraine through strategic investment in Egypt’s agriculture and food financing. This analysis serves to inform policymakers on what the future of food aid might look; particularly in a world with growing pressures on food supplies due to climate change and conflict, Egypt is an interesting case to consider.

Since the 1940s, Egypt’s government has coordinated a bread subsidy program, through which half of the country’s total wheat is consumed and which uses three quarters of total imports. Bread is a staple in the Egyptian diet, accounting for up to 40 percent of caloric intake: citizens consume double the global average

amount of wheat per capita. This well-established program is under considerable strain as the government struggles to obtain enough wheat to meet demand as supply shrinks and prices soar.

Egyptians are some of the world’s largest consumers of wehat, but as domestic production can’t keep pace with population growth, they are the world’s greatest importer.

The conflict has shrunk available wheat supplies and has made transporting goods significantly more expensive. Egypt is paying more to ship wheat from farther away. Egyptians are some of the world’s largest consumers of wheat, but as their domestic production can’t keep pace with population growth, they are the world’s greatest importer. Despite attempts to diversify their sources, Egypt still gets over 70 percent of its wheat from exporters around the Black Sea area. They are just one of 50 countries that rely on Russia and Ukraine for at least 30 percent of their wheat imports, according to the United Nations.

As wheat imports have become more difficult to obtain, there has been an effort to increase domestic production. The government is the only purchaser of wheat grown in the country, having prohibited selling to private markets or exporting, but domestic production is

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only able to meet the needs of five months of subsidized bread production. The Egyptian government returned to some of the agricultural controls that were phased out with neoliberal reforms in the 1980s: there are now quotas for minimum amounts of wheat that had to be sold to the government per acre, mandatory crop allocation, and additional monetary incentives for farmers.

Fertilizers and other agri-tech solutions are key to increasing Egypt’s domestic production, especially given the country’s growing vulnerabilities as an arid climate due to climate change. The U.S. Intelligence Community has called attention to political vulnerabilities due to volatile states playing an essential role in providing inputs necessary for agriculture. In their 2015 Community Assessment on Global Food Security they noted, “large exportable supplies of key components of food production—such as phosphates, potash, and fuel oil—come from states where conflict or government actions could cause supply chain disruptions that lead to price spikes.” Russia and their ally, Belarus, are key fertilizer suppliers and their costs have doubled since 2020.

Modern agriculture in Egypt’s arid

climate is highly dependent on fertilizers to support production and the spike in its cost is quickly felt in the Egyptian market. The cost of domestic cereal production has increased in Egypt due to sharp rises in fertilizer costs.

Americans and Egyptians have been successfully working together towards agritech solutions for nearly three decades. Since 1995 the U.S.-Egypt Science and Technology Joint Fund has supported high-impact research between the two countries and led to innovations such as antimicrobial textiles, more efficient solar panels, and increased wheat and citrus yields with lower fertilizer usage. Last year at COP27 the U.S. committed another four million dollars to focus developments on in health, agriculture, energy, and water tech. Grants from this fund promote cooperation and progress in areas of mutual interest and the benefits have had an impact that extends beyond the two nations to societies around the world.

The U.S. also has significant history of trade and investment in Egyptian agriculture. Egypt is the United States’ largest export market in Africa, with an emphasis on goods like wheat and corn.

Americans’ economic involvement in the country includes substantial aid for security and development projects, for example since 1978 over half a million farmers have increased their incomes due to American technical assistance.

The current impacts of Russia’s war in Ukraine on Egypt demand greater investment

Thus far the response by multilateral organizations, the U.S. government, and our allies can be characterized by historic financial and political commitments to those under threat and in need. In May, the G7 leaders initiated the Global Alliance for Food Security. In July, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) announced a record $200 million commitment from the U.S. to increase children’s access to malnutrition treatment. Throughout the previous year the U.S. made multiple increases to funding to the World Food Program, amounting to a historic $7.2 billion in funding, a $3.4 billion increase over 2021. The Egyptian government signed a $500 million loan agreement with the World Bank and a $3 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). These loans will finance wheat imports, support national efforts to reduce waste in the supply chain, and sustainably increase domestic production.

Foreign assistance for food aid is usually spent in one of two ways; on investments in agricultural productivity or humanitarian assistance in the form of physical food shipments. This past year a third option has emerged: supporting food-insecure

countries in their efforts to cover climbing costs to importing food in response to food shocks. In early 2022, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization proposed a Food Import Financing Facility (FIFF) to do just this. The Food Shock Window Program was approved in September 2022, initially for twelve months, to lend money, provide technical assistance, and advise on policy. The strength of the program is that it is designed for rapid response balance of payment needs when upper credit tranche (UCT)-quality programs are not feasible.

Egypt is likely to benefit from this third type of assistance model because they have experienced significant currency devaluation relative to the U.S. dollar. In late 2022, hundreds of thousands of tons of wheat were sitting in ports due to a shortage of foreign currency in Egypt. The country has an established, robust state-coordinated food subsidy program and therefore a clear mechanism for distributing aid. It also already has a heavy reliance on imports making this form of support more critical for Egypt.

Countering Russia’s significant influence in the global agricultural sphere, while also working to alleviate the food crisis, will take a sustained commitment to strategic diplomatic partnerships and supporting food systems in insecure countries. Egypt is experiencing challenges in feeding its citizens because they are highly dependent on wheat and fertilizer imports from both Russia and Ukraine. Yet, the U.S. and Egypt food aid policy successfully navigates this issue by leveraging effective aid financing.

Chicago’s Path to Fairer Elections: Embracing Ranked-Choice Voting

JEFFREY BITTLE

In early 2023, Chicago witnessed an animated local election season with no shortage of personal attacks, stark ideological differences, and drama typical of the city’s politics. However, like many other Chicago voters, I had a difficult time choosing a candidate. With nine major contenders, it was always unlikely that one would receive a majority of the votes cast in the first round. When this occurs in Chicago, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff elect-

ion to determine the ultimate winner. The system has a major impact on voters’ calculations in the first round. Is it better to vote for the candidate you would most like to win, or should you support your most preferred candidate of those with a realistic chance of making the runoff? For less high-profile races, this information may not even be readily available; there were no public polls on most aldermanic races last spring. Reasonable minds can disagree on the right answer to this

question, but it remains a constraint on voter decisions.

It would be foolish, however, to pretend there aren’t better alternatives to the tworound system currently utilized in Chicago. There are multiple well-tested voting systems that allow people to express a wider array of preferences. Instant-runoff voting, the most common type of rankedchoice voting, is the option that makes the most sense for Chicago. Under this system, voters would no longer choose just one candidate for each office on their ballot. Rather, they would numerically rank each of the available options (or as many as they wish to include). Results are then tallied in a series of rounds; the candidate ranked first by the fewest people is eliminated, and their votes are transferred to the voters’ second-choice candidates. That process continues until a single candidate can amass a majority of the votes cast.

Under the prevailing system of elections in the U.S., candidates are incentivized to consolidate ideological or demographic blocs of support. This is a natural part of building a winning coalition of voters. A conservative candidate, for example, may attempt to drive other conservatives out of the race by maximizing their appeal to a base of activists, carrying them to victory in a primary election. In practice, this can leave voters with only one candidate who both represents their views and has a realistic chance to win. Even early in a campaign, candidates who don’t garner enough support can be dubbed “spoilers.” They risk taking votes from ideologically similar rivals, increasing the chance that someone with wildly different policy preferences could win the election.

There are numerous domestic examples of this occurring. Many pundits attribute Al Gore’s loss in the 2000 presidential election to Ralph Nader’s presence in the race. In a 2008 US Senate election, Democrat Al Franken narrowly bested his Republican opponent, but an analysis from Time found that the strong showing from an independent likely changed the outcome. In the 2014 Maine gubernatorial election, independent candidate Eliot Cutler’s vote share was greater than the margin between the two major party candidates, leading the Republican candidate to win without a majority of votes. The principal benefit of instant-runoff voting is how it changes these incentives. People can rank their true preference first without the fear of helping their least preferred candidate win.

The strategic decision-making required under the current election system makes the information captured by elections quite noisy. People’s votes may not reflect their true policy preferences, but rather their choice between binary options. Sometimes, the action that seems like an optimal strategy just isn’t. For example, the politically progressive “lane” in this past mayoral election was occupied by two major candidates: County Commissioner Brandon Johnson and Congressman Jesús “Chuy” García (with Rep. Kam Buckner pulling some votes as well). Ultimately, only Johnson made the runoff. However, García initially seemed to be the frontrunner. It’s not unimaginable that a Johnson supporter voted for García believing he had the greatest chance of making the runoff. If just a few more people opted for this strategy, progressives would have been denied a spot entirely.

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These sorts of dangers don’t exist under instant-runoff voting.

Another well-documented side effect of instant-runoff voting is an increase in positive campaign messaging and general civility. This makes intuitive sense: candidates depend not just on receiving first-round votes, but also on being voters’ second or third choice. They won’t attack other candidates nearly as harshly because they cannot afford to alienate their supporters. There is some evidence that this makes running for office a more attractive prospect for historically underrepresented groups, particularly people of color and women.

Instant-runoff voting may also help increase voter turnout in municipal elections, which have historically struggled with low participation. Part of this is owed to positive campaigns: when voters don’t feel like they’re choosing from a pool of bad options, they are more willing to show up. However, an instant-runoff system also makes it easier to vote by ensuring that people only need to show up once.

The runoff system forces people to go through the process of voting twice: once during the initial election and again during the runoff election.

For working people or those who take care of children, making time to cast a ballot on two separate Tuesdays may be a prohibitive cost. In comparison to the current voting system, instant-runoff voting massively reduces the cost of voting. While it is possible that a new ballot design may be too complicated for some

voters, there is evidence to suggest this is not a widespread problem.

Despite its unfamiliarity to most Chicagoans, results from comparable jurisdictions suggest that implementing instant-runoff voting here is entirely possible. Multiple states have adopted the system for their federal elections, and it has taken an even greater hold in municipalities across the country. Notably, New York City, perhaps the most comparable city in the country to Chicago in terms of political culture, adopted instant-runoff voting for their municipal elections. They elected their first mayor and city council under the system in 2021. Evanston, a Chicago suburb known for pioneering progressive policies, overwhelmingly approved the system last year. If Chicagoans create enough political will, our government can adopt instant-runoff voting and make our next mayoral election the easiest yet.

