PE – North West Europe General Outlook
Spot Monthly Prices Local Market
PE prices retreat further in January
(FD NWE €/ton) Polymer
Highlights PE January business closed with reductions of €20-40/ton Jan monomer contract price down €40/ton Spot ethylene gained about €45/ton PE demand revived in second half Jan Supply remains ample LLDPE breaks €1000/ton threshold PE February prices expected stable to firmer
Prices
HDPE Film
1100 - 1180
HDPE BM
1080 - 1180
HDPE Inj.
1080 - 1160
LDPE Film
1000 - 1100
LLDPE C4 Film
990 - 1090
Feedstocks Crude Oil WTI USD/bbl
Crude Oil Brent USD/bbl
Naphtha CFR Japan
Naphtha CIF NWE
19-04
53
62
490
459
19-03
52
61
494
461
General Outlook
19-02
51
60
475
455
In North West Europe, initial offers for January PE were issued with reductions of €20-40/ton versus December prices, due to the drop of €40/ton on the monomer contract price for January, settled at €985/ton. In the spot market the monomer lost initially some ground but inverted the trend by midJanuary, finding support from the upstream costs and a bullish Asian market. The overall monthly gain for the spot ethylene since the end of December is about €45/ton, touching €795-800/ton at the end of January. After a slow start, PE demand recovered when many large-scale buyers considered whether to buy or not some extra cargoes ahead of rumors about a possible rebound in the near term. LLDPE prices, meanwhile, broke the €1000/ton threshold for the first time in years, pulled down by lower January ethylene contracts and weak fundamentals on top of available imports from US. No major production issue for PE to be reported, although FM was declared at 2 crackers in Italy and Germany. January deals were closed with decreases of €20-40/ton compared to the previous month. February expectations for PE prices are mainly centered on a stable to firmer trend. Players feel that PE prices have reached the bottom level after a stable to softer trend that started in early June 2018.
19-01
47
56
449
441
18-52
45
52
463
442
500
65
490
60
480
55
470
50
460
45
450 440
40
430
35
420
30 24/12
31/12
07/01
14/01
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S H A N G H A I
| K U A L A
L U M P U R
21/01
Week Start Date Crude Oil - WTI USD/bbl
Crude Oil - Brent USD/bbl
Naphtha CFR - Japan
Naphtha CIF - NWE
Ethylene Monomer Spot Wk. N. 19-05
CFR-FEA Weekly 1040
FD-USG Average 390
FD-NWE (USD/ton) 910
19-04
1010
410
900
19-03
890
420
880
19-02
870
400
850
19-01
920
400
840
Abbreviations: NWE: Northwest Europe, USG: United States Gulf, FEA: Far East Asia Note: Indicative prices are given based on latest available figures. Prices are translated to USD/mton and with the exception of naphtha have been rounded to the nearest ten. Crude and naphtha prices represent weekly averages up to the date of publication.
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Crude Oil USD/bbl
Wk. N.
Naphtha USD/mton
January 2019
Monthly Report
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M O S C O W