The Rise of Digital Lending

RICHARD CAMPO

Traditionally, businesses and consumers have obtained loans from banks, credit unions, and other financial institutions. However, in recent years, alternative forms of credit have arisen from the burgeoning financial technology (“fintech”) industry and large, established technology companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft (“Big Tech”). Rapid credit growth can often forecast financial crises and recessions. Therefore, the recent rise in lending from the tech sector could have significant policy implications. Regulators must understand the scope and causes of this rise in alternative credit. In March 2023, a team of researchers in Switzerland and the UK, led by Giulio Cornelli at the University of Zurich, published a paper in the Journal of Banking and Finance about the significance of lending from Big Tech.

Cornelli et al. first explores how fintech and Big Tech lenders operate. Some firms partner with traditional financial institutions to leverage their data and networks but pass on the risk. Other fintech and Big Tech firms shoulder the full responsibility of their loans. Fintech and Big Tech lenders also have different business models. Fintech companies use decentralized platforms to connect individual lenders and borrowers, screen users, and report information on borrowers’ risk. Examples of fintech companies include Lending Club, SoFi, and OnDeck. On the other hand, Big Tech lenders only offer credit as a small part of their overall operations and employ user data to predict the riskiness of loans.

To study the expansion of digital lending, the researchers assembled a new database of global credit volumes offered by fintech and Big Tech lenders. The authors compiled a dataset of 79 countries from 2013 to 2018, encompassing fintech lending data obtained from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF) and Big Tech lending data acquired from central banks and major tech companies. With this new data, Cornelli et al. found that total Big Tech lending was $10.6 billion and total fintech lending was $9.9 billion in 2013. In 2018, these figures exploded to $397 billion of total Big Tech lending and $297 of total fintech lending.

The importance of digital lending lies in its rapid expansion as the industry develops.

While these numbers are large and growing, alternative credit is still only a small fraction of total global lending. For example, fintech lending in the United States was only about $57.7 billion in 2018, or about 0.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Big Tech lending was only $1 billion, primarily from Amazon’s seller lending program. For context, total credit to the private non-financial sector in the US is about $40 trillion, or about 140% of GDP. The importance of digital lending lies in its rapid expansion as the industry develops. As it continues to grow, digital lending will play an increasingly larger role in the overall credit market.

The researchers found that digital lending is more common in countries with higher

incomes, larger banking profit margins, and looser banking regulations. Specifically, the authors observed a positive correlation between GDP per capita and total alternative credit per capita until GDP per capita reaches about $31,000, putting a country in the top 20% of the world’s wealthiest. Beyond this point, higher GDP per capita is inversely related to total alternative credit per capita. Similarly, each ten-percentage point increase in a country’s Lerner Index score, a measure of banking mark-ups, predicts a 14% increase in total alternative credit per capita. Lastly, the researchers use a regulation index to summarize financial institutions’ capital and disclosure requirements and countries’ supervisory agency power. The authors observed that when a country’s regulation index score exceeds the average by one standard deviation, they could expect a 0.5 percentage point decrease in the ratio of total alternative credit per capita. Together, these relationships indicate that the amount of digital lending varies based on several factors, and policymakers can use banking regulation to encourage or discourage digital lending.

Clear regulations may reduce the risk that policymakers will ban fintech lending in the future.

To further test the data, the authors added an additional variable to measure whether a country has specific regulations for fintech. From 2013 to 2018, 21 countries wrote new regulations for fintech. The researchers found that explicit regulation of fintech predicted a 103% increase in fintech lending. Cornelli et al. propose that fintech regulations may arise in response to growing fintech credit volumes and

that clear regulations may reduce the risk that policymakers will ban fintech lending in the future. The authors also found that when countries tighten their financial regulations, Big Tech lending grows faster than fintech lending. Perhaps this suggests that lawmakers may write new regulations too narrowly to encompass lending from Big Tech companies, or Big Tech companies may find it easier to comply with new regulations.

The economic bubble that hit Japan in the 1980s serves as a warning about the risks in alternative credit markets. During this time, excessive lending and a subsequent burst of the credit bubble led to Japan’s “Lost Decades,” a period marked by low economic growth. To mitigate this risk today and efficiently regulate the market, policymakers need to better understand the operations of fintech and Big Tech lenders. Similarly, regulators should collect more data about tech credit volumes for transparency to the public and to allow for the standardization of regulation across both alternative and traditional lenders. Implementing these measures in fintech and Big Tech lending would foster a safe avenue for growth while managing risks, ultimately increasing global access to loans for underserved borrowers.

The EU’s Democracy Challenge - & Opportunity

GRANT CASTLE

In December 2022, Belgian authorities arrested Eva Kaili, a vice president of the European Parliament, amidst allegations that she accepted bribes from Qatar. This corruption scandal followed similar concerns in the European Union (EU) over the influence of Russian energy lobbyists during debates regarding sanctions against Russia.

While much of the attention on threats to democracy in the EU has focused on democratic backsliding within member states Hungary and Poland, a lack of democratic accountability poses an equally grave threat to EU institutions. For decades, experts have warned of a ‘democratic deficit,’ arguing that EU institutions lack democratic legitimacy.

As the EU’s continental and global influence grows, European leaders must reform the institution to bolster the EU’s democratic foundations and prepare it for challenges ahead.

The EU, a supranational political entity, has integrated 27 European countries through an internal single market, common regulatory systems, visa-free travel and work, and a monetary union. The EU dominates policymaking in Europe and is led by three key bodies. The supervisory European Council consists of the heads of government of each EU member state. The European Parliament is composed of

705 members (MEPs) directly elected via proportional representation using party lists and single national constituencies. The European Commission, led by an appointed president, is the EU’s primary executive body. It stands as the most powerful EU institution and proposes and executes laws, budgets, and regulations.

Critics have long argued that these institutions suffer from a “democratic deficit” because power resides in the unelected Commission rather than the democratically-chosen Parliament. While the 2007 Treaty of Lisbon addressed some concerns by strengthening Parliament, recent scandals show that accountability challenges persist. The Parliament still cannot initiate legislation, and can only approve, amend, or reject legislation drafted by the Commission. The EU’s de facto leader, President of the Commission, is ostensibly nominated by the Council and approved by the Parliament. In reality, however, the appointment of the current President was widely said to be the result of a backroom deal among member states.

European citizens also do not feel connected to the EU. Voter turnout in the EU’s 2019 elections was just 50.66%. In Germany, turnout was 61.38% for the 2019 EU elections but 76.6% for the country’s 2022 national elections. Surveys have found that only 45% of Europeans have a positive view of the EU and that just

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60% of respondents knew that they could vote for MEPs. National newspapers barely cover the activities of MEPs and voters treat Parliament elections as midterm referenda on the performance of national governments rather than as votes on Europe-wide issues.

The 2016 Brexit vote in the United Kingdom (UK) highlights this disconnect between voters and the EU. While the flashy pro-Brexit campaign captured the public’s attention, the ‘remain’ campaign failed to devise a winning pro-EU message. The leaders of both of the UK’s major political parties were muted and ambivalent in their support of ‘remain’, and EU leaders opted to stay silent rather than campaign for the EU. The UK’s vote to leave the EU suggests that EU-minded leaders failed to connect with voters and engage in a public contestation of ideas.

Despite Brexit, the EU has successfully fostered economic growth, bolstered human rights, and ensured stability for decades. All the while, the EU’s power is growing. In the last three years, the EU implemented an €800 billion pandemic recovery fund, launched a climate change program, and coordinated a robust response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Yet the EU’s incredible progress risks being undermined by its democratic deficit. Reforms are needed to bolster democratic accountability and ensure the EU has public legitimacy to match its power.

The EU’s historic propensity for internally-driven institutional reforms suggests that improvements are possible. First,

the Parliament must be allowed to initiate legislation, thereby enhancing its power vis-à-vis the Commission. Rather than relying on a proportional system to elect MEPs, a mixed electoral system could enable voters to directly choose some MEPs via majoritarian elections. Allowing voters to directly vote for individuals, rather than only a party, brings MEPs closer to their constituents, improving leader accountability and performance. The EU could also create Union-wide parliamentary seats, as the Parliament has already suggested, so that all EU voters elect some MEPs transnationally rather than just MEPs from their own country. Doing so would compel parliamentary candidates to campaign on EU issues instead of national ones. Finally, the EU must formalize the selection process of the Commission President so that the winning parties of the Parliament—not backroom deals—select EU leaders. This ensures that the choice of President reflects voters’ preferences and, by showing that parliamentary elections matter, may generate voter engagement.

For decades, the EU has successfully operated quietly and technocratically behind the scenes. As its power expands and populism rises, democracy must take center stage. EU leaders must engage directly with the public and openly advocate for the EU as an institution. By partaking in a public contest of ideas, EU leaders can hone their messages, preempt populist challenges, and build long-term public legitimacy. The European project has been a remarkable success for the past 70 years. To succeed in the next 70, the EU must strengthen its democratic elements and embody its democratic principles.

Teacher’s Wanted: A Nationwide Staffing Crisis Impacts

Illinois

MADELEINE GREENE

The teacher shortage is a crisis unfolding at the district, state and federal levels, worsening student learning and threatening the stability of schools - with no end in sight. In Illinois, 5,300 classroom positions went unfilled in 2022, the highest percentage of unfilled positions on record. Reporting midway through the 2023-2024 school year, over 90 percent of schools in Illinois said they had a “serious” or “very serious” shortage of teachers in fall. Over 30 percent of support staff positions are reported to be filled with candidates determined to be less than qualified, simply to provide bodies in roles. The teacher vacancy rate has nearly tripled from 1.1 percent in 2018 to 3 percent in 2023, according to the Illinois State Board of Education. These vacancies disproportionately harm students with disabilities and bilingual students, for whom shortages of credentialed staff are especially acute.

Though the pandemic exacerbated the crisis, applications to teacher preparation programs have declined by 60 percent over the last five years, starting in 2019. These declines in enrollment can be attributed to broader labor market trends, low pay relative to education required, difficult working conditions and other factors driving candidates from the field.

There simply are not enough new teachers entering the workforce to replace those who are retiring or otherwise leaving.

Critical staff shortages reflect the cashstrapped state of public education in Illinois, despite the state passing a 2017 funding formula that aims to eliminate inequity by bringing all districts up to adequate funding. The pandemic stretched dollars even further to provide for remote learning technology access and academic support to remedy learning loss in especially hard-hit areas of the state. With a 2027 deadline for legislators to fully fund the formula, 83 percent of Illinois students still attend underfunded schools.

These challenges are particularly prevalent in schools serving students of color and students from low-income backgrounds. Both rural and urban schools in Illinois are struggling, with over 90 percent of schools in east central and west central Illinois reporting teacher shortages. When teaching roles cannot be filled, school administrators are often forced to resort to practices such as combining classes, canceling electives, pulling teachers to cover classes they are not certified to teach and failing to provide special education services that are required by law. In a 2022 Education Week survey, 52 percent of teachers reported that student behavior was suffering as a result of staffing shortages, and 48 percent indicated student learning was suffering as well.

In a report from the Illinois Association of

Regional Superintendents of Schools, district leaders share their perspectives on the root causes of the shortage: starved school budgets, teacher burnout, lack of respect from parents and politicians, increasing violence at schools and higher pay in other professions, along with the many steps required to gain certification and licensure to teach. Superintendents also shared that a major contributor to high attrition was the intensity of the workload, with 40 percent of district leaders agreeing. As these contributors are largely systemic, superintendents are not empowered with the tools to tackle them on a broad scale and therefore struggle to find internal solutions.

On a school level, teacher retention can be boosted with more flexible schedules, smaller class sizes, and improved working conditions. Illinois schools with lower

teacher attrition also tend to have collaborative cultures and strong principal leadership, as well as lower student-to-teacher ratios. Locally, ‘grow your own’ and similar teacher pipelines strive to connect interested students to the profession. In March 2023, Governor Pritzker signed $70 million in annual pipeline grants over three years, targeting the 170 districts with the most dire staffing shortages. Chicago State University and City Colleges of Chicago collaborate with Chicago Public Schools (CPS) to enable students to earn a teaching credential in college and have a teaching role in CPS upon graduation.

District-level recruitment initiatives such as offering educators $4,000 bonuses to fill hard-to-staff schools have shown promise, but are short-term in scope. Due to funding disparities across districts, staff salaries can differ drastically from county to county, causing talent shortages in the areas that need it most. In many districts, perks and incentives for returning teachers have been funded with soon-expiring Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief (ESSER) dollars.

Due to funding disparities across districts, staff salaries can differ drastically from county to county, causing talent shortages in the areas that need it most.

Federally, in response to the pandemic, the US Department of Education (ED) has provided over $7 billion directly to Illinois districts through ESSER grants from 2020 through 2024. While these funds have been instrumental in keeping schools operational, there is concern that the federal

program’s sunset in 2024 will worsen the teacher shortage in the long run. Illinois instructional staff salaries have made up 37 percent of all ESSER funds received, raising the question of how these roles will remain filled when the funding expires.

To provide equitable education for students across the state and prevent an exodus of educators, we must implement progressive policy at the state and local. First steps include boosting teacher pay. 70 percent of teachers leaving the profession reported low pay as their primary reason for leaving. Lawmakers in Springfield must support the teacher pipeline to ensure adequate numbers in recruitment and teacher placement. Promising initiatives like the Minority Teachers of Illinois program, which provides $8 million in scholarships to students of color pursuing undergraduate studies in education, need to be expanded and replicated.

We can also support with incentives for earning certification and endorsement, especially among paraprofessionals and substitute teachers with experience. Improving abysmal paraprofessional pay (averaging $15 per hour in 2023) might ensure a steady pool of classroom professionals who choose to pursue a teaching credential.

Though the roots of the issue are complex, eliminating Illinois’ teacher shortage could not be more urgent. Our students are our future, and all students are entitled to a fully-funded classroom taught by a certified and supported educator. Leaders at the district, state, and federal level must act now to protect the public good of public education.

Simmons on Implementing the Nation’s First GovernmentFunded Reparations Program

NICO JOHNSON

Robin Rue Simmons is the founder and executive director of First Repair, a nonprofit organization that provides expertise, technical assistance, and advocacy for local reparations nationwide. As the 5th Ward alderwoman in Evanston, Illinois from 2017-2021, Ms. Rue Simmons choreographed the establishment of the United States’ first municipally-funded reparations legislation. Since leaving office, Ms. Rue Simmons serves as the chairwoman of the City of Evanston Reparations Committee.

Nico Johnson, Staff Writer and Director of Learning and Development at the Chicago Policy Review, spoke with Ms. Rue Simmons during her fellowship at the Institute of Politics about the latitude of reparations in the U.S. and the impact of the Evanston reparations program. This interview has been edited for brevity and clarity.

CPR: It wasn’t until I attended your talks at the University of Chicago’s Institute of Politics that I gained a comprehensive understanding of the reparations movement. Can you explain how reparations are more than a cash payment and why it’s important that Americans develop a robust understanding of reparations?

RRS: When we hear about reparations, we usually hear about a check as a form

SOURCE: INSTITUTE OF POLITICS

of repair because of other models that have prioritized some type of a cash benefit. But most of us really look at the international standard for reparations, which takes a comprehensive look at reparations and is more of what Black communities are calling for: cessation and guarantee of non-repetition of the anti-Black, racist policies that have harmed the Black community. Restitution in the form of a check, grant or tangible benefit is of course the most advocated touchstone of reparations. Satisfaction—a standard we’re gradually satisfying—focuses on restoring the dignity of a people, acknowledging them, and helping create a sense of place again. Lastly, rehabilitation is an area that we’re seeing more and more of a call for: our overall wellness, mental health, and trauma infused care. Repairing the whole person, the whole Black community, in ways

beyond compensation. A check alone without policy changes to fair lending, zoning laws, and representation is not going to be enough.

CPR: You reference a “comprehensive form of reparations.” Is that because reparations aren’t just for the original crime of slavery but for the systemic racist policies that followed post-emancipation?

RRS: That’s exactly right.

When we make the case for reparations, it’s not only the crimes of the transatlantic slave trade, but also its legacies.

We’re looking at the terror of slavery and theft of labor that was slavery, but moving forward through history, we’re seeking repair for the Jim Crow Era, redlining, police violence and terror, mass incarceration, predatory lending, and zoning inequities. That long list of harms and crimes against the Black community is what we’re looking to repair.

CPR: As the 5th Ward alderwoman in Evanston, Illinois from 2017 to 2021, you were responsible for crafting the nation’s first municipally-funded reparations program. Can you paint the big picture of what reparations in Evanston is about?

RRS: In 2019, I was a couple of years into my four-year term as alderwoman in Evanston and I wasn’t really thinking about reparations in the formal sense, like HR 40, but was supportive of HR 40. I realized our values of diversity and inclusion were not aligned with the racial gaps in wealth, education, homeownership,

and policing. Then I had learned more about the possibilities of being a Home Rule municipality, with our form of government, and what authority and power we had to govern within our values as a city. Building on the work of many before me—a reparations resolution in 2002 that supported HR 40 and various diversity and inclusion programs—I called the question for reparations. With Resolution 126-R-19, we established a reparations fund with an initial $10 million from cannabis tax. Informed through a community process, we prioritized housing, economic development, and educational initiatives. We then established a committee to do the work. Right now, we’ve made a commitment to repair past harm specifically to Evanston. We are not interested nor able to implement the federal law and budget for the crimes of slavery. We, of course, still stand on HR 40 as an expectation for slavery remedy. But we are focused on how the city of Evanston has harmed its Black community. Reparations are an ongoing and complex process and we’re in the early stages of it.

CPR: You touched briefly on the reparations fund coming from the cannabis tax in Evanston. Can you expand on this funding and the eligibility criteria for a person to receive reparations?

RRS: We saw that there was a 71% arrest rate in the Black community for marijuana-related crimes while we were only 15% of the population. So, it was an easy consensus to use a cannabis sales tax to fund reparations. Since then, we’ve added some additional taxes as well. We then determined that an individual waseligible for reparations if they were a Black

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resident of Evanston directly harmed by— or a direct descendant of someone who was harmed by—racist housing practices and zoning laws during a 50-year period between 1919 and 1969. As we’ve begun dispersing reparations, our elders that were directly harmed between 1919 and 1969 have been the first to receive their disbursements.

CPR: Can you expand on the context of harm? Who was doing the harming, and where did you find the data that allowed you to identify it?

RRS: I’m so glad you asked that question. The City of Evanston was doing harm with its laws, its policies, and its practices. The Shorefront Legacy Center, led and directed by Dino Robinson, uncovered the harm in a report on the negative impacts of zoning laws on wealth, opportunity, and access for Black residents. A section of the community disinvested in, stripped of a neighborhood school, and stripped of a hospital. Still today, it has no access to a neighborhood school. The school district has since pledged to return one school, but even still, there is no healthy food in the area, and there are air quality issues, deteriorating housing stock, fewer community amenities, business amenities, and civic amenities, less green space, less environmental assets and more.

CPR: You touched briefly on the disbursement order to Black residents, which began January 2022. How were those initial disbursements given and for what purpose?

RRS: Right now, the initial program that we’ve crafted is a $25,000 restorative housing direct reparation benefit to build

wealth through home equity. It can be applied towards a down payment, to reduce mortgage balance principle, to make home improvements, or it can be passed down to a direct descendant. We have residents who have made substantial home improvements on deferred maintenance or aesthetic things they just desire to have. It’s their choice to do as they see fit. We also have residents who have given their benefit to their child. In one case, the child paid down their mortgage balance and won’t have a mortgage payment for three to four years, providing a little bit of relief. And we just expanded our program to include the option to take a cash benefit if you aren’t eligible for any of these uses.

CPR: Can you discuss how pivotal engaging the interfaith community was in garnering support for reparations in Evanston?

RRS: Men and women like Rabbi Andrea London of Beth EMET synagogue and Reverend Dr. Michael C.R. Nabors of Second Baptist Church have been leading our communities through public education and understanding of reparations. The Jewish community has been preparing white papers on reparations based on their scripture, as have our Catholic and Protestant churches. The infrastructure of the interfaith community has created a safe space for people to learn and stretch themselves. In just a few months, our interfaith community of about 18 churches raised nearly a million dollars in support of the municipal work that’s happening for reparations in Evanston.

CPR: Can you discuss the nature of the opposition that you faced in your work for reparations?

RRS: Aside from the political opposition, when you pursue a transformative policy that some consider radical and others consider necessary, the opposition grows. What I expected was the racially insensitive opposition: name calling, social media terror, violence, and being called out of my name. What I didn’t expect was such an organized nucleus of inner community debate around forms of reparations and what direction we should take, which is also political. For me, that is quite frustrating because we have an enemy to fight together—white supremacy—and to be distracted with fighting one another over political position is debilitating.

there are some reparation supporters that only believe in a cash benefit as a form of reparations. the argument is really a false debate because it’s not a question of “either/or,” it’s a question of how do we get to all of these forms of repair?

And we have to do it one step at a time. Especially when we’ve had no progress for municipally-funded or federally-funded reparations for Black America.

CPR: You’ve made clear that reparations are unapologetically targeted at repairing centuries of harm done to Black communities. How do reparations benefit an entire community?

RRS: There’s a 2018 report called “The Cost of Segregation,” that was published by the Metropolitan Planning Council. It centers on how addressing segregation and various forms of discrimination could uplift all of Chicago. This report emboldened me to move forward knowing that

the moral argument would not be enough; fiscal responsibility and legislative possibilities would also come up as concerns because there was no model to use as inspiration. But that report shows how reparations can increase the GDP of Chicago by billions of dollars and spur exponential growth for Black families by increasing their household income, improving their education and access to thriving wage jobs, and reducing neighborhood violence. It’s an incredible report with a long list of positive outcomes. I recommend everyone review it to understand how reparations are good for the entire community. It is a public benefit. Reparations actually improve every sector, every neighborhood. The improvement in overall wellness of a community can be achieved by repairing the Black community.

CPR: At the Harris School, we’re hyper-focused on measuring and evaluating the impact of public policy programs. How long do you think it will take to see the benefit of the Evanston reparations program on the community?

RRS: Owning your own home is a determinant for everything: wellness, education, mental health, and your overall quality of life. Having stable housing makes all the difference. It’ll be 10 years before we can really see the type of decrease in the household income gaps that we would like to see. There are many Black folks who believe that there is no dollar amount or program that can repair the harm of rape and murder and plunder. You can’t repair that, but you can acknowledge it and take a step forward. In terms of seeing our racial gaps reduced, it’ll be years before we can measure the success of this.

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CPR: This may not be something that you can see in the data yet, but have you seen an increase in civic participation amongst the Black community since the program began in 2019?

CPR: This may not be something that you can see in the data yet, but have you seen an increase in civic participation amongst the Black community since the program began in 2019?

RRS: I’m so glad you asked. These are some of the other benefits that we didn’t even think to measure: more civic participation, more voice, more ownership from the Black community. We’re also seeing more Black residents hired in leadership positions, and elected and appointed to boards, committees, and commissions. We’re seeing more participation and inclusion of Black voices.

CPR: Are there any books or resources that you would recommend people read if

they are interested in understanding the full scope and importance of the reparations movement in the United States?

RRS: There are so many. I would look at “The Color of Law” by Richard Rothstein as a great book to understand the disparities of housing and zoning and plunder in Black communities. A quick read is going to be Ta-Nehisi Coates’s “The Case for Reparations.” But there’s such a robust list beyond just these. I would recommend readers visit our website where we have a resource page that has a list of recommendations, readings, reports, and documentaries about how to implement reparations. They help explain that reparations are more than a check: that there is precedent, and cause for action. SOURCE:

No Adult Left Behind: Automation, Job Loss, and Education Policy

PHILIP KLAFTA

Artificial intelligence forces vital education policy questions into the national landscape. The introduction of machine learning and artificial intelligence created cheap and prolific automation. Self-check-out and autonomous driving have taken center stage in labor automation discussions; around the corner, there is a wave of fully automated coffee shops, and $3/hour robotic frycooks, that threaten to the most common jobs. According to a study byMcKinsey & Company, 45 million people or around a quarter of the workforce will lose their jobs to automation by 2030. Automation and artificial intelligence pose the greatest threat to the American labor market.

As with other great jumps in technology, labor demand shifts away from jobs that have been replaced by the technology towards workers who can serve as complements. Harry J. Holzer, Professor of Public Policy at Georgetown University, argues that since the 1980s, automation has led to labor market inequalities caused by increases in compensation of complementary workers and a decrease in compensation for replaced workers.

Complementing new technology often necessitates additional training, while optimal utilization may require further formal education. The rising cost of education

and ever decreasing cost of automation only contributes to the impending labor displacement and the responsibility is on the government to produce a solution.

Two policies aim to address the impact of automation. The first is described by Dr. Holzer calls for K-12 and post-secondary schools to teach communication, analytical, and creative skills that allow workers to act as complementary to new technology. This workers the skills needed to succeed in an automated workforce without attending college. The second is similar to the investments in public education in the early 1900s and late 1940s with the push for universal high school education and the G.I. bill, respectively.

Investments that decrease the costs of a college degree incentivize future workers to gain the skills needed to succeed in the modern workforce.

automation and artificial intelligence pose the single greatest threat to the american labor market.

Compared to the shift in existing education, federal investments towards post-secondary education provide a more effective, and proven solution.

From a philosophical standpoint, reducing obstacles to advanced education may be more favorable than altering existing programs. Moreover, in the U.S., primary and secondary school curriculums are established at the state level.

This limits the potential for coordinated and impactful implementation and raises difficult questions around what a curriculum shift towards communication, analytical, and creative skills would look like and if it would be sufficient to combat automation. Supporting the case for investments in post-secondary education is convincing evidence from the University of Michigan that the attainment of a college degree plays a key part in the growing income inequality gap. He argues that the completion of college leads to greater lifetime wages and that this completion of college, and increased wages leads to an increased likelihood of following generations in the family completing college.

A policy around investments that decrease the cost of entry to the market of post-secondary degree holders, which is becoming increasingly required in today’s job market, not only incentivizes, and provides a path for future workers to gain the skills needed to succeed in the modern workforce, but also directly combats the income inequality driven by the labor demand shifts associated with technological jumps. In his farewell address, President Barack Obama stated the next wave of economic dislocations is not coming from overseas but from the relentless pace of automation that will make a lot of good middle-class jobs obsolete. Without addressing the imminent impact of automation and artificial intelligence on the American labor force, our country will face increases in labor market polarization, persistent income inequality, and a large population of displaced, undereducated workers.

Yesterday’s education landscape is inadequate for today’s labor markets and policy solutions need to be proactive, modern, and encompassing.

This can be most effectively achieved by federal investments in post-secondary education that increase the accessibility and incentives for Americans to obtain the necessary skills to thrive in the modern workforce.

The Future of Medicare Drug Price Negotiation and Pharmaceutical Innovation

LUCAS MILLER

One of the most publicized provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is the section mandating that a small subset of the most expensive pharmaceutical products in the U.S. be subject to Medicare price negotiations. The provision applies only to a minority of branded drugs and the implementation of it will not begin for several years. Ten drugs will be subject to negotiations beginning in 2026, with more to follow in subsequent years. In August 2023, the Biden Administration announced the initial set of drugs selected for price negotiations, which includes treatments for rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn’s disease, diabetes, heart failure, and blood cancers.

Prescription drug benefits were incorporated into Medicare following the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003. This law contains a noninterference clause, which specifies that to “promote competition,” the Secretary of Health and Human Services “may not interfere with the negotiations between drug manufacturers and pharmacies.” Billy Tauzin, the Republican chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee at the time of the bill’s passage, was critical to shepherding through the law that prohibited Medicare from negotiating drug prices. Immediately after his term ended in 2005, Tauzin became the president of PhRMA, the chief

lobbying group for pharmaceutical manufacturers in America. The consequences of Tauzin’s actions to kneecap Medicare’s negotiation power were far-reaching. The RAND Corporation estimated that prescription drug prices in the U.S. are 2.4 times higher than the average price in nine OECD countries such as the United Kingdom and Sweden, which permit the negotiation of drug prices. Pharmaceutical companies and their lobbying groups have long argued that subjecting their most profitable branded drugs to price negotiations would obliterate innovation and prevent lifesaving medicines from reaching patients. The IRA’s pharmaceutical price provisions have provoked a coordinated series of lawsuits from major pharmaceutical companies and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Merck, for example, cast the rule as tantamount to “extortion” and claimed that forcing “companies to conceal unpopular price-setting is exactly the parroted orthodoxy that the First Amendment’s compelled-speech doctrine is meant to forbid.” This portrayal of the law’s popularity is questionable.

95% of Democrats and 71% of republicans support allowing the federal government to negotiate drug prices.

- Kaiser Family Foundation poll

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Putting aside public opinion, the central policy questions are whether this law will have an adverse impact on the development and provision of lifesaving therapeutics and whether any potential innovation loss is justified by increased savings on pharmaceutical treatments.

The answers to these questions are highly dependent on the research team and its source of funding. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan government agency tasked with analyzing the economic and budgetary impacts of proposed legislation, estimated that out of the 1,300 drugs expected to be approved over the next 30 years, only 13 would not make it to market as a result of Medicare price negotiation. In contrast, Tomas J. Philipson, a professor at the University of Chicago and acting chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under former President Donald Trump, projected that the law would result in 79 fewer small molecule drugs over 20 years and a loss of 116.0 million life years “due to the missed the missed opportunities to improve health.” Philipson’s paper was funded “in part” by PhRMA and subsequently presented on PhRMA’s website as evidence that the IRA would harm innovation. PhRMA has also released a factsheet detailing that 78% of its member companies are likely to cancel early-stage pipeline projects and 57% expect to reduce spending in pharmaceutical technologies that take multiple years to develop.

The CBO estimated that Medicare drug price negotiations are expected to reduce the annual deficit by $25 billion and average drug prices by 9% in 2031. For the therapeutics selected for negotiation,

however, the IRA is expected to lower their net price by a staggering 50%. Given the amount of money at stake and the intense partisan divisions surrounding the IRA, it is reasonable to expect diverging projections regarding the impact of the IRA on pharmaceutical innovation from truly objective sources and researchers connected with special interest groups.

As for the longevity of Medicare drug price negotiations, a federal judge recently denied the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s request for a preliminary injunction against the IRA provisions. Lawsuits from individual companies continue to make their way through the legal system to delay, if not outright block, the IRA drug price provisions. Even if this legal blitz fails, the long-term security of Medicare drug price negotiations is potentially vulnerable to legislative and administrative interference.

The executive branch generally has latitude in how it enforces law. The IRA directs the federal government to consider certain criteria in determining the “maximum fair price” that negotiated drugs cannot rise above, including R&D costs, sales volume, and federal financial support for early-stage drug discovery research. A future administration could manipulate these weights to effectively negotiate less aggressively against pharmaceutical manufacturers. With more than two years until negotiations commence, detractors will have ample time to attempt to weaken the law. For now, Medicare drug price negotiation remains a principal component of President Biden’s primary legislative achievement.

Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon on Rural America, Climate Policy, & the Future of Wyoming

MAX PADILLA

Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon has dedicated his entire life to serving the state. Mark Gordon originally hails from Kaycee, WY, Currently serving his second term as governor, Gordon secured reelection in 2022 with 79% of the vote, the largest win in Wyoming history. Chicago Policy Review’s Executive Editor for Policy Analysis Max Padilla conducted this interview on December 22, 2023. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

CPR: To kick us off, could you briefly overview the policy facing Wyoming?

MG: About half of our land and minerals are controlled by the federal government. We struggle against a federal government that switches quickly from administration to administration. Several of our essential industries, especially coal, oil, and gas, are under serious threat.Wyoming, pushes hard for technological advances that reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. We want to take charge of the development of our minerals in a responsible way. We had a methane rule long before the federal government ever thought about it. We want to control the way renewables are being deployed across our landscape without losing wildlife habitat or connectivity between states.

Another one of Wyoming’s biggest policy issues is mental health, we have the second highest suicide rate. We are trying to figure out the best ways to prevent suicide-related deaths. We are focusing on everyone, with a particular emphasis on veterans. Wyoming wants to provide for those who served. Veterans in particular face significant issues, one of the biggest: the long distances to Veterans Administration hospitals.

CPR: I would like to shift towards climate policy. In a recent interview with 60 Minutes, you were called a leading voice in promoting climate friendly energy projects. Climate friendly energy policy is not commonplace within the GOP. Do you see climate friendly policy being a dividing factor within the GOP?

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MG: Firstly, another Republican state, North Dakota, that is in the green energy space as much as we are. They are also looking to reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by reducing emissions. Secondly, Wyoming adheres to an all-of-the-above energy policy. We lead in nuclear development and carbon capture and sequestration.

The biggest challenge we have is with D.C’s drum beat of “we’ve got to stop coal.” People think that if they put coal miners out of work, they will make the world a little bit better. They don’t understand the challenge. In Wyoming, we educate our kids off coal. We built our schools off coal lease bonus sales. We mine it better than anyone else and have developed techniques that reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. We have the Integrated Test Center, which is the leading laboratory in carbon capture techniques.

At a national policy level, two things are conflated. “Let us put that coal mining out of business” and “That is good for the atmosphere.”

Wyoming is saying:

it is carbon dioxide, not coal mining.

Coal is incredibly valuable; if we invest in the right technologies, we can be incredibly climate friendly. We are just trying to tell that story.

I want Wyoming to be given the opportunity to develop energy in a unique way that positively affects climate. Renewables are not going to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere, they will slow down emissions, but they are not going to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere. for the atmosphere.

CPR: This August, the Wyoming Secretary of State called ESG related policies “a woke clown show.” Subsequently, the Wyoming legislature put in place several policies to push back against the ESG movement. As the rest of the country moves towards greener energy can Wyoming, given that it is the nation’s largest coal producer, really afford to ignore the “E” in ESG?

MG: ESG started showing up 15 years ago. When I was Treasurer, I was at the Milken Institute where everybody was touting reasons to get rid of coal, as if it’s a simple thing to do.My response to that at Milken was to say: “That is ridiculous.” If we are still driving cars, we need materials. You need coal to make asphalt, and you need carbon fibers derived from coal for aviation.

Most people do not look deeply into the “E” in ESGs. People have grandiose notions about what the “S” in ESG is. As far as governance is concerned people seem to only put more women on boards, but they ignore more significant governance problems that ESG never talks about. If it is a bad board that does not do good work for a company, that is what governance is about. That is what takeovers and acquisitions exploit. ESG is a misguided, cosmetic approach that imposes a rubric over public funds that have no business being there.

CPR: Moving onto the Wyoming economy, Wyoming Sovereign Wealth Funds ranked #3 in the world for transparency from the Peterson Institute while you served as Treasurer. Since then, it has remained high on that same list. What’s the significance of this for Wyoming?

MG: It meant a lot to be on the list. The people of Wyoming are the beneficiaries, I wanted them to understand where their investments were being made and what the returns were. We wanted people to understand how the investments were being made because they have a piece of the action as far as howthe investments were being made because they have a piece of the action as far as how Wyoming invests. Being on that list has allowed me to go to things like the Milken Conference and the International Sovereign Wealth Fund Forum as a peer. It has allowed me to play a very large role in bringing Wyoming’s technology forward to a better world.

CPR: Critics have pointed to a catch22 at the center of the state’s economic diversification efforts. As the state attempts toattract new industries and their workers, the tenuous fiscal situation worsens and may continue to do so unless the tax structure is diversified. However, its current taxstructure draws new industries into the state. Can you explain that dynamic?

MG: Wyoming doesn’t have income tax, which, as a former governor says, makes us an exceptional place to preserve wealth. People move here after they make their money elsewhere. The tax structure has a secondary problem. If we diversify and people that come in who benefit from but do not participate in the tax structure, it just adds costs. That, frankly is the biggest bugaboo with our tax structure. What if we diversify and bring new businesses in and they do not shoulder the load? New businesses often bring young or middle-aged families that might have kids. Those kids take part in state-provided education, but we don’t collect enough income tax to offset the price of that education.

For a long time, the structure worked because minerals shouldered the load. Back in the 1980’s about 80% of our revenues came from mineral development, that now sits around 60%. We have diversified but are looking to the future. We talked a little bit about the footprint renewable energy brings; renewables do not currently pay any significant tax. Renewable portfolios will need to play some role in providing the nation’s electricity. People who moved here to work with renewables tell us that if we change the current structure, they will not be here.

CPR: Is there room for reform in the system without disincentivizing investments? How do you craft a booming economy while maintaining a strong fiscal position?

MG: Wyoming was open during COVID. Many people saw us as a counterweight to aggressive states like California and Colorado. There was a lot of migration to Wyoming, from people who came here for open spaces. They also came here due to the lack of income tax. People bought homes sight unseen, forcing asignificant appreciation in property value. This created a struggle for people on fixed incomes. Property value went up, not through any fault of their own, but because people bought houses at high prices. This forced a robust and serious conversation about what we do to make sure the tax burden in Wyoming remains low but diversified.

We also need to withstand the meaningful and harmful assaults from the federal government on our economy. Congress is out to lunch and cannot do anything. The courts are jammed up, and it takes a very long time to get any resolution.

CHICAGO POLICY REVIEW

The Biden administration knows this drives an agenda that nobody can check them on. Oil and gas leasing is essential for our buildup and development. In 2020, the Biden administration paused the required mandatory quarterly lease sales until they completed an assessment of what that leasing program looks like, which resulted in functionally no lease sales in Wyoming. Even when a sale was executed, the lease was not provided for development.These actions have meaningful consequences for our economy.

CPR: The Cowboys state started a campaign to become the nation’s most crypto-friendly state. Wyoming attracted crypto, blockchain, and Web3 employees. Despite this, some have criticized Wyoming’s crypto-friendly aspirations as “colliding with economic reality.” What are your plans going forward?

MG: First, we are building the Wyoming stable token, which will be the first of its kind. It is regulated under Wyoming, and we hope to lead in that space. There are two main exchanges at this point, that Washington deliberately tries to regulate. The Federal Reserve, FDIC, and other regulatory structures intend to narrow the crypto and community banking spaces. They drive to bigger players like JPMorgan. The policies out of D.C. are limiting the experimentation that Wyoming can partake in. There’s resistance from the FDIC to allow banks to be an intermediary with crypto exchanges. They are using the excuse of Silicon Valley Bank, to tell us why that can’t happen. Despite the limits on our experimentation, Wyoming’s banking is open. We have Special Purpose Depository Institutions, or SPDIs, designed to be transparent.

We are working our way through regulatory structure. In talking to other governors, I have found that some do not think a small state, like Wyoming, has the capacity to play in this field. That has been incredibly tiresome.

CPR: What do you wish people knew from a policy standpoint about Wyoming?

MG: Wyoming offers more access to government than any other state. I make myself available. That is true of all the constitutional officers and the legislature. We try to be very engaged and friendly. We can craft policy and legislation to meet needs better than most other states. There’s a unique advantage with the development and expansion along the Front Range of the Rockies. I’ve mentioned this a lot, but the country seems to be forgetting its federal roots. It feels like it is starting to think “we’re going to drive policy from Washington from one agenda.” There are a lot of reasons that may be happening, but it is particularly frustrating for rural states. It sounds cliche, but Washington just does not understand what is going on here.

Government Shutdown Worries the Militaryfor Good Reason

TREY PENNINGTON

During the House Speaker crisis, military service members were sent to the front lines once again, not to fight a war against great powers across oceans, but to serve as a rhetorical tool. The nearly avoided government shutdown in September 2023 that catalyzed the removal of former Speaker McCarthy highlighted a weakness in American democracy thatdirectly affects national security and military readiness. Members of our Armed Forces don’t get paid during a government shutdown. Elected officials pleaded with members of Congress to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government funded and open, oftentimes citing the military as an example of why Congress cannot allow a shutdown. While an emotional rallying cry for lawmakers to get behind, the real implications for service members are rarely discussed or understood.

Without Congress passing additional legislation, the Department of Defense issues guidance for operations under a no-pay scenario. An important aspect of this guidance is that active-duty service members are still expected to show up to work. Recognizing the dangers this situation poses for national security, as well as the livelihoods of servicemembers and their families, Congresswoman Jen Kiggans,

of Virginia’s 2nd District, a former service member herself, introduced the “Pay Our Troops Act.”This proposed legislation would use funds from the Treasury to protect service members and certain civilian employees in the event the government was shut down in late September. The challenges faced by service members in “no-pay” scenarios are temporary, but when added up, decrease morale and retention, two vital aspects of military readiness.

Services not specifically funded through Congressional appropriation pause, affecting the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands. Basic services such as on-base hospitals, schools, and commissaries limit their operations. As a result, children of service members cannot participate in activities provided by the DoD school system. U.S. based commissaries often halt operations, leading families to re-evaluate where they buy their food. If morale and retention were a concern allowing the government to shutdown only exacerbates these issues.

Not only does a shutdown affect the way service members and their families go about their lives within a military base, but it induces strain on inter-base logistics by freezing the ever-flowing movement

of service members around the world. Anyone who has known a member of the armed forces is familiar with “PCSing,” or “Permanent Change of Station-‘ing.’”

The standing military policy moves fighting force members across the country every few years to join a new company, ship, or squadron. This practice decreases the emotional attachment and ensures necessary positions are always filled. Oftentimes when service members get promoted, they receive orders to go to a new schoolhouse for additional training. This schooling and subsequent assignment to a new division can result in one or two moves for them and their families within the span of a year.

government shutdowns overwhelm the military’s systems of operation.

Backups of training pipelines and backlogs of maintenance occupy the forefront of the minds of military leaders, but are backburner thoughts for politicians. When lawmakers allow a shutdown to occur, they increase the stress an already strained workforce must deal with.

Contractors and civilians employed by the DoD feel the effects of a shutdown as well. Depending on the specific job they hold, some may be permitted to continue in their day-to-day work, but many of them are furloughed when the pay stops. Furloughs have a two-pronged effect: members affected by a furlough, and the ripple effect on those related to their work (i.e. delayed projects, expenses building).

Delayed projects, higher costs of operation, decreased morale, and low rates of recruitment and retention weaken U.S.

military readiness capabilities. U.S. adversaries see those weaknesses and hope to exploit them. Historical national security doctrine always aims to ensure military readiness. Allowing a shutdown to occur does not ensure military readiness and increased instances of shutdown threats hint at a disturbing claim that the United States is in a stage of democratic backslide. Is this a time for adversaries to be more aggressive? Surely. Is this a time when our own leaders can focus and strengthen our military resolve? Definitely, and luckily, we do see some lawmakers taking the correct steps to mitigate some of these issues.

Actions such as Congresswoman Jen Kiggan’s “Pay Our Troops Act” shows adaptability by our representatives and their acknowledgment of the importance of funding the military throughout a political crisis.

We can take solace in the fact that Speaker McCarthy ensured that the above-mentioned problems did not come to fruition. His political loss is a glimmer of hope that while some members of Congress may use a shutdown as a political tool to their advantage, democracy might persevere if enough elected officials are willing to risk losing their seat of power to avoid a catastrophe.

When the threat of a shutdown rears its ugly head once again, as it surely will, do not be surprised if we see a similar appeal citing our service members. However, it is important to understand the hidden costs of what may happen if a last-minute save does not come to the rescue as it did today. If it does not, we need a policy proposal such as the “Pay Our Troops Act” to ensure military readiness, even if the rest of the government remains unfunded.

Bankrupt Ballcarriers? How NFL Policy Limits Running Back Earnings

WILL PENNINGTON

The National Football League has a major problem on its hands. Or, at least, the league’s running backs do: they aren’t getting paid like they used to, and the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement is partially to blame. After begrudgingly playing the 2023-24 season on one-year deals, a contingent of star running backs across the NFL have signed contract extensions since the 2024 free agency signing period opened earlier this month. While recent deals for the likes of Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Jonathan Taylor are undoubtedly big wins at an individual level, the ordeal they endured to get there bodes ill for the future of compensation at the running back position.

Although Barkley, Jacobs, and Taylor established themselves among the upper echelon of ball-carriers while playing on cheap, rookie-scale contracts Their teams’ reluctance to hand out big extensions left them fighting uphill battles upon the expiration of their rookie deals in 2023. Disgruntled with the state of negotiations ahead of the 2023 season, all three staged brief and unsuccessful holdouts from training camp that ultimately proved illustrative of running backs’ deflated leverage in the modern player market. In a July 2023 Zoom meeting of the league’s premier running backs, organized by fellow

frustrated extension-seeker Austin Ekeler, players reportedly “kicked around ideas” to address their plight while ultimately acknowledging that there’s not much they can do.

Indeed, the data confirms that compensation for running backs is lagging other position groups across the NFL. Figure 1 demonstrates that since the 1990s, average annual salaries for the 5 highest-paid running backs across the league have grown modestly in comparison to compensation for other skill-position players on offense. From being the second-highest paid position group as recently as the 1994 season, the running back position has fallen toward the middle of the pack in 2022.

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This compensation trend is particularly puzzling considering running backs’ status as focal points of offensive strategy on the field and as the media darlings in sports coverage. Even Christian McCaffrey, the NFL’s best running back, seems

FIGURE

underpaid despite signing a solid contract extension in 2020. The San Francisco 49ers’ acquisition of McCaffrey via trade during the 2022 season instantaneously vaulted the team to championship contention while serving as premier media fodder for months. Just over a year later, his consistent, dynamic, and explosive play resulted in a streak of 17 straight games with a touchdown, tied for most in NFL history. And yet, McCaffrey’s four-year, $64 million contract will make him just the sixth-highest paid player on the team in 2024, behind the 49ers’ right tackle.

While it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly why the running back market has cooled so substantially, most can agree on a few contributing factors. The first, and most obvious, reason for running backs’ slipping salaries is that the game is shifting— since 2003, NFL average pass-run split has gone up from 53%/47% to 58%/42%, and offenses are having more success than ever moving the ball. The modern NFL is a pass-first league and run-first offenses have become few and far between. A second contributing factor might be that running back talent parity relative to other position groups has made individual production largely replaceable. Following a 2000-2004 zenith of reliance on “workhorse” running backs—players entrusted with nearly every snap at the running back position—NFL teams have increasingly leaned on a group of solid backs to carry the load on the ground. This resurgence of the “running back by committee” approach to the ground game is one piece of evidence that front offices value elite running back play only marginally more than league average play. Lastly, responsible for delivering repeated blows to oppising linebackers, running backs quickly

accumulate physical punishment that can sharply diminish their explosive capacity as they age. Whereas continual success at other positions is rewarded with greater responsibility and lucrative extensions, excellence at the running back position is itself a contributor to rapid athletic decline.

The distribution of the best one-season performances in NFL history across the major offensive skill positions attests that, more than any other position group, running backs’ propensity to deliver topnotch value peaks early in their career. Since the 2010 season, standout seasons for running backs are distributed even more tightly around ages 24-26 than before, while quarterbacks are achieving greater longevity due to the premium on quarterback experience and awareness in modern passing offenses. When combined with the compensation terms dictated by the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), the reality of running backs’ fleeting prime years creates a nightmare scenario for their extension prospects.

The 2011 CBA was a victory for players on multiple fronts. It delivered higher salaries to all players, whose share of NFL revenues increased to 47% from 42% under the previous CBA. However, its strict regulation of rookie contracts helps prevent top-end running backs from

FIGURE 2

capitalizing financially on their best seasons. Before 2011, draftees were allowed to negotiate their contracts freely—this practice allowed these unproven rookies to bargain for increasingly exorbitant compensation packages at the expense of multi-year veterans. After this trend culminated in 2010 first-overall pick Sam Bradford’s signing of a $78 million deal with the St. Louis Rams, the 2011 CBA placated both underpaid veterans and team owners looking to allocate cap space more efficiently. Negotiated between the NFL Players’ Association (NFLPA) and team owners, the agreement instituted the first rookie wage scale, locking in contract terms for rookies based on draft order alone. As a result of the rookie wage scale, annual salaries for top picks suffered tremendously [see Tables 1 and 2], with no exception for running backs [see Table 3].

Despite the benefits which the 2011 CBA delivered to the entire NFL, the shift to a rookie wage scale forces running backs to spend their most productive seasons on

3

low-value contracts. The rookie wage scale stipulates four-year contract terms for all rookies, with a “fifth-year option” for teams to extend first-round picks an additional, cost-controlled year. Since most players enter the league at age 22, this means that running backs are likely beyond their physical prime when they become eligible for contract extensions at 26 or 27. If running backs’ vocal demands do result in changes to the rookie wage scale when the current CBA expires in 2030, it will only give running backs the opportunity to earn more competitive wages while playing at their physical prime. Regardless, if a change to the CBA improves top college running backs’ odds of cashing in on draft day, it would be a big win for the future of the running back position.

FIGURE

We Don’t Need More ‘Terror on Repeat’

MEGAN SANDERS & DAVID CHRISINGER

In the first two months of 2024, more than 5,000 Americans were injured or killed by gun violence, including more than 50 mass shootings. Our national narrative has been stuck for the last several decades in a cycle of shock, grief, and political stalemate. The Washington Post recently published a report titled “Terror on Repeat: A rare look at the devastation caused by AR-15 shootings.”

According to the paper’s executive editor, Sally Buzbee, the project aimed to “advance the public’s understanding of mass killers’ increasing use of this readily available weapon…while being sensitive to victims’ families and communities directly affected by AR-15 shootings.” The Washington Post hoped to help readers understand “the full scope of an AR-15’s destructive power.”

“I can smell this photo,” says a military veteran and graduate student at the University of Chicago’ after reviewing a photo of a blood-stained classroom taken after the Robb Elementary School shooting in Uvalde, Texas. 9 students and two teachers were killed with an AR-style weapon. By publishing “Terror on Repeat,” the Post turned what is unimaginable for many readers into a gut-wrenching, foul-smelling reality for all.

But to what effect? Some will agree that publishing crime scene photos from mass

shootings serves a legitimate public interest: Americans have the right to be fully informed about significant events—mass shootings included—when they have far-reaching consequences. Some will argue that such graphic reporting best conveys the severity and magnitude of the incidents, providing a more realistic portrayal of the impact on individuals and the community. They will say that reporting like “Terror on Repeat” can foster a sense of urgency for addressing underlying issues related to gun violence better than photos of anguished students. Newtown, and Nashville.

The problem we face is not a lack of understanding, but rather a lack of hope. Researchers found that while crisis messaging like that featured in “Terror on Repeat” can effectively raise a sense of urgency, this type of messaging can also make the situation appear hopeless. By regularly highlighting problems and leaving out responses to them, journalists and policy communicators run the risk of conveying a false sense that people haven’t tried to fix things, or don’t know how to do any better.

Americans are psychologically numb to gun violence, and the type of reporting seen in “terror on repeat” can make the hopeless even more despondent.

Further, this type of reporting risks providing a kindling for imitation mass violence. In his 2016 book Columbine, Dave Cullen warned the media about its complicity in providing fodder for potential mass shooters’ idolization of violence. By focusing on the “savage nature” of these crimes, Cullen argues, the media allowed shooters to crack the code for their own desire for notoriety.

“If we care about ending this,” he continues, “we in the media need to see our role as clearly as the perps have. We didn’t start this, nor have we pulled any triggers... We supply the audience, they provide the show.”

We have no time to waste in supporting the growing community of survivors. We also believe that if crime scenes won’t mobilize us, perhaps more human-centered, evidence-informed, and solutions-driven storytelling might. Through this type of storytelling, we can build solidarity with communities most impacted by gun violence and meaningfully activate readers to enact effective gun violence prevention strategies.

Contextualizing the landscape of gun violence across the country promises to shift the conversation in a helpful direction. Gen Z readers in particular are hungry for data and historical context to understand thelandscape of gun violence. Focusing on mass shootings enables us to understand the destructive impact of AR-style rifles but situating them in the broader context of gun violence allows us to identify the systemic patterns and failures that have allowed violence to ravage all of our communities, especially communities of color.Refocusing media coverage and policy discussions on evidence-based solutions

and interventions that have proven effective in reducing gun violence. While “Terror on Repeat” highlights a “broader pattern of violence” it doesn’t illuminate the factors that led to this pattern.

By highlighting how we got here and what works, journalists and policy communicators can help steer the conversation toward actionable strategies. Framing the conversation around solutions has the bonus of bridging ideological divides and fostering bipartisan cooperation. By emphasizing common goals such as public safety and community well-being, stakeholders from across the political spectrum can come together to support initiatives that effectively reduce gun violence. At the very least, this framing gives readers the permission to make equal space for their collective grief and wellearned desire to understand the facts of how we got here and where we could be headed.

Changing the national conversation about gun violence will not happen overnight, by refocusing attention on evidence-based solutions and amplifying the voices of those most affected, journalists and policy communicators can play a crucial role in driving meaningful change. By highlighting what works and by fostering more constructive dialogue, we can move toward a future where gun violence is no longer such a commonplace tragedy in the United States.

America is Leading the Global Arms Trade, but at What Cost?

THIS ARTICLE WAS WRITTEN ANONYMOUSLY

For decades, America’s war-profiteering companies have pocketed billions of dollars by selling weapons that directly fuel ethnic cleansings and genocides globally. The United States is home to four of the five largest private arms companies in the world: Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrup Grumman, and Raytheon. These firms, which make up most of the country’s arms sales and profits, promote warfare by capitalizing on conflict. The U.S. accounts for more than 40% of the planet’s weapons exports. $100 to $200 billion U.S. dollars are pocketed in arms sales each year, and that number is gradually increasing year over year.

Amid the humanitarian crisis and genocide going on in Gaza right now,

the U.S. is promoting the sale of American ammunition to Israel while ignoring international calls for a cease-fire.

In December alone, President Biden approved two of the largest arms sales ever issued, one worth $106 million and another worth $147.5 million. It is imperative that we examine who is profiting from these deals and who is bearing the cost.

Advocates of weapons manufacturing

often portray the arms industry as the savior of democracy that prioritizes global security. This industry, however, has an extensive network of lobbyists and experts who spend millions of dollars each year to strengthen their business interests, influence defense policies, and sanitize their brand images. In the past two decades, the weapons industry has spent $2.5 billion dollars lobbying the Pentagon, Congress, the State Department, and the White House, while donating millions to candidates across various political parties. With this concentrated lobbying power, these companies have expanded U.S. weapons sales to as many international clients as possible—without much regulation.

We have a dire need for transparency and regulation in America’s international arms trade policy. Anti-war activists have accused Boeing of being responsible for human rights violations: in 2016, Boeing’s bombs were used to kill 107 Yemenis in a marketplace, precision-guided missiles made by Boeing have been used on Palestinians for years, its fighter jets are sold to the Indian army that is occupying and colonizing Kashmir, and the list goes on. The U.S. claims it has checks and balances, such as the Leahy Law, which is in place to stop foreign countries from using American weapons to commit war crimes.

In addition to promoting warfare globally, America’s arms companies consume millions of tax dollars each year to make weapons. These taxpayer dollars could instead go toward funding pressing issues across low-income communities in the country. Returning to the Boeing example, in 2012, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel shut down 50% of Chicago’s mental health clinics and instead invested $1.3 million tax dollars into Boeing’s headquarters. Weapons manufacturing companies work hand in hand with the U.S. government as the Pentagon’s largest contractors while marketing themselves as commercial firms that promote economic growth within communities. In reality, most of Boeing’s revenue comes from making and selling missiles, bombs, and other weapons of mass destruction. It is crucial for cities across the country to stop investing in war and reallocate funding to life-improving programs for their constituents.

Spending on arms deals internationally is also not as beneficial to the U.S. economy as previously assumed by analysts. The executives at companies like Boeing continue to push the agenda that their company invests in jobs and innovative technology. However, the number of jobs associated with weapons sales is significantly overstated. According to the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a Washington-based think-tank, spending on defense produces 40% fewer jobs than spending on infrastructure and clean energy.

The public can use their voices to push local administration to divest from war and redirect resources back into local communities. People can join anti-war

organizations, local protests (such as the ones organized by Pal Action), community organizing spaces, and divestment campaigns in cities and at universities (such as BoeingArmsGenocide). At the University of Chicago, UChicago United and UChicago Divest are student organizations working towards these goals of disarmament and divestment.

Right now, Boeing’s American-made Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) are being used by Israel to execute deadly airstrikes that wipe out homes, hospitals, and schools. On October 10, 2023, two JDAM bombs killed 43 Palestinians. As the bombardment of Gaza continues, there is mounting evidence that U.S.-made weapons are being used to kill and suppress people.

It is critical that the United States stop manufacturing weapons of mass destruction. While that fight will not be an easy one to win immediately, the U.S. must at least install effective risk assessments to evaluate foreign governments’ human rights standings for all international commercial and government-to-government arms deals. The more the U.S. continues to spend money on exporting weapons, the less it can spend on improving communities within its own country.

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BEYOND BORDERS & BUDGETS: CHICAGO’S PATH TO COMPASSION AMIDST THE MIGRANT CRISIS

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THE FUTURE OF FOOD AID: LOOKING AT THE EGYPT CASE

Abay, Kibrom, Lina Abdelfattah, Clemens Breisinger, Joseph Glauber and David Laborde

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CHICAGO’S PATH TO FAIRER ELECTIONS: EMBRACING RANKEDCHOICE VOTING

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THE RISE OF DIGITAL LENDING

Cornelli, G., Frost, J., Gambacorta, L., Rau, P. R., Wardrop, R., & Ziegler, T. (2023). Fintech and big tech credit: Drivers of the growth of digital lending.

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THE EU’S DEMOCRACY CHALLENGE –AND OPPORTUNITY

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Behr, Rafael. “How Remain Failed: The Iinside Story of a Doomed Campaign.” The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, July 5, 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/05/how-remainfailed-inside-story-doomed-campaign

Campos, Nauro F., Fabrizio Coricelli, and Luigi Moretti. “Institutional Integration and Economic Growth in Europe.” Journal of Monetary Economics 103 (2019): 88–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.08.001

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CHICAGO POLICY REVIEW

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Gagliarducci, Stefano, Tommaso Nannicini, and Paolo Naticchioni. “Electoral Rules and Politicians’ Behavior: A Micro Test.” American Economic Review

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Gijs, Camille. “Europeans Back Direct Election of Commission President: Poll.” POLITICO, April 27, 2022. https:// www.politico.eu/article/europeans-in-favor-of-electing-european-commission-president-poll/

Gotev, Georgi. “Juncker Regrets Not Intervening in Brexit Referendum Campaign.” www.euractiv.com, May 8, 2019. https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/juncker-regrets-not-having-interfered-in-brexit-referendum-campaign/

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Eric Linhart, Eric, Johannes Raabem and Patrick Statsch. “Mixed-member proportional electoral systems – the best of both worlds?” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 29 (1) (2019): 21-40. 10.1080/17457289.2018.1443464.

Maishman, Elsa. “Eva Kaili: Senior EU Lawmaker Arrested over Alleged Bribery by Gulf State.” BBC News. BBC, December 10, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/ world-europe-63921002.

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Neuhold, Christine. “Democratic Deficit in the European Union.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics (2020). https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.1141

“The Role of European Union Accession in Democratisation Processes.” Democratic Progress Institute, November 24, 2020. https://www.democraticprogress. org/publications/research/the-role-of-european-union-accession-in-democratisation-processes/.

Stoeckel, Florian. “What Do Europeans Know about the EU before They Go to the Polls?” London School of Economics, May 22, 2019.

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Wesel, Barbara. “In the End, It Was a Backroom Deal.” dw.com. Deutsche Welle, July 3, 2019. https://www.dw.com/ en/opinion-in-the-end-it-was-a-backroom-deal/a-49449976.

Wheaton, Sarah. “EU Moves toward Russian Lobbyist Ban.” POLITICO, June 22, 2022. https://www.politico.eu/article/ eu-russia-lobbyist-ban/.

Wires, News. “’Qatargate’: European Parliament VP Eva Kaili Stripped of Role amid Corruption Scandal.” France 24, December 13, 2022. https://www.france24. com/en/europe/20221213-european-parliament-moves-to-strip-vp-role-fromlawmaker-accused-of-corruption.

Zalan, Eszter. “Parliament Elections Unlikely to Include EU-Wide MEP Candidates.” EUobserver, October 24, 2022. https://euobserver.com/eu-political/156328.

CHICAGO

TEACHERS WANTED: A NATIONWIDE STAFFING CRISIS IMPACTS ILLINOIS

“Advance Illinois Report: Illinois Educator Workforce Growing but Key Challenges in the Pipeline Persist”. Advance Illinois, October 12, 2023. https://www. advanceillinois.org/news-media/press-releases/sh7o6ahtrn9k8l5iqqqxi9stpdbm5v

“Fully Funding the Evidence-Based Formula: FY 2023 Enacted General Fund Budget”. Center for Tax and Budget Accountability, June 20, 2022. https://www. ctbaonline.org/reports/fully-funding-evidence-based-formula-volume-v

Illinois State Board of Education, Illinois Association of Regional Superintendent of Schools, Illinois Workforce and Education Research Collaborative, Goshen Consulting, ROE LeadHUBS. (2024). Educator Shortage Report: Academic Year 20232024. https://iarss.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/IWERC-Educator-Shortage-AY24.pdf

Illinois State Board of Education, Illinois Association of Regional Superintendent of Schools, Illinois Workforce and Education Research Collaborative, Goshen Consulting, ROE LeadHUBS. (2024). Educator Shortage Survey: Academic Year 2022-2023. https://iarss.org/wp-content/ uploads/2023/01/IARSS-Educator-Shortage-AY23-230123.pdf

Lieberman, Mark. “How School Staffing Shortages Are Hurting Students”. EducationWeek, June 15, 2022. https:// www.edweek.org/leadership/whos-atrisk-when-schools-staffing-shortages-persist/2022/06

Miletich, Mike. “Three New Illinois Laws Could Tackle Teacher Shortage Through Incentives”. WAND, June 30, 2023. https://www.wandtv.com/news/ three-new-illinois-laws-could-tackleteacher-shortage-through-incentives/article_304f157e-1795-11ee-a597-67affcc9b867.html

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“Moving Forward: Illinois’ Evidence Based School Funding Formula Can Reverse Decades of Inequity Created by the Foundation Formula It Replaced.” Center for Tax and Budget Accountability, October 10, 2018. https://www.ctbaonline. org/reports/moving-forward-illinois-evidence-based-school-funding-formula-can-reverse-decades-inequity

“New Report: Illinois Public Schools Remain Severely Under-Resourced Despite Funding Reform Law”. Education Law Center, September 27, 2022. https:// edlawcenter.org/new-report-illinois-public-schools-remain-severely-under-resourced-despite-funding-reform-law/

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SIMMONS ON IMPLEMENTING THE NATION’S FIRST

GOVERNMENT FUNDED

REPARARATIONS PROGRAM

Establishing a City of Evanston Funding Source Devoted to Local Reparations, Pub. L. No. 126- R-19 (2019). https:// www.cityofevanston.org/government/ transparency/resolutions-archive/-folder-2721.

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NO ADULT LEFT BEHIND: AUTOMATION, JOB LOSS, AND EDUCATION POLICY

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Holzer, H. J. “Understanding the Impact of Automation on workers, jobs, and Wages.” Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/ articles/understanding-the-impact-of-automation-on-workers-jobs-and-wages/

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THE FUTURE OF MEDICARE DRUG PRICE NEGOTIATION AND

CEUTICAL INNOVATION

PHARMA-

Abrams, A., & Park, A. (2020, March 19). 10 Years Later, Obamacare’s Complicated Legacy Continues. Time. https://time. com/5806188/obamacare-anniversary/

Constantino, A. K. (2023, June 13). Eli Lilly CEO says Medicare price negotiations could harm drug development. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/13/ eli-lilly-medicare-price-negotiations-could-harm-drug-development-. html

Dunleavy, K. (2023, July 12). Merck applies more pressure against IRA, asking for decision without trial in fight with US government. Fierce Pharma. https://www. fiercepharma.com/pharma/merck-appliesmore-legal-pressure-against-ira-askingdecision-without-trial

FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration Announces First Ten Drugs Selected for Medicare Price Negotiation. (2023, August 29). The White House. https:// www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/ statements-releases/2023/08/29/ fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-first-ten-drugs-selected-for-medicare-price-negotiation/

Government Price Setting Has Potentially Devastating Consequences for Patients. (n.d.). PhRMA. https://phrma.org/pricesetting

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Manalac, T. (2023, October 2). Federal Judge Denies Request to Block Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program. BioSpace. https://www.biospace. com/article/federal-judge-denies-request-to-block-medicare-drug-price-negotiation-program/

Pecorin, A. (2022, August 12). Democrats pass major health, climate and tax bill along party lines; Biden signing next week. ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/democrats-pass-health-climate-taxbill-party-lines/story?id=88314105

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Watts, B., & Mahoney, K. (2023, July 12). Why We’re Suing HHS, CMS to Challenge Illegal Price Controls. U.S. Chamber of Commerce. https://www.uschamber.com/ lawsuits/why-were-suing-hhs-and-cmsto-challenge-illegal-price-controls

GOVERNOR MARK GORDON ON RURAL AMERICA, CLIMATE POLICY, AND THE FUTURE OF WYOMING

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Dance, Gabriel J. X., and Michael Forsythe. 2023. “Across U.S., Chinese Bitcoin Mines Draw National Security Scrutiny.” The New York Times, October 13, 2023, sec. U.S. https://www.nytimes. com/2023/10/13/us/bitcoin-mines-chinaunited-states.html.

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Jean, Renee. 2023. “Wyoming-Based Custodia Brings Secure Bitcoin Storage to Wyoming, Other States.” Cowboystatedaily.com. November 20, 2023. https:// cowboystatedaily.com/2023/11/20/wyoming-based-custodia-brings-secure-bitcoin-storage-to-wyoming-other-states/.

“Madden: The Catch-22 That’s Bankrupting Wyoming.” 2021. Wyoming Tribune Eagle. February 13, 2021. https://www.wyomingnews.com/ opinion/guest_column/madden-thecatch-22-that-s-bankrupting-wyoming/ article_6efbd943-ec4a-5f62-ab24-2c08d5f62ccc.html.

Milton, Immanual John. 2023. “Wyoming’s Crypto-Friendly Aspirations Are Colliding with Economic Reality.” Bloomberg.com, September 5, 2023. https://www.bloomberg.com/ news/articles/2023-09-05/wyoming-s-crypto-friendly-aspirations-are-colliding-with-economic-reality?embedded-checkout=true.

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CHICAGO

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN WORRIES FOCUS ON THE MILITARY, FOR GOOD REASON

Bushatz, Amy. 2021. “How a Government Shutdown Impacts Military Pay, Benefits.” Military.com. December 6, 2021. https://www.military.com/ daily-news/2018/01/18/how-government-shutdown-would-impact-pay-benefits.html.

Grayer, Jeremy Herb,Manu Raju,Melanie Zanona,Lauren Fox,Annie. 2023. “Why McCarthy Decided to Take on His Right Flank and Prevent the Shutdown | CNN Politics.” CNN. October 1, 2023. https:// www.cnn.com/2023/10/01/politics/mccarthy-government-spending-fight.

“Kiggans Seeks to Pay U.S. Troops during Possible Government Shutdown.” 2023. Jen Kiggans. September 22, 2023. https:// kiggans.house.gov/posts/kiggans-seeksto-pay-u-s-troops-during-possible-government-shutdown.

Lizann. 2016. “The Real Reason the Military Moves so Much - Seasoned Spouse.” November 4, 2016. https://seasonedspouse.com/real-reason-military-movesso-much/.

BANKRUPT BALLCARRIERS? HOW NFL POLICY HELPS LIMIT RUNNING BACK EARNINGS

ESPN. 2023. “Star RBs Meet on Zoom to Talk State of Position.” ESPN.Com. July 23, 2023. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38058656/star-nfl-rbs-meet-zoomtalk-state-position.

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Stuart, Chase. 2022. “The Fall (And Smaller Rise) Of Running Back By Committee In The NFL.” Football Perspective Sta. June 6, 2022. https://www.footballperspective.com/the-fall-and-smaller-riseof-running-back-by-committee-in-the-nfl/

Data Visualizations by Yufei Liu, Director of Data Visualization, Chicago Policy Review

WE DON’T NEED MORE ‘TERROR ON REPEAT’

Archibald, John. 2023. “Archibald: The Little Girl in the Nashville School Bus Is All of Us.” Al. March 28, 2023. https://www.al.com/news/2023/03/whatthe-little-face-in-nashvilles-school-bussays-about-america.html.

Buzbee, Sally. 2023. “Why We Are Publishing Disturbing Content from AR15 Mass Shootings.” Washington Post, November 16, 2023, sec. National. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/11/16/about-ar-15-graphic-content/.

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Foster-Frau, Silvia, N. Kirkpatrick, and Arelis R. Hernández. 2023. “Terror on Repeat: A Rare Look at the Devastation Caused by AR-15 Shootings.” Washington Post, November 16, 2023. https:// www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2023/ar-15-force-mass-shootings/.

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Kimberly Garcia [@kim_amerie]. 2023. “Please , Please Do Not Share the Washington Post. My Daughter Being Taken from This World Wasn’t Fair to Begin with, It’s Not Fair How She Was Taken Either. Amerie, Her Classmates, & Her Teachers Don’t Deserve This.” Tweet. Twitter. https://twitter.com/kim_amerie/ status/1725144190722392188.

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CHICAGO POLICY REVIEW

Ura, Alexa. 2022. “Uvalde Buries 10-YearOld Amerie Jo Garza, the First of Many Funerals to Come.” The Texas Tribune, May 31, 2022. https://www.texastribune. org/2022/05/31/uvalde-amerie-jo-garza-funerals/.

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Vasi, Ion Bogdan, and Michael Macy. 2003. “The Mobilizer’s Dilemma: Crisis, Empowerment, and Collective Action.” Social Forces 81 (3): 979–98.

AMERICA IS LEADING THE GLOBAL ARMS TRADE, BUT AT WHAT COST?

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Auble, Dan. “Capitalizing on Conflict: How Defense Contractors and Foreign Nations Lobby for Arms Sales.” OpenSecrets, February 25, 2021. https://www. opensecrets.org/news/reports/capitalizing-on-conflict/defense-contractors.

“Boeing Kills with Chicago Bills.” Rampant. Rampant, January 3, 2022. https:// rampantmag.com/2022/01/boeing-killswith-chicago-bills/.

“Chaos in Gaza as Desperation Grows as Aid Falls Short.” NBCNews.com, December 10, 2023.

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CLOSING NOTE

DAVID CHRISINGER, ISABEAU DASHO, & MATTHEW FLEMING

THE WRITING WORKSHOP

UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO HARRIS SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY

AUTHORED BY ISABEAU DASHO

When I was locked down in a small apartment during the early days of the pandemic, my friends and family suggested that I take up puzzles. By nature, I’m not “into” puzzles, but sufficiently convinced that I wasn’t taking their advice, they began to send me puzzles. As I took up this new hobby that had been forced upon me, I couldn’t help but hope for the picturesque landscape or reprint of a famous painting advertised on the box to simply do itself. I knew the picture, so what was the point sifting and sorting through the chaos of its contents?

For a long time, my thinking on policy solutions looked like this too. If we know guns are the number one killer of American children, then why can’t we do something about it? But when you read Megan Sanders and David Chrisinger’s piece, the complexity of gun violence is never minimized; each obstacle—from psychic numbing to the current approach to reporting on these heinous acts—is individuated to reveal new solutions. Arnoldo Ayala’s compassionate and searing “Beyond Borders and Budgets” breaks down the convoluted morass of the immigration system, or, Joshilyn Binkley’s “The Future of Food Aid: Looking at the Egypt case,” which explores the global food aid crisis that arose after the Russian invasion of Ukraine—the world’s critical breadbasket. Nico Johnson’s interview about the nation’s first government-funded reparations program is proof that even our oldest and thorniest problems are never beyond the reach of smart policy solutions.

The brilliant students at the Chicago Policy Review are focused on complex and multifaceted solutions that reckon with all the pieces, and this year’s print edition represents the best of their ideas. The world is built on an intricate and delicate web of trade, immigration, negotiation, and human capital; any tug or breakdown can send ripple effects through the whole system, imperiling us all. The stakes have never felt higher, but these leaders leave us with so much hope. They see the puzzle pieces scattered about and painstakingly collect, shuffle, and reorder them. The Chicago Policy Review is special because their puzzles aren’t done in isolation, and the solutions they propose aren’t meant to stay in a vacuum. These young leaders are collaborative by necessity, and while the problems they are working on are intricate, they are not intractable. It takes time and patience to solve puzzles, and often, it will take more of us than we realize to get the job done. But these writers—these leaders—are showing us the way.

The Chicago Policy Review is a policy journal written, managed, and published entirely by graduate students at the University of Chicago. Our goal is to explain complex policy issues, bridging the gap between public policy researchers and society. We believe that clear, informative policy writing can improve our world.

Support our organization by donating to our student budget.Use the QR code below linked to the Harris school donation page. Select “I’d like to enter my own designation” and enter the “Chicago Policy Review” to donate any amount you wish to give,

